Play on Game #701 Chicago Bulls (Monday, 7:05 PM EST)
I backed the 76ers on Saturday night and they still couldn't get a win or cover against an Orlando team that was playing without their starting center and were playing their 4th game in 5 nights. I have no reason to think they can hang around in this game.
The Bulls are coming off a loss as a 9 point home favorite against the T'Wolves. What made it worse is they didn't score a single point in overtime. Maybe the team was gassed after their won against the Thunder. Well, they have had a day to rest and considering the fact they don't play again until Friday night, I expect a 110% effort tonight and one that they will cover the spread as the players and the head coach are embarrassed about the home loss to Minnesota.
Talent edges: Chicago has the better players at every position. The only position that might be in question would be Okafor down low for Philly, but the Bulls have a deep bench with frontcourt players, Noah and Gibson. Chicago can create mismatches in this game as well with Mirotic and McDermott who are both big guys that can play on the perimeter. This will bring Philly's big guys out of the paint.
Derrick Rose described Saturday's game as 'the worst you could possibly play". Sunday was spent watching film and working on communicating more on plays. Mirotic stayed long after practice on Sunday to work on his jumper. Mirotic is 0-8 from the 3 point line in the last two games and 2-for-13 from the floor. Look for his offense to wake up and spark the team on Monday.
Philly is now 0-5 ATS their last 5 home games as a single digit homedog.
Play on Game #452 Pittsburgh Steelers (Sunday, 1:00 PM EST)
The situation favors the Steelers on Sunday. Also we have a favorable line as it opened up Pittsburgh -7, then dropped to -4, mainly because of the injury to Leveon Bell. DeAngelo Williams is a reliable back up back. He is averaging 4.9 yards a carry on the season, the same as Bell. He has also caught 10 of his 12 targets out the backfield.
Oakland is playing an early start time and that does not fare well with them in the past. They are 2-8 SU/ATS their last 8 road games vs. the AFC North. Last time they played Pittsburgh at Heinz Field was in 2010 when they were a 7 point dog and lost 35-3. Oakland did score a win against the Browns earlier this season as a 3.5 point dog, but Cleveland is not Pittsburgh, let's make no mistake about it.
The Steelers at 4-4 are in dire need of a convincing win. They are 2-0 SU and ATS this season at home vs. West Coast teams (San Fran, Arizona).
The Raiders defense is still the typical Raider defense. They are giving up 302 pass yards a game; not good facing a high powered passing attack of Pittsburgh. I expect Roethlisberger to be much crisper with his passes this week.
Defensively, the Steelers are only giving up 18.4 ppg. The Raiders are giving up 24.7 ppg. The Steelers have not allowed more than 20 points at home this season. The Raiders have given up at least 20 points in all of their road games this year.
The Saints are not allowed to lay this many points, not even to the Titans. The reason being is that the Saints defense is horrific. They are ranked 31st in the NFL giving up 406 yards a game. There is no part of their defense that is good. Their run defense is giving up 4.8 yards a carry. The pass defense is giving up 8.4 yards an attempt (30th in NFL). Rob Ryan will be given the boot after the season, or maybe sooner.
The Titans come into this game with the much better defense. They are ranked 5th overall in total defense. Against the pass they are ranked 3rd only giving up 198 yards a game and against the run, the Titans are better also giving up 4.3 yards a carry only. So we are getting the better defense no questions asked.
Are the Saints a better offensive team? Well yes, at times they look better but Brees is coming off a record setting performance and I like to look to fade quarterbacks off record setting games.
The truth about New Orleans is that they are 3-1 at home this season with the wins coming by 3,6, and 10 points. The loss was as a 9.5 point favorite to Tampa Bay. The 10 point win was against Atlanta on a Thursday Night game where they stepped up to face their rivals. Atlanta had some costly turnovers or the game would have been closer. The 6 point win came in overtime against Dallas who had Brandon Weeden has QB . Then last week they blew a lead and got lucky to win by 3 points against the Giants.
Enter Tennessee who fired their head coach this week, thank goodness. Now there is hope for the Titans as the players are excited for Mike Mularkey getting promoted to head coach as well as new play caller Jason Michael. Michael has said that he is going to make some changes with the play calling. Mariota will be back this week and he said that he is going to make some plays that fit Mariota's style of play better and there will be changes made on 3rd downs as well with the offensive line. The Titans locker room says they fully support Mularkey and Michael and I look for them to leave it all on the field this Sunday.
Also the Titans will be getting starting cornerback Perrish Cox back this week. While it is unknown if Jason McCourty will dress for the Titans, at least they are getting Cox back.
The Saints are banged up on defense. Damian Swann has not practiced this week nor have three of their linebackers. Willie Snead is also nursing a knee injury along with left tackle Willie Armstead.
Play on Game #461 Washington Redskins (Sunday, 1:00 PM EST)
The Redskins are well rested coming off a bye week. The Patriots have had a few extra days since playing last Thursday, but a full extra week to prepare benefits the Redskins in this game.
The Patriots are undefeated as we all know. With going undefeated means higher point spreads. The Pats have won at home this year by 7, 34, 7, and 29. Two of their 4 wins have been by single digits. The Jets gave them all they could handle. The Steelers actually outgained the Patriots in their season opener without LeVeon Bell and Martavis Bryant.
New England has a game on deck vs. the Giants, a team they have lost their last three games against, two of them being in the Super Bowl. There is no need for New England to blow out Washington in this game. They would rather make sure their team is healthy for next week vs. the Giants. Plus there is a strong look-ahead angle here.
Double digit favorites in the NFL this season are 2-3 ATS going into this week. They are not a winning proposition. In 2014, double digit home favorites went 9-11-2 ATS, another losing proposition. The Patriots are 7-13 ATS their last 20 home games as a double digit home favorite, including just 3-6 ATS their last 9.
The Redskins are 3-1 ATS their last 4 games as a double digit road dog. This is the most points they have gotten since the 2007 season.
New England is ranked 21st defending the run. The Redskins can run the ball and they can take time off the clock. The Redskins have a solid offensive line only giving up a sack on 3% of their drop backs. Brady is getting sacked on 9% of his drop backs. Much of that is because two starters on the O-Line are out.
DeSean Jackson is optimistic he will play in this game. Jackson makes this offense much better and effective all around. The Redskins will then have their full arsenal of receivers now with Jordan Reed also being healthy. The Redskins are also expect to get either DeAngelo Hall or Culliver back in the secondary.
The bye week came at a good time for Washington. They have confidence at being 3-3 on the season after rallying to beat the Bucs. Also the extra week appears to be a huge benefit as Jackson appears to be ready to play.
Play on Game #713 Memphis Grizzlies (Saturday, 9:05 PM EST)
Memphis has started off the season at a disappointing 3-3 as two of their losses have come as a favorite. This is a seasoned veteran team and they have responded off each loss with a win now which is one reason why I am going to play them here tonight as the Grizzlies lost Thursday night at Portland.
The Grizzlies lost by 30 to the Cavs. They came back on the road to beat Indiana by 9 points. They then got mud-ducked by 50 at Golden State and came back to beat Sac by 14. That sets the stage for this game after Memphis lost by 19 to Portland on Thursday night. I fully expect them to come back with a win over a Utah team that is offensively challenged.
A few takes on the Grizzlies last game vs. Portland. The Grizzlies shot a respectable 48% from the floor. The problem was Portland's backcourt that hit 11-for-17 from the three point line as Lilliard and McCollum are one of the top backcourts in the NBA. Utah doesn't have a backcourt that will scare anybody. Utah lost by 16 to Portland at home on Wednesday night to support that. Utah shot 37.5% only against Portland at home. So these teams have faced one common opponent in Portland. Memphis shot 48% while Utah shot only 37.5% which tells me that Memphis has the edge for this game.
Homecourt doesn't matter in this series as the road team is 5-0 SU the last 5 meetings. Take Memphis to get the cover.
Play on Game #705 Washington Wizards (Saturday, 7:35 PM EST)
Big revenge for the Wizards after losing in 6 games last year in the playoffs to the Hawks. The Wizards didn't have John Wall for much of that series and when he did play he wasn't 100%. The Wizards are 3-0 SU on the road this season. I like the direction this Wizards teams is heading.
The Hawks are playing their 4th game in 5 nights and trying to start the season undefeated so the pressure is on. The Hawks are a lock for the playoffs this season. The Wizards have something to prove.
While the Wizards lost last night, they don't have consecutive losses on the season. The loss to the Celtics didn't surprise me as they were looking ahead to this game. The Wizards starters only played 130 minutes last night, so they should have plenty left in the tank for this matchup.
The Hawks got outscored last night is 3 of the 4 quarters against the Pelicans, so that is a cause for concern also entering this game along with the fact that their starters logged 162 minutes. Atlanta is 1-3 ATS their last 4 home games when playing on a back to back. The underdog is 11-5-3 ATS the last 19 meetings. Take the Wizards to get the cover.
Memphis is unbeaten and here is another team sitting fat and happy and looking forward to next week's game against Houston which has big implications on who will possibly win the AAC, not to mention who will be bragging about being the best team in the AAC and probably will have a Top 10 ranking to boast. Not only is this a look-ahead game against Houston, but it is a revenge game for Memphis from last season when Houston gave them one of their three losses on the season.
Navy is 6-1 on the season and 4-0 in the conference. Their only loss was to Notre Dame this year. The difference in Notre Dame and Memphis is the fact that Notre Dame has a defense that is 70 yards a game better than Memphis. Memphis also doesn't have to face Navy every year like Notre Dame does, thus putting them at a disadvantage because they are not used to facing teams that run the triple option.
I will also note that this Memphis defense is not nearly as good as they were last year. This defense has regressed by 7 points a game and 70 yards a game from last year. The front 7 is extremely inexperienced in my opinion and it will show when trying to stop Navy who has the #4 rushing attack in the nation at 319.7 yards a game. Navy has a senior quarterback in Keenan Reynolds who has broke almost all of the school records at Navy and is chasing down Montee Ball for the career leader in touchdowns in FBS.
The recipe to beat Memphis is to be able to run the ball, convert on 3rd downs, and to keep Paxton Lynch off the field. Navy has the offense to do that. They also have the defense to hold Memphis below their season averages.
Navy is 8-2 ATS their last 10 games as a road underdog of 7+ points. The two spread losses were against Notre Dame, so take Notre Dame out of the equation and Navy is a PERFECT 8-0 ATS as a road underdog in their last 8 games when getting 7 or more points. This includes three games where they won straight up as a road dog of 8.5, 9.5, and 12 points. Take Navy to get the cover.
Play on Game #704 Philadelphia 76ers (Saturday, 7:05 PM EST)
The Magic are now 5-0 ATS on the season and I had them being a much improved team this year, but the problem tonight is that they are playing in a role reversal role. Orlando is only 4-6 SU and 3-7 ATS as a road favorite since 2012. The Magic won straight up last night as a homedog and now will be a road favorite.
One advantage I see for Philly in this game is that Okafor and Noel will have an advantage with Orlando's stud center, Nikola Vucevic, expected to miss. Another factor is that Orlando had to rally in the 4th quarter to beat Toronto last night and I don't think they have much left in the tank as this is their 4th game in 5 nights. Travelling on the road makes this much tougher. Also, the fact that Vucevic's replacement Dedmon, played 30 minutes and he might wear down in this game along with the fact that Payton is really struggling from the floor for the Magic as well.
Philly did go 3-0 ATS last year vs. Orlando. They played the Magic at home once and lost by 2. Both teams are better this year than when they played that game last year. But looking at that game last year, the 76ers has a totally different starting 5 as they have now. I like the way Philly has fought hard twice against Cleveland and took Milwaukee down to the wire also. This is a team that is hungry for a win. I think they get it tonight but all we need is a cover. Take the points with Philly.
Play on Game #347 Cincinnati Bearcats (Saturday, 3:30 PM EST)
Houston comes into this game a spotless 8-0 SU on the season and are getting all the national spotlight. Guess what...They play another current unbeaten team next week in Memphis. Think they are looking ahead to that game? You betcha, and I am betting they are looking dead ahead to that game.
Enter the Cincinnati Bearcats, a team that has beaten Houston the last two years and has put up 500 and 593 yards in these two games. The Bearcats are coming off two dominating performances also on offense outgaining UCF by 413 yards and UConn by 346 yards. I know these are bottom tier offenses, but they are still dominant nevertheless. Cincinnati has outgained 7 of their 8 opponents this season. The only game they lost the stats in was @ BYU as they got outgained by 108 yards, but actually were in control the first three quarters. After the loss to BYU, Tubberville gave the keys to the car back to Gunner Kiel who has passed for 7 TD and 0 INT in the last two games. (He went 15-for-15 against UCF last week).
This also a Cincinnati team that went head up with an unbeaten Memphis team and they had their freshman quarterback play the majority of that game. They eventually lost 53-46 but had a 39-38 lead in the 4th quarter. Overall, Cincy has the No.5 ranked offense in the nation at 576 yards a game. They are scoring 38.5 ppg. The defense has gotten better over the season as well. The Bearcats are only giving up 377 yards a game and holding opponents to a 25% conversion rate on 3rd down
Houston has yet to be tested, other than a road win in week 2 @ Louisville. They have outgained all of their opponents this year, but again, I think that Louisville was the only decent team they have played and Louisville has a sub-par offense this season at best. Louisville is only 4-4 on the season and has the 84th ranked offense in the nation and ranked 95th in scoring at only 24 ppg.
I expect to see a close game here on Saturday. An upset is not out of the question, but the Bearcats have more than enough talent on both sides of the ball to keep this one close. Take Cincinnati to get the cover.
Play on Game #387 Florida State (Saturday, 3:30 PM EST)
Since when did Clemson start laying double digits to Florida State? I went all the way back to 1997 and never has Clemson been more than a 8.5 point favorite in this series. Florida State is 12-6 SU over Clemson the last 18 meetings, including 3-0 SU the last 3. Going back to 2005, FSU has only been an underdog three times in this series and the biggest spread was +8.5 while the other two were a +1.5. That sets the stage here for a team like FSU getting too many points based on Clemson's results in the last few weeks. This is the first time FSU has been a double digit dog in the Jimbo Fisher era.
FSU is still 7-1 on the season and is one play away from being undefeated. Georgia Tech blocked the field goal that would have won the game for FSU. If FSU was undefeated, I don't think that we would be seeing such a high line.
Statisically, both offenses matchup up fairly equal. Clemson does have a slightly better defense by 45 yards a game, but it is FSU that is holding opponents to 16.8 ppg while Clemson is allowing slightly more at 17.6.
FSU opened up the offense last week taking more shots down the field and they have said they will continue to do so vs. Clemson. Look for the Seminoles to make some big plays down the field as Clemson tries to stop the Dalvin Cook and the running game. While Jimbo Fisher has not said who will start at quarterback in this game, I think that is an advantage for the Seminoles as Clemson will have to prepare this week for both QB's. Maguire started last week and is more of a pocket passer while Golston is more of an athletic quarterback.
Dalvin Cook who is 2nd in the nation running for 148 yards a game, is expected to play here as he went back to practice on Monday. Cook did not play last week vs. Syracuse. I don't blame him; I'm sure he wanted to be healthy for this game. Jacques Patrick took his spot and ran for 162 yards on 24 carries. Patrick is a 6'1" 230 bruiser that can offset wit Cook's elusive style of running.
Also FSU is expected to get back senior linebacker Terrance Smith who was a 2nd TM ACC player last year.
In practice this week, back up FSU QB Francois is a dual threat like Deshaun Watson of Clemson and has been leading the scout team. Coaches say he is much like Watson and have helped the Seminoles defense in preparing for Watson.
Look for a close game throughout. FSU has too good of a defense and has one of the best running games in the country. The fact that Bowden is staying mum on who will get the start under center is also to our advantage. I like whichever QB is decided on. Take FSU to get the cover.
Play on Game #406 Pittsburgh (Saturday, 12:00 PM EST)
Notre Dame is coming off a tough and physical road game vs. Temple where they barely came out of town with a 24-20 win. Now they are back on the road again and don't have much time to prepare. Pittsburgh last played on Thursday so they do have some extra time to prepare for this game.
The BCS polls just came out and the Irish are No.5 so they also come into this game a bit 'big headed'.
These two teams have been playing annually now since 20008. The series is even at 3-3. Notre Dame's three wins have come by 3,3, and 6 points. Pittsburgh's three wins have come by 7, 5, and 3 points. The average margin of victory in all 6 games has been by 4.5 points. No game has been decided by more than 7 points. Two of the games have went into overtime. Going back even farther, the underdog is 8-0-1 ATS the last 9 meetings.
Pittsburgh has a legit defense only giving up 22.1 ppg and 303 yards a game. Pittsburgh has two losses on the season. Last week they lost by 7 to a very good North Carolina team that is 7-1 on the season. Their other loss was by 3 points on the road to an undefeated Iowa team.
I like Pittsburgh's head coach Pat Narduzzi. He was the defensive coordinator at Michigan State. He is familiar with the Irish since the Spartans faced them from 2007- 2013.
Pittsburgh has a smart quarterback. He is a Tennessee transfer that is completing 67.8% of his passes on the season with only 3 INT. Tyler Boyd is one of the best receivers in the country. He has 63 catches on the season. Pittsburgh uses a 2 TE formation a lot of the time which is very useful on 3rd downs. Pittsburgh has three running backs they have been using to try to find the hot hand with their 'smash-mouth' brand of football.
This is a Pittsburgh team that knows how to use the clock to their advantage thus making the points in this game more attractive. They are ranked 14th in the nation in time of possession.
Notre Dame's starting senior safety is expected to miss the first half of this game after getting ejected last week for targeting.
Play on Game #519 Denver Nuggets (Friday, 10:35 PM EST)
This is too many points on Friday night. The reason for the high line is: 1) Denver played last night and lost, 2) Golden State is 5-0 on the season and 3) the public loves betting on Golden State. So what do the linesmakers do? They jack the line up a few extra points and now we can take full advantage.
This is not a game about who is going to win. I know Golden State will win the game more than likely. This is about who will get the cover. Golden State plays tomorrow night. We should see Curry and some other starters get some rest and not log as many minutes. This is also a bit of a 'let down' for Golden State after having to rally from behind in the 4th quarter to beat the Clippers. That game had a definite playoff atmosphere to it. This game is not as serious to them.
Denver is 2-3 on the season. Their two wins are on the road where they scored 105 and 120 points so the ability for them to score is there. They shot 38.9% from the floor last night which also a sign they shoot better tonight. Denver has plenty of guards that can shoot with Foye, Barton, Nelson, and Harris. Gallinari is healthy this season also and Hickson has been inserted back in the starting lineup plus they just picked up Papanikolaou who gives them some added size down low. I'm not gassing up this team to be some superstars, but my point being is there is enough talent to keep this game within the spread.
Past history: Denver is 4-2 ATS the last 6 games vs. Golden State. The biggest dog they have ever been was 13.5 points. Last year these teams played three times. Golden State won by 7,11, and then by 43 points. Denver remembers that 43 point loss and that's why they played Golden State better the next two times. I expect them to give it all their effort again tonight against the defending champs.
Denver is 5-0 ATS their last 5 games vs. the Western Conference when playing on a back-to-back. Denver is 14-6 (70%) their last 20 games as a road dog of +10.5 or more. Last year they got +18 against the Clippers and only lost by 7. Take Denver to get the cover.
Play on Game #512 Indiana Pacers (Friday, 8:05 PM EST)
The Pacers have momentum coming off two wins against the Pistons and Celtics who should be playoff contenders this season in the East.
The home team is 8-2 SU the last 10 in this series. Last year the Pacers took three of four vs. the Heat without Paul George and covered all four meetings. I think this line is off considering that the Pacers were a 6.5 and 4 point home favorite last year when they played the Heat.
Playing back to back on the road is tough for the Miami Heat with aging players like Wade, Deng, and Bosh. Dating back to last season, the Heat are 1-6 SU their last 7 road games when playing on a back to back.
The Pacers have been playing small ball and have speed with their guards Hill, Stuckey, and Monta Ellis. Paul George can get out and run in transition also. They will push the pace and I don't think the Heat have the legs to keep up here. There is plenty of value in this one given the fact the Pacers were a 6.5 point favorite last season when they caught the Heat on a back to back and beat them 112-89. Take the Pacers to get the win.
Play on Game #305 Cleveland Browns (Thursday, 8:25 PM EST)
The Bengals are coming off a triple revenge win over the Steelers and are still undefeated which sets the stage for this game on Thursday night.
The Bengals played a tough physical game vs. the Steelers. Teams tend not to perform very well the next game after playing Pittsburgh. To make it worse, the Bengals are on a short week of rest. With the Bengals having a 4 game lead on the division, I can't imagine them wanting to win this game by more than 10 points.
While the Browns run defense is giving up 4.8 yards a carry, the Bengals are worse giving up 5 yards a carry. The Bengals have not allowed as many rushing yards, partly because they have built leads and have teams have had to play from behind.
Johnny Manziel will get the start on Thursday. He led the Browns to a 28-14 win in Week 2 vs. the Titans. Manziel had 3 TD/ 1 INT on the season and a QB rating of only 2 points lower than McCown so I don't see a big drop-off here if any.
The underdog has a big edge in this series also here going 13-2-1 ATS the last 16 meetings. The Bengals are 0-4-1 ATS their last 5 home games as a double digit favorite. The Browns are 5-2 ATS their last 7 road games as a double digit road underdog, including a cover last year vs. the Ravens as a 14 point dog. Cleveland is 5-0 ATS their L5 Thursday games. The Bengals are 1-4 ATS their L5 Thursday games.
