UNLV is 7-1 this season. The one loss was by two points against UCLA who beat Kentucky. They have wins against Indiana and Oregon.
UNLV has an edge down low with Oregon transfer Ben Carter, and seven footer Stephen Zimmerman. They also have big guards at 6'6 and 6'7 then are led by a Rutgers transfer who was a three year starter before transferring.
Dating back to last season, UNLV is 9-1 ATS their last 10 games as an underdog.
Wichita State is only shooting 38% from the floor this season. Their defense is not as good as last season and they lack size down low and Anton Grady got injured. Grady was a Cleveland State transfer that average 14.3 ppg/ 7.9 rpg last year. The tallest player on this team is only 6'7. VanFleet is back but he only played 18 minutes last game and is a bit rusty.
BIG size advantage for UNLV. Wichita State is rebuilding. UNLV is on the rise. *UNLV*
Play on Game #739 Utah State (Wednesday, 9:00 PM EST)
This is big revenge for Utah State as BYU has won the last three meetings. BYU has regressed this season from last year while Utah State is on the rise. Utah State returns four starters from last year's team that won 18 games.
Utah State has size down low to matchup with BYU. They also have depth in the backcourt with a couple of transfers from Miami Dade JC. Utah State plays unselfish and intelligent and play hard on the defensive side and crash the boards. They have guys that will have fouls to give to put BYU's big men on the line. Kyle Davis and Corbin Kaufusi are shooting 44% from the foul line. Collinsworth, their leading scorer is only shooting 62% from the line. As a team BYU is only shooting 34% from the three point line.
Utah State is 9-3 ATS the last 12 meetings. *Utah State*
Play on Game #743 Fresno State (Wednesday, 9:00 PM EST)
Fresno State is 6-2 on the season. Their two losses have come by 5 points at Oregon and by 12 points at Cal Poly. I like the fact they played Oregon to a 5 point loss as I have Oregon as a slightly better team than Arizona this year.
Arizona is coming off their biggest win of the season beating Gonzaga on the road last Saturday. Tonight they are over inflated facing a Fresno State team that returns all five starters and have a pesky team. Arizona is 1-4 ATS as a double digit favorite this season. The Wildcats only shoot 28.7% from the three point line and only 67.5% from the free throw line.
Fresno State returns all five starters from last season and are a team that has improved over the last three years. Fresno beat four teams last year that reached the NCAA tournament in San Diego State, Boise State, Wyoming, and UC-Irvine. While this is a step-up in competition, they will be ready for the challenge much like they were when they played Oregon.
Fresno has an experienced squad composed of seniors and juniors. They only turn the ball over 12 times a game. They are holding teams to 69 ppg and have not allowed more than 78 ppg this season. I am looking for a defensive type of game here that make the points more valuable. Arizona's seven foot center Kaleb Tarczewski is out with an injury. *Fresno State*
Play on Game #711 LA Lakers (Wednesday, 8:05 PM EST)
Four of the last five meetings between the Lakers and the T'Wolves have been decided by six points or fewer with an average margin of only 3.6 points. Minnesota's last two wins against the Lakers have been by only one point each. Minnesota has only two home wins this season. Those two wins were by five points against Philly and by four points against the Hawks. The T'wolves are now 1-8-1 ATS their last 10 home games dating back to last season as a favorite. The Lakers will not have many winnable games this season, but this is one of them. I can't see a scenario in which they let this game get out of sight. Five of Minnesota's last seven games have been decided by 6 or fewer points.
This game is being played on a neutral at Madison Square Garden. Maryland is the much better rounded team at all positions including the bench. The Terapins have at least five NBA prospects and are one of the top 4 teams in the nation in my opinion. They did lose at North Carolina on the road last week, but that was a true road game and the Tar heels are much stronger than UConn.
Maryland is ranked third in the nation in shooting at 54.5%. They shoot free throws at 75.8% as the whole starting five, and shoot the three pointer at 39.6%.
Connecticut has two losses on the season and both games were on a neutral floor to Syracuse and Gonzaga. Maryland is at least 6 points better in my opinion that both Syracuse and Gonzaga. I have seen early flaws in both teams this season and Maryland doesn't have a weakness.
Play on Game #559 Stony Brook (Tuesday, 9:00 PM EST)
While many are not familiar with Stony Brook, this team can flat out play ball. They took a very good Vanderbilt team into overtime on Vandy's home floor earlier this season. Their other loss was by one point at Western Kentucky. So their two losses this season have been by seven in overtime and one point in regulation. Stony Brook had a double digit lead on Vanderbilt in the second half.
Stony Brook returns all five of their starters from last season. They have three senior starters that provide leadership led by 6'8 255 Jameel Warney who is averaging 18.2 ppg/ 13/2 rpg. H was 10-for-18 against Vanderbilt from the floor with 11 rebounds which tells me he is a beast down low considering the seven footers that Vandy has. As a team, Stony Brook is only turning the ball over 12 times a game while dishing out 19 assist a game.
For the Irish, I think this team is a bit overrated. I feel that the losses of Grant and Connaughton were huge as the Irish team last season was built around these two guys. When they needed a big play, one of them could give it to them. Also, with the loss of Grant, the Irish don't have a point guard that can penetrate and create on their own as easy as Grant. Demetrius Jackson has taken over at point but he is still not as polished as Grant. Notre Dame does not have a lot of depth as they have used a strict seven man rotation with the 5th and 6th guys just logging in 15 minutes a game and being rather ineffective. I will also note that the Irish are struggling shooting free throws. Auguste (56%), Vasturia (66%), Beachem (33%).
It will take a full team effort to get a cover against Stony Brook and I don't think that Notre Dame has that right now. They are built around two guys, Jackson and Auguste. Stony Brook has an answer for Auguste with Warney down low.
Notre Dame has two losses this season to inferior opponents. They lost 74-73 to Alabama as a 10.5 point favorite and lost 70-68 to Monmouth as a 9 point favorite. There last two wins have come by only 5 points against Illinois and by 6 points against Iowa.
Play on Game #505 Houston Rockets (Tuesday, 7:35 PM EST)
This is a big revenge game for Houston as the Nets beat them straight up last month as a double digit road dog. The Nets proceeded to go on a big run covering against the spread, but have now cooled off having not covered their last two games. They haven't reached under 100 points scoring their last six games. Now Hollis-Jefferson is out with an injury and so is Bargnani.
Houston is playing much better ball as they have won five of their last six games. Houston is 2-0 SU and ATS in their last two games on the front end of a back to back with both wins being on the road. They play the Wizards tomorrow night. Take the Rockets to get the win and cover.
Play on Game #502 Indiana Pacers (Tuesday, 7:05 PM EST)
Golden State is playing their third road game in four nights and are playing their fifth road game on a current seven game trip. After getting a scare from Toronto on Saturday, Golden State had a strong fourth quarter to get the cover against Brooklyn on Sunday. Tonight they are facing an Indiana team that gave them fits last season.
The Pacers won 104-98 at home last year as a four point homedog. Steph Curry didn't play that game, but I will also note that Paul George was out for the Pacers and I will call this a wash as both guys are the team's best players. While Steph Curry is playing at an MVP level once again, Paul George is averaging 32.4 ppg his last five games and 27.6 ppg on the season.
After starting off the season 0-2, the Pacers are 12-4 in their last 16 games and have had two days rest since finishing up a road trip out west. Indiana is 11-0 ATS in their last 11 games playing on two days rest. The Pacers are 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS their last six home games this year. They are also 9-0 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a winning straight up record meaning that the Pacers play up to their level of competition. Golden State has always struggled playing at Indiana as they are 2-12 ATS the last 14 meetings in Indiana.
Georgia is down this year and are struggling to win games, yet alone cover spreads. Georgia has played five home games this season vs. Chattanooga, Murray State, High Point, Oakland, and Kansas State. Their three wins at home have come by 3, 4, and 11 points. Overall, Georgia is 1-5 ATS overall this season.
Winthrop has been a consistent team in the Big South over the last two years. They play stingy defense and smart, opportunistic offense. They are shooting 73.6% from the foul line. Six of their eight players in the rotation are shooting 48% or better from the floor.
Winthrop's one loss this season came at NC State by eight points which would be enough to stay within the posted number here. I also have NC State rated higher than Georgia in my rankings. Look for a close game here tonight.
Phoenix @ Chicago----This is a great spot for the Bulls. Phoenix is coming off a tough loss yesterday by two points with a shot at the buzzer. Playing on the road in consecutive nights is always a challenge, but to be able to regroup after losing such a tough game is always harder. For Phoenix, this fifth road game in seven nights and the final road game of their trip. The feeling here is they just want to get back home and get some rest before they play Orlando on Friday.
Chicago is coming off a home loss against Charlotte on Saturday night. The Bulls are 5-0 SU and ATS this season when coming off a loss.
Before the Bulls game on Saturday the Bulls had two days rest and they have had a beneficial schedule as this will be only their eleventh game in the last 28 days. For Phoenix, this is their eleventh game in the last 18 days.
The Bulls won at Phoenix a few weeks ago without Derrick Rose in the lineup 103-97. Tyson Chandler played for Phoenix in that game for 30 minutes. Chandler is out now and the Suns don't have much depth down low.
Bledsoe and Jon Leuer each logged 40 minutes yesterday. Brandon Knight logged 37.
I am looking for a fresh, focused, and motivated Bulls team to put the blowers on here at home Monday night. *Chicago*
Play on Game #378 Pittsburgh Steelers (Sunday, 8:30 PM EST)
I like Pittsburgh here to win convincingly. They played the Colts last year and torched them to a tune of 51-34.
Pittsburgh is coming off a loss at Seattle. They outgained Seattle by 102 yards in that game. This offense is rolling right now as the Steelers have outgained their last four opponents.
The Colts are 4-0 with Hasslebeck as the quarterback. Congratulations for the 40 year old to get the Colts out of the doghouse, but he is outclassed in this game and he is overdue for a bad game. Playing in Pittsburgh on primetime television, I feel it coming.
The Colts have been outgained in every game this season but one. That is a huge red flag for me and tells me this team has been getting some phony wins. The defense is rather bad and the running game is still sub-par.
The Steelers have scored 30+ points in three straight games under Big Ben. He is good to go for Sunday. The Colts don't have an offense to keep up nor do they have a defense to slow down the Steelers. Linebacker Freeman is expected to miss this game as two offensive linemen are also expected to miss for the Colts.
Play on Game #523 Vanderbilt (Sunday, 8:00 PM EST)
This is revenge for Vanderbilt after losing a heartbreaker to Baylor last year at home, 66-63. The difference from last season to this season is that Vanderbilt is a much better team that returns all five of their starters and that Baylor lost their starting point guard and also Royce O'Neale who was second on the team in assist last year.
Vanderbilt shot 3-for-18 from the three point line last year in this game. That will not happen this season as the Commodores have snipers all over the court that can shoot lights out.
Baylor's strength is down low but Vanderbilt can matchup with them as they have three seven footers. Baylor's weakness is at the point and on the perimeter. Vanderbilt has excellent guards.
Baylor has played only one decent opponent. That was Oregon and they lost by seven points. This is a big step up in class for the Bears and I don't think they are ready for it. Vanderbilt will be fully focused with revenge on their mind.
Play on Game #506 Brooklyn Nets (Sunday, 6:05 PM EST)
The Nets are coming off a 17 points loss on Friday against the Knicks. They started off in a hole on the road and couldn't come back. The Nets are still one of the NBA's best covering teams recently as they are 10-2 ATS their last twelve games. The Nets took the Warriors into overtime in Oracle a few weeks ago and lost 107-99, covering the 16 point spread. While the Warriors will not take the Nets lightly this go around, I also expect a superb effort from Brooklyn especially playing at home where they are 4-0 SU and ATS winning all four games as a homedog. Golden State is playing a back to back to road game which is not easy for any team, but especially not a West Coast team on the East Coast. Also Harrison Barnes injury is still a factor and I think it should warranted for this game. Luke Walton stated that he will not overplay players on this road trip and be cautious with minutes. Golden State has a revenge game vs. the Pacers on deck Tuesday night and they do just enough here to get the win.
Curry, Thompson, and Green played heavy minutes last night and scored 77% of the teams points. Curry and Thompson went 14-for-24 from the three point line. While they are capable of pulling off another great shooting performance, I feel the odds are weighted more in our favor that they won't.
The last ten meetings have been decided by 8, 2, 8, 7, 4, 7, 9, 2, 7, and 4 points.
Play on Game #372 San Diego Chargers (Sunday, 4:05 PM EST)
Big kudos goes to the Broncos for knocking off the Patriots at home last week. I had Denver so I liked the outcome as well. I also like the way this game is setting up as to fade Denver as they head on the road to face the Chargers, a tough divisional opponent.
This is the ultimate let-down spot in the NFL. Denver was down by two touchdowns to the Patriots who were undefeated. It took everything they had and a little luck to win the game. Now the Broncos are going to be in a role reversal role laying points to the Chargers.
This game also fits a powerful system play that is 24-4 (85%). We want to play against any NFL road team after upsetting the defending Super Bowl champion in their last game if they are facing a team that is off a win of four or more points (San Diego).
Denver is a team that is playing conservative and more not to lose than to win under Brock Osweiler. This is Phillip Rivers and the Chargers chance to get a win against the Broncos without Peyton Manning and I think they embrace the opportunity.
Denver is 5-1 on the road this season, but they have not been dominant. They lost 27-24 at Indy which gives evidence that Rives can take a page out of the Colts playbook for this game. The Broncos barely slid by the Bears by two points, won by three in overtime against the bad news Browns, won by six points at Oakland thanks to a pick six by Derek Carr in the 4th quarter, and they beat the Chiefs by seven points on a Thursday night after a Jamal Charles fumble late in the fourth quarter. My point being is that ALL six of their road games have been decided by seven points or less and have been rather fortunate to win a couple of those games.
The Denver defense is still stout, but they are not making game changing plays like earlier in the season. The defense is also banged up missing two starters in safety T.J. Ward and nose tackle Sylvester Williams. DeMarcus Ware returned to practice this week but he might be on a snap count if he plays this Sunday limiting his effectiveness. Also offensive lineman Vasquez got injured last week.
The Chargers are getting back healthy. Manti Teo and Perryman at linebacker are making plays. The offensive line is getting healthy. Phillip Rivers is one of the most competitive quarterbacks in the NFL. Look for an inspired effort from the Chargers and a flat performance from Denver.
Play on Game #502 Memphis Grizzlies (Sunday, 3:35 PM EST)
The Suns are now playing their fifth road game on this trip and have the Bulls tomorrow night. They have lost their last three road games and are 2-8 ATS their last 10 games. The defense has given up 102 or more points in eight of their last ten games. Memphis is going to play defense and that will be the key to this game. The Grizzlies having two day's rest after losing to the Spurs and considering the fact that Memphis is 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS the last seven meetings, I don't mind laying the points with the Grizzlies Sunday afternoon.