We have the 4-0 Warriors playing the 4-0 Clippers. While the Warriors have appeared unstoppable, let's look who they beat. Golden State beat New Orleans twice who is now 0-4 SU on the season and has the worst defense in the NBA. They beat Houston who had lost their first three games by 20+ before winning on Monday. They also beat Memphis who got smashed by Cleveland last week by 20+ points.
Also, Memphis does not have guards like the Clippers nor does New Orleans or Houston other than Harden and the Rockets are trying to figure out things with Ty Lawson running the offense. For this line to be only roughly 2 points lower than what Golden State gave New Orleans and almost the same line which they gave Memphis tells me that there is huge value with the Clippers tonight.
For one, the Clippers might have the deepest team in the NBA. Next, they have Redick who can knock down the three. The Warriors haven't faced a pure shooter yet that can knock down the three. Also, Griffin and Jordan, who is going to check them? Griffin is shooting 62% from the floor and Jordan is 82% from the floor. Reddick is shooting 43% from the 3 point line. They have Paul Pierce, Lance Stephenson, Wesley Johnson, and Jamal Crawford who are all scorers. This team is stacked.
Stephen Curry is scoring 31% of the team's points. That is not a good sign if you ask me. Nobody else is scoring over 13 ppg. I think that this is a team that is too one dimensional right now with Curry and the Clippers have a team that is deeper and more versatile.
The Clippers are 6-0 ATS their last 6 road games as an underdog of 6 or more points. They are holding opponents to 39.7% shooting from the floor. I look for a close game and an upset won't surprise me. Take the Clippers.
We took the 76ers on Monday night because they had been good at home getting double digits. We got the cover only because they shot the ball good in the 1st quarter and then had just enough to get the back door cover at the end. If it wasn't for that 1st quarter, they would have lost by 20+ just like they have their other two games. Through three games, Philly is shooting only 39% from the floor.and have a negative assist: turnover ratio.
Philly travels to play Milwaukee tonight, a team they have struggled with in the past. Milwaukee is 6-0 SU and ATS the last 6 games with an average margin of victory of 16 points. They have won all 6 games by at least 10 points.
Philly has a game with Cleveland next and I think they will be more focused on that game considering they were leading at halftime and thought they had a chance against the Cavs.
Milwaukee is expected to get Jabari Parker back and he should play about 15-20 minutes in this game which will be a huge contribution to their front court. Also Tyler Ennis has been cleared to play and he can help off the bench at the guard position.
The Bucks got Greg Monroe in the offseason. He is averaging 20 ppg and 9.5 rpg so far. Antetokounmpo is probably the best player in the NBA you might not have heard of. The kid is a baller and through 4 games is shooting 43% from 3 point range and scoring 22.7 ppg. You will probably see him in the All-Star game this year. The Bucks have three guys shooting 42% or better from the three point line.
Philly doesn't have enough firepower to hang in this game. While they have Okafor and Noel down low, they are young and I feel they are overmatched by Monroe and Co.
The 76ers are 0-6 ATS their last 6 road games as a road underdog of 10-15 points vs. the Eastern Conference. Look for the Bucks to win easily.
Play on Game #303 Ohio Bobcats (Wednesday, 8:00 PM EST)
While Bowling Green has been getting away with laying double digits in conference play, this is their toughest opponent yet. I also don't think they will be fully motivated being they have bigger games @ Western Michigan, then vs. Toledo and finishing the season @ Ball State. Their next three games are all revenge games from last season and being that they have beaten Ohio the last two years, I expect their primary focus to be on Western Michigan and Toledo who are running the MAC West.
If Bowling Green had a decent defense I might think twice about this game, but they don't. The truth is their defense is terrible. Sure, they shutout Kent State, but Kent State's offense is ranked 122nd in the nation at 298 ypg. They held Akron to 10 points, but Akron is ranked 107th in the nation at only 346 ypg. When Bowling Green played team's with decent offenses, they gave up ample points. Bowling Green gave up 38 points to UMass, 28 to Purdue, 44 to Memphis, and 59 to Tennessee. I'm not going to compare Ohio's offense to that of Memphis or Tennessee, but they at least have a senior quarterback, two decent running backs, and an offensive line that returned all their starters from last season.
The one area that Ohio has an advantage is on defense. The Bobcats are only giving up 370 yards a game and have the 26th ranked pass defense in the nation which is important here vs. a Bowling Green team that has the #1 passing attack in the nation. Ohio is also holding opponents to a 33% conversion rate on 3rd downs. Overall, they are only allowing 23 ppg which makes this large point spread more attractive.
Ohio is coming off back to back losses. They lost 41 -17 at Buffalo, but outgained Buffalo by 49 yards. Vick had a bad game throwing 3 INT and then the backup threw an INT also. So it was 4 interceptions that did them in. The quarterback play is better than what they played vs. Buffalo. I expect them to take care of the ball and utilize the run game against the smaller front 7 of Bowling Green.
Bowling Green really hasn't faced a legit defense yet in the MAC. Ohio has one of the top defenses in the MAC conference in my opinion. They are ranked 3rd only giving up 23 ppg and they have the #2 pass defense in the MAC only giving up 186 yards a game.
While Ohio might not be the best team in the MAC, they certainly have enough on both sides of the ball to stay competitive here.
Play on Game #301 Northern Illinois (Tuesday,8:00 PM EST)
While Toledo comes into this game undefeated, I think that the talent level is fairly equal with these two teams and statistically these teams are very close to being even also.
Toledo does have a small edge offensively averaging 3 points more a game and 50 more yards a game. Defensively, Toledo is allowing only 16 ppg while Northern Illinois is allowing 24, but they are dead even giving up 368 to 367 yards a game.
Historically, I will note that Northern Illinois has owned this series as of late winning the last 5 games. The last time Toledo won was in 2009 and that was a 1 point win by the score of 20-19.
I like the quarterback for Northern Illinois better. Drew Hare has a 13 TD/ 3 INT mark on the season for a rating of 142. Toledo's QB, Phillip Ely has a 7 INT's on the season along with a couple of fumbles with only a 55% completion percentage. He has had some bad games this season and the Rockets have been fortunate to win the way they have.
Northern Illinois has 3 losses on the season, but they were all close games. A loss by 10 at Central Michigan, a loss by 7 at Ohio State, and a loss by 3 at Boston College. I will note that Northern Illinois outgained Central Michigan by 41 yards in that loss. I will also note this team is playing with momentum after winning their last 3 games by 28,33,and 18 points. Toledo is 7-0 SU and 6-0-1 ATS on the season and because of that, we are seeing this line shaded a couple points higher than what it should be.
Northern Illinois has been a great underdog play as of late on the road. They are 7-1-1 ATS their last 9 games as a road dog. This includes a loss of only 7 points to Ohio State earlier this season. Northern Illinois also beat Northwestern in 2014 and Iowa in 2013. They were a 9.5 point road dog in 2011 and beat the Toledo Rockets straight up 63-60. The road team is now 4-0 ATS the last 4 meetings which tells me home field is not significant in this series. The underdog is also 9-4 ATS the last 13 meetings covering 69% of the time.
Northern Illinois has put up at least 27 points in the last 5 meetings with an average of 44. In Matt Campbell's 3 year tenure at Toledo, his team has scoreg only 17, 24, and 24 points against Northern Illinois. That won't be enough to get the job done this Tuesday night. Northern Illinois has a well balanced offense (200+ rush ypg and 200+ pass ypg) making them a dangerous dog. Take the points in this Tuesday Night MAC matchup.
The Miami Heat should not be laying any points to the Atlanta Hawks. This is a case of having the wrong team favored in my opinion. Atlanta is 6-0 SU the last 6 meetings vs. the Heat. They are 6-0-1 ATS their last 7 vs. Heat. The last loss was to the Heat came in 2013 in overtime by 2 points. That was when the Heat had Lebron. He had 38 points in the game. Now the Heat are relying on Wade, Bosh, and Deng (all past their prime in my opinion) to carry the load. The Hawks are a young team and are full of energy with their young guards.
Last time these two teams was last year and the Hawks were a 2 point favorite on the road and they did not have Teague or Carroll play. Carroll is gone but Teague is healthy. The Hawks still won that game last year 93-91.
Again, this is a simple case of the wrong team being favored. The Hawks have dominated this series and I can't see any changes in the Heat's roster to make me think tonight will be any different.
Play on Game #275 Indianapolis Colts (Monday, 8:30 PM EST)
While the Panthers are undefeated on the season, tonight's game presents a challenge for them in my eyes. One being playing their 2nd consecutive primetime game. Secondly, they have a bigger game vs. the Packers next week. Third, as bad as Andrew Luck has looked at times, Cam Newton has a lower completion percentage and doesn't have the receivers that Luck has.
The Colts have never lost three straight games under HC Pagano. This game being played on Monday Night, I have to expect the Colts to leave it all on the field. I will also note that the Colts are getting so help back on defense, notably Mike Adams their starting safety who is tied for the lead in interceptions this season. The Colts will dress up tonight as healthy as they have been all season long. Their starting center is the only missing piece, but the back-up started 10 games last season.
The Panthers are 0-2-1 ATS their last 3 home games as a favorite of 6 or more points. They only won by 5 earlier this season when giving the Saints 10 points who were without Drew Brees. They laid 6 to the Browns last season and only won by 4. The Colts are not a road underdog often, so getting this many points tonight is plenty of value to me and one to capitalize. The Colts did respond earlier this season as a 4.5 point dog against Houston when Hasslebeck was the quarterback and they were desperate for a win.
As the NFL season progresses, pressure mounts for these undefeated teams. I can't Carolina winning this game by more than 3 points. They are not outgaining their opponents either which is another red flag when playing the favorite role. Look for the Colts to sneak away with a cover on Monday Night.
Play on Game #504 New York Knicks (Monday, 7:35 PM EST)
The Knicks have opened up the season 2-1. Carmelo is coming off his best game of the season which is encouraging to the team and to me as a bettor in this game. Also the fact that the Knicks have played the Spurs tough over the last few years is also encouraging. The Knicks took two of three from the Spurs last year. They won 104-100 at home and Carmelo did not play in that game so I think there is no question they can hang around in this game with him playing.
The Spurs squeezed out a win yesterday vs. the Celtics in a game that was within the single digits in the 4th quarter. The Celtics couldn't get closer than 5 points, but they also don't have a go-to- scorer like 'Melo. I had the Celtics and was a loser, but Boston has plenty of chances to get the cover.
So the Spurs are playing on a back-to-back and are on the road once again. The Knicks are playing with a day of rest. Aldridge and Leonard played 34 minutes each. The Spurs bench is not the bench they have had in the past in my opinion, especially down low and I think the Knicks can capitalize. Derrick Williams and Kyle O'Quinn are two guys that come off the bench that are great role players that give the Knicks second team a nice boost.
This is the Knicks second home game of the season. The excitement was there in their first game against the Hawks, but the Knicks couldn't hit their three's and 'Melo struggled. I have to think that 'Melo builds off his strong game vs. the Wizards and carries the team here. Take the Knicks to get the cover.
Play on Game #502 Philadelphia 76ers (Monday, 7:05 PM EST)
I know the 76ers have looked terrible the first two games and I also know the Cavs will win this game more than likely, but the spread is too high and the 76ers do their best when catching double digits at home. Dating back to last season, Philly is 8-2 ATS as a double digit homedog.
These two teams played three times last year with Philly winning one of those game by 3 points at home as a 7.5 point home dog. The 76ers lost the other two by 1 point and 13 points.
Rookie Jahlil Okafor has been a bright spot for Philly averaging 18 ppg and 6.5 rpg so far. Noel down low is grabbing 11 boards a game. Both kids are young and they can log heavy minutes, especially since not playing on Friday night. Stauskas came back on Friday night also and chipped in with 12 points and nailed a couple of 3 pointers. HE at least gives them another shooter on the outside other than Canaan who is running the point.
For the Cavs, they do have Mozgov and Thompson down low, but I think it will be a good matchup with Noel and Okafor. The Cavs are still without Kyrie and Shumpert who are key ingredients to this team. That leaves LeBron and Kevin Love now responsible to do the majority of the scoring. The Cavs role players are not shooting the ball either. Mo Williams is shooting 35%, Dellavedova shooting 30% from 3 PT, and J.R. Smith is only shooting 28% from the floor.
The 76ers should also get a boost on offense and defense as Robert Covington has been upgraded to probable to play this game. Last year, Covington averaged 13.5 ppg and 4.5 boards a game. While he will be on a minutes restriction, Covington plays the small forward position and can help guard LeBron and also gives the team another 3 point threat opposite of Stauskas. Covington was 10th in the NBA last season in 3 pointers made.
As far as motivation goes, I can't see Cleveland very motivated to cover this double digit spread. I expect a better effort from Philly and getting Stauskas and Covington back on the court is a huge boost to the team. It might not be pretty or a sexy selection, but look for Philly to get the cover at home on Monday night.
Play on Game #271 Dallas Cowboys (Sunday, 4:25 PM EST)
There are still questions to be answered about this Seattle team in my opinion. Sure, we cashed in with them last Thursday against the 49ers who have a bottom tier offense and defense. Plus they owned the 49ers in the past.
This Sunday it's a different game. Dallas beat Seattle last year in Seattle. While this is revenge for Seattle, I still think Dallas has the recipe to beat the Seahawks once again, or at least give us the cover.
Seattle's offensive line continues to be a mess. Wilson got sacked 5 times last week vs. the 49ers and has been sacked 31 times on the season. The Dallas defense is getting stronger with Hardy and Gregory. Also Dez Bryant should be back and he and Hardy give the offense and defense a much added 'swagger'.
The Seattle defense is down this year much because the loss of their DC in my opinion. We have seen them collapse late in games and fail to put games away.
Dallas had 27 first downs last week against the Giants. They ran for over 200 yards on the ground and outgained the Giants by 246 yards. Even without Romo, Bryant, and their defensive starters, the Cowboys have failed to get outgained by more than 49 yards this season. Cassel is an upgrade over Weeden no doubt. Bryant is extra offense and I already mentioned the defense is healthier.
Dallas is 4-1 ATS their last 5 home games as a homedog of 4.5 points or more. The one loss was earlier this season 30-6 to New England. The Cowboys are much healthier all the way around now and Seattle is not nearly as good as the Patriots. I see this as a 3 point game all day long. Take the points with Dallas.
Boston doesn't play again until Wednesday so we think they will be giving their best effort offensively on Sunday looking to bounce back from their loss on Friday Night. Boston has a 10 man rotation to keep fresh legs on the floor.
The Spurs are still stacked, but they do have a game tomorrow and Popovich is known to limit his starter's minutes the game before playing on a back to back.
Boston has scored 103 and 112 points this season so we know they can score which is essential in covering this spread. They also went 4-1 ATS down the stretch last year as a homedog, covering against the Warriors, Grizzlies, Hawks, and Rockets which also tells me they rise to the occasion when playing elite teams.
Boston is playing their 3rd consecutive home game which I see as a good thing also. I also like the fact they have had a day to recover after losing to Toronto. Boston did not shoot the ball well at all and I think the Celtic pride along with the home crowd will help them on Sunday afternoon.
Danny Crawford is officiating this game. Last game he called for the Celtics was last season and the Celtics shot 31 free throws compared to only 10 for the Pistons and the Celtics got most of the questionable calls. Josh Tiven is another ref today and he has a twin brother who is a big Celtics fan. The Celtics are 8-2 in the last 10 games Tiven has called.
I'm not going to make a decision based only on the officials for today, but I do think that is an added edge. I also think that with the Spurs having to play tomorrow and the Celtics not having to play for a few days that we see a stronger showing from the Celtics starters. They showed poise in the 2nd half of last season when facing elite teams. I expect another strong showing this afternoon. Take Boston to get the cover.
Play on Game #264 Pittsburgh Steelers (Sunday, 1:00 PM EST)
This is the Steelers biggest game of the season in my opinion and they will have Big Ben back under center to lead this offense; a very powerful offense I might add with Martavis Bryant now playing opposite of Antonio Brown and then LeVeon Bell in the backfield.
The Steelers are fortunate to be at 4-3 right now. A win this Sunday and they are only 2 games back of the Bengals. The Bengals are undefeated on the season and coming off a bye week. While a bye week is usually a good thing for NFL teams, I feel like it might have thrown off the Bengals groove a bit. My thinking is that they might come into this game a bit 'big headed' and get caught off guard by a hungry Pittsburgh team.
My next point of emphasis is the line on this game. Dating back to 2004 when Big Ben started his NFL career with Pittsburgh, the Steelers have been at least a 2 point home favorite in 10 of the 11 meetings vs. the Bengals. In 2013, the Steelers were inserted as a 1.5 point dog in 2013 and they won the game straight up 30-20. Pittsburgh is 3-0 SU and ATS the last 3 meetings vs. the Bengals and Roethlisberger has won 74% of his career starts vs. the Bengals. Since 2004, the Steelers are 9-2-2 ATS as a homedog, including 3-0 ATS against the AFC North. The Bengals are 1-6 SU and 0-7 ATS their last 7 as a road favorite against the AFC North dating back to 2007.
A key note is that the Bengals run defense is giving up 4.9 yards a carry while the Steelers are only giving up 3.9 yards a carry. That is huge for this game as I think that LeVeon Bell will tear this Bengals defense up and will open up big plays down the field. I note this because the Bengals have only went up against one Top 10 running back this season in my opinion and that was Jamal Charles. Charles had 11 carries for 75 yards (6.8 yards a carry).
Pittsburgh is only giving up 18.7 ppg this season. They held Arizona to a season low 13 points two weeks ago at home. I am expecting another stellar effort from the defense and for the team to rally behind Big Ben and a WIN is in store.
Play on Game #256 Atlanta Falcons (Sunday, 1:00 PM EST)
Huge edge for Atlanta at all the offensive skill positions (Ryan over Winston, Freeman over Martin, and Julio Jones over any of Tampa Bay's receivers). I will note that Vincent Jackson is out with an injury to the Bucs and so is Louis Murphy who have 29% of Tampa Bay's receptions this season.
Also there is a huge edge for Dan Quinn the coach for Atlanta. He is a defensive guru that was with the Seahawks last year. We believe he will force Jameis Winston into a few turnovers that will be costly.
Tampa Bay is in a tough spot also after jacking off the game last week. They had a 24-0 lead on the Redskins only to lose 31-30. It will be hard for them to get back up for this game. Atlanta won both games last year vs. the Bucs by 10 and 42 points. Yes, they won 56-14 at home where the Dirty Birds were getting dirty.
Defensively, the Falcons are 8.4 ppg better than the Bucs this season. The offense is 4.3 ppg better. That is 12.7 ppg better, add in home field advantage and the Atlanta Falcons are a full 14 points better at the least in this game in my opinion. I will also note the Falcons won last week despite only scoring 10 points at Tennessee. A lot of times we will see a team's offense explode the next game following a game that went under by 28 or more points. This is a no brainer here. Lay it and Play it! BLOWOUT by the Falcons!
Play on Game #149 Stanford (Saturday, 10:30 PM EST)
This game has been bet down low enough so now we can get a piece of the action. Much of the betting action is because Washington State has won 3 straight games, but all 3 were vs. defenseless teams of Oregon, Arizona, and Oregon State. Tonight they will be facing a Stanford team that looks better and better as the season progresses. The fact about this game is this is the two best offenses in the PAC 12 , but with rain expected in the forecast along with winds in the 15-20 MPH range, it will be Stanford's high powered running attack that will lead the way and to a convincing cover and let's remember that the Cardinals have the superior defense by 86 yards a game and 11 ppg.
Stanford has the best running back in the country in McCaffrey other than Fournette. Stanford is averaging 5 yards a carry for 221 yards a game on the ground. Washington State is giving up 203 yards a game on the ground for 5.1 yards per rush. Stanford's pass defense is only giving up 206 yards a game on the ground. Opposing teams are only completing 53% of their pass attempts. Falk for Washington State will probably complete for a higher rate than 53%, but I do expect the Cardinals to make some stops when they need to.
Another point of emphasis is the Washington State defense that has given up 45, 52, 38, and 34 points in PAC 12 play. This is still a poor defense make no mistake about it. Stanford is averaging 45 ppg in PAC 12 play. I think they can hang 50+ in this game honestly but asking them to score 42+ in very reasonable. Christian McCaffrey is electric. The kid can run the ball, catch the ball, and return kicks. Look for him to make a case to be in the running for the Heisman after this game.
The last 3 meetings at Washington State, Stanford has won by 38, 30, and, 26 points. Only one of the last 7 meetings has been decided by fewer than 10 points. Stanford has scored 34 or more points in 6 of these 7 games. I see Washington State getting stuck around 20 points here. Take Stanford to get the cover.
Play on Game #506 New Orleans (Saturday, 7:35 PM EST)
This game is set up nicely for New Orleans to get the cover. Golden State is playing on a back to back after getting a satisfying win last night over Houston. Let's remember that Golden State is not as dominant on the road. Houston lost as a DD home favorite against Denver on opening night so that win doesn't count for much. Also, this is a huge game for New Orleans being a big same season revenge game from earlier in the week on opening night. (Davis went 4-for-20 from the floor and we would have saw a much closer game if Davis would had shot his usual 50 somethin % from the floor). It's also revenge from last year's playoff series and New Orleans is playing their home opener tonight. The Pelicans have started off the season 0-2 but have had 2 days to rest and prepare for this game. New Orleans head coach was the assistant coach for the Warriors last year. I give them an advantage here and considering that Luke Walton is filling in for Steve Kerr. In a close game, I will give the Pelicans a few bonus points for coaching. Also, Bogut is out for Golden State and David Lee got traded. New Orleans picked up Toney Douglas to help their backcourt and he has been a reliable scorer in the league. Also, New Orleans might be getting starting center Asik back and Luke Babbit also which would be an added bonus. Take the points with New Orleans tonight.