Play on Game #365 Arizona Cardinals (Sunday, 1:00 PM EST)
This is a huge revenge game for Arizona after losing at home to the Rams in Week 4, 24-22. They had to settle for four field goals.
Arizona dominated the game with 26 first downs to only 13 for the Rams and outgained them by 119 yards. Gurley has 146 yards for the Rams. He has cooled off in his last four games now as teams have made adjustments and the Rams offensive line is banged up. Gurley is only averaging 54 yards a game for 3.1 yards a carry his last four games, compared to 141 yards a game and 6.4 yards a carry his previous four.
The Rams team as a whole is in turmoil. Jeff Fisher is on his way out the door. The offense is next to last in the NFL with only 304 yards a game. Both quarterbacks are terrible regardless of who gets the start. The pass rush has not been effective over there last four games only registering four sacks. Defensive end Robert Quinn might not play this week either.
Arizona has the #1 total offense in the NFL. Michael Floyd and Brown are back healthy and this team is going to score, no question. The Cardinals defense is ranked #5 overall. Look for Arizona to cruise to an easy win and cover.
Play on Game #364 Minnesota Vikings (Sunday, 1:00 PM EST)
The Vikings come into this game 4-1 SU at home. The lone loss was to Green Bay a few weeks ago. The Packers were in dire need of a win then coming off three straight losses. The Seahawks come into this game off a big emotional win against Pittsburgh at home and now have to go on the road where they have struggled this season.
Seattle has only two wins on the road this season, at San Francisco and the other by one point at Dallas when the Cowboys had Cassel as quarterback and settled for four field goals. San Fran and Dallas have a combined record this season of 6-16 so that is not saying much.
Seattle's defense is way down this season. They have now gotten outgained in four of their last six games. The offense has become more limited also with Marshawn Lynch being injured and now tight end Jimmy Graham is out as well. Graham was second on the team in targets and receptions and was leading the team in first downs with 29. Graham is one of the most reliable tight ends in the NFL and was Russell Wilson's go-to-man on third downs.
Adrian Peterson has came on strong for the Vikings as of late as he has re-emerged as a back that likes to run over guys and he is hard to take down.
Seattle is 3-7 SU their last 10 road games vs. the NFC North. Their last visit to Minnesota was in 2009 when the Vikings won 35-9. The Vikings are 9-1 SU their last 10 home games vs. the NFC West. In these 10 games, they have held the NFC West opponent to an average of 16 ppg.
Play on Game #360 Miami Dolphins (Sunday, 1:00 PM EST)
Baltimore is coming off a win on Monday Night against the Browns that took everything they had to get the win. This team is not the same 'Ravens' team that we are used to seeing. A lot of it has to do with injuries. Flacco, Forsett, Suggs, Steve Smith, and the list goes on to the tune of 10 players on the injured reserved list. I strongly think that Flacco is a full touchdown better than Matt Schaub, given the fact that Schaub is usually good for tossing a pick six. He did not disappoint on Monday night either with one. The Dolphins secondary will be licking their chops.
I don't think the linesmakers can adjust enough for this game. Flacco, Forsett, and Smith were the three guys that make this offense go. Now, the Ravens are probably the least talented team in the NFL currently.
Miami is playing better under head coach Dan Campbell. They are 3-4 under him opposed to going 1-3 before Philbin got fired. I will note that in Campbell's first game as the interim head coach, the Dolphins rallied behind him to a 38-10 win at Tennessee. I make note of this because now the Dolphins offensive coordinator got fired on Monday and I look for the team to rally once again.
The situation favors Miami in this game. If the Ravens were playing with a full deck, I might think twice. But they are crippled and wounded and it's time to take advantage.
Play on Game #330 Clemson Tigers (Saturday, 8:00 PM EST)
North Carolina is making their first ever appearance in the ACC Championship. Clemson is making their third. Clemson has been here before, North Carolina has not. Clemson has been on this stage and has also been on bigger stages in the postseason. The last three years, Clemson has played Oklahoma, Ohio State, and LSU in a bowl game. North Carolina has played Rutgers, Cincinnati, and Missouri the last three years in their bowl games, my point being is Clemson is a team that has been on the bigger stage before.
A couple statistics that I think are huge for this game. Clemson is #1 in the nation when it comes to third down conversions as they are only allowing opponents to convert 24% of the time. North Carolina on the other hand is allowing opponents to convert 42% of the time. Also rushing defense is another big stat as North Carolina is giving up 208 yards a game on the ground which is 105th in the nation. Clemson is ranked 24th in the nation only giving up 127 yards a game.
While Carolina's defense appears to be better this season on paper, the truth about it is they have played two FCS opponents, and have only played one team in the Top 25.
In conference play, Clemson outgained their opponents by an average of 272 yards a game. North Carolina on the other hand outgained their opponents by only 80 yards. Clemson is holding opponents to 100 yards under their season average while North Carolina actually allowed their opponents to 37 yards above their season average. This all equates to Clemson being the superior defensive team and the more consistent and efficient team.
Injuries: Sam Smiley, North Carolina's senior starting safety is out with an injury.
Clemson is as healthy as they have been all season long. Norton is healthy under center. Gallman is good to go at running back.
Clemson has beaten North Carolina the last two meetings with scores of 50-35 and 59-38. I will also note that North Carolina only had 84 and 102 rushing in these two games. Freshman speedster Ray Ray McCloud would be good to go also after missing the last couple of games.
Deshaun Watson has more big game experience than Marquise Williams for Carolina. Watson played against #1 FSU last year. He then beat FSU this season for Clemson's first win over the Seminoles since 2011. He guided his team to win in the rain over a top 10 Notre Dame team also.
Ball security: Williams for Carolina has eight fumbles on the season with four lost. Watson has only three fumbles with only one lost.
The favorite is 4-0 in this series the last four meetings. Clemson's last seven wins over North Carolina have been by 15, 21, 45, 8, 30, 14, and 11 points. While North Carolina is a better team than in the past, so is Clemson and the Tigers have had their way with the Tar heels in the past. Look for Clemson to roll.
Play on Game #710 Houston Rockets (Saturday, 8:05 PM EST)
This line is too low in my opinion for a Houston team that is turning things around under interim coach Bickerstaff.
Sacramento is 1-3 in their last four games and is coming off a terrible game in the high altitude of Mexico. Willie Cauley Stein got injured and this is important for this game as the Rockets have the edge down low with Howard and Copella. Howard did not play last night so he will be rested for this game. Houston has won six straight against the Kings and have covered five of the six. Harden is averaging 46 ppg his last three games against Sacramento. Look for Houston to get the cover tonight.
Play on Game #323 USC Trojans (Saturday, 7:45 PM EST)
This is a same season revenge game for USC. They lost at the Coliseum earlier this year as a 9.5 point favorite. Since that loss, Sarkisian got fired who was the cause of the team's struggles at the time in my opinion. Since then Clay Helton has taken over and it was just announced this week that he would become the official USC head coach. I think this gives the team a solid unity as a whole as the players have bought in to Helton as their coach.
Stanford is riding high from last week's win against Notre Dame. It appeared Notre Dame scored the game winning touchdown before Stanford came back with a field goal that won the game as time expired. I would have rather them lose head up if they weren't going to cover as I had Stanford in that game. A red flag came from that game as the Stanford defense has not been able to stop anybody lately. They have now gotten outgained in two consecutive games and three of their last five. I will also note that two of their last 4 wins have only been by two points.
USC only gotten outgained by 47 yards in the loss earlier this year to Stanford. They have only gotten outgained in one other game this season and that was at Oregon two weeks as the Ducks were playing their best ball of the season.
Cody Kessler has a 9 TD/ 1 INT mark his last five games. Hogan is coming off a season best 17-for-21 with 4 TD and a 81% completion mark along with a 251.1 QB rating against Notre Dame. Hogan is a senior, but I can't see him play another near perfect game.
Statistically, USC and Stanford are very equal. USC has a +58 net yard advantage over opponents this season. Stanford has a +61 net yard advantage.
Before Stanford's 41-31 win against USC, the previous two matchups had been decided by a field goal. The last 5 6 matchups have been decided by 10 points or less. I know 10 points is more than what the spread is for this game, but my point is this is a series that tends to see close games. I will also note that typically when teams play each other twice in a season, we tend to see a closer game played the second time around.
While Stanford is a team known for dominating the time of possession, this is a different USC team than earlier in the season as USC has turned into a team that does the same thing. They dominated UCLA last week in the time of possession category by a 2:1 margin as they had the ball for 40 minutes.
The Stanford defense has been getting gashed as they gave up 231 yards to Oregon a few weeks ago, then gave up 299 rushing yards against Notre Dame last week. USC will utilize Ronald Jones and Justin Davis in the backfield and look to control the clock and give Stanford a taste of their own medicine. I really like USC to win this game, but if they do lose, I cannot see it being by more than a field goal.
Play on Game #325 Florida Gators (Saturday, 4:00 PM EST)
Florida Head coach Jim McElwain has ties with Alabama as he was got hired to be the offensive coordinator in 2008. He led the Tide to a 12-0 season in 2008 before they lost in the SEC Championship to guess who...Florida. Now in McElwain's first season he has led the Gators to the SEC Championship and I really think that McElwain and the Gators have a coaching edge over Saban and the Tide. Kirby Smart, Saban's defensive coordinator for the last nine years, has been the talk of possibly taking over the head coaching job at Georgia. Also Lane Kiffin, the Tide's offensive coordinator, has been rumored about several head coaching jobs as well. I am not basing my decision on coaching, but I do strongly feel like the Gators coaching staff will be the more focused as well as motivated staff.
Alabama has the #1 defense in the SEC, but Florida is right behind them at #2. Alabama is allowing 14.3 ppg while Florida is only giving up 15.5. Overall, Alabama has only a +17 yard defense than Florida. These two defenses are matched up very evenly as far as sacks and interception's is concerned.
Playing on a neutral field in the Georgia Dome, I do not think that the Alabama offense is 17 points better than Florida. I do not think that Jake Coker is polished enough to make those completions on third down that he will need to make. Derrick Henry is off a career performance and now is the leader in the Heisman race. I like to look to fade the team who has the Heisman leader as the pressure mounts.
Alabama is averaging 34.5 ppg this season. Florida is averaging 25.3 ppg, which is 9 points less than Alabama.
Florida lost last week 27-2 to Florida State. Clearly the Gators were looking ahead to this game. Even if they were not, they actually played the Seminoles much closer than what the final score indicated. Florida had 19 first downs to only 15 for FSU. They held the Seminoles to 2-for-13 on third down. The Gators had the time of possession edge also at 32:25 to 27:35.
This is the Gators eleventh SEC Championship appearance. They are 7-3 SU all time. Dating back to 1998, there has been a double digit spread 4 times. ALL four games have been decided by 15 points or less (15, 11, 6, and 1)
Play on Game #771 William and Mary (Saturday, 2:00 PM EST)
William and Mary is 3-0 ATS in lined games this season. They beat NC State on the road and they played a good Dayton team to a 69-66 loss two weeks ago as a 9.5 road dog. William and Mary won 20 games last season and return four starters this season along with a deep bench. The starting five includes two seniors and two juniors. The Tribe are holding opponents to 39% from the floor this season.
For Virginia, they are coming off a satisfying road win at Ohio State and have upcoming games vs. #20 West Virginia and then #8 Villanova. This is a sandwich game here and I don't see the motivation for them to want to cover. Virginia is still working on their team chemistry after losing Atkins (top defender) and Anderson (top scorer) from last season. This team still is talented, but they were not dominant against a 'down' Ohio State (won by 6) and lost to George Washington.
Both teams prefer to play at a slower pace and points will be harder to come by, thus favoring the underdog, William and Mary, even more in this game.
Virginia's starting point guard London Perrantes had appendix surgery last Sunday and missed the game vs. Ohio State. While it is not known at the time if he will play on Saturday, I think that if he does play, he will not be 100% and that the line is not reflecting his status.
Play on Game #702 Philadelphia 76ers (Saturday, 1:05 PM EST)
Okafor is suspended for this game but Denver should never be laying points on the road to anybody. I don't care if it is Philly. Denver is playing their third road game in four nights and their final road game on their five game road trip. Coming off a satisfying win against Toronto, I can't see any motivation for this game. I can see motivation for Philly since they did win their last home game against the Lakers. They have confidence now. Also, this game starts early at 1:00 PM EST which is very early for this Denver team as they are not at all used to playing these games with an early start time.
Philly has won the last three matchups in this series including a 105-98 win as a homedog last year.
Philly is 6-0 ATS their last six games following a loss. They are 6-0 ATS their last six games vs. the Western Conference. The underdog is 6-1 ATS the last seven meetings with Philly being 5-1 ATS the last six meetings.
For Denver, shooting guard Gary Harris is expected to miss this game. Also, Kenneth Faried is questionable to play with an ankle injury. Given the fact that this is an early game and it is against 'Philly', I'm on a lean he doesn't play.
Troy Wroten for Philly is expected to play today and give help off the bench for 12-15 minutes.
Wisconsin is coming off a tough overtime win at Syracuse. Syracuse had a loss coming and they really aren't that good of a shooting team, so the win did not surprise me nor do I give Wisconsin much respect for the win. The linesmakers still favor Wisconsin this season even after they lost at home to Western Illinois as a 25.5 point favorite. They lost by 10 points to Georgetown in a neutral and Oklahoma blew them out by 17. Wisconsin is now only 2-6 ATS this season. They are 1-4 ATS as a favorite. Temple on the other hand has now covered their last four games.
Wisconsin lost five players that played in the National Championship last year. Kaminsky and Dekker were 1st round picks in the NBA. Jackson and Gasser were important veteran guards. The losses are huge and Wisconsin is simply not that good right now. While they probably will get better as the year goes on, I want to fade them while the gettin' is still good.
Temple is battle tested already this season. They have played North Carolina, Butler, and Utah. After losing by 24 to the Tar heels, they only lost by 5 to Butler and lost by 6 to Utah. Temple at scored at least 67 points in every game this season. I can't see Wisconsin topping 70 in this one.
Temple has the better defense on the season statistically allowing 40.4% shooting compared to 44% for Wisconsin.
Temple has one of the best guard/forward combo's in the A-10 with DeCosey and Jaylen Bond. They two are combining for over 26 ppg and they have two more guys that are averaging double digits, one being a senior transfer from Clemson
Play on Game #304 Bowling Green (Friday, 8:00 PM EST)
This game is played on a neutral at Ford Field in Detroit Michigan. The Northern Illinois football program is no stranger to the MAC Championship game as this will be their sixth consecutive appearance. The stage is much different this time around as they will be starting their third string quarterback who will be making his first career start. They have played Bowling Green the last two seasons. In 2013 Bowling Green beat the Huskies 47-27. Last year, it was Northern Illinois who got their revenge with a 51-17 victory. This year I look for Bowling Green to get their revenge and cruise to an easy victory.