Play on: Game #136 NC State (Saturday, 3:30 PM EST)
NC State comes into this game at 5-2. They started off the season 4-0 then took consecutive losses. The Wolfpack then had a much needed bye week and came out last week on the road and beat Wake Forest 35-17. Not that Wake was much of a challenge for them, but it was still a confidence building win that sets the stage for this game here.
Clemson is coming off arguably their biggest win of the season last week beating Miami 55-0. The Hurricanes are not good this year though and their star quarterback got injured in the first half. The Hurricanes were also missing their best linebacker who is out injured for the year.
Now Clemson is sitting fat at a perfect 7-0 on the season off a big cover and win and facing a NC State team that is playing with confidence off their win and looking for revenge from last year's 41-0 loss at Clemson. That loss was the worst loss in HC Dave Doeren's current 3 year tenure at the school. I look for him to have his team ready for this game.
For NC State, they have a very reliable and consistent quarterback. Jacoby Brissett threw for 23 TD and only 5 INT last season. This year he is completing 67% of his passes with 10 TD to only 1 INT.
The NC State defense is holding opponents to only a 29% conversion rate on 3rd downs and the secondary is tough only allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 47.8% of their passes. On offense, Brissett has led his team to a score 95.5% of the time in the red zone. He is completing 67% of his passes this season, up from 59.7% from last year.
These teams are very equal statistically. NC State is running for 214 yards a game while Clemson is running for 211 yards a game. NC State is allowing 18.8 ppg while Clemson is allowing 15 ppg. NC State is ranked #5 in total yards given up a game while Clemson is ranked #3.
One difference that I do see is in the quarterback and the decision making. Jacoby Brissett is only throwing an interception .6% of the time (#6 in the nation), while Watson for Clemson is throwing an interception 4.4% of the time (#113 in the nation). In turn, NC State is ranked #3 in the nation only giving the ball away .5 times a game while Clemson is giving the ball away 1.8 times a game, ranked 81st in the nation. While Clemson has been able to force more turnovers, this game is not favorable to them considering that NC State takes care of the football. I will also note that NC State is ranked #2 in the nation in Time of Possession % as they have the ball 58.9% of the time.
This is NC State's homecoming game and with them playing with revenge and inserted as an underdog, I look for them to leave it all on the field this Saturday. Clemson has a HUGE triple revenge game on deck vs. Florida State. Clemson had the game won last year but then fumbled with less than 2 minutes to go and Winston sent the game into overtime and beat Clemson 23-17. This is clearly as big of a 'look-ahead' and sandwich game as there can be for the Tigers. Take NC State to get the cover.
Play on Game #160 Texas Tech (Saturday, 3:30 PM EST)
Texas Tech comes into this game off two consecutive spread losses so the public is not very eager on backing them this Saturday, but I am and for good reason.
This is a Texas Tech team that has faced the 3 best teams in the BIG 12 already in Baylor, TCU, and Oklahoma last week. This is a team that has been battle tested too say the least. One thing for sure is that Texas Tech plays their best football in Lubbock where they are 3-1 SU and 3-0-1 ATS on the season. The one loss was by three points to TCU (a game that Texas Tech was winning until TCU scored a touchdown with 23 seconds left). The push on the spread was their season opener vs. Sam Houston State, but Texas Tech still put up 59 points in the win.
Kliff Kingsbury, the Texas Tech head coach, has been a great homedog going 4-1 ATS in his 3 years at Tech. Kingsbury also knows he has the team this season to finally beat Oklahoma State and will be catching the Cowboys at an opportune time. Oklahoma State is undefeated on the season sitting fat and happy at 7-0. The pressure is starting to mount for Oklahoma State now and pressure burst pipes in College Football. Oklahoma State has a big matchup next week vs. TCU which is a revenge game last year when they lost 42-9 and gave up a season high 676 yards. Considering the fact they have beaten Texas Tech the last 6 meetings, I expect them to be looking ahead to next week's game vs. TCU.
Oklahoma State's best win this season was vs. West Virginia. Other than that, they haven't had to face much competition. I will note in their 3 road games, they got outgained by 81 yards at West Virginia, they won by 3 points at Texas (this was a very bad Texas team at the time), and they struggled to beat Central Michigan by 11 points as they only had a 17-13 lead heading into the 4th quarter. Oklahoma State has yet to face an offense that is as efficient and powerful as Texas Tech.
Texas Tech leads the nation converting on 54% of their 3rd downs. This is an offense that is putting up 599 yards a game. They are averaging 5.9 yards a carry for 198 yards a game on the ground to go with the 'air raid' passing game.
Oklahoma State doesn't have the offense to keep up in this one. I will note last year this game was played in Stillwater and Texas Tech put up 512 yards and only got outgained by 16 yards. This year's team is much better with Mahomes as the quarterback. He can use his legs and run when he needs to which makes this offense that much more dynamic. Oklahoma State's quarterback, Mason Rudolph has 10 TD to 7 INT on the season and 2 fumbles. Mahomes for Texas Tech has 21 TD's on the season to 10 INT.
Special Teams: Oklahoma State is hitting on only 69% of their field goals this season. Texas Tech is making 82% of theirs.
In closing, I strongly feel Texas Tech will be the more motivated team on Saturday and Oklahoma State will be looking ahead to TCU. I also think that HC Klingsbury has his best team yet and he has them playing with confidence. At the end of the day, I fully expect for Texas Tech to come away with the cover.
Play on Game #154 California Bears (Saturday, 3:00 PM EST)
This is an over correction by the linesmakers in my opinion. USC is coming off a win after losing two straight while Cal is coming off back-to-back losses. I will note that both of Cal's losses were on the road vs. a very good Utah team and a good UCLA team.
Cal is playing this game at home and have had a few extra days to prepare after playing last Thursday. Cal is 3-0 straight up this season at home. Granted their toughest opponent at home was Washington State, but still they tend to play better at home. USC is coming off a big win over an undefeated Utah team and now go from being a road dog to a road favorite. I don't think they are good enough to play this role right now. I also think they are in a 'letdown' spot.
Cal has an offense that can score averaging 37.9 ppg this season. Future NFL quarterback Goff has connected with double digit receptions to seven different players on the team. Goff had 10 TD/ 3 INT at home this season. Cal has scored at least 34 points at home this season also. While Lasco was the starting running back this season, he had been injured and Muhammad has responded with 8.4 yards per rush.
While USC won last week 42-24 over Utah, they only outgained the Utes by 27 yards. The week before that USC defense gave up 476 yards @ Notre Dame. The week before, the offense only scored 12 points vs. Washington. This is an inconsistent team with inconsistent play from Kessler the quarterback. While they did beat Arizona State 42-14 on the road, they only outgained the Sun Devils by 1 yard and Arizona State won the time of possession in that game, 32 minutes to 28 minutes. It was 4 turnovers by Arizona State that changed the game.
USC has won 11 straight games vs. Cal. They really won't be taking this team very serious. Cal is in desperate need of a win. The Golden Bears have ALL juniors and seniors starting on defense this season. I look for a solid showing by the defense after getting gashed at UCLA.
Injuries: USC's starting 1st TM PAC 12 center is out for the season. Now starting left tackle Toa Lobendahn had been moved over to play center and he is now out for the season. Now they have an inexperienced sophomore playing center on the road. Now this is an offensive line that has 4 sophomores starting. It has shown as Kessler has not had as much time in the pocket as he did at the beginning of the season.
USC is 4-3 on the season. The reason they won at Utah and at Arizona State was because of turnovers by the other team. Arizona State fumbled three times. Utah threw three interceptions. When USC doesn't win the turnover battle, I don't think they are good enough to win a contested game. And in this game, I have to expect Goff for Cal to play a great game and for the Bears to take care of the ball. I will also note that Cal is ranked #2 in the nation with 2.8 takeaways a game.
Cal is scoring 86% of the time at home in the red zone. USC is scoring only 62% of the time on the road in the red zone. I will also note that USC is not disciplined as they are averaging 10 penalties a game on the road while Cal is only averaging 4.5 penalties at home.
Cal has 17 returning starters on this year's team. They are coming off back to back 'ATS' losses and playing with big revenge. This is a big game for all the juniors and seniors on this team. PAC 12 teams this season have been able to bounce back after suffering B2B losses. (USC won last week after B2B losses, UCLA won last week after B2B losses, Arizona State has bounced back when playing off a loss, Arizona bounced back after losing B2B games earlier this season, and Oregon has bounced back both times this season after losing as well. There is parity in the PAC 12 this year and I look for Cal to get the cover on Saturday night.
Play on Game #724 Phoenix Suns (Friday, 10:35 PM EST)
These two teams play again tomorrow night in Portland so Phoenix will be sure to give their best effort at home tonight to ensure a win and cover.
Phoenix just shot 39% in their home loss on Wednesday night against Dallas. This is a better shooting team than that and will shoot the ball better here I expect.
Portland let Aldridge go in the off season. Now they have no inside presence as Meyers Leonard supposed to take over at the 4. Portland relies too heavily on their backcourt with Lilliard and McCollum. Sure, these guys can score, but the problem is they had to take 43 shots combined to beat New Orleans on Wednesday night. (A deflated New Orleans team I will add that had just lost to Golden State the night before). The duo made 50% of the team's field goals and shot 49% of the teams shots and made 52% of the teams points. My point being is this is not a complete team and Lilliard and McCollum will probably not shoot 51% from the floor considering they are playing on the road.
Dating back to last season, Portland is 0-6-1 ATS their last 7 road games. This is a bad road team. Phoenix is 6-2 ATS the last 8 meetings at home. Phoenix is 19-6-2 their last 27 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points.
McCollum is coming off a career high 37 points which sets this fade on Portland even better. Portland has 4 new starters this season. Look for Phoenix to make amends from their home loss on Wednesday and get the cover on Friday night before having to travel to Portland on Saturday.
Play on Game #717 Minnesota T'Wolves (Friday, 9:05 PM EST)
The T'Wolves showed courage and that they can win on the road by beating the Lakers on Wednesday night to open up the season. I know the Lakers might not be a playoff team, but Minnesota still found a way to win the game after being down 7 points entering the 4th quarter.
Home court has not mattered in this series as the road team has won the last 3 meetings and the road team is 4-0 ATS the last 4 meetings so I will discount home court in this matchup.
Denver has a lot of new and young players that are not proven. Ty Lawson got shopped in the off season and now they have a true rookie in Mudiay (19 years old) running the point. I think the TWolves have a big advantage at the point guard spot in this game with Rick Rubio who is being mentored by long time Denver Nugget Andre Miller. I especially like this matchup considering the fact that Miller played for Denver for 5 seasons, most recently in 2014. Besides having Miller there, Rubio has been working with shooting coach guru Mike Penberthy in the off season.
Rubio looks to have found chemistry with rookie Karl- Anthony Towns. Towns also has a mentor in Kevin Garnett to work with. Minnesota has a 10 man rotation with Kevin Martin who can come off the bench and add offense.
In Denver's rotation, they have three new players. This is not a good team to begin with, and they lack the depth to compete. Denver is coming off a win against Houston as a double digit dog and now being installed as a home favorite, I think they are ripe for a let-down. Their shooting guards only combined for 8 points against the Rockets.
I had mentioned the road team in this series has been good. The Twolves are 12-4 (75%) ATS their last 16 meetings in Denver. The Road team is 24-6-1 (77%) ATS the last 30 meetings overall. Take Minnesota to get the cover.
While La Tech might be the better team, this is too many points on Friday night for them to be giving Rice. Both teams have 1 loss in C-USA play. A win by Rice tonight will send them ahead of La Tech in the C-USA West atop the standings with Southern Miss. While I'm not positive that Rice will win this game, I am positive they will cover this double digit spread.
Rice has a senior quarterback in Driphus Jackson that has been reliable on the season with a 63% completion rate and 11 TD/ 4 INT. He is starting to get heated up going for 5 TD/ 0 INT his last two games completing 65% of his passes.
This is only Rice's 4th home game of the season. They are 2-1 SU at home. The loss was against Western Ky and Jackson was not 100% for that game. Rice has a trio of running backs to give the ball too. They have a solid offensive line and a trio of reliable receivers. So the core pieces are there for them to score points.
Rice has historically been a profitable homedog. This is the most points they have gotten at home since the 2012 season and I expect them to perform well under HC David Bailiff who has led his team to three consecutive bowl games (2012-2014). This is also a big revenge game for Rice after they got thumped last year 76-31 against La Tech in their season finale that had implications on who would win the C-USA West. That game was played at La Tech, this game is being played at Rice.
La Tech is 1-3 ATS on the road this season. They were a road favorite once when playing at UTSA and only won by 3 points and laid 13 points. La Tech is now 0-3 ATS their last 3 games as a road favorite going back to last year. Dating back to 2010, they are 0-5 ATS as a double digit road favorite. The average line in these 5 games is La Tech -17.5. Their average margin of victory in these 5 games was only by 6.8 points. Take Rice to get the cover on Friday Night.
Play on Game #706 Orlando Magic (Friday, 7:05 PM EST)
Orlando got us the cash on Wednesday night. I am going back with them on Friday night as I believe this is too many points for the Thunder to be laying on the road. I mentioned I feel this Magic team is much improved and they showed it going toe to toe vs. a very good Washington team.
Dating back to 2011, 6 of the last 8 matchups have been decided by 8 points or less. Three of them were decided by 3 points or less. I know this is a new season, but the Magic have their most healthy and talented team in this time period and I strongly feel, and will be betting they keep this one within 8 points (current spread) again.
Orlando was up 2 points entering the 4th quarter against the Wizards. They actually had a 5 point lead with less than 2 points remaining. My point being this team competed for all 4 quarters. They have a bad taste in their mouth after losing by a point and they will be motivated for another strong showing at home in front of their crowd.
Looking at the stats, the Magic only shot 37% from the floor (5-for-26 from 3 PT) and still were in the game. They played good defense and if they could have hit more shots, then they would have won. This is a much improved Orlando defense under new HC Scott Skiles that held the Wizards to 39.3% shooting from the floor.
Oklahoma City is much satisfied with their come from behind win in the last few minutes against the Spurs. It was a tough game for them and one they were seeking revenge. I look for them to just do enough to try to get the job done on Friday. They don't care about covering a spread. Take the Orlando Magic with the points.
Play on Game #504 New York Knicks (Thursday, 8:05 PM EST)
The Knicks are headed back home to the Madison Square Garden for their home opener. While many 'experts' have their doubt about New York, I don't. In fact, I see this as a much more competitive team this season. The good thing about tonight's game is they are playing an Atlanta Hawks team that is overvalued in my opinion and will regress this season.
The loss of Demarre Carroll for Atlanta is huge. He was their best defender on the perimeter. Now the Hawks are much smaller and not as physical at the guard spots. Korver for the Hawks can't play any defense either. I think Carmelo will have a big game tonight as there will be plenty of mismatches. Melo went 4-for-16 last night and the Knicks still won without him having a big game.
The Knicks played last night but being just the 2nd game of the season, I'm not concerned with tired legs. What I do like is they had 10 players play in between 18 and 29 minutes so they should be fresh for this game tonight. What I also like is the Knicks bench that scored 73 points last night. I also like the fact they shot 39% from the 3 point line.
The Knicks have two experienced veteran guards in Calderon and Vujacic. Off the bench, the rookie Jerian Grant is a straight baller and Galloway can shoot the 3 (went 4-for-5 last night). Down low, Derrick Williams off the bench is a scoring threat and O'Quinn is a guy that loves to bang and rebound that can relieve Lopez. The Knicks got 7'3" Porzingis in the draft and he has a solid shooting touch and can shoot free throws also (9-for-12 from the line last night).
The Hawks got outrebounded 59-40 in their opener against Detroit. The Knicks are big and physical down low and I think they can out rebound the Hawks as well.
I am looking for an electric atmosphere tonight at the Garden and I think that the players won't disappoint. There are mismatches on the perimeter for the Knicks to take advantage of. Look for them to do so.
Play on Game #714 Oklahoma City Thunder (Wednesday, 8:05 PM EST)
This is a big game for the Oklahoma City Thunder. The Thunder had so many injuries last year and missed the playoffs. This year everybody is healthy and they looked great in the preseason going 5-1.
In the Preseason, the Thunder were ranked #1 in effective Field Goal %. They were ranked #3 in offensive rebounding %. Durant shot 59% from the floor in the preseason including 57% from the 3 point line. K.D. has a purpose this season and I can guarantee you it starts with a win and cover on Wednesday. Steven Adams and Enes Kanter make a strong frontcourt. Durant, Westbrook, and Ibaka are a powerful trio, maybe the best trio in the NBA. Dion Waiters off the bench can be instant offense. Mitch McGary is another backup center that can be used down low and he is expected to play after suffering a concussion in the preseason.
For the Spurs, they upgraded in the off season with the addition of LaMarcus Aldridge, but I suspect it will take time for Aldridge to fully fit in with the team. Parker (33), Ginobli (38), and Duncan (39) are still there and their legs are getting older. The Spurs did make some changes and it will take them some time to get their rotation back in sync. Belinelli got traded and he was a reliable guy off the bench. Splitter got traded also and he had worked his way to fit in with the Spurs and Cory Joseph got shopped also.
The Spurs went 2-4 in the preseason. They shot only 43% from the floor, including only 33% from the 3 point line and only were grabbing 8.7 offensive boards a game which tells me that Splitter is being missed.
The home team which is usually the favorite as dominated this series. Oklahoma City is 9-2 ATS the last 11 meetings at home vs. the Spurs. The home team is 15-6-1 ATS the last 22 meetings overall and the favorite is 18-7-1 ATS the last 26 meetings. Take Oklahoma City to get the cover.
Play on Game #704 Boston Celtics (Wednesday 7:35 PM EST)
I see the Celtics as an improved team this year and the 76ers appear to be in worse shape than last year.
Philly is already a team that's thin with depth and now has injuries to shooting guard Nik Stauskas, forward Robert Covington, and point guard Troy Wroten. There are other injuries as well and it only challenges this team even more. Stauskas might play but he missed the entire preseason, so he might be a bit rusty.
The 76ers went 0-4 on the road this Preseason shooting only 36.9% from the floor, including 23% from the three point line. Philly also turned the ball over 23 times a game on the road.
Philly's starting 5 is looking like it's going to be Isaiah Canaan, JaKarr Sampson, Jerami Grant, Nerlens Noel, and Jahlil Okafor. This is an extremly young team with undrafted TJ McConnell playing backup point guard. Nobody in their current 7 man rotation is older than 24 years old right now.
Boston swept the 76ers last year and did so with ease beating them by 11, 11,18, and 19 points. The Celtics looked much improved this preseason going 6-1 and finished ranked #2 in efficiency. The 76ers were ranked 28th in efficiency only better in the preseason.
Boston has a strong starting 5 to go with depth also on their bench. Marcus Smart is back healthy running the point. David Lee came over from Golden State to give them strength down low. Isaiah Thomas came over from Sacramento late last season to give the team another reliable point guard and Evan Turner is instant offense off the bench.
Boston is 5-0 SU and ATS their last 5 games when inserted as a double digit favorite. They were a double digit favorite twice last season and won by 21 and 39. Boston has the day off on Thursday before playing Toronto on Friday so I expect them to run the score here on opening night. Philly has been a double digit so much over the years, I decided to narrow it down as they do when a +10 to +13 digit road dog. The results are they are 2-7-1 ATS their last 9 road games as a dog of +10 to +13 points with an average loss of 19 point in the games they did not cover. I think the Celtics should not have a problem winning this one by 15 + points.
Play on Game #702 Orlando Magic ( Wednesday 7:05 PM EST)
The Orlando Magic have a new head coach in Scott Skiles and a healthy rotation this season. They had young talent last year but had trouble finding a consistent starting rotation. This year they have a strong backcourt and have Vucevic healthy who is one of the best centers in the NBA that not many know about.
The Magic have Oladipo, Napier, CJ Watson, and Elfrid Payton in the backcourt. Tobias Harris is 100% and is a viable scoring option that averaged 13/ 6 in the preseason to go along with Vucevic's 14/7. They also add in rookie Mario Hazonja who gives this Magic team some sawgger. He shot 40% from the 3 point line in the preseason and gives this team what I think that can be the strectch forward they have been looking for.
For the Wizards, they let Paul Pierce go to the Clippers. The Wizards did add some depth off the bench with Dudley, Neal, and Anderson, but it remains to be shown how these guys will sync with the team and if Otto Porter is ready to take over for Paul Pierce at the small forward position.
I have Orlando as one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season and think they will show it at home in their first game. They went 6-2 in the preseason under new HC Scott Skiles. Washington swept the season series last year 4-0, so the Magic will be motivated for this game here. I will note that Orlando played Washington tough at home last year losing by 2 and 7 points. The 7 point loss Oladipo did not play. The 2 point loss he did play. I think the Magic are much improved this year and the Wizards are about on par as last year. The Wizards are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games as a road favorite. Take Orlando to get the cover.
10-27-15
New Orleans Pelicans v. Golden State Warriors -9.5
Play on: Golden State Warriors (Tuesday, 10:30 PM EST)
You know what time it is... The Splash Brothers are going to be too much for this New Orleans team that doesn't have much depth because of injuries.
The Pelicans are banged up to start the season. Tyreke Evans, who played 79 games last year, is out with a knee injury. Jrue Holiday should have his minutes under watch also coming back from injury. Norris Cole and Pondexter are also out now leaving this backcourt very thin with Holiday and Nate Robinson. Both of their back up centers (Asik and Ajinca) are out with injury also, leaving only Kendrick Perkins down low with Anthony Davis. Davis and Anderson will not be enough to keep this within single digits.