A big edge here for Bowling Green at the quarterback position with Matt Johnson who has 41 TD's on the season to only 6 INT with over 4400 passing yards. He has four receivers with 52 receptions or more. For Northern Illinois, they will be starting Tommy Fielder who is a freshman that will be making his first start of the season. He came in last week for injured and went a mediocre 7-for-19 for 113 yards against an Ohio secondary that is injury depleted. This is Northern Illinois third string quarterback as Drew Hare got injured last month and putting him on such a big stage, I cannot see him keeping his team in striking distance.
Bowling Green has scored at least 28 ppg in every game this season and are averaging 44 ppg. Their defense has improved 72 yards a game this season. They have improved against the rush by almost from 5 yards a carry to only 4.1 this season. Northern Illinois has been outgained in three of their last four games since Hare got injured. They don't have enough firepower for this game and the defense will get worn out in the second half. Bowling Green rolls 48-20.
Play on Game #548Vanderbilt (Wednesday, 8:00 PM EST)
Detroit is ranked #334 in the nation in defense this year as opposing teams are shooting 51.2% from the floor. They have not yet played a quality opponent like Vanderbilt either. Their toughest team so far was Pittsburgh and they can't shoot like Vanderbilt can. The other three teams were Oral Roberts, Central State (OH), and a team called Michigan-Dearborn. For them to be giving up over 50% against these four teams is ridiculous. Vanderbilt in my opinion has the best collective group of shooters in the nation and if you don't put a hand in their face, they will kill you. Detroit has given up 95and 100 points in their two losses this season. That is about what I see Vanderbilt scoring tonight.
Detroit does not have a player on the roster taller than 6'8. Vanderbilt has two seven footer in Jones and Kornet along with another footer in Josh Henderson. The size down low will be a huge mismatch for Detroit. Also, Vanderbilt has six guys on the team that can all shoot the three ball.
Defensively, Vanderbilt ranks among the best in the nation as they are only allowing 60.7 ppg, 36% shooting from the floor (24% from the three point line).
Detroit lost their best two players from last season including Juwan Howard J.R. who was Mr. Do Everything. This season, Paris Bass was going to be the man, but he got suspended. There is just not a lot of talent on this team this season.
Vanderbilt lost in the finals of the Maui Invitational. Coach Stallings and his players will be hungry to put on a clinic on their home court tonight to get that bad taste out of their mouth. Vanderbilt is 4-0 ATS dating back to last season when coming off a loss. Memorial Gymnasium is a very tough place for opponents to play in for their first time as the benches are on the baseline instead of being on the usual sideline. It makes it tough for the coach to coach the kids when his team is all the way on the other side of the court.
Vanderbilt is 6-2 ATS their last 8 home games as a favorite of 15 or more point, including a 80-41 win over Austin Peay this season. Of these eight games, they have not allowed more than 62 points. I said above that the Commodores should be able to hang 90+ against Detroit tonight, thus I see them covering this 20+ point spread with ease.
Play on Game #508 New York Knicks (Wednesday, 7:35 PM EST)
This is the most ultimate of let-downs in the NBA world. Philly just ended a 28 game losing streak last night. The partying is assumed to be heavy last night. These are young players that still lack the maturity to handle situations properly as professionals. Now the 76ers have to play on a back-to-back and they will be caught with their pants down against a Knicks team that is playing with two days rest. They are also expected to have Carmelo Anthony back in the lineup as he participated in practice on Tuesday. The Knicks have lost four straight games. This is a perfect bounce back spot for them.
The 76ers are playing their third game in four nights. After playing a six game road trip, then coming back home last night, and now going on the road again, this is a tough challenge for any team, especially an offensively challenged team like Philly. Dating back to last season, Philly is 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a SU win.
Play on Game #741 Texas-Arlington (Tuesday, 8:00 PM EST)
Texas-Arlington comes into this game with straight up wins this season over Ohio State and Memphis. This is a team that played in four exhibition games in the Bahamas and went 4-0 winning by an average of 39 points. UT-Arlington has great depth as they can go ten players deep. Their defense has been stout holding opponents to 39.1% from the floor which includes 29% from the three point line. They are also forcing turnovers 19.6% of the time.
Kevin Hervey leads the way for Arlington as he is averaging 13 rebounds his last three games and 17.7 ppg for the season. He shoots 88.5% from the foul line also which is a plus as the ball will be in his hands when it's crunch time.
On paper, these two teams matchup fairly evenly as far as statistics go. UT-Arlington does have a rebounding edge as they are ranked #1 in the nation in offensive rebounding and #8 overall in total rebounding.
Texas is still adapting to coach, Shaka Smart's system and the talent at Texas is lacking and it appears it will take time before they are a threat. Texas is 2-3 SU on the season. Their two wins came by 11 and 12 points. The 12 point win was against Washington last week who plays no defense and the 11 point win was against Texas AM-CC who lost to Texas AM by 25 points this season, so that win was nothing to brag on. The Longhorns are working three freshmen in the rotation who are shooting a combined 33% from the floor. Cameron Ridley is trying to lead the way in the paint, but he leads the team with 3.4 turnovers a game and only shoots 43% from the line. UT-Arlington has depth in their frontcourt to match-up with Ridley and use their fouls to put him on the line.
These teams have played annually the last four seasons. The last two years, Texas only won by 10 and 3 points. Last year, UT-Arlington held Texas to 30% shooting from the floor. UT-Arlington is 7-2 ATS their last nine road games as a double digit underdog.
Play on Game #516 LA Clippers (Monday, 10:35 PM EST)
Big time value here with the Clippers. They will have no problem being motivated for this game after losing to Portland a few weeks ago 102-91 at Portland. The Clippers are playing their fourth straight home game which I also see as an advantage. They have won their last two home games by 21 and 8 points. Chris Paul and J.J. Redick are both healthy as they had been banged up. The Clippers have the deepest bench in the NBA I will also add which I think is a big edge for this game as the Portland bench is among the thinnest in the West. While the Clippers have not been the best covering team this season, I believe this line has been over-adjusted and it's a great time to buy in. Portland relies heavily on Lilliard and McCollum in the backcourt and the Clippers have an equalizer with Paul and Redick. Meyers Leonard, Aminu, and Plumlee are no match down low for Griffin and Jordan. Crawford coming off the bench for the Clippers is always instant offense. I think the Clippers starting five will outscore Portland, but I also think this spread will be covered by the Clippers bench. Lay the points with the Clippers.
Play on Game #506 Chicago Bulls (Monday, 8:05 PM EST)
The Bulls are coming off a four game road trip and are now back at home. They are also coming off a loss and have not lost back to back games this season. After a loss, the Bulls have held their opponents to 87, 98, 99, and 88 points. They are 5-1 at home this season. The one loss was in overtime to the T'Wolves who are a perfect 9-0 ATS on the road, so I can give that game a pass as well as the fact the Bulls tend to play to the level of their competition. Chicago beat the Cavs and the Thunder at home this year. They also went toe to toe with Golden State on the road minus Derrick Rose until the last two minutes of the game.
All three of the Spurs losses have come on the road this season. I think we see a playoff type of atmosphere here and I think the Bulls jump out to an early lead at home and hold onto it. At home this year, the Bulls are averaging 52.8 ppg in the first half compared to 46.5 for their opponents. Look for the Bulls to respond off a loss like they have all season long with a cover here at home on Monday night.
Play on Game #510 Atlanta Hawks (Monday, 8:05 PM EST)
The Hawks have now alternated wins/losses their last six games. They lost at San Antonio on Saturday and should be excited to be coming back home after a 3 game road trip and having to play four games in five nights. They are also healthy in the backcourt with Teague and Bazemore back in the lineup.