Golden State swept the Pelicans last year in the playoffs. They are 7-1 straight up the last 8 meetings now dating back to last year. I think there is great value in this game considering that Golden State was a 12.5-14 point favorite last year when playing at home vs. New Orleans. To be laying single digits tonight is a bargain.
This Golden State is deep as ever. To go 10 deep is no problem. Barnes is questionable, but I expect him to play as he played in the final preseason game as the Warriors beat the Lakers 136-97. They still got Iguodala who was shining in the playoffs and he can play the 3 position as well.
Dating back to last year, Golden State is 14-4 ATS their last 18 regular season home games laying single digits. That included a 112-85 win over New Orleans last year. To make it better, in these 18 games Golden State is averaging 111 points a game. With all the injuries to the New Orleans guards and their big men, I can't see them scoring over 100 in this game. The crowd is going to be rockin like always as they are putting up the NBA Championship banner pregame and will be passing out rings at halftime. When this crowd gets to going, the Splash Brothers tend to be right behind them. Take Golden State to get the cover.
Play on Game #474 Baltimore Ravens (Monday, 8:30 PM EST)
This is too many points for Arizona to be laying. While we faded Baltimore last Sunday, they were a road favorite and tonight this is the biggest underdog they have been since the 2012 season. Tonight the Ravens will be on Primetime TV and I think the extra day of rest paired in with the fact that they need this game like a hog needs slop will help them cover the spread. Another factor is the fact that the Ravens have yet to cover a spread this season at 0-5-1 ATS. We have faded Baltimore three times this season and have been victorious. But tonight I think that this line has been over-adjusted a bit because of the Ravens not being able to cover a spread this season and there is value on them in this game.
We want to play on Road teams (Baltimore) after 5 or more consecutive losses against the spread as these teams are 29-8 over the last 10 seasons, covering 78.4% of the time.
I will also note that ALL 6 of Baltimore's games this season have been decided by 6 or less points thus giving me more confidence that this will be another close game. The Ravens have had a lead in the 4th quarter in 3 of their losses.
Arizona is 0-4 ATS their last 4 Monday Night games. The Ravens have won three straight Monday Night games. (We don't need the win, just a cover). The Ravens have only been an underdog of more than 8 points in the Jim Harbaugh era and in that game the Ravens came away with a SU win against the Broncos in the 2012 playoffs. The Cardinals haven't laid this many points since the 2009 season. The last 5 matchups between these two teams have been decided by 8 or less points.
Look for the Ravens to keep this one close on Monday night and to get us the $$.
Play on Game #454 Saint Louis Rams (Sunday, 1:00 PM EST)
The Rams come into this game off a much needed bye week. I look for them to play their best game of the season here this Sunday
The Browns come into this game off back-to-back overtime games and are playing their 3rd road game in 4 weeks now. I think this is a bit of a letdown spot for them also after losing to the Broncos in overtime last week.
The Browns are dead last in rushing defense this season giving up 150 yards a game and 5 yards a carry. That is not good news for a Saint Louis team that, in my opinion, has the purest running back in the league in Todd Gurley. Gurley has been electric in his first two starts of the season. I wouldn't be surprised if Gurley runs for 200+ in this one and totes the rock at close to 30 times.
The Rams have had time to work in the off week on their offensive issues. On a positive note, the week before the bye, they intercepted Aaron Rodgers twice to break his streak. Honestly, the Rams had multiple chances to make the game close than the final score. On another positive note, I will note the Rams have held the Green Bay Packers and the Pittsburgh Steelers to season low in points.
The Rams have a front 4 to put pressure on the Cleveland quarterback Josh McCown. They will create havoc and I look for McCown to make some turnovers. McCown turned the ball over three times last week against the Broncos. The Rams have a defense comparable to the Broncos in my opinion. Also, McCown has went up against some lousy defenses in Baltimore, San Diego, and Oakland so I will somewhat his decent stats in these games.
Foles will have a good game here. Look for the offense to be much more efficient at home behind the running game. The defense will cause problems and get the offense in good field position. I'm seeing this game as a BLOWOUT. Lay the points with Saint Louis.
Play on Game #349 Tennessee Vols (Saturday, 3:30 PM EST)
The Vols come into this game off a week of rest and a win over Georgia two weeks ago that likely 'saved' their season. This is a Tennessee team that could very easily be 6-0 on the season as 3 of their losses came in the 4th quarter when they had double digit leads in all three of those games. If the Vols would have won those 3 games or at least two of them, they would not be such a big underdog today, thus giving us great value here.
Tennessee's 3 losses have been by 1, 4, and 7 points. The 7 point loss was to Oklahoma in overtime. They are averaging 37 ppg on the season with their lowest point total being 20 points against Arkansas. Arkansas held Alabama to 27 points, (3 points at halftime and 10 points through the 3rd quarter).
Alabama is 0-2 ATS this season at home vs. the SEC. Dating back to last season, the Vols last 9 losses have been by an average of 10 points. The Vols played Alabama last year and lost 34-20, covering as a 20 point dog. Amari Cooper had 224 yards receiving and 2 TD's. The Tide don't have Cooper this year and I think touchdowns will be harder to come by.
We took a loss last week fading Alabama. The truth about that game was the Texas AM threw (3) pick 6's. Take those 21 points away and we would have been looking at a 23-21 final score in favor of Texas AM. Alabama's offense only scored 21 points. Against 4 SEC opponents, Alabama has outgained them by only an average of 101 yards a game. I will say that should be about 10 points extra a game which is about where I have this game ending at.
Alabama is now 0-4 ATS at home this year. The lines are inflated and the offense is not as good as it was last year. I don't expect the defense to put up another performance like they did against Texas AM. The Aggies quarterback played scared last week. Joshua Dobbs, the Vols quarterback, is much more mobile with his feet. I look for him to make big plays to keep the chains moving. This is too many points for Alabama to be laying, especially coming off that big win last week and with their annual game vs. LSU coming up. Take the points with the Vols on Saturday.
Toledo comes into this game sitting fat at 6-0 coming off a big 43 point win over Eastern Michigan. Granted the Rockets are undefeated, but their win over Arkansas earlier in the season does not look that good now as the Razorbacks have struggled this season. I will also note that Arkansas outgained Toledo in that game by 197 yards. Also, Toledo got outgained by 172 yards against Iowa State. Now they are in conference play, the Rockets have become more dominant, but they have only played bottom tier teams with no offense (Ball State, Kent State, Eastern Michigan).
UMass comes into this game having played some worthy teams this season (Notre Dame, Colorado, Temple, and Bowling Green). Their best game was at home against Temple when they were a 13.5 point homedog and only lost 25-23 in a very close game. I look for this to be another close game.
UMass brought back 19 starters this season and they are coming off consecutive 'ATS' losses. My rationale here is that these experienced teams usually find a way to get a cover after not covering the previous two games. I think that UMass playing at home with revenge from last year's 42-35 loss, we can count on a strong effort from the Minutemen to get us the $$. UMass only got outgained last year by 27 yards on the yards vs. Toledo and got the cover as a 17.5 point road dog. The game was tied 35-35 before Toledo scored with 34 seconds left giving them the win. My point here is that is was a close game and that UMass has a lot of juniors and seniors on the team that will remember the loss and they will be playing with a chip on their shoulder this Saturday.
I mentioned Toledo is undefeated at 6-0. As the season continues, the pressure rises in college football, especially on the road. Toledo has a HUGE revenge game against Northern Illinois next week as they have lost the last 5 matchups against Northern Illinois. That game will have implications on who might win the MAC Eastern division. Then Toledo has Central Michigan and Bowling Green after that. So it is safe to say they have much bigger games on deck and their focus will be more on those teams.
Look for UMass to be the more motivated and focused team on Saturday afternoon. Toledo's quarterback Ely is still inconsistent and does not have the best arm. UMass has the better quarterback in this game along with possibly the best receiver in the MAC, Tajae Sharp. They have enough offense to stay in this game. I'll also count on the defense to make some plays in this one to keep it within single digits. Take UMass to get us the cover.
Play on Game #392 Arkansas (Saturday, 12:00 PM EST)
Arkansas is coming off a much needed bye week. They get RB Kody Walker back for this game and Walker can really help the running game explode. Walker had been out with a broken hand since week 2 and his return means a fresh back behind Alex Collins. Walker ran all over the defense in the fall scrimmage game and HC Bielema says the kid is a 'thousand yard' back. I think Walker can make a difference in this game.
The Razorbacks are back at home after having to play tough back-to-back road games at Tennessee and at Alabama. Arkansas held Alabama to only 3 points through the first half and 27 for the game. This is a defense that is only giving up 365 yards a game. They have the #15 rushing defense in the nation and that is important going against an Auburn team that thrives on the run.
Auburn just to be realistic is terrible this season. Their offense is down 130 yards from last season and they are scoring 10 points less a game. Sean White, a freshman quarterback, has looked exactly like a freshman as he has still yet to throw a touchdown pass. One reason being is that Auburn's best receiver, Duke Williams, got kicked off the team. Auburn has gotten outgained in 5 of their 6 games this season. They even got outgained at home against San Jose State by 64 yards! Last week it took everything they had to escape with a 3 point win at Kentucky.
Also, the Auburn defense is down this year 27 yards a game and they are allowing 197 rushing yards a game for 5.1 yards a carry. That is not good news considering Arkansas has one of the best rushing games in the nation.
Arkansas has more experience in this game, especially at the quarterback position with Brandon Allen who is a senior. This is double revenge for Arkansas and coming off a bye, I expect them to be motivated. Looking at the game last year, Artis-Payne and Duke Williams combined for 331 yards and 3 touchdowns for Auburn. Now both of those guys are gone and there is a big talent drop off.
Last year, Arkansas played their best game of the season possibly coming off a bye when they shut out LSU at home with a 17-0 win. HC Bret Bielema for Arkansas has publicly stated his hate for Auburn. He has had an extra week to prepare his team. Look for it to pay off with a BIG win and cover!
Overall, Arkansas is averaging 81 yards more a game than Auburn. Their defense is 61 yards better for a +142 yard net advantage. 142 extra yards is good for at least 10 points if not 14 points in my opinion and that's what I see Arkansas winning this game by. Take Arkansas to get the cover.
Play on Game #314 San Diego State (Friday, 10:30 PM EST)
Utah State is coming off HUGE win against Boise State last week. A win in which the Head Coach says that was the biggest win in school history. Now Utah State goes from being almost a 10 point homedog to a 5 point road favorite. This is a strong case of what I call role reversal and now we want to fade Utah State.
San Diego State comes into this game having outgained their last three opponents by 151, 229, and 320 yards. They have the 13th ranked defense in the nation only giving up 296 yards a game. The Aztecs are stout against the run only giving up 93 rushing yards a game. They are ranked 12th in the nation only allowing opponents to convert on 28% of 3rd downs. While San Diego State does not have the most powerful offense, they do have an efficient offense when in the red zone scoring on 94% of their drives in the red zone. San Diego State does have a QB in Maxwell Smith that played for Kentucky in the SEC. They have a 1st TM MW running back in Donnel Pumphrey and a dynamic punt and kickoff returner as well. I look for their special teams play to come up big in this game.
While Utah State is coming off a 52-26 against Boise, they were fortunate because Boise turned the ball over 8 times. The yardage was dead even in the game, so we saw a very misleading final score. Utah State is not nearly as good when playing on the road,and this is a big letdown game for them after getting their first win vs. a ranked team since 1991. Look for San Diego State to get the cover on Friday Night.
Play on Game #303 Seattle Seahawks (Thursday, 8:25 PM EST)
I like the Seahawks here on Thursday night. Seattle is coming off rare back to back losses. In the Pete Carroll era, Seattle has lost two or more consecutive games 8 times. The result is Seattle going 6-2 SU and ATS the next game. Fortunately for them, they are playing a divisional opponent in the 49ers that they have owned in the past.
Seattle is 5-1 SU against the 49ers the last 6 meetings. The average final score in those 5 wins is 26-8, winning by an average margin of 18 points.
While San Fran is coming off a win against the Ravens (Yes, we had the 49ers to cover that game), the truth is they still got outgained against the Ravens by 29 yards. To make it worse for the 49ers, they have been outgained in their last 5 games now by an average of 134 yards a game.
The 49ers have the 31st ranked overall defense in the NFL. They are getting gashed through the air and are giving up 4 yards a carry.
While Seattle does have 4 losses on the season, 3 of those losses have come against undefeated teams in Carolina, Cincy, and Green Bay. Furthermore, Seattle had a lead on Carolina last week in the 4th quarter, they were up 17 on the Bengals, they were beating Green Bay 17-16 on the road, and the Seahawks were beating the Rams on the road 31-24.
The Seahawks will have to close this game out tonight but they can do it against a 49er team that has trouble sustaining drives.
Seattle is a perfect 5-0 ATS their last 5 Thursday Night games and are 17-8-1 ATS in their last 26 games following an ATS loss. Take Seattle to get the cover on Thursday night.
Play on Game #276 Philadelphia Eagles (Monday, 8:30 PM EST)
It has taken the Philly offense some time with a new quarterback and running back to get into sync, but they are finally getting it going. I look for them to mash the gas on Monday Night playing at home against a Giants defense that has not improved at all. In fact, the Giants pass defense ranks last in the NFL and now they are without Prince Amukamara. Also the Giants have some linebackers listed on the injury report so clearly this is a banged up defense without a lot of depth that will be facing a hurry-up offense in the Eagles. Beason, the starting middle linebacker, got a concussion last week and starting ILB Kennard, is also listed as doubtful.
Also for the Giants, their receivers are not 100%. Reuben Randle is the 2nd option on the team and he is nursing a hamstring injury. Odell Beckham is also 50/50 to play on Monday Night. If they do play, how effective will they be? My thinking is that these guys won't be as effective as they will need to be to keep up in this game. The next trio of receivers for the Giants have only 55 career receptions between them and not a lot of chemistry with Eli Manning. Manning can only dink and dunk so many passes to Vereen and Donnell.
The Eagles have the best front 7 in the NFC East in my opinion which in effect has also helped out the secondary this season hauling in 6 interceptions. It's Monday Night and I can see Eli Manning throwing a few INT's here. The crowd noise will be loud and the Giants offensive line is still a work in progress. Look for Manning to be under pressure and to make mistakes.
The Eagles won both matchups last season rather easily. They won 27-0 at home and then 34-26 at New York. This is a series that Philly has owned historically now as they are 10-3-1 ATS the last 14 meetings . I will also note that the last 10 times Philly has beaten the Giants, they have covered the spread ALL 10 times. Given that, I certainly see the Eagles winning this game and the cover will follow.
Play on Game #274 Indianapolis Colts (Sunday, 8:30 PM EST)
The Patriots lines continue to get higher and higher. This Sunday they are now a heavier favorite against Andrew Luck and the Colts than they were against Brandon Weeden and the Cowboys.
I know the Colts have struggled during the early part of this football season, but they are getting healthier and are coming off B2B wins. They also have had a few extra days to prepare for this game since playing last Thursday night. Andrew Luck is expected to be ready to go in this one. I will also note this is big time revenge for the Colts after losing twice to the Patriots last season. Andrew Luck is winless for his career against the Patriots, but he has only played at home in one meeting. Last year, the Colts were a 3 point home favorite and now are getting a full 13 points more in this game. Last year in the Playoffs, the Colts lost in the 'Deflate Gate' game. This is a big game for the team as they have had this one circled on their calendar for a while. I expect the Colts to play their best game of the season Sunday night on Primetime TV.
The Colts offensive line is coming together as they played a lot better last Thursday against the Texans. The Patriots offensive line is hurting as they gave up 5 sacks against the Cowboys last week. With starting left tackle Nate Solder getting injured, there are now two starters on the O-line that are out.
The Colts defense is as healthy as they have been all season long. They have 3 new defensive starters on the D-line other than who started last season when the Patriots ran all over them and the Colts have been better at stopping the run this season, only giving up 3.8 yards a carry this season The Colts are only giving up 3.8 yards a carry this season which is a bit better than last year. The Patriots are giving up 4.7 yards per rush this season and Frank Gore has looked good the last two weeks. I think Gore can make some positive runs on the early downs to set up for manageable 3rd downs to keep the chains moving. The Patriots cornerbacks are not as good as last season without Revis and Browner. If they choose to double Hilton, then Andre Johnson and Philip Dorsett can capitalize.
Andrew Luck is 6-0 SU and ATS in his career as a home dog. The Patriots are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a double digit road favorite. Let's take the Colts at home Sunday Night to get us the cover!
Play on Game #272 San Francisco 49ers (Sunday, 4:25 PM EST)
The Ravens have to travel out on the West Coast where they already lost to the Oakland Raiders earlier this season. Now they are more banged up offensively and defensively.
The Ravens defense is a mess and their defensive coordinator is making some of the worst calls I have seen after watching them play the Browns last week. The loss of Terrell Suggs after Week 1 proved to be big. Now Elvis Dumervil is banged up. Will Davis is on the IR now also after tearing his ACL. Steve Smith is banged up, so is Justin Forsett. The Ravens might be playing this week without their two best pass-rushers, their top receiver and running back.
The 49ers are back at home and this team has been playing better actually the last two games. The 49ers held the Green Bay Packers to a season low 17 points two weeks ago and then almost had the Giants beat last week on the road.
The 49ers are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a homedog of 5 points or less. The 49ers were a 7.5 point homedog two weeks ago against the Packers and should had gotten the cover. The defense played great and I look for another strong outing from the defense on Sunday.
This is the Ravens 4th road game in 6 weeks now. The loss of Suggs has clearly hurt the defense. The Ravens have yet to cover a spread this year as they are 0-4-1 ATS. It took a gift to beat the Steelers basically. Then they lost in overtime last week. Clearly this is an unmotivated team traveling on the West Coast and playing the road favorite role, we find ourselves in a great spot to fade the Ravens.
Play on Game #264 Pittsburgh Steelers (Sunday, 1:00 PM EST)
The Steelers have momentum after rallying on Monday Night to go for the gusto and score a game winning touchdown. The Steelers are in a very good situation on Sunday playing Arizona, a NFC West team with an early start time. Pittsburgh is money in the bank when they play the NFC West at home. We already saw them crush the 49ers this season 43-18 earlier this season in the same type of situation.
Pittsburgh is 6-0 SU and ATS their last 6 home games vs. the NFC West. The average score in Pittsburgh's L6 home games vs. the NFC West is 30-8! The average line has been Pittsburgh -8.5. Now they are a 3.5 point homedog which is 12 points more than what the average line has been. Part of that is because Michael Vick playing quarterback. This will be Vick's 3rd start and he is getting more in tune with the offense. Another part is that Arizona is perceived to be a better team than what I see them as.
Vick actually led the Steelers last week on the road continuously across the 50 yard line. They had some drives stall out, but playing at home and against an Arizona defense that has key injuries, I expect them to score touchdowns and for them to cover the spread for us. Starting linebacker Alex Okafor is out. for Arizona. Backup Woodley has been limited in practice this week. Also backup linebacker Kenney Demens is out along with backup safety Chris Clemons. The loss of Okafor is huge to Arizona's pass rush.
This is an early start time for Arizona. They were fortunate to play at Detroit last week at 4:00 EST. This game will be at 1:00 EST. I will also note that Arizona has been outgained in both of their road games this season; by 91 against Detroit and by 35 at Chicago.
Martavis Bryant, who led the NFL with over 21 yards a catch last season, will be active on Sunday after a 4 game suspension to start the season. Bryant can stretch the field and will loosen up the running game. Vick will need to be accurate, but he is improving every game as he gets in more sync with his receivers. Bryant is also valuable in the red zone as he is a tall receiver at 6'5". Arizona's weakness on defense is their linebackers. LeVeon Bell can get in the second level and I look for him to break a few tackles and make a few long runs.
The Steelers are 7-1-2 ATS their last 10 tries as a homedog. The only time they were more than +3.5 was last year vs. the Colts when they were +5 at home and won the game straight up 51-34. Arizona is 1-5 SU their last 6 games on the road vs. the AFC North. Take the Steelers on Sunday to get us the cover!
Play on Game #213 Oregon Ducks (Saturday, 10:30 PM EST)
Oregon has been one of the best teams historically coming off a loss and they have owned the Washington Huskies in the past. Oregon is 14-0 SU the last 14 times they have come off a loss including a win and cover earlier this season @ Colorado. Oregon is 10-0-1 ATS the last 11 meetings vs. Washington. Oregon also has a bye week on deck and they are 13-0 SU in their last 13 games before a bye week.
While this year's Oregon team is a bit down, they still are the most talented team, even with Jeff Lockie as the quarterback. Washington has a freshman quarterback and really has only one reliable target to throw the ball too. Oregon still has one of the best running backs in the nation with Royce Freeman and there is no doubt in mind they will out score Washington in this game. I will also note there have been reports that Vernon Adams might play for Oregon. If Vernon Adams does indeed play, this game has even more value as Adams torched Washington last year for 7 touchdowns and 475 yards when he played for Eastern Washington.
Washington has a subpar offense at best. The defense has come up big at times, but the fact is it is still not a very talented defense. I think this is the most dynamic offense they will have faced this season in Oregon. I will also note this is a 'let down' game for Washington after beating USC as a double digit underdog. Now we have a clear case of role reversal as the Huskies are a home favorite and Oregon is going from being a double digit favorite to a small underdog.
We played on Oregon after they lost to Utah and we won. We played against them last week vs. Washington State and won. This week we are going right back with them to bounce back and get another cover vs. a team they have dominated in the past.
Play on Game #165 Missouri Tigers (Saturday, 7:30 PM EST)
I had Missouri last week vs. Florida and the offense just couldn't get going against a stingy Florida defense. The difference in this game is that the Georgia defense is soft as butter and the Bulldogs and emotionally deflated after opening up the season 4-0 and now losing their last two games. It was a tough loss for them last week after having a 17 point lead on the Vols only to lose the game and lose the nation's best running back in Nick Chubb.
This week Georgia is laying too many points and I will apply the 'Double Bubble Buster angle'. We want to Play Against any College Football favorite of less than 20 points from Game 6 out off two losses exact if they were undefeated prior to the losses versus a >.400 conference opponent off an ATS loss (Missouri). This angle has been a 92% winner the last 15 times it has been applied.
Missouri is playing with revenge from last year's 34-0 loss at home. That was a revenge game for Georgia as these teams have alternated wins since Missouri has come over to the SEC with the road team winning all 3, thus home field does not have an advantage in this series.
Looking at the game last year, Missouri Maty Mauk threw 4 INT. Mauk is suspended from the team now and freshmen Drew Lock is the better quarterback in my opinion. HC Pinkel will allow him to open up the playbook a bit more this Saturday.
Missouri is only allowing 275 yards a game this season. They are only allowing 2.9 yards per rush and only allowing 13.5 ppg which is less than the current spread.
The Georgia defense is down this season. They allowed Vandy to throw the ball all over the field. Alabama had their way with the Bulldogs and Tennessee outgained Georgia by 75 yards last week.
The loss of running back Nick Chubb is huge. Chubb was a work horse and I don't think his replacement Sony Michael is used to toting the rock 20+ times a game. Michael only had 64 carries last year.
Georgia is ranked 124th in the nation in 3rd down conversions at 29%. Their quarterback Grayson Lambert has not proved he can beat anybody with his arm either. Against Tennessee he completed 47% of his passes. Against Alabama he only completed 42% and against Vandy he completed 52%.
Georgia's special teams is also terrible this season as they are ranked 126th in kick off returns at 14.95 yards per return and are ranked 115th in punting 33.26 yards per punt.
Missouri is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a double digit loss at home and are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 road games. Missouri went 4-0 ATS as a road dog last season. This is the most points they have gotten since the 2012 season. Value play on Missouri. Take the Missouri Tigers to get the easy cover.
Play on Game #160 Texas AM (Saturday, 3:30 PM EST)
Texas AM comes into this game undefeated, playing with a week of rest, and playing with revenge from last year's 59-0 loss to Alabama. The 172 yards of total offense was the lowest amount since Kevin Sumlin has been the coach. This is a big time revenge game right here.
Texas AM has yet to leave the state of Texas now going into the 7th week of the season, thus giving them another huge advantage. Texas AM is 4-1 ATS this season. Alabama is just 2-4 ATS. I will also note that the Sumlin and the Aggies beat Alabama in 2012 when Johnny Manziel was the quarterback. I think the Aggies have a more balanced team this season, especially on defense. I also think that Alabama does not have as good of a team, especially on offense.
Jake Coker for Alabama is turnover prone. He has six interceptions on the season, four of those interceptions coming in SEC play.
Another note is defensive coordinator John Chavis for the Aggies. Chavis is one of the best DC's in the nation and he came from LSU. Looking at Alabama's last 5 games vs. LSU, Chavis has held them to 21 points or fewer in 4 of the last 5 matchups. Chavis will look to stop the run, much like Arkansas did, and make Alabama one dimensional. Texas AM has two of the best pass rushers in the nation to pressure Coker on third downs. Garrett and Hall have combined for 12.5 sacks, 16 tackles for loss, and 5 forced fumbles in The Aggies are holding opponents to a 29% conversion rate on 3rd downs.
Alabama tends to struggle against teams that can spread the ball out. Ole Miss carved the blueprint earlier this season and Texas AM has an offense similar to Ole Miss. The Aggies have three talented receivers and can line up 4 receivers with no problem.
Alabama is 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road favorite of 10 or fewer points. Last year they laid 4.5 at Ole Miss and the Rebels gave them a 23-17 loss. I look for a similar outcome on Saturday. This is the year that Texas AM wins the SEC West and they will prove it. Take Texas AM for the cover!
Play on Game #175 West Virginia (Saturday, 12:00 PM EST)
This is too many points as the linesmakers have been forced to inflate the lines for Baylor when they play at home and the public just further drives them up even more.
Baylor has yet to play a formidable defense. They have faced SMU, Lamar, Rice, Texas Tech, and Kansas. There are only 128 FBS teams. Kansas is ranked 127th, SMU 122nd, Texas Tech 123rd, and Rice113th in defensive yards given up a game.
West Virginia has the best defense in the BIG 12 in my opinion. They are ranked 26th in the nation giving up only 334 yards a game. While the Mountaineers are coming off B2B losses, they outgained Oklahoma State by 74 yards. In the loss @ Oklahoma, West Virginia had 27 first downs to only 16 for Oklahoma and ran 86 plays to only 58 for Oklahoma.
Another reason this will be a closer game than expected is because the Mountaineers have a balanced offense as the rushing attack is going for 224 yards a game while Howard is throwing for 266 a game.
West Virginia beat Baylor last year 41-27 and held them to 318 yards of offense. They held the Bears to only 95 yards rushing on 42 carries. This was not a fluke and the West Virginia defense is even better this season. They are only allowing opponents to convert on 28% of third downs. West Virginia is also ranked 13th in the nation in turnover margin. I look for them to control more of the clock in this game keeping Baylor's offense off the field and to make some big plays when needed to keep this spread within reach. Take West Virginia with the points.
Play on Game #111 Cincinnati Bearcats (Friday, 8:00 PM EST)
Cincinnati is playing with a week of rest. That is good news considering they are expected to have Mike Boone, Chris Moore, and Johnny Holton back in the lineup on offense. Boone is Cincy's best running back, averaging 9.6 yards a carry on the season. Moore is averaging 21 yards a catch and Holton is averaging 19 yards a catch. Holton and Moore also are also the team's best kick returners. These guys did not play against Miami (but Cincy still won the game). Now the offense is much more potent. Also Gunner Kiel is back healthy. While head coach Tubberville does not want to reveal who will be the starter, I have to think he gives Kiel the start on the road. Hayden Moore is the other quarterback and this kid can flat out sling the rock also. It's great they have two quarterbacks that can give defenses fits. Also, the BYU defense will have to prepare for both quarterbacks which is another advantage for us.
BYU has played one of the nation's toughest schedules and are playing on a short week of rest. This is also a BYU team that has been decimated by injuries. They are now on their 3rd string running back from what was planned before the season start. Also the quarterback now is a true freshman that might not be 100% in this game. Mangum got injured last game with a hamstring injury. If he reinjures his hammy this game, it will be another true freshman getting the call that went 1-for-5 last week with an INT.
Cincinnati has the #5 offense in the nation. They can beat you on the ground and through the air. While the defense has given up points, I like the fact they have been able to get off the field holding opponents to only converting 26% of the time on 3rd downs.
BYU's running game is down with the injury to QB Hill and the running backs as they only are running for 126 yards a game, ranked 110th in the nation. They also struggle on 3rd downs converting only 39% of the time. The offensive line has also given up 22 sacks on the season, ranked 124th in the nation.
BYU has either been trailing or tied in the 4th quarter in all 4 of their wins this season. When looking at this Cincinnati offense this season, they look good. They are big and athletic and remind me off an NFL team. Look for this one to come down to the wire and for the Cincinnati Bearcats to get us the $$!
Play on Game #104 New Orleans Saints (Thursday, 8:25 PM EST)
This is a divisional rivalry and you can throw out all the stats for this game. The bottom line is the Saints are in 'do or die' mode for this game while the Falcons are sitting fat and happy at 5-0.
We made a play on New Orleans two weeks ago when they were at home against Dallas and we got the win and cover. They then faltered at Philly last week, but remember this was a 10-7 game at halftime. The good news for this game is the Saints are back at home and are healthy on defense as they have Keenan Lewis, Jarius Byrd, and Ellerbe back. Rob Ryan has taken responsibility for the defense this season and I look for the players to step up tonight and make some plays to protect their coach.
While Atlanta is undefeated, this is a team that had to rally last week to beat the Redskins in overtime. They were down in the 4th quarter against the Cowboys who were playing their first game without Romo (Weeden winless last 10 starts), and were down on the road vs. the Giants before the G-Men blew that game.
Julio Jones is nursing a hamstring on a short week of rest. I have to think he will be on a 'pitch count' or used as a decoy. Roddy White is past his prime (caught 47% of targets) and Hankerson who has only caught 56% of his targets this season.
The Falcons starting center, Mike Person, is out for this game and is replacement is a guy that had struggled during the preseason at left guard. Also Justin Durant is expected to miss this game for the Falcons. Durant was the team's leading tackler and best linebacker.
Since 2005, the Saints have only been a homedog three times against the Falcons and they are 3-0 ATS in these three games. I see the Saints being plenty motivated for this game. The home crowd will be loud. There will be plenty of emotion in the Superdome. With the Falcons at 5-0 and the Saints at 1-4, this is a must win for the Saints while the Falcons are more concerned with staying healthy on a short week of rest.
Play on Game #472 Oakland Raiders (Sunday, 4:25 PM EST)
The Raiders are more comfortable now coming back as a homedog after being a small road favorite in their previous against the Bears. Sure, the Broncos are 4-0 on the season, but the truth is they have been involved in some very close games, that their defense has had to bail them out. I am not going to assume that the defense will just automatically win every game for them.
What I do know is that the Broncos are ranked 28th in the NFL with only 90 rushing yards a game. To be able to win on the road you need a running game and the Broncos don't have that. The Raiders on the other hand are averaging 4.4 yards a carry. Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree have formed a nice 1-2 combo for Derek Carr as well. Oakland actually has the better offense at 351 yards a game and 5.8 yards a play.
Petyon Manning and the Broncos have had their way with the division over the last three years, but this is the year that the offense is way down. Let's remember that Kansas City had the Broncos beat in Week 2 before the defense bailed them out. Through four games, the Broncos only have a +114 net yard advantage total. They got outgained by the Chiefs and marginally outgained the other three opponents.
The Broncos offensive line is banged up with three guys on the injury report to further put a damper on their running game and more pressure Peyton Manning will be under.
The Raiders head coach, Jack Del Rio was the DC at Denver last year. He knows this team and knows how to beat them. Look for the Raiders to come up big on Sunday. The Raiders are 4-0 ATS their Last 4 games as a homedog of 4 or more points. Take Oakland to get the $$.
Play on Game #457 Washington Redskins (Sunday, 1:00 PM EST)
The Redskins come into this game having outgained all 4 of their opponents this season and all 4 of their opponents in the preseason. The Redskins have the 4th ranked defense only giving up 288 yards a game this season and are only allowing their opponents to run 54 plays a game (leads the NFL). They are also only allowing opponents to convert on 31% of third downs which is #3 in the NFL.
The Falcons are sitting fat at 4-0 now on the season, but this is a team that has been outgained in 6 of their last 8 games with preseason included. I still have questions about this defense also. The Falcons let the Cowboys run for 4 touchdowns vs. them. Last week vs. the Texans, the Falcons got lucky to get off to a fast start and never had a challenge. Houston's defense looked terrible and so did the quarterback. I think it's safe to say that the Redskins defense will play much better and so will the quarterback.
Washington is playing with momentum after rallying to beat the Eagles last week to give Cousins his first career game winning drive. I think this gives the team confidence along with Cousins.
Kyle Shanahan used to be the offensive coordinator for the Redskins. Now he is the OC for the Falcons. The Redskins still have some defensive players on the team that were there when Shanahan was. I think they have an advantage here on how to slow down his offensive system.
Not to take anything away from the Falcons, but now starting the season at 4-0, the linesmakers keep making more adjustments to them, now in our favor. For the Falcons to lay more points to the Redskins on Sunday than what they did to the Texans is ridiculous. The Redskins have a Top 5 defense and an offense that likes to run the ball and take time off the clock which leads to fewer possessions for the opposing team. Take the Redskins to get the cover.
Play on Game #463 Saint Louis Rams (Sunday, 1:00 PM EST)
Green Bay is 4-0 SU and ATS this season. They are the public's favorite team to bet on each week. I rode with the Packers the first two weeks then faded them the last two, coming up on the losing end.
This week Green Bay is flying back home from the West Coast after beating the 49ers. That was a big win for them vs. the 49ers as it was a team they had struggled against in the past. Now they are back at home and this is a let-down spot for them. The Packers have no motivation to cover this game. And trust me, Vegas does not want them to cover either. That's why this line is already inflated to begin with.
What I like about the Rams is they have one of the best pass rushes in the NFL and that is a key to be able to beat Green Bay; to be able to rush the quarterback without being too blitz heavy. The Packers do have a few weak spots on the offensive line and Robert Quinn will be able to get to Aaron Rodgers.
Green Bay will play more of a conservative game here running the ball since Rodgers won't have as much time in the pocket. Also WR Adams is not expected to play and we know Jordy Nelson is out.
The Rams got Todd Gurley going last week as he exploded for 146 yards on 19 carries. Gurley makes Nick Foles and the whole team better. He is that special of a player. Nick Foles has played at Lambeau Field one other time and it was a 27-13 win as Philly beat Green Bay. He will be confident here. Green Bay is ranked 30th in the NFL giving up 4.8 yards a carry. Jeff Fisher for the Rams is one of my favorite underdog coaches of all time. This line has clearly been inflated. Take the Rams for the cover.
Play on Game #390 Missouri Tigers (Saturday, 7:30 PM EST)
Missouri is 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS vs. the Florida Gators since coming over to the SEC. Missouri has been an underdog in all three matchups, including a 36-17 straight up win as a 3 point homedog in 2013.
Missouri is a live dog on Saturday night while Florida is coming off a big win vs. Ole Miss. Big Win's = Big Letdowns. Not to mention that Florida has a big revenge game vs. LSU on deck. This is a huge trap/sandwich game for them and HC Pinkel for Missouri is known for coming up big in these type of games. Let's not forget this is a Missouri team that has been to the SEC Championship game two years in a row.
Let's also not forget this is a Florida team that barely beat East Carolina at home this season, 31-24, only outgaining them by only 40 yards. Let's not also forget that the Gators only beat Kentucky by 5 points, 14-9, and only outgained the Wildcats by 4 yards. Yes, Florida only scored 14 points at Kentucky; a team they have owned in the past. The Gators received a gift from the Vols and beat them by 1 point, but got outgained by 27 yards and got out played in my opinion.
And for last week: Florida beat Ole Miss 38-10 but only outgained them by 27 yards. The truth about that game was that Ole Miss just played terrible. The Rebels had lost 3 fumbles and threw 1 interception and the Gators quarterback couldn't miss. My point is that Florida played a perfect game and Ole Miss played what will likely be their worst game of the season.
Our reward: An inflated line for this game as there has been an over-correction in my opinion by the linesmakers. The Gators were a 3 point road favorite against a terrible Kentucky team and now are laying more points vs. a team that has went to B2B SEC Championship games.
Missouri has not allowed a point in the 2nd half in their last 3 games. They have a solid defense line, experienced linebackers, and a much improved secondary. The Missouri Tigers are only giving up 12 ppg through their first 5 games now.
The Tigers offense has struggled a bit this season, but quarterback Maty Mauk was the main reason. He has now gotten suspended and Pinkel has called on Drew Lock to be his guy. Lock completed 75% of his passes last week with 2 TD/ 0 INT in the win vs. South Carolina. Scouts say they like what they have seen from Lock and he has drawn high praise from the players and coaches. Also Russell Hansbrough is healthy now at the running back position. The offensive line also played a lot better last week.
The Gators offense is still a work in progress, especially playing on the road in the SEC. Will Grier is the Gators QB. He is a rFR so this guy is still young. His first road start was at Kentucky and was not impressive (13-for-22 for 125 yards with 0 TD/ 1 INT). This will only be his 2nd career road start and is on cloud nine after beating Ole Miss. I also think that the Gators offensive line will be overpowered by the Tigers in this game.
Let's take Missouri as a hungry homecoming homedog to get us the $$ on Saturday.
Play on Game #398 Kansas State (Saturday, 7:30 PM EST)
These are the types of games that Kansas State head coach Bill Snyder lives and dies for. Snyder is known for having his team ready to play when inserted as an underdog, especially at home.
Kansas State is 5-1 ATS since 2011 as a homedog. Last year they got the cover vs. #5 Auburn. In 2013, they got the cover vs. #15 Baylor. Bill Snyder is one of the best winning coaches at home of all time, and he is money in the bank when coming off a loss covering at a 65% rate and an even better 82% rate when coming off a loss and playing at home.
TCU is now 2-8 ATS as a road favorite since joining the BIG 12, including 0-2 ATS this season. This year on the road they beat Minnesota only by 6 and beat Texas Tech by 3. Dating back to last season, there have only been two road games that TCU has won by more than 6 points and that was @ SMU and @ Texas last season (2 terrible teams).
TCU's defense is still decimated by injuries. They have had 14 players this season make their first college start. TCU was neck and neck with SMU late in that game, at home. They were neck and neck with Texas Tech. And if Minnesota had any type offense, then the Gophers could have came away with an upset in Week 1.
TCU is allowing 174 rushing yards a game this season compared to 109 (2.8 ypr) last season.
TCU missed 22 tackles last week. The linebackers are young. Kansas State will make them pay if they can't tackle.
Kansas State has allowed 22.2, 22.9, and 23.2 points a game over the last 3 years. This year they are giving up 18 ppg through the first 4 games and are only giving up 71 yards a game rushing (ranked #3). Kansas State has allowed an average of only 15.2 ppg their last 9 home games dating back to last season. The most points they gave up was 28 to UTEP, but they scored 58 to secure the win easily.
Kansas State is 3-1 on the season. They lost by 2 points last week or they could be undefeated going into this game. The officials made a bad call in that game last week vs. Oklahoma State and later acknowledged it. I wouldn't doubt if they made a few 'make-up' calls in this game favoring Kansas State.
Kansas State has an electric returner in Morgan Burns. Kansas State is ranked #1 in the BIG 12 in kickoff returns. QB Joe Hubener is averaging 17 yards a completion this season. This offense can strike when needed.
I'll put TCU on upset alert this Saturday. We don't need Kansas State to win the game though, all we need is a cover. Take Kansas State with the points.
Play on Game #373 Northwestern (Saturday, 3:30 PM EST)
I've had a good feel on both of these teams all season long. I was high on both teams before the season started, and both teams have been living up to my expectations.
I like Northwestern in this game as a live dog. The Wildcats come into this game a perfect 5-0 on the season, including 2-0 SU when inserted as an underdog and these are the reasons:
On offense, Northwestern has improved their running game by 111 yards a game and are converting on 49% of 3rd downs. And this is a disciplined team that only commits an average of 4 penalties in the game (4th best in the nation). They are only allowing 7 ppg which is #1 in the nation and only allowing opponents to convert on 20% of 3rd downs. Overall, the Wildcats have the #5 ranked defense in the nation. I have been very impressed with their front 7 and they matchup good with the Wolverines in this contest.
Michigan's quarterback Jake Rudock has more interceptions than touchdowns this season at 6/5. Michigan doesn't have any special recievers. They rely on their run game on the tight end for the most part. Northwestern has the talent up front to compete in this one.
Michigan has not allowed a point in the last two games and they have a stingy defense as well. But one of their starting 'BUCK' linebacker just got lost for the season. Mario Ojemudia was a senior that was 3rd on the team in tackles, 2nd in tackles for loss, and had two sacks.
Michigan has won the last 4 matchups in this series, so this is big time revenge for the upperclassmen on this Northwestern team. Three of the last 4 have been decided by 7 points or less with two of them going into overtime.
The last three times these teams have met, we have seen very close games with two of them going into overtime. Last year the final score was 10-9. 2013 Michigan won 27-19 in 3 OT. 2012 Michigan won 38-31 in OT also. The total yardage in each of these last 3 games has all been very equal as well. This is triple revenge for Fitzgerald and his troops and I look for him to have his team ready.
Michigan had the advantage of playing Oregon State, UNLV, and BYU all at home with an early start time as the West Coast teams 'body clock' was out of sync. Northwestern is used to playing in the afternoon and this 3:30 PM EST start time won't be a problem for them.
By this being a defensive type of game, the points in this game are even more valuable as a lower score is expected.
Northwestern had two wins last year over ranked teams (Notre Dame, Wisconsin). They also beat Penn State on the road as a double digit dog. Michigan is 2-9 vs. ranked teams since 2012.
Michigan has a big game vs. Michigan State on deck next week. This is a double revenge game for the Wolverines. While they will be somewhat focused for this game, more of their attention will be focused on rival Michigan State.
This is a game that has BLOWOUT written all over it.
Washington is starting a true freshman quarterback making his first PAC 12 road start. He has been sacked 10 times and Washington averages seven negative plays from scrimmage (105th in the nation). They have three freshmen and one sophomore starting on the offensive line. The Huskies leading receivers are the running back and the tight end. Those lil dink and dunk passes won't get the job done vs. USC. The Huskies will try to make it an ugly game, but that effort won't work after the first quarter. Look for USC to be blitz heavy and for their outside linebackers to wreak havoc.
Washington lost six of their seven starters on their defensive front 7 from last year. Four of those players were selected in the 1st or 2nd rounds of the draft.
USC has a senior quarterback in Cody Kessler (15 TD/ 1 INT) with a 73% completion rate. The running backs are averaging 5.4 yards a rush behind an offensive line that returned all of their starters from last year.
This is a warm up game before facing Notre Dame and Utah. USC has had an extra week to get rest and get prepared. They had a solid showing @ Arizona State two weeks ago, shaking off the loss to Stanford.
Washington does not have enough offense to keep it within the spread. I don't care how conservative they try to play. USC can strike quick and will strike quick. The Huskies don't have enough depth on the defensive side.