The Thunder are on a four game winning streak, but I still don't think they are good enough to lay points on the road to the Hawks who were inserted as a homedog last year against the Cavs and the Warriors (who played in the NBA Finals) and they beat both of them straight up. The Thunder have been a road favorite three times this season. They are 1-2 ATS. They laid 7.5 to Orlando and were down double digits in the 4th quarter before coming back in 2 OT to win by three points. They also lost head up to the Rockets as a road favorite.
Millsap and Horford can stretch the floor, pulling Ibaka and Adams away from the paint. Teague and Schroder can penetrate and use the pick and roll.
The Hawks were a 3.5 point home favorite last year when these two teams met. The Hawks won the game 103-93. Westbrook and Durant both played for the Thunder in that game.
Play on Game #274 Denver Broncos (Sunday, 8:30 PM EST)
The Broncos beat Green Bay who was undefeated at the time last month as a homedog. The defense dominated the game and baffled Aaron Rodgers. When these teams met in the 2014 playoffs, Denver was a 5 point home favorite and won 26-16. Last year New England won 43-21 in a revenge game in Foxboro but the Broncos outgained New England 472-398. They have outgained New England in the last two matchups. The home team has won the last five matchups going 5-0 ATS. The New England offense is sputtering with the injuries piling up. They got outgained against the Giants and barely won 27-26. They only outgained Buffalo by 37 yards and now have to go on the road and play on a short week of rest. Amendola also went out with an injury against the Bills and so did WR Dobson. The Broncos have a pass rush to put pressure on Brady. The Broncos have the #1 defense in the NFL. They only give up 3.5 yards a rush which is #1 in the AFC. They only give up 6.2 yards an attempt which is also #1 in the AFC. The Broncos upgraded their quarterback position with starting Osweiler who went 20-for-27 on the road last week against the Bears. I look for him to lead his team again on Sunday. Take the Broncos on Sunday night to get the cover.
Play on Game #271 Pittsburgh Steelers (Sunday, 4:25 PM EST)
Everything is not okay in Seattle. Take away their two wins against the 49ers and their win against the Bears who had Clausen starting, Seattle is 2-5 SU 0-6-1 ATS. They will be playing a Pittsburgh team that is playing with a week of rest and looking to make a run for the division as they are only two games back of the Bengals now.
The Steelers have 4 losses on the season. They lost by 7 at New England. The Patriots have won all of their home games this season by 7 or more points. They lost by three points at Baltimore with Vick as the QB. They lost by 10 at Kansas City as Landry Jones had to make his first career start. Then they lost by six to the Bengals in Big Ben's first game back and it was a game they should had won in my opinion.
Pittsburgh is 2nd in the NFL averaging 6.3 yards a play. They are tied for first averaging 4.9 yards per rush. They also lead the NFL with 13 running plays of 20+ yards. The Steelers are giving up only 19.1 ppg this year, tied for 5th. They are tied for 8th with 28 sacks. They are also tied for 5th giving up only 93 rushing yards a game.
The Seahawks defense is down this year. They have only 4 interceptions on the season. They have lost their last two home games, giving up 39 and 27 points.
The Steelers are 3-0 vs. the NFC West this season. The Steelers are 6-2 after a bye week under Mike Tomlin. Take the Steelers with the points.
Play on Game #270 San Francisco 49ers (Sunday, 4:25 PM EST)
Arizona is coming off arguably their two biggest wins of the season winning at Seattle then beating the Bengals last Sunday, both of which were Primetime games. It will be hard for them to get up for this game and play with the same enthusiasm as in the last two weeks.
To the 49ers credit, all three of there wins have been at home this season. The two losses were by 14 to Green Bay (they held the Packers to 17 points and had chances to cover) and then they lost by 17 to Seattle (they held the Seahawks to 20 points on a Thursday night). My points here is that the defense has been playing good at home as they are only giving up 15.2 at home. I think putting Gabbert in at quarterback can be counted on as a small upgrade honestly as Kaepernick had been playing with a 'bum' shoulder. Anquan Boldin has been nursing a hamstring but appears to be close to 100%.
Last year when these two teams met, the 49ers were a 6.5 point home favorite. We are almost seeing a 17 point differential for this game and I think it is too many points. Also, the fact that the 49ers are playing with revenge after giving up 47 points to Arizona earlier this season. It was mainly Kaepernick's fault though as he threw 4 INT's and two of them were returned for a touchdown.
San Fran beat Minnesota and Atlanta straight up at home. I know Arizona is better than both of those teams, but my point is that this team competes at home.
San Fran has not been a double digit homedog since the 2006 season. Arizona is playing their 5th road game now in 7 weeks. They have a same season revenge game on deck with the Rams next week. Look for the 49ers to leave it all on the field this Sunday afternoon.
Arizona's starting defensive end Frostee Rucker is doubtful. Cornerback Patrick Peterson is listed as questionable but might not be 100% as he was still limping in practice. Michael Floyd is nursing a hamstring injury and guard Jonathan Cooper might not be able to play either.
Play on Game #218 Stanford Cardinals (Saturday, 7:30 PM EST)
The injuries have been piling up on Notre Dame all season long. The injuries will be too much for them to overcome in this game, especially playing out on the West Coast in Stanford, California.
Notre Dame lost their top 2 running backs at the start of the season. C.J. Prosise filled in nicely running for 6.6 yards a carry for 1032 yards. The problem here is Prosise hurt his ankle and is listed as doubtful. His replacement his Josh Adams (freshman) who got stood up by the Boston College defense last week as he only got 36 yards on 14 carries. Against Wake Forest, Adams had a 98 yard run, but take that away and he only averaged 2.7 yards a carry. Also injured for Notre Dame is DB KeiVarae Russell who was second on the team with 60 tackles. He also had 2 INT and 2 forced fumbles on the season along with 3.5 tackles for a loss. Also for Notre Dame, junior starting linebacker James Onwualu is likely to miss this game with a MCL sprain.
Stanford has one home loss on the season. That was to Oregon two weeks ago and Oregon is playing their best football of the season. Stanford outgained Oregon by 70 yards and should have won that game and covered but missed some chances. The Notre Dame offense has stalled out the last two weeks scoring only 19 points against Boston College and 28 against Wake Forest. (They got outgained by 58 yards against Wake Forest).
Against one common opponent this season, Stanford outgained USC by 47 yards while Notre Dame got outgained by 114 yards against USC.
Stanford has the better run defense in this matchup by 36 yards a game and 1/2 yard a carry. Stanford has one of the best balanced offenses in the nation with senior QB Hogan (67.2% completions, 19 TD/ 7 INT. McCaffrey has 1546 rushing yards, 34 receptions for 416 yards.
Stanford has won the last three meetings at home against Notre Dame by 7, 14, and 7 points.
We have an edge with a more experienced quarterback. We have the nation's leader in all purpose yards. We have a Stanford team that is as healthy as they have been all season long. Notre Dame's injuries along with the big stage for DeShone Fizer will be too much for the Irish to overcome. Take Stanford to get the cover.
Play on Game #502 Washington Wizards (Saturday, 7:05 PM EST)
Five of Toronto's six losses have come on the road. While these two teams might appear to be going in the opposite of directions, this is a matchup that the Wizards have owned in the past and this is a game they can win to get them back headed in the right direction.
The Wizards swept the Raptors in the playoffs. They were a 4.5 and 6.5 point home favorite in Game 3 and 4 of the playoffs, and now are a homedog which is more than enough value to get me involved.