Washington got outgained by 222 yards at home vs. Cal and the Bears were without their top running back, Lasco. It could have been worse and the 30-24 final score doesn't reflect how bad they got beaten. Washington also got outgained by 158 yards to Boise State who was starting a true freshmen QB. USC has a senior quarterback with a much more potent offense than Boise.
Look for USC to win convincingly on Thursday night.
Play on : Game #278 Seattle Seahawks (Monday, 8:30 PM EST)
The Lions are 0-3 SU and ATS this season averaging only 18 ppg while giving up 27 ppg. They are last in the league rushing the football behind a poor offensive line. Stafford is taking a beating and Megatron is not nearly as effective as he once was.
The Seahawks defense is starting to get back how they were last year with Kam Chancellor back in the lineup. Graham is building chemistry with Wilson also and the offense is looking good. Lynch is a no go, but Rawls appears to be able to tote the rock just fine. Lockett is explosive in the return game as well.
Seattle has Cincinnati and Carolina on deck (2 undefeated teams). They know they need to win this game and they won't take their foot off the gas.
The Lions are 0-10-1 ATS their L11 road games vs. the NFC West. Look for this trend to continue playing in the loudest outdoor NFL stadium.
Play on Game #726 New Orleans (Sunday, 8:30 PM EST)
The Saints are desperate at 0-3 to get the city of New Orleans a win. Fortunately they are playing at home in the Superdome and will have Drew Brees back under center. And to make it even better, they are playing a wounded Dallas team.
In 6 games vs. the Cowboys, Drew Brees has completed 69.6% of his passes for 16 TD to only 3 interceptions. Brandon Weeden for the Cowboys has lost his last 9 starts in the NFL.
With Dez Bryant out with injury and Demarco Murray off to Philly, Weeden doesn't have the weapons to consistently sustain drives.
New Orleans defense appears to be getting healthier as well. Their top cornerback, Keenan Lucas, is expected back in the lineup.
The Saints will look to get Ingram and CJ Spiller plenty of touches in this game. That will open up the offense for some shots down the field. The Cowboys are still missing some of their starters on the defense also (McClain, Hardy, and Gregory)
I think is the Saint's coming out party. Their backs are against the wall and have a favorable matchup here against a Dallas team that is wounded like a duck. Romo and Bryant are worth every bit of 7-10 points. They will be missed here. Take New Orleans -3.
Play on Game #273 Saint Louis Rams (Sunday, 4:25 PM EST)
The Rams come into this game sitting at 1-2 on the season and have a road game @ Green Bay before a bye week in Week 6. The Rams know they cannot afford to be 1-3 before going to Green Bay and then potentially be 1-4 heading into the bye week.
Now the question is: Do the Rams have enough talent to hang with the Cardinals? I feel they certainly have enough talent and we only need a cover, not necessarily a win. The Cardinals have not faced a front seven that is as talented as the Rams. The Rams will put pressure on Palmer and he will not have as much time to stand in the pocket and make the deep throws down the field. Also, the Rams secondary is better than what they are given credit for. They have only given up 2 touchdowns in the air. They have been unlucky as there have not been any drops and no incompletions when they do hit the quarterback. Look for those stats to average out and for there to be more dropped passes, throw aways, and more incompletions.
The Cardinals are 3-0 with wins over the Saints, Bears, and 49ers who are a combined 2-7 SU on the season. They only outgained the Saints by 19 yards and actually got outgained by 35 yards vs. the Bears with Jimmy Clausen playing the 2nd half.
I noted last week that the Cardinals had either lost the game or won by 3 points or less the last 5 times after winning their previous game by 20 or more points. Well, they broke this trend last week, but it was more because the 49ers quarterback gave the game away.
The Rams have been working this week in practice by throwing in a few 'wrinkles' to ignite the offense. We will also see more out of Todd Gurley running the ball. Head Coach Jeff Fisher is one of the best underdog coaches in the NFL covering at a 59% rate for his career.
Arizona is 3-0 ATS on the season and along with covers, comes a bit of inflation and more favor from the public. Let's fade the public this Sunday and take the Rams to get the cover.
Play on Game #270 San Fran 49ers (Sunday, 4:25 PM EST)
Green Bay is playing on a short week of rest after playing on Monday Night and have to fly out to the West Coast for this game.
San Fran is coming off back-to-back losses by 40 points and 25 points. Nobody wants to take them this week, but I do. NFL Homedogs off a 40 points loss are 10-2-1 ATS the last 13 instances that this angle has been applied. The rationale is the team just got embarrassed and tends to play with much more pride and respect on their home field.
The 49ers got off to a bad start last week as Kaepernick as he threw 2 pick six's. He will play better against Green Bay. San Fran is 4-0 straight up the last 4 meetings vs. Green Bay. San Fran has outgained Green Bay in ALL of these matchups as well. Kaepernick has played in the last 3 matchups. His total stats read: 60-for-100 (60%) with 6 TD/ 2 INT. He also has 30 rushes for 300 yards, averaging 10 yards a rush against this Green Bay defense!
Green Bay has struggled against the 49ers in the past. While this might not be the same 49er team as in the last few years, they still have Kaepernick who has given them fits.
The 49ers have a great defensive coordinator in Eric Mangini. I believe the 49ers will get more pressure on Rodgers than what he has seen his first three games. They have responded with their defense in the past when a big dog off a bad game. The Packers tend to play more conservative on the road and are not profitable when laying 7 or more points on the road. The Packers are just 3-7 ATS on the road when laying 7 or more points (0-3 ATS as a 9.5 -10 point road favorite)
The 49ers are expected to get Reggie Bush this week. He can help take pressure off Kaepernick and make plays for the offense.
This is a case of big time role reversal. Green Bay was a 5.5 point dog in 2013 @ San Fran(Lost). Were a 3 point dog in 2013 playoffs (Lost), and were a 3 point road dog in 2012 playoffs (lost). Now almost a two touchdown swing in the line is too much for this Sunday. San Fran is 5-0-1 ATS their L6 games as a homedog. Take San Francisco to get the cover.
The Giants come into this game 1-2. They could possibly be 3-0 and I guarantee you this line would not be this high if so. I had the Giants pegged wrong last week vs. the Redskins. I strongly after watching them last Thursday (and the first two games), that this team is headed in the right direction.
The Bills come into this game at 1-2. The loss was vs. the Patriots when Brady and Company decided to take advantage of the one weakness for the Bills, and that's their secondary. I look for the Giants to do the same thing.
This is Eli Manning's 2nd year in the West Coast offense and he is putting up much more consistent numbers. The Giants are averaging 26 ppg through the first 3 games. They are converting 48% on 3rd downs. Manning has 4 TD's on the season and has yet to throw an interception. Reuben Randle finally woke up against the Redskins and gave the Giants the production they were looking for.
The Bills are banged up with their two star offensive players, Sammy Watkins and LeSean McCoy. While Tyrod Taylor has looked great, the Giants have faced other dual threat QB's in the past (Russell Wilson, Kaepernick, and Michael Vick). The Giants are expected to get Robert Ayers back for Sunday and he can help contain Taylor. Also Rodgers-Cromartie is expected to be back for this game after missing last Thursday vs. the Redskins. Cromartie's replacement, Jayron Hosely, played ball with Tyrod Taylor at Virginia Tech and I think that he can help prep his teammates a bit on how to contain Tyrod Taylor, etc.
The Giants have had long term success vs. the AFC East as they are 9-1 SU their L10 . On the road vs. the AFC East, the Giants are 8-1 SU their L9. Dating back to 1987, the Giants have played 4 times @ Buffalo. The result are that the Giants are 2-2 SU in these games, but the two losses were by 1 and 3 points.
Buffalo only outgained the Dolphins last week by 37 yards. They only outgained the Colts by 38 yards. In their loss, they got outgained by the Patriots by 158 yards. The win vs. the Colts looked great at the time (and we had Buffalo in that game). But the Colts have looked terrible through their first 3 games. The win last week vs. the Dolphins (who struggled vs. the Redskins and lost to the Jaguars) doesn't look that good.
I personally think the Bills will cash more tickets than not this season, but not today. With them coming off B2B divisional games and facing a Giants team that has had a few extra days to rest and prepare, look for the Giants to get the cover on Sunday.
Play on Game #255 Houston Texans (Sunday, 1:00 PM EST)
What happens when the Atlanta Falcons start the season off 3-0? You guessed it...They are now an overpriced favorite against a Houston Texans team that ranks in the Top 12 in offense and defense.
While we were on the Falcons last week (and won), the truth is they had to rally to beat a Dallas team that had numerous key injuries. The Falcons also had to rally to beat the Giants and they also were fortunate to get past the Eagles who started off slow and ended up losing the game in the 4th quarter. All and all, the Falcons have played 3 close games and do not have the defensive talent to be laying this many points.
The Falcons don't have an answer for JJ Watt. The Texans are holding opponents to a 21% conversion rate on 3rd downs. Mallett is looking better and this will be his 3rd game in a row to start. Alfred Blue is coming off a big game where he had 139 yards and a TD. The receivers (Hopkins, Shorts, and Washington) are starting to get in sync with Mallett also.
The Texans are playing with temp this season, actually the #1 paced offense in the NFL, but they still rely on the running game for their 'bread and butter'. The Texans have a great chance in getting Arian Foster back this week and also their best offensive lineman, Duane Brown.
The Falcons are still not a great defensive team and appear to be soft for the Texans that is a lot more physical on the offensive and defensive line. This is a tough spot for the Falcons who are over-priced and about due for a loss. Look for the Texans to get the cover on Sunday.
Play on Game #142 Texas AM (Saturday, 7:30 PM EST)
Texas AM is playing at home and with revenge from last year's 48-31 loss to Mississippi State. Mississippi State is playing their 2nd of back-to-back road games in the SEC vs. a team with revenge. Texas AM has a bye week coming up. They will be playing focused with nothing in their way.
Looking at the last 3 years that Texas AM has played Mississippi State, they have accounted for 526, 537, and 693 yards of offense against the Bulldogs. It is apparent that the Aggies know how to move the football and score points in this matchup. The last 3 meetings Texas AM has scored 31, 41, and 38 points for an average of 40 points a game.
The difference in this year's Texas AM team and the team from 2013 and 2014 is the improvement of the defense. Defensive Coordinator John Chavis has really got this defense playing good football. The Aggies are holding opposing teams to a 28% conversion rate on 3rd downs.
This is Texas AM' s 5th game of the season and they have yet to leave the state of Texas thus another advantage for us. As noted earlier, this is Mississippi State's back to back road games for Mississippi State and their 3rd road game in 5 weeks now.
While Mississippi State is coming off a win last week, they got outgained by Auburn by 63 yards. (An Auburn offense that is really struggling) While Auburn should have won and covered that game, they didn't. The difference here is that Texas AM is scoring on 87% of their drives in the red zone and have 3 of the best receivers in the SEC.
I still feel the Bulldogs are bit overrated. I do not think their defense is as good as advertised. Tonight's game will put their defense to the test. Texas AM has the most high powered offense they have seen this season. Yes, the Aggies have a much more balanced offense than LSU and Auburn. This team can score in bunches. The Aggies have three talented receivers. The running game is improving as well and Mississippi State does not have a deep defensive line and their linebackers are down a notch also.
I will also note that the Bulldogs secondary was their big weakness last year. They have been fortunate not to face a team that can totally exploit their secondary yet this season, but the Aggies have the receivers and a QB in Kyle Allen that will exploit it.
In finalizing this game, we have the '12th man' on our side today at College Station Texas. The Aggies are playing with legit revenge and have much more experience on both sides of the ball. This is a kill spot for HC Kevin Sumlin. We are getting great value also with this line being lower than what it should be because of the perception on Mississippi State being better than what they really are.
Play on Game #151 Arizona State (Saturday, 7:30 PM EST)
I like Arizona State as a double digit dog on Saturday night. If there is such a thing as a 'value' play, this is it my friends.
Arizona State is 0-4 ATS this season and has fallen out of favor with the public. UCLA is 4-0 SU and is starting to get over-hyped and with hype comes inflated lines.
Let's look at last week's games: Arizona State lost to USC 42-14. Looking closer they only got outgained by 1 yard. UCLA beat Arizona 56-30 but only outgained Arizona by 29 yards. We had Arizona in that game and their QB got knocked out in the 2nd quarter and the Wildcats had 3 turnovers in the first half. My point is that both of these games could have been much closer than what the final score indicated. Because of the misleading final scores, now the line is inflated and we are going to jump on Arizona State.
Arizona State has a very experienced team on offense and defense. They have a head coach in Todd Graham that is in his 4th year with the program. The quarterback is efficient with 7 TD/ 1 INT and has declared this is a 'must-win' for the team. The Sun Devils have a senior receiver that played 3 years at UCLA. He will be eager to shine on his former team. Foster got moved to wide receiver to make room for Demario Richards, but still does get some touches out of the backfield.
Arizona State has an elusive defense. They like to blitz a lot and I think this will cause problems for the UCLA freshman quarterback Josh Rosen. Rosen already has 4 INT on the season. Let's also remember that UCLA is now 3 defensive starters for the season, including Myles Jack who was the 'quarterback' of the defense.
Arizona State has outgained UCLA in ALL of the last 6 matchups. While the Arizona offense appears to be down a bit this season, there is still plenty of talent and they are only averaging 11 yards less than last season. UCLA is only averaging 14 yards more than last season. My point here is that Arizona State has outgained UCLA in all of the last 6 matchups and I don't see any reason why they won't be able to do it again, especially with the UCLA defense a bit wounded.
UCLA is off a big win as a road favorite and have a bigger revenge game vs. Stanford on deck...A Stanford team that has beaten them 7 times in a row. Look for UCLA to get caught looking ahead and for Arizona State to get the cover.
Play on Game #177 Washington State (Saturday,4:00 PM EST )
The line is a bit too high for this Cal team that is playing a rested Washington State team that has been a great bet as a double digit road dog as of late.
Washington State is playing with revenge from last year's 60-59 loss. It was a tough loss for the Cougars. They outgained the Cal Bears heavily, 812-589, but lost a heartbreaker. Down by 1 point with 19 seconds left, the field goal kicker missed a chip shot from 19 yards. (Washington State is using a new FG kicker this season that is 5-for-6, including 2-for-2 from 40-49 yards.)
Washington State has had an extra week to prepare and I have the feeling that HC Mike Leach will have his Cougar team play their best game of the season here.
Quarterback Luke Falk has looked sharp this season with 8 TD/ 1 INT, completing 73% of his passes to 5 receivers that have 12 catches or more. Washington State returns all 5 offensive line starters from last season. They should be able to protect Falk in this game and let him run the 'air raid' offense and keep this game within a 10-13 point range.
The Washington State is not the best, but we don't need them to be spectacular. Washington State did get a couple of JUCO transfers this season on the defensive side that have been contributing. We just need this defense to be respectable and Mike Leach (calls his own plays) will keep them in this game.
Washington State was 3-9 SU last year but actually had a +76 yard net advantage over their opponents. My point here is that they had some bad luck and made too many turnovers. Statistically speaking, they are more than capable of keeping this game within the spread.
Cal comes into this game 4-0 and has a big game vs. Utah next week. This is a big game as Utah just beat Oregon and I can guarantee you Cal wants to beat Utah for temporary bragging rights of the PAC 12. This is also a homecoming game for Cal. That's another reason why this line is inflated a couple extra points, and this game has 'trap' written all over it.
Washington State is 4-1 ATS the last 5 matchups vs. Cal as a double digit dog. Three of those four covers were games where Washington State lost by 7 points or less. Since 2008, Cal has only been a double digit home favorite in Conference play 8 times. This is not a favorable spot for them. Last year, Cal laid 13.5 points at home and barely won, 59-56.
While I'm not taking anything away from this Cal team; I strongly feel this is too many points to be laying in this game. The road team has been covering the $$ this season in PAC 12 play also (6-0 SU and ATS) and I want to stick with the trend. (2 road dogs have won straight up- Stanford @ USC and Utah @ Oregon). Take the double digits with Washington State.
Play on Game #118 Ball State (Saturday, 3:00 PM EST )
Ball State comes into this game playing with revenge from last year's 34-23 loss at Toledo. This is Ball State's homecoming game and they have 18 returning starters from last year's team, including a very experienced offensive line, maybe the best O-line in the MAC. Ball State won 9 games in 2012 and 10 games in 2013 under Pete Lembo. In 2013, Ball State won this game 31-24 as a 1 point home favorite.
Lembo is a great coach and has his team looking better than in 2014. The offense is up 70 yards from last season, mainly behind a stronger running game that is averaging 232 yards a game/ 5.6 yards per rush.
Toledo had 318 rushing yards last season vs. Ball state. That won't be the case this week. Toledo lost ALL 5 of their offensive line starters from last season and their offense is down from last season.
Ball State has gotten a spark with quarterback Riley Neal, as he replaced Jack Milas. He has 3 touchdowns and no interceptions this season and has given the offense another threat to run the ball as he is averaging 6.2 yards a rush. Ball State has 4 receivers with 10 or more catches with Jordan Williams (2nd TM MAC) leading the way with 23 catches for 347 yards.
Ball State has 3 senior starters that return on the defensive line. They also returned the most starts at linebacker in the MAC. The secondary is a bit young, but their strength is up front and that matches up well against Toledo's offense that likes to run the ball.
After playing three consecutive road games, Ball State will be excited to be back in front of their home crowd for homecoming. Ball State has 10 seniors and 7 juniors starting on the team. After playing legit defenses on the road vs. Texas AM and Northwestern, Ball State is now battle tested and should be able to move the ball more easily vs. a lesser Toledo defense.
Toledo's quarterback, Phillip Ely is only completing 48% of his passes through 3 games with 2 TD/ 2 INT. The Rockets run game is also down from 5.8 yards a carry last season to only 4 yards this season.
While Toledo is 3-0 on the season, they got outgained by 172 yards against Iowa State and by 197 yards against Arkansas. 16 trips inside the red zone, Toledo has only 8 touchdowns and 4 field goals. Receivers have dropped at least seven passes two weeks in a row. Toledo is 7th in the MAC in ppg, 10th in total offense, and 12th in passing efficiency.
Injury note: Toledo running back Kareem Hunt didn't play last week and the team is treading carefully with him. They come into this game at 3-0, and I imagine the coaches will lean towards letting his hamstring heal a bit more and not play him in this tough game.
Look for Ball State to be the more motivated team this Saturday. Also, look for the strength of their offensive line to pave the way while Toledo struggles to move the ball behind their inexperienced offensive line. Take Ball State to get the cover.
Play on Game #150 Tulsa Hurricane (Saturday, 12:00 PM EST)
I like this Tulsa team with the points at home on Saturday afternoon. I was high on Tulsa before the season started and they have not disappointed going 3-0 ATS.
Tulsa returns 98% of their offense from last season. Houston only returns 65% of their offense. Tulsa returns 8 players that were a 1st Tm, 2nd Tm, or 3rd Tm selection in the AAC last season. Houston lost 4 players from last season that were 1st, 2nd, or 3rd Tm selection in the AAC.
Tulsa enters this game fresh off a bye week and is playing with revenge from last year's 38-28 loss. The game was actually tied 28-28 halfway through the 4th quarter. Tulsa was on the road and were playing a back-to-back road games. I will also note they were only 2-8 SU going into this game so they had nothing to play for. This season, Tulsa is 2-1 SU and coming off a confidence building close game vs. Oklahoma. They have had an extra week to rest and prepare more for this game.
Houston lost their top 2 receivers from last season. Their starting senior LG is out with an injury. Basically this is an offense that depends on their quarterback, Greg Ward, way too much in my opinion. I think that the extra week of preparation will help Tulsa draw up a plan to slow down Ward.
Tulsa head coach Philip Montgomery was the OC at Baylor and was also the OC at Houston from 2003-2007, so he has ties with the Houston Cougars. I will note that not only did he lead Baylor to one of the nation's highest powered offenses over the last several years, he also led Houston to the 4th ranked offense in 2007, averaging 513 yards a game. Not only does Montgomery have ties to Houston, so do numerous other Tulsa coaches. Their Co-offensive coordinator played tight end and tackle for Houston and was a grad assistant in 2006. Tulsa's offensive quality control coach started 37 straight games for Houston from 2006-2008 and was an offensive analysist for the Cougars in 2014. Running backs coach played for Houston's coach, Tom Herman, at Rice and was an offensive graduate assistant under Herman at Iowa State. There are a lot of ties here that these Tulsa coaches have with Houston or with their head coach Tom Herman.
Houston is 3-0 on the season, but with wins over Tennessee Tech and Texas State, that is not saying very much. They did beat Louisville on the road, but with Louisville being 0-3 currently and with an offense that looks terrible, that is not saying a lot either. I will also disregard Houston's defensive stats a bit. They have wins over 3 bottom tier offenses (including Louisville). Tulsa has one of the highest powered offenses in the nation that is run on tempo and different formations.
Let's take the fresher team getting points at home, playing with a bye week, revenge, 10 returning starters on offense, and a head coach that is an offensive guru.
UConn has showed a lot more fight with their team this season. While they have not faced the best offenses (Villanova, Army, Missouri, and Navy), the defense is still only allowing 295 yards a game. The defense gave up 15 points vs. Nova, 17 vs Army, 9 points vs. Missouri, and 28 points vs. Navy. In the losses vs. Missouri and Navy, they only got outgained by 37 yards and 18 yards respectably.
UConn has better QB play this season with Bryant Shirreffs under center. He has completed 65% of his passes with 4 TD and only 1 INT. UConn is not a great offensive team, but they have improved by about 60 yards a game which should give them about an extra 7 points a game.
The UConn defense returns 10 of their top 11 tacklers from last season. Their head coach, Bob Diaco, is defensive minded. He was the DC at Notre Dame when the Irish had that dominant defense in 2012. This is his 2nd year with the program and has made great strides with his players this season. I will also note that Diaco's (Notre Dame) defenses faced BYU in 2012 and 2013 and held them to 14 and 13 points.
Last year, BYU played UConn the first game of the season. This was Diaco's first game as a head coach. He had his hands full with a team that was lacking talent. BYU was loaded on both sides of the ball, most notably QB Taysom Hill. Hill accounted for 5 total touchdowns (3 passing/ 2 rushing) and was BYU's leading rusher in the game. BYU won the game 35-10. Now Taysom Hill is out for the season and his replacement is a freshman that is clearly less talented. A lot of the problems also last year for UConn in this game was the QB situation as they were shuffling around two quarterbacks and neither was worth a flip. (The new QB has more potential, especially with his legs)
The new BYU quarterback is not a dual threat like Taysom Hill. As a matter of fact, he has 23 rushes for -31 yards on the season. Some of those negative rushing yards can be from the 13 times he has been sacked. (BYU leads the nation with 101 yards lost to sacks as they have given up 15 sacks total on the season). Mangum also has thrown 3 interceptions and has had a hard time sustaining drives which is putting more pressure on the defense. The BYU offense is only averaging 350 yards a game through the first 4 games, compared to 460 yards they average last season. They are only averaging 22.8 ppg compared to the 37 ppg they averaged last season. The loss of Taysom Hill is a big loss. I will also note that the offense is only converting on 35% of 3rd downs.
Injury Notes: BYU's starting running back, Adam Hine, went out with an injury last week. He is questionable for this game. They also had two cornerbacks, an offensive lineman, and a linebacker got injured. All of these guys are listed as questionable for this game.
BYU went 0-5 ATS last year as a Double Digit favorite last year at home. They are not good at covering in these spots. BYU was an underdog in their first three games of the season and now are going to a big double digit favorite with a freshman quarterback. To make it worse, they are coming off a tough loss to UCLA, then a shutout loss to Michigan. They are clearly not a team that is capable of laying these many points right now. Take UConn with the points.
This is a let-down spot for the Green Bay Packers after a big emotional win over the Seahawks last week. The Chiefs are playing well rested after not playing since last Thursday night, so we have the scheduling edge in our favor tonight.
The Chiefs are only giving up 4.9 yards per play through the first two games. Green Bay is giving up 5.7 yards a play. The Chiefs have a legit pass rush with 8 sacks through the first two games. The Packers only have 4 sacks. I feel we are getting the better defensive team as an underdog here.
The Chiefs are the healthier team right now. The Packers have some injuries including RB Eddie Lacy injured his ankle last week. He might not be 100%.
Green Bay was in a dog fight with Seattle last Sunday before scoring the last 11 points of the game. I think talent wise that Kansas City is about on par with the Seahawks. I think this game will be a dog fight as well and that the Chiefs defense will make plays.
Again, it will be hard for the Packers to play at such a high-level as they did against the Seahawks. Look for the Chiefs to be the more motivated team for this game. Kansas City is 4-1 ATS their L5 Monday night games. Green Bay is 1-4 ATS in their L5 Monday night games.
This is a kill spot for the Denver Broncos. They are well rested after not playing since last Thursday night vs. the Chiefs. They also have momentum after rallying from behind to get the win.
Denver is playing a Detroit Lions team that is just not that good this season. The Lions defense is not as good, especially up front without Suh. Their offense is not as good either. Quarterback Matthew Stafford is banged up and not 100%. I would not be surprised if the Broncos get to him in this game and force him out of the game.
This Lions defense has gotten shredded the first two game for 483 yards to the Chargers and the 350 yards to the Vikings who have a sub-par offense.
This is Peyton Manning's 3rd game now running the new offense. Manning is a genius and look for him to look more comfortable this Sunday. Look for the Broncos to establish a strong run game here and that will open up things for the passing game.
The Broncos have a top-tier defense. Look for them to force some turnovers and for Manning and the offense to make the most out of the turnovers. Take the Broncos to get the cover.
Play on Game #481 San Francisco (Sunday, 4:05 PM EST)
San Francisco is better than what they played last Sunday at Pittsburgh. I had the Steelers last week as a situational play, but want to back the 49ers in this spot as a divisional road dog.
The 49ers got embarrassed last week to say it nicely. These are NFL professionals and they will play with more pride and respect for this game. The 49ers defensive coordinator is Eric Mangini and he is a helluva defensive minded coach. Look for him to carve up a game plan to slow Arizona down.
Arizona is 2-0 SU and ATS on the season. Looking at the stats though, they only outgained the Saints by 19 yards and got outgained by 35 yards last week vs. the Bears. Luckily for them, Jay Cutler got injured in the first half.
Arizona is 0-10 ATS as favorites off a DD ATS win vs. an opponent off a SU loss. They are 2-8 ATS the last 10 home games vs. the 49ers.
The last 5 times the Arizona Cardinals have won a game by more than 20+ points, the results have not been good the next game. They have either lost the next game or only won it by 3 points or less.
Last year, Arizona was a 3 point homedog vs. the 49ers. Now we are seeing about a 10 point swing and I think that is an over-correction. San Fran is 8-2 SU the last 10 meetings vs. the Cardinals.
The 49ers still have a QB in Kaepernick. He has receivers in Boldin, Torry Smith, and Vernon Davis. Carlos Hyde appears to be good to go for this game also. If he plays, that will be an added bonus.
Arizona lost their defensive coordinator Todd Bowles to the NY Jets. I feel this defense has regressed a bit. Also starting running back Andre Ellington is out.
Play on Game #479 Atlanta Falcons (Sunday, 1:00 PM EST)
The hiring of former Seattle Seahawks defensive coordinator Dan Quinn has played off immediately as the Falcons have opened up the season going 2-0 SU and ATS, both games vs. the NFC East. Now they play another NFC East opponent that is limping into this game on Sunday in the Dallas Cowboys.
Let's look at the injuries/suspensions for the Dallas defense: The Cowboys are now down 4 regular starters after Randy Gregory went out last week. That adds to Greg Hardy (DE), Scandrick (CB), and Rolando McClain (LB) who will not be playing this game. Also defensive lineman Terrell McClain has suffered a season ending injury.
Now for the Cowboy's offense: 1) Trading DeMarco Murray was big for this team. How big? They Cowboys are only averaging 3.4 yards a carry after the first two games. Dallas averaged 143 yards a game rushing last season on 4.6 yards per carry. 2) Dez Bryant is injured. Bryant is one of the best receivers in the NFL. Now the leading receiver on the team is tight end Jason Witten. 3) Witten is hobbling around on two bad ankles and his status is uncertain for this game. To make it worse for Dallas, 4) Tony Romo is out for an extended amount of time. His replacement Brandon Weeden is nothing more than a back-up quarterback in the NFL. I will also note that their starting Ronald Leary is battling a groin injury.
Brandon Weeden's career stats in the NFL: 28 Interceptions, 13 fumbles, and only 27 touchdowns with a 56% completion rate. Weeden made a start with the Cowboys last season vs. Arizona. The result was a 28-17 loss. He went 18-for-33 with 2 INT to only 1 TD.
The Dallas offense does not have the weapons to trade blows with Matt Ryan and the Falcons. The Cowboys don't have the talent right now either with their front 7 to put pressure on Matt Ryan.
The Falcons have the best receiver in the NFL with Roddy White. It will be nice to have White on our side this Sunday. I like the fact this game is played in a dome. The Falcons play their home games in a dome and also play New Orleans once a year in the Superdome so they are used to playing on turf. Sure, there might be some crowd noise, but this is the NFL and Matt Ryan is a seasoned veteran. With such a threat like Julio Jones, is has opened up things for TE Tamme and WR Hankerson and the Falcons are converting on 49% of their 3rd downs.
Dan Quinn is a great defensive minded coach. I have to think that they will carve up a game plan to frustrate Weeden and to win the turnover battle. Atlanta contained both Philly and the Giants. I feel like the Cowboys offensive talent currently is worse than both Philly and the Giants. The Falcons defense looks much improved this season.
With all the current injuries to this Dallas team, I feel that the offense is at least 10 points worse with Weeden at QB and without Bryant. I also feel like without 4 quality starters on the defense that they are at least 3-4 points worse.
Atlanta is 8-2 SU their last 10 games vs. the NFC East. Dallas is 1-3 SU their last 4 vs. the NFC South and just 4-4 SU their last 8 vs. the NFC South. Take the Falcons on Sunday.
Play on Game #477 Indianapolis Colts (Sunday, 1:00 PM EST)
This is the perfect spot to back the Colts. The Colts are not in favor with the public now after starting off 0-2 SU and ATS. 'Luckily for Luck', he is playing against the Titans this week. Andrew Luck is 12-0 SU vs. the division over the last 2 years. Not only he is 12-0 SU, he is 11-0-1 ATS! Last year the Colts were laying -7.5 points at Tennessee and won 27-10. Now this line is a full 4 to 4.5 points lower. Are the Colts that bad? Are the Titans that good? The answer to both is no.
The Colts had to face two legit defenses in the Buffalo Bills and the NY Jets. Now they face a bottom-tier defense in the Tennessee Titans. Looking back at the last 10 matchups, the Colts are averaging 27 ppg vs. the Titans. Tennessee is only averaging 19 ppg. So that is a 27-19 average over the last 10 meetings. The Colts are a PERFECT 7-0 SU & ATS vs. the Titans the last 7 meetings.
This is Andrew Luck vs. Marcus Mariota. (A Top 5 NFL quarterback vs. a quarterback making his 3rd career start). I don't think that the Titans have much of a home field edge either. There will be plenty of Colts fans there also as there is just not as many Titans fans to fill up the stadium as there used to be.
The Titans defense does not force turnovers like the Jets and the Bills. Andrew Luck will have time in the pocket. The Titans don't have a solid pass rush. Luck has never lost three games in a row in his career. Lay the points with Indy.
This is a triple revenge game for HC Rich Rod and his Arizona Wildcats. This is RIch Rod's 4th year coaching Arizona and he has yet to beat UCLA. I make note of this because I feel that this is a game that he has had circled on the calendar. This is Arizona's first conference game and it is an important one. Head coach Rodriguez has 6 wins over ranked conference opponents over the last 3 years and is a PERFECT 4-0 ATS as a homedog the last 3 years.
Arizona played a cupcake last week in Northern Arizona. They won the game 77-13 and got to get some of their players some rest in the 4th quarter with the game already won, so they will be fresh for this game. Through the first 3 games of the season Anu Solomon, the quarterback, has 10 TD/ 0 INT. Nick Wilson is one of the premier running backs in the PAC 12. Arizona has 4 receivers that can all make plays. Some big and tall, some are short and fast. This offense is well balanced and that's why they are ranked 6th in the country with 584 ypg. They have a senior punter and a senior kicker, both of whom are good.
For the Arizona defense, this is an experienced defensive line that is quick up front. All reports say that Scooby Wright should be ready to play in this game also. Wright is coming off an injury but trainers and the coaches say they are optimistic. Wright was PAC 12 defensive player of the year last season. It will be an added bonus if Wright does play this game.
For UCLA, this will be freshman Josh Rosen's first PAC 12 game and it's on the road. Rosen showed his youth last week throwing 3 interceptions. He now has 4 interceptions on the season compared to 5 touchdowns. This is a tough environment for him to be in on Saturday night. I expect the freshman to make some 'freshman' mistakes.
UCLA lost one of their starting cornerbacks to injury this week, Fabian Morneau. He led the team is pass break ups last year. That makes 2 starters now gone on this defense. I will also note that UCLA receiver Jordan Payton left practice Tuesday with an ankle injury. Reports say he should be ready for Saturday's game, but I have to question if he will be 100%.
Play on Game #374 Auburn Tigers (Saturday, 7:30 PM EST)
Auburn is being under-valued in this spot. This is a big revenge game for them after losing last year, 38-23 to Mississippi State. Auburn was playing on the road against an undefeated Miss State team. They got down early and couldn't rally back. I will note that the yardage was close though at 441-469. Revenge is best served on a platter at home and that it will be served on Saturday night.
Expectations were high for Auburn this season. They are coming off a loss @ LSU which did not surprise me considering LSU was pissed about their 41-7 loss last year to Auburn. Also the fact that LSU has maybe the best RB in the country in Leornard Fournette also had something to do with it. Mississippi State doesn't have near the talent this year that LSU has and certainly not a running back like Fournette.
Gus Malzahn is 15-1 SU at home in his coaching career at Auburn. The one loss was last year vs. Texas AM, but Auburn outgained Texas AM by 129 yards so the final score was a bit misleading. This is a pivotal game for Auburn and Malzahn has been one to right the ship in the past.
Mississippi State lost ALOT from last season. They return only 9 players (2 offensive line and 1 on the defensive line). They lost their center, tackle, and guard. This is an inexperienced offensive line and playing on the road at night in Jordan Hare Stadium I expect them to struggle. On defense, Miss State lost their best defensive lineman and linebacker. The secondary got torched last year for 273 yards a game and appear to be worse off this season, evidenced by what Southern Miss did to them in Week 1.
Mississippi State opened the season @ bottom-tier Southern Miss. They only outgained Southern Miss by 29 yards. South Miss actually had a 38 minute to 22 minute time of possession edge. The Southern Miss QB completed 68% of his passes for 311 yards. My point is that this defense looked terrible vs. a bottom tier team in Southern Miss. Auburn has far more talent and athleticism at every position and will be able to get their offense going here.
Auburn has played two good defenses in LSU and Louisville this season and playing this Mississippi State should be a sigh of relief I feel. I will also note that when Auburn lost to LSU in 2013, they went on to win their last 9 regular season games going a PERFECT 9-0 ATS. My point being that butt whoopin' in 2013 got their butt in gear for the remainder of the season. I say that to say this: Auburn is coming off another thumping from LSU and I believe they will kick it up a gear once again.
While I can admit that the Auburn offense has not yet exploded, I think this is the spot tonight. I firmly believe the offensive and defensive coaching staff will have these players focused tonight and I fully expect them to play their best game of the season, which will be more than enough to get the cover. Malzahn loves playing with revenge also. Last year he gave LSU a 41-7 beatdown after LSU gave Aubrurn their only loss in 2013 and his now 7-1 ATS coaching with revenge.
This is a short price in this game and the linesmakers are over-reacted based on the score from last week's game @ LSU and their nailbiter vs. Jacksonville State. Lay the points with Auburn.
Play on Game #355 Texas AM (Saturday, 7:00 PM EST)
This game is being played in Arlington, Texas so we are getting some good value not having to lay as many points with the superior team in Texas AM. Texas AM won this game 35-28 last year. This year's Texas AM team is much better on both sides of the ball and Arkansas is regressing fast.
Texas AM might have the best WR trio in the country. They have a power running back in Tra Carson (6'0", 235 lb.) QB Kyle Allen has a 9 TD/ 2 INT mark. They can put QB Kyler Murray in and he can use his speed to scramble and give the defense another look they might not be prepared for. This is a well balanced offense that is averaging 200+ rushing and passing yards a game.
The Aggies are coming off a couple of games against some cupcakes. I make note of this because they are very fresh and rested in this game. Arkansas on the other hand is coming off back to back losses and where they had to fight for their lives playing from behind.
The truth about it is Arkansas is just not as good as advertised. One problem is the injury to RB Williams was huge for this team. The running game has been WAY down this year. He is being sorely missed. The next problem is their leading receiver Keon Hatcher is out with an injury. And the next problem I see is the loss of their tight end AJ Derby (NFL Draft pick) who was the quarterbacks safety outlet. Now Brandon Allen is having trouble completing passes and he does not have a strong enough running game to help out.
Texas AM has a legit defense this season with DC John Chavis leading the way. They were dominant against Arizona State the first game of the season (game played on a neutral in Houston). Hall and Garrett have already combined for 9 sacks on the season. This defensive line is one of the best in the nation.
Special Teams: Texas AM has the #3 punter in the nation. Arkansas has the #91 punter as far as yards per punt. Texas AM kicker is 5-for-5 on field goals. Arkansas kicker is 4-for-6 missing both attempts from 30+ yards.
Last year Texas AM was a 9 point favorite. This year the line is lower so we are getting great value here. Much of that is due to the respect that the linesmakers have now shown for Arkansas but the fact is that they are missing 3 key parts from their offense last year in Williams, Hatcher, and Derby) who had 21 TD's and over 1800 yards combined and this has not been factored in I feel.
In my opinion, Texas AM is about a full 10 points a game better on defense this year and their offense is about 7 points a game better. Arkansas's offense is not nearly as good as the running game is just not as strong this year. Brandon Allen does not have a strong arm at all and can't make the throws down the field. I've seen him miss several throws this season because of underthrown balls.
We are getting the better team (offense, defense, and special teams). I also think we are getting the better coach in Kevin Sumlin. Bielema has been busy talking smack while not backing any of it up. Kevin Sumlin is strictly business and so is the DC John Chavis. I will note that Chavis was the DC for LSU last year and the Tigers held Arkansas to only 95 rushing yards on 38 carries. Look for a good ol' butt whoppin' this Saturday in Arlington, Texas.
Play on: Game #380 Texas Tech (Saturday, 4:45 PM EST)
This is Texas Tech's Super Bowl so-to-speak. After TCU ran the score up on them 82-27 last year, The Red Raiders have had this game circled on their calendar for a long time.
Texas Tech is playing with confidence and momentum after beating Arkansas last week. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes gives the Red Raiders offense a legit running threat along with his arm that makes this air raid offense much more dynamic. Mahomes has 4 rushing TD's on the season and has 129 yards on the ground. He has an offense loaded with juniors and seniors. The offensive line is very experienced. The Red Raiders have 4 receivers that have 10 or more receptions through the first 3 games.
HC Kliff Kingsbury is 3-1 ATS as a homedog with Texas Tech. He had covers at home last year vs. Oklahoma and West Virginia. In 2013, Texas Tech beat TCU at home, 20-10 as a 3 point homedog.
Texas Tech returns 17 starters total this season. They have a much more experienced defensive line and secondary. I know their offense can trade blows with TCU, but it will be their defense that makes the difference in this game.
TCU is not as good as advertised. The losses on defense have been huge for this team. TCU lost 6 starters from last year's team. Now they are down 7 starters after junior cornerback Ranthony Texada went out last week. There are 4 other TCU starters that have not played this season. (Iloka, Douglas, Pierson, and McFarland). This TCU defense gave up 508 yards to SMU last week on their home field.
Looking at the TCU defense that played Ole Miss in last year's bowl game and the TCU team that will be playing Texas Tech this week, it's possible that they will have 10 different players than who started against Ole Miss in the bowl game.
TCU is not a good road team. Last year they only beat West Virginia by 1 point and only beat Kansas by 4 points. Since coming to the BIG 12, TCU is 2-7 ATS as a road favorite, including a close 23-17 win this season @ Minnesota whose offense is sub-par at best.
This is a huge revenge game for Texas Tech like I noted earlier. This is a high-powered offense that is catching a TCU team that probably has the most key defensive injuries in college football. It will be too much for them to overcome. Take Texas Tech this Saturday afternoon.
Play on Game #326 East Carolina (Saturday, 3:30 PM EST)
East Carolina won this game last year at Virginia Tech, 28-21. East Carolina had 502 yards of total offense. The Pirates have an offense that is tough to stop and playing at home, they will have their offense cranking.
East Carolina is 3-0 ATS the last 3 meetings vs. Virginia Tech. They were a 8 point homedog in 2013 and got the cover in a 15-10 game. HC Ruffin McNeil is 9-4 ATS as an underdog of 7 to 13 points in his 5 years at East Carolina. This is a team that has past wins against North Carolina and NC State in addition to Virginia Tech. Last year they beat North Carolina 70-41. In 2013, they beat NC State 42-28. East Carolina gave Florida all they could handle in Week 2 before losing 31-24. My point being that the Pirates tend to get motivated when stepping up in competition.
East Carolina just got crushed by Navy last week. They couldn't stop the option. A lot of teams struggle to stop the option. Virginia Tech has more of a basic offense with Brenden Motley running the show. Their senior quarterback Michael Brewer is out for the season and Motley is now making his 3rd career start. Motley is inexperienced and it has shown as he fumbled 3 times last week at Purdue.
Virginia Tech won 51-24 last week but two of those scores were on a fumble return and a blocked punt for a touchdown so the score is a bit misleading.
Virginia Tech is 3-9 ATS their L12 games as a road favorite of -4 or more points. This line has been over-corrected in my opinion based largely on last weeks scores. East Carolina is 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games following a SU loss and are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. the ACC. Considering the fact that Virginia Tech has not been a good road team in the past and that they are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games after scoring more that 40 points in their previous game, look for East Carolina to keep this one within the posted number.
Play on Game #310 Michigan Wolverines (Saturday, 12:00 AM EST)
Michigan is playing their 3rd consecutive home game which plays right to our favor. They also have the advantage of playing two easy games the last two weeks. Starters were able to get some rest towards the end of the game against Oregon State and UNLV. Jim Harbaugh has done a great job with this Wolverine's team and has them believing and they are doing it by running the ball and playing solid defense.
I will note that this Michigan defense only allowed 311 yards a game last season and look even stronger this season. This year they are only giving up 2.6 yards a carry. The Wolverines are only allowing opponents to convert on 23% of 3rd downs.
The Michigan running backs are all workhorses . They have a senior QB that is improving each game. I will also note that Michigan is PERFECT in the red zone this season.
BYU is starting a freshman QB at the 'Big House'. They only have one legit running back. The BYU Cougars secondary is very young. BYU gave up 27.5 ppg last year and have given up 28,24, and 23 points this season.