Toronto is coming off a win as a homedog against the Cleveland which is a letdown spot itself and now will be playing a role reversal role which is also not suitable.
The Wizards are coming off a season low 78 point outing at Charlotte last night. The Wizards shot only 32% from the floor and by them being a jump shooting team, the majority of the time we will see the team respond with a much better shooting game the next game. To make our case even stronger, the Wizards were held to only 87 points on Wednesday night. Consecutive games with bad shooting and the odds are in our favor for a bounceback game. The good news is they are back home for this game and that 13 players played last night. My point being is that the starters did not log heavy minutes and should give an all out effort.
Jonas Valanciuncas is out for Toronto. The center is averaging 12.7 ppg and 9.3 rpg. While is absence has not been missed yet, there is no doubt he is an important part to this team.
Toronto is now 0-7 ATS their last 7 vs. the NBA Southeast. The Wizards are 14-6 (70%) their last 20 home games vs. the NBA Central. They have scored 101 or more points in 16 of those 20 games.
Play on Game #178 Utah State (Saturday, 3:30 PM EST)
Utah State is 7-2 ATS the last nine meetings. They are a PERFECT 4-0 ATS as a homedog against BYU dating back to 1999. Utah State is 9-4 ATS as a homedog dating back to 2008. BYU is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a road favorite. Utah State is a perfect 5-0 SU at home this season. BYU is 2-3 SU on the road this season. The two wins have come by only 1 and 5 points. The 5 point win was on a hail mary at Nebraska.
Utah State is only giving up 294 yards a game at home this season. They are running for over 223 yards a game at home. BYU is giving up 197 yards a ground on the road. Utah State is outgaining their opponents by 90 yards at home while BYU is getting outgained by an average of 56 yards a game. Take Utah State.
Play on Game #182 NC State (Saturday, 3:30 PM EST)
I took Virginia Tech last week against North Carolina and got the cover. The Tar heels won in overtime, but did not cover and I want to fade them once again. North Carolina's road wins in conference have now come by 3, 7, and 7 points. Four of their last five games they have only outgained their opponents by 69 yards or less.
NC State has two home losses on the season. They lost by 15 to Clemson. I had NC State that game. They scored 41 points but there defense collapsed. NC State's defense is much better than what they played that game.
N.C. State has covered six of the last eight meetings. Last year they were a 6.5 point road dog at North Carolina and beat the Tar heels 35-7. Now playing at home, they are getting roughly the same amount of points. While North Carolina is improved this year, NC State is also improved, mainly their defense which has improved by 61 yards a game. The underdog is now 13-4 ATS the last 17 meetings.
The quarterbacks have similar numbers on the season. Williams for UNC has a 17 TD/ 7 INT mark and a 64.4 completion rate while Brissett has a 17 TD/ 3 INT mark with a 63% completion rate. NC State has much better defensive numbers at home as they only give up 327 yards a game and are outgaining opponents by an average of 77 yards. On the road, the Tar heels are only outgaining teams by an average of 31 yards.
This is NC State's last home game and they have momentum playing with a win last week and have the scheduling edge playing in back to back home games while North Carolina is playing on back to back road games. Going back to 2012, North Carolina is 0-4 ATS when playing the second game of a back-to-back road set.
Play on Game #145 Ohio State (Saturday, 12:00 PM EST)
There is too much value in this game to pass up. This is Ohio State's first game of the season as an underdog. Last year they handled it quite well going 4-0 SU and ATS. Dating back to 2009, the Buckeyes are 14-2 ATS as an underdog. The last time Michigan was a favorite in this series was in 2011 and Ohio State got the cover in that game. Ohio State is 9-1 SU the last 10 matchups vs. Michigan.
Ezekiel Elliott will get the ball more this game. Urban Meyer said he will be more involved in the play-calling on Saturday. Ohio State got out of their game plan and quit giving Elliott the ball against Michigan State. Elliott voiced his frustration and I expect for put the ball in his hands at least 20 times this game.
Ohio State has the better offense no mistake about it. They have the better QB, better RB, and better receivers. There is no argument there in my opinion. On defense, both teams have studs. Statistically, both defenses are very equal. Also, both teams have losses to Michigan State so I'm going to leave throw that game out the window.
On the road this season, Ohio State is running for 7 yards a carry and 299 yards a game. Their run defense on the road is only allowing 2.8 yards a carry. The Wolverines run defense is stout also at home as they only give up 71 yards a game. Something has to give and I strongly feel like the Buckeyes still have too many weapons and the ability to add wrinkles into the offense. The Wolverines defensive line is thin up front with the injuries to Ojemudia and Glasgow. The Hoosiers ran all over them two weeks ago. Penn State should have also but they were running some high school jet sweeps all game long.
There is a lot of pressure on Michigan in my opinion for this game. I feel like all of the pressure is off of Ohio State. They have nothing to lose as they now have a loss. I also think this team is mature enough to soak up last week's loss and be focused for this game. Take Ohio State.
Play on Game #720 Phoenix Suns (Friday, 9:35 PM EST)
Golden State is still undefeated at 16-0. The pressure mounts for them and they will receive the best effort from teams from here on out as they try to be the team to knock them off. Playing on the road is always tougher, even for Golden State. Phoenix is a team that can matchup with the Warriors. Knight and Bledsoe in the backcourt can keep pace with Curry and Thompson.
Last year when Golden State traveled to Phoenix, they were only a 5.5 point favorite. Now they are laying a few extra points and I think that there is value in this game as Phoenix is an improved team in my opinion from last year.
The Suns have lost three straight games, two of them by 6 points. They have lost two straight home games, both by six points. I think that this is a game that they will give their all to come away with the cover. The home team is 8-3 ATS the last 11 meetings and Phoenix is 4-1 ATS the last 5 home meetings against the Warriors. Take Phoenix with the points at home.
Play on Game #135 Tulsa Hurricane (Friday, 3:30 PM EST)
Tulsa needs this game to become bowl eligible under first year coach Montgomery. Tulane at 3-8 is a dead dog just waiting for their season to end. So Tulsa has a big motivational edge here. Tulsa has won 9 of the last 10 meetings dating back to 2005. They have won ALL 9 of these games by at least seven points with an average final score of 39-14.
Tulsa is averaging 511 yards a game of offense. Tulane is only averaging 297 yards a game. Tulane is getting outgained by 115 yards a game. Tulsa is getting outgained by 22 yards.
QB comparison: Evans for Tulsa is completing 63.3% of his passes for 8.8 yards an attempt with a 149 QB rating. Lee for Tulane is only completing 51.8% for 5.9 yards per attempt with a 109 QB rating.
Coming off an ATS loss this season, Tulsa is 3-0-1 ATS. Tulsa is 5-0 ATS on the road this season. Tulane has only scored more than 14 points three times this season. They have given up 31+ points in eight games. Tulane is 2-6 ATS their last 8 games as a home underdog. Take Tulsa to get the cover.
Play on Game #118 Nebraska Cornhuskers (Friday, 3:30 PM EST)
Iowa is undefeated and the pressure is on as these undefeated teams are now dropping like flies over the last few weeks (Baylor, Oklahoma State, Ohio State, Houston). Iowa is locked in a spot for the BIG 10 Championship game. Nebraska is playing with a week of rest, are 2-0 this month, and need this win to become bowl eligible. While Nebraska has only 5 wins on the season, four of their losses have come by 3 points or less.