BYU is coming off a tough loss @ UCLA. They had the lead the whole game until the last few minutes when UCLA took the 24-23 lead. This is BYU's 3rd road game to start out the season and their 4th quality opponent. This team has played in 3 close games and I feel like from an 'emotional standpoint' that this team is worn out. Coming off a late game on the West Coast to now a game on the road for an 'Early start' (12:00 AM EST) will be too much for them to overcome.
I also feel this line is too low based on the perception of this BYU team. They have played some close games and have been competitive, but like I said, coming off such a tough loss, I don't see them being very focused on the road here. I also firmly believe they are outclassed on both sides of the ball.
BYU strives on the passing game. Michigan has lock down cornerbacks. I also like Michigan to have the advantage in the return game. Peppers has the break-free ability and appears close to breaking one for a TD. I expect Peppers to make some big returns in this game and get the Wolverines into good field position.
Play on Game #308 Oregon State (Friday, 10:00 PM EST)
Stanford is coming off a big emotional win vs. USC. They are going from being a 10 point dog on the road to now a double digit road favorite. Senior quarterback Kevin Hogan has an ankle injury and has not practiced this week. Reports are that he is a game time decision. If Hogan doesn't play, then it will either be a rFR or sophomore that will be making their first career start....First career start on the road in Corvalis, Oregon I will add. This is a nationally televised game and the home crowd will be rockin. If Hogan somehow does play, he will not be 100% mobile.
Stanford has Arizona on deck and then a bye week. I feel like HC David Shaw would rather let Hogan get fully healthy before the stiffer competition comes into play. If Hogan doesn't play, this line will dip a few points before kickoff. Regardless of who the starting quarterback is, I like Oregon State.
Oregon State's coach is Gary Anderson. He went 18-5 ATS as an underdog with Utah State and Wisconsin from 2009-2014. This is one of the best underdog coaches of all time in my opinion.
Oregon State has a dynamic quarterback that is a dual threat. He fits this offense and Stanford has not seen a quarterback like Seth Collins this season. Oregon State runs a 'run heavy' offense. I mention this because we will see more time roll off the clock with the running game which favors us and the double digits we are getting. Oregon State also has a very experienced offensive line.
I am still not sold on Stanford's defense. They are still young at positions and are not at that 'elite' level like they were last year.
This is a big let-down game for them also after beating USC. Stanford is just 2-6 SU the last 8 years after playing USC.
Oregon State was a 13.5 road dog last season playing at Stanford. For them to be getting more points now at home against a Stanford team that is not as good and with their QB situation in limbo, this is a bargain. Look for HC Gary Anderson to do what he does best, and that is to have his team motivated when inserted as an underdog. Take Oregon State.
Play on Game #301 Washington Redskins (Thursday, 8:20 PM EST)
The Giants are a mess. They could potentially be 2-0 going into this game but because of terrible play calling, they are 0-2 and are facing a Redskins team that is playing with a chip on their shoulder.
I like what I've seen from the Redskins this season. To be able to win in the NFL, you have to be able to run the ball. The Redskins have Morris and Jones who have accounted for 331 rushing yards through the first two games. The Giants have not faced an offense yet that has a legit running game. The Cowboys running game was way down without Murray while the Falcons relied primarily on their passing game. Kirk Cousins is completing 75% of his passes this season. This is an efficient offense that has no problem taking what the defense gives them. The Redskins have outgained both of their opponents this season, along with all 4 of their opponents in the preseason.
The Giants running game looks pitiful. If you take away a 27 yard run from Jennings and a 35 yard carry from Andre Williams, then the Giants are averaging only 2.8 yards a carry. Until Victor Cruz gets healthy, then the Giants really only have Odell Beckham to throw the ball too. Reuben Randle has been non-existent basically.
The Giants lack a pass rush and in effect they are allowing opponents to convert on 61% of 3rd downs. The Redskins are holding their first two opponents to only a 29% conversion rate on 3rd down.
The Giants will be without their top cornerback in Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie. The Redskins get their starting cornerback back, Chris Culliver, after serving a one game suspension.
NFC East favorites this season are 0-4 ATS. NFC underdogs are 3-1 ATS.
Play on: Game #304 Memphis Tigers (Thursday,7:30 PM EST)
The Memphis Tigers beat Cincinnati with ease last year 41-14. They put up over 600 yards of offense and held Cincy to only 299 yards of offense (+311 yard advantage). What impressed me about that game was Memphis was coming off a physical game vs. Ole Miss last year and showed no marks of it by dismantling the Bearcats.
Memphis has scored 63,55, and 44 points this season. They return the bulk of their offense from last year. Memphis has a very experienced QB in Paxton Lynch and a power running game. He has 6 TD/ 0 INT combined on the season. Memphis ran for 299 yards on the ground last year vs. the Bearcats and I expect them to have their way once again on Thursday night. This Cincinnati defensive line is soft along with their linebackers. We saw that when they played Temple, that Temple had no problem running the ball for 215 yards and 6 yards a carry. This Memphis team has a '3 headed monster' of power backs that will run over this Bearcat defense. They have a 6'1" 245 lb power back leading the way along with a couple of other guys that are 210-215 lb.
Cincinnati gave up 184 yards a game on the ground last year. This season they are more inexperienced up front and are starting a rFR at middle linebacker.
Cincinnati is also at another BIG disadvantage. QB Gunner Kiel got knocked out of last week's game and the freshman that replaced him had 4 turnovers in the 4th quarter( 2 INT and 2 fumbles) . I'm not sure who is going to get the start here, but both quarterbacks are turnover prone. If Kiel can't go, then a freshman making his 1st start on the road against this Memphis defense...That spells trouble. Plus he will not be able to trade blows with this Memphis offense.
Regardless which Cincy QB starts, they have a 6TD/6 INT mark combined and I feel that Memphis will be some ball hawks and force turnovers in this game. Also, Cincinnati's starting cornerback Adrian Witty is out for this game and their other starting cornerback, Payne, is fighting an injury.
Memphis is PERFECT in the red zone this season. They are converting 54% on 3rd downs. We have a very efficient offense with the Memphis Tigers.
Cincinnati is playing back to back road games on a short week of rest. This is a Thursday night game and I think the home team has a definitive advantage here as well. Temple gashed Cincy on the ground. A terrible Miami Ohio team had 448 yards vs. them. They are ranked last in the nation in turnover margin. Lay the points with Memphis.
This is just not your regular revenge game. This is a HUGE revenge game for Green Bay. This is actually triple revenge for Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. The last 3 matchups have been played in Seattle. This time they are playing at Green Bay.
Let me remind you that Green Bay controlled the game last year in the playoffs before some conservative play calling and ended up losing 28-22. I can guarantee that the Packers have had this game circled since when the schedule came out.
Green Bay has 8 Pro Bowl worthy players on offense. James Jones looked great at receiver last week. Aaron Rodgers doesn't miss at home. Last year he had a 133.2 passing rating at home with a 28 TD/ 0 INT mark. Look for the Packers to score points in this game.
The Seattle defense is down and without their starting safety. Look how Nick Foles shredded them last week. Rodgers will do much more damage than that. Also Seattle lost their defensive coordinator and this is having an impact on their defense as well. I will also note the questionable play calling by Pete Carroll.
Seattle has a mediocre offensive line with a lot of shuffling around. The wide receivers are mediocre also in my opinion. Marshawn Lynch is not the same running back playing on the road.
This is a 'kill' spot for the Packers and they'll get it done in a BIG way on Sunday night.
Play on Game #266: Pittsburgh Steelers(Sunday, 1:00 PM EST)
Don't let the Monday Night win of the 49ers fool you. The Steelers are still the much better team and we are getting a huge scheduling edge here.
The Steelers played last Thursday. The 49ers played on Monday Night. So the Steelers have had 3 more days to rest and prepare. This is also an early game in the NFL and the 49ers are a West Coast team having to travel out on the East coast. This situation has not favored them in the past and the Steelers have been dominant in the past at home vs. the NFL West.
Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU and ATS their L5 vs. NFC West. The average score has been 27-6. San Fran is just 1-3 ATS their last 4 games on the road vs. the NFC North with an average margin of defeat by a score of 20-10.
Another note: Pittsburgh lost in Week 1 to the Patriots but they outgained New England by 103 yards. This is encouraging for the Steelers as they have an offense that is superb to what the 49ers have.
In the Mike Tomlin era (8 years), the Steelers have opened on the road 3 times. Of those 3 games, the Steelers have came back home and went 3-0 SU and ATS in Game 2 of the season with scores of 26-3, 24-0, and 27-10. Look for the trend to continue as San Fran is in a prime 'let-down' spot here vs. a well rested Pittsburgh team. Lay the points with the Steelers.
Play on Game #270 Buffalo Bills (Sunday, 1:00 PM EST)
The bulls-eye is on the Patriots. They are the Super Bowl winner and nobody in the NFL likes them. It seems like when they play at home that they always have some kind of advantage whether it be deflated footballs or headsets not working. Well, they are on the road this Sunday vs. a Buffalo Bills team that has HC Rex Ryan running the show.
I make note of Rex Ryan being the new head coach for the Bills because he gave the Patriots fits when he was coaching for the Jets. The last 4 meetings between the Jets and Patriots have been decided by 3 points or less. I strongly feel that this Bills team is about 6-7 points better than what the Jets were last year.
The Jets were running the ball with ease against the Patriots last season. This year, Rex Ryan has a top RB in Lesean McCoy along with a QB that can use his feet to roll out of the pocket and scramble if needed. The Bills got Percy Harvin also and he caught all 5 passes thrown his way last week. Harvin and Sammy Watkins together might be one the NFL's best 1-2 combos. My point here is that I think the Bills have enough offense along with a top notch defense to beat New England here.
The Bills have one of the NFL best defenses in my opinion. They showcased it last week when they played the Colts, intercepting Andrew Luck twice. Ryan likes to blitz and will be throwing multiple looks at the Pats. The front 7 looked fierce last week and now are even stronger as they get DL Marcell Dareus back on the defensive line. Tom Brady did not face much pressure against the Steelers. It will be a different story on Sunday as he will not have as much time in the pocket to find open receivers.
I will also note that the Patriots starting Center is on the IR. That is not good going up against this Bills defense. I will also note that the Patriots gave up over 5 yards a carry vs. the Steelers (DeAngelo Williams). The Bills have a much stronger running game than Pittsburgh and will utilize it. Also Pittsburgh outgained New England which is another red flag.
This Buffalo crowd will be louder than ever I can guarantee it. With the 'bulls-eye' on the Patriots, look for the Bills to make a statement here. We have a coach in Rex Ryan on our side that has given the Patriots plenty of problems in the past with lesser talent. Now he has inherited a talented squad on both sides of the ball. Take the Buffalo Bills!
Play on Game #277 Washington Redskins (Sunday, 1:00 PM EST)
What happens after the Saint Louis Rams beat the Seattle Seahawks? Over 75% of the public jumps on them laying points on the road vs. the Redskins. I want to note that the Rams are 0-9 SU their L9 when traveling on the road after playing the Seattle Seahawks and 2-15 SU overall the following week after playing Seattle.
While the Rams are an improved team, this is not a favorable spot for them. This is only the 2nd time in the last 5 years they have been a road favorite. True enough the other time was last year when they were a 3 point rd favorite @ Washington and they won 24-0. This was towards the end of the season and the Redskins had already packed their bags.
I think this game will be different. It is only Game 2 of the season. Washington is playing at home for a consecutive week so they don't have to do any traveling. A win today and they are 1-1 and can still have hopes of a better season than last year.
Saint Louis is now 1-9 SU in their last 10 road openers. The win was only a two point victory last year @ Tampa Bay.
Washington has proved to be competitive in the Preseason and they were also competitive in Week 1 although they lost 17-10. The Redskins went 4-0 'In-the-Stats' in the Preseason and outgained the Dolphins by 93 yards last week. Washington was actually in a position to tie the game late in the 4th quarter before falling short.
I honestly like what I saw from Washington. They are a 'run first' team and have a healthy Jordan Reed at tight end this year and Garcon looked good catching 6 of the 8 balls thrown his way. Washington held Miami to 74 yards on the ground and sacked Tannehill 3 times. The Redskins offensive line looked good as they paved the way for the running game and only allowed one sack vs. a solid front line of the Dolphins. They get cornerback Breeland back from suspension and he will fill in for Culliver who is suspended for this week.
This is a big letdown spot for Saint Louis. After they beat Seattle last year, the Rams lost the next week @ Kansas City, 34-7. While I know that the Redskins are not the same caliber team as the Chiefs, I do think they are competitive enough of a team to knock the Rams of their 'high horse'. I will also note that the Rams won 6 games last year. Of the 6 wins, they lost 5 of the 6 games played after coming off the win. The defense faltered giving up 30+ points in 4 of those losses. Take the Redskins on Sunday to get us the cover.
Play on Game #195 Stanford (Saturday, 8:00 PM EST)
This matchup here has been decided by an average of 4 points in the last 5 meetings. In 2009, Stanford was listed as a 10.5 point dog and won the game SU 55-21. Stanford then beat USC the next 2 meetings in 2011 and 2012. In 2013 and 2014, USC returned the favor winning both matchup's, but only by a field goal in each game. Even though USC won both of these games, Stanford outgained the Trojans (429-291 and 337-311). In fact, Stanford has a +83 yard net advantage over USC the last 6 meetings. Stanford has held USC to 20 or fewer points in all of the last 3 matchups.
My point is that Stanford has had USC's number for the most part. We are getting excellent value in this game based on the outcome of the first two games of the season.
USC beat Idaho 59-9 and Ark State 55-6. The 55-6 score is a bit misleading though as USC only outgained Arkansas State by 108 yards. Arkansas State moved the ball down the field but had some costly turnovers.
Stanford lost in Week 1 at Northwestern. We were all over Northwestern in that game. It was an early game for Stanford. The offense sputtered. No surprise to me. But Last week they were back at home playing at night and put up 491 yards and only allowed 181 vs. UCF. This is still an upper-tier Stanford defense also, make no mistake about it. They gave up 16 points at Northwestern and only gave up 7 last week vs. UCF.
USC was a 10-to-14 point home favorite twice last year. They went 0-2 ATS. They lost straight up to Arizona State and only beat Cal by 8 as a 14 point home favorite.
I will note that Stanford was a 10.5 point dog in 2013 when they played #2 Oregon. The result was a straight up 26-20 win. David Shaw does a great job of getting his team prepared for games vs. USC and Oregon. This is a double revenge game for Stanford and after losing the last two games vs. the Trojans by a field goal, I see this game coming down to the wire with a final score in the 27-24 range. Take Stanford!
Play on Game #190 New Mexico State (Saturday, 8:00 PM EST)
UTEP is playing their 3rd straight road game. They are 0-2 SU and ATS this season with expected losses @ Arkansas and @ Texas Tech. UTEP won 7 games last year. Before last year, they had losing seasons in the previous 8 years.
UTEP actually got outgained last year by an average of 16 yards a game so their 7-6 record is misleading. This year they lost their senior quarterback along with many other key players as they only return 11 starters overall. Well, their most important player, Aaron Jones is now out for the season with an ankle injury. How important is he? Well, he was a 2nd TM CUSA running back that led the team with 1374 yards rushing last year and was the team's 2nd leading receiver. This year he was leading the team with 32 carries (6.5 ypc) and is leading the team with 9 receptions. He has 2 of the teams 3 touchdowns. Obviously his absence is huge. I will also note that UTEP has 2 expected starters in the secondary out with injuries. UTEP's defense is already terrible as they are allowing a nation's worst 9.2 yards a play!
I mentioned UTEP is playing their 3rd straight road game. Looking back over the last 4 seasons, UTEP is 0-2 SU when playing their 3rd consecutive road game, losing 52-24 and 41-7. When I widen the parameter and see how they fare in the 2nd of a B2B road game, UTEP is 1-9 SU over the last 5 seasons. This is not a favorable spot for them.
Utep had 187 yards of offense last week @ Texas Tech. They only had 204 yards of offense in Week 1 @ Arkansas. RB Jones had accounted for about 50% of the teams total offense, and like I said he is out for the season now.
New Mexico State returns 18 starters this season. Expectations are higher for the team this year under 3rd year coach Doug Martin.... Well, they have started 0-2. They lost expectedly to Florida in Week1, then lost 34-32 last week vs. Georgia State. This Saturday is a good time to back New Mexico State. I like backing these 17+ returning starter teams after losing ATS the previous 2 games. My rationale is that they have enough experience to right the ship the next game. Tonight's game is favorable for them. They played at home last game and have a bye week coming up so their focus will be beating a UTEP team that has had their number in the past.
New Mexico State improved their defense by 66 yards a game last year. This year they return 10 starters on that side of the ball! The defensive line has put on size in the off-season. The secondary is much more experienced as well are the linebackers.
The home team is 13-5 all time in this series. UTEP is 3-12 SU under HC Sean Kugler. They were not installed as a road favorite at all last year. This is not a role they are used to playing. Let's take New Mexico State here in this favorable spot for them.
Play on Game #159 Georgia Tech (Saturday, 3:30 PM EST)
Dating back to last season, Georgia Tech is 13-3 'In-the-Stats'. This means they have outgained 13 of their last 16 opponents. Georgia Tech had 3 losses last season. They were all close games losing by 2, 5, and 6 points. Two of those losses, they outgained their opponent. My point is this is a competitive team that runs a triple option and is almost impossible to contain. Tech's defense is also much improved this year.
Georgia Tech converted on 58% of their 3rd downs last season. QB Justin Thomas can run this triple option to perfection. Georgia Tech brought in a big 235 lb senior transfer from Stanford and he has not disappointed getting the bulk amount of touches and has 4 TD's through the first two games. The thing I like about Thomas is that he has an arm and it makes it much harder for defenses to defend this triple option.
Georgia Tech returns 8 starters on defense this season. The strength is on the defensive line and the secondary. The D-line is quick on the edges and they have a 2nd TM ACC nose tackle. The secondary starts 4 seniors. This defense will be putting pressure on the rFR quarterback for Notre Dame and I expect for them to create turnovers. Georgia Tech was ranked 14th last year in turnover margin.
Notre Dame will be starting a rFR and he is making his first career start. He is not as athletic as Zaire, the former starter. Zaire was the team's best runner. DeShone Fizer, Notre Dame's QB for Saturday, is not near as mobile and that is a big for this game. Notre Dame has already lost their top 2 running backs for the season. Now their starting running back is a guy that had only 10 carries last year and was a converted wide receiver. This is a big stage for an inexperienced quarterback. Also the fact that he is not as mobile as Ziare and that he doesn't have any solid running backs, I have to expect this team to struggle to score. He will have a hard time competing passes down the field vs. the experienced secondary of Georgia Tech that start 4 seniors.
Notre Dame plays Navy every year which is another triple option team. Notre Dame struggles against the triple option. They have given up 39 and 34 points the last 2 seasons vs. Navy. Last year they gave up 336 and 5.6 yards per carry vs. Navy. This Georgia Tech triple option is much more powerful than Navy and they have a QB that can throw the ball.
Georgia Tech is 4-0-1 as a road favorite over the last 3 years. Last season when the line was in between -4 to +4, they went 7-1 ATS.
Through the first two games of this season, Georgia Tech is converting on 60% of 3rd downs. They are perfect in the red zone. The Yellow Jackets have also only committed 1 penalty a game. This is a smart and efficient team.
Notre Dame has played a tougher schedule so far, but it needs to be noted they are only 33% on 3rd downs. Virginia had the edge in Time of Possession against them last week which is also a red flag for me and also had 416 yards of offense against the Irish. Georgia Tech is much more dynamic than Virginia on both offense and defense. Lay the small chalk on the road with Georgia Tech.
Temple is coming off B2B straight up wins as 6+ point underdogs. Now they are playing a back-to-back road game and have been installed as a double digit road favorite and now the role has been reversed. This is what I call a strong case of 'role reversal'. Is Temple the better team? Yes they are, but to lay double digits on the road vs. a UMass team that is one of the most experienced teams in the MAC is too much in this spot.
UMass returns 19 starters from last year's team. They improved dramatically last year on offense by 139 yards a game and 15 ppg. They have an NFL caliber quarterback that can move the offense down the field along with one of the best receivers in the MAC.
I make a note of their experience (19 ret starters/ 95 offensive line starts). I make a note of this because this is their 2nd game of the season and they just got embarrassed @ Colorado, 48-14. They were a bit outmatched and playing on the West coast out of their comfort zone. This Saturday, they have the advantage of playing at home and with so many returning starters, this team knows the importance of this game. A win here and there is still hope. With a game upcoming @ Notre Dame, you can bet (and we will) that UMass will leave it all on the field today to try and get to 1-1 on the season.
I feel that Temple's mindset for this game is, 'We just knocked off Penn State and Cincinnati, now we have this easy game vs. UMass'. This is a huge letdown spot for them. I don't expect them to play with as much as intensity. They beat Cincinnati last week but Gunner Kiel had no problem throwing the ball down the field to his receivers. In fact, Temple got outgained by 261 yards. Dating back to last season, Temple has gotten outgained in 6 of their last 10 games. Looking at their last 5 road games, they have not won by more than 8 points.
I like this spot here with UMass. You can expect their best effort and I think it's safe to say that Temple will be overlooking them. I am not going to call for an upset, but we just need a cover. UMass will score in this game and will keep it close. I would not be surprised if they are leading at some point in this game. When it's all said and done, I expect to see this game come down to the last possession with a final score in the 27-24 range. Take UMass.
All data and information on Sports Thunder provides news matter and entertainment to a worldwide audience. Note: US Citizens: Activities offered by links to other sites may be deemed an illegal activity in certain jurisdictions and is not intended to be used in violation of local, state, federal or international law's.