Nebraska has outgained their last 5 opponents which is another positive for this game. Nebraska is 2-0 ATS as a homedog this season. I smell an upset brewing this Friday in Lincoln. The underdog is 4-1 ATS the last 5 meetings.
Play on Game #127 Western Michigan (Friday, 12:00 PM EST)
Western Michigan is coming off two losses and non-covers. This presents value in today's game against a Toledo team that is coming off their biggest win of the season knocking off Bowling Green on the road. I will note that Northern Illinois beat a then undefeated Toledo team on November 3rd, 32-27. They did that with a rFr quarterback leading the way in the 2nd half. I think that Western Michigan has a more talented roster on both sides of the ball than Northern Illinois and they will give Toledo a run for their money on Friday. The underdog is 8-1 ATS the last nine meetings and the road team is 6-2 ATS the last eight meetings. Last year this game went into overtime with Toledo winning 20-19 and the yardage was about equal at 444-450. Terrell was 30-for-37 for 370 passing yards. I look for him to break out of his funk in this game. Take Western Michigan with the points.
Play on Game #108 Dallas Cowboys (Thursday, 4:30 PM EST)
This line looks fishy to me with an undefeated Carolina team playing a 3-7 team of Dallas and the line being close to a 'pick em'.
Dallas is as healthy as they have been all season. Romo came back last week and they outgained Miami by 176 yards. Before Romo came back, Dallas lost 13-12 at home to Seattle. If not for settling for field goals, they could have won that game. (Dez Bryant was also not back yet). They lost in overtime to Philly at home. (Again, they were without Romo and Dez Bryant was in just his first game back). Now for this game, Bryant will be playing in his 4th game back and Romo will be playing his first home game since getting injured earlier in the season.
While Carolina is undefeated, they are only outgaining opponents by 32 yards a game. Through all the injuries, Dallas is still outgaining opponents by 9 yards a game. You have to realize this average was with Weeden and Cassell playing quarterback, with Dez injured, and with Hardy, McClain, and Gregory not playing a few games.
On the road, Carolina is only averaging 298 yards a game and are getting outgained by 15 yards a game.
Dallas has won the last five meetings dating back to 2005.
Carolina's defensive end Wes Horton just got suspended. Amini Silatolu tore his ACL and was playing well for Carolina at left guard. Norwell might be back but I'm not sure if he will be 100%, especially with this game being played on a short week.
Play on Game #767 Vanderbilt (Friday, 10:00 PM EST)
Vanderbilt is off to the races with a 5-0 start to the season. Kansas has already folded under pressure losing to Michigan State this season.
Vanderbilt has three seven footers that will all play this game. Damian Jones can be the best player on the court. Kornet has put muscle on in the off season and can shoot the three ball. Henderson comes off the bench and is another big body. Vanderbilt has as many good three point shooters that I have seen a long time. Fisher-Davis, LaChance, and Baldwin all return from last year. They add in a Cornell transfer that can shoot the three along with Camron Justice who head coach Kevin Stallings says is the 2nd best shooter they have ever recruited other than John Jenkins. Also Roberson can shoot the three ball but is also very active on the glass.
Kansas is at a disadvantage down low. Cheick Diallo who was the #7 recruit in the nation last year, is still ineligible. This supposed to have been the Jayhawks starting center. Now their biggest guys on the court will be 6'8" and 6'9".
Through five games, Vandy is holding opponents to 19% from the three point line and 58.8 ppg. The starters have not had to log major minutes either through the first two games as they have only played 53% of the game. Kansas does not have as much depth as Vanderbilt. While Kansas is ranked higher currently, that does not make them the better team. Vanderbilt in my opinion is the better team and it will show after this game. Take Vanderbilt.
Play on Game #714 Milwaukee Bucks (Wednesday,8:05 PM EST )
The Bucks were a bit banged up to start the season. O.J. Mayo and Michael Carter-Williams were sidelined with injuries in the backcourt. They are both back healthy. Since Carter-Williams return, the Bucks are 2-0 at home with a win against LeBron and the Cavs and then they beat Detroit by 21. Mayo is now in his third game back and is another option off the bench other than Bayless and Vasquez. Also, Jabari Parker is playing tonight. Parker has now scored double digits in his last 4 games and has played an average of 27 minutes a game.
Sacramento has now been on the road for a week. This is their fifth road game in eight nights. They have gone 1-3 SU on the trip so far. The losses have come by 5, 6, and 7 points. I feel this team is just ready to get back home to play the T'Wolves on Friday, especially after losing in overtime to Charlotte on Monday.
Milwaukee has started to push the pace with their offense with Carter-Williams. Head coach Jason Kidd wants them to play much faster and Williams is a guard that can do that. The Kings should be a bit tired for this game and I think that fatigue could be a factor. Demarcus Cousins is not expected to play for Sacramento as he is dealing with a lower back strain and a sore thigh.His 28 ppg/ 11 rpg/ 1.5 blocks a game will be missed.
Play on Game #519 Valparaiso (Tuesday,9:00 PM EST)
I am 3-0 this season covering Valpo. They are getting points again tonight at Oregon State and they should be comfortable playing on the road here, as they just played Sunday at Oregon so I don't think the altitude or crowd noise will be a factor. Also with this week being Thanksgiving, I imagine that the gym will not be filled up as the kids are going home to their families for the holiday.
Oregon State comes into this game 4-0. They beat Iona by 20 at home, but Valpo beat Iona by 25 at home also. Oregon State is trying to switch their offense up to more of an up-tempo and I don't think this is a good matchup for them as Valpo is a defensive minded team.
Valpo lost by 6 to Oregon on Sunday. They held Oregon to 45% from the floor. Oregon State does not have the shooters that Oregon does other than Gary Payton II.
Oregon State's starting center Daniel Gomis is out with an injury. So is their senior forward that comes off the bench, Jarmal Reid. Valpo has depth and can use it to their advantage.
I look for a close game and feel at this point that Valpo is battle tested after playing Oregon on Sunday. Oregon State's tough opponent so far has been Iona.
Wofford went to the NCAA tourney last year and lost by three points to Arkansas. This year, they return three starters from that team and five upperclassmen total. They also bring a freshman in, Fletcher Magee, who is leading the team with 14.7 ppg. Wofford is only turning the ball over 11 times a game through their first three games. They shoot 71% from the foul line. Wofford played North Carolina last week and lost by 20, but they were only down by five at the half. Carolina's size down low was too much.
Columbia won 13 games last year only. They only won five in the Ivy conference play. While they appear to be a bit improved this year, they are not eight points better than a defensive minded Wofford team. Wofford tends to play a grind it out type of game which also makes these points much more attractive. This is too many points for a mid-tier Ivy league team to be laying. Take Wofford.
Play on Game #475 Buffalo Bills (Monday, 8:30 PM EST)
Rex Ryan has been known for giving all the Patriots they can handle. When Ryan was coaching for the Jets, the last four New England/ NY Jets game were decided by three points or less. The Jets ran the ball easily on New England last year. Buffalo is now healthy with McCoy and Williams in the backfield and also Sammy Watkins at receiver. They will be looking for revenge after a 40-32 loss in Week 2 earlier this season.
New England is also banged up with injuries. Julian Edelman who was leading the team in receptions, is out. Dion Lewis, who was averaging 4.8 yards a carry is out. Lewis was also reliable out of the backfield for Brady catching 36 passes. (Edelman and Lewis have 97(38%) of Brady's 251 completions. Also their starting linebacker Jamie Collins who is leading the team in tackles is expected to miss. Collins is also second on the team with 4.5 sacks. The Patriots offensive line is also hurting as it's possible they might be down three starters on the line for tonight.
Buffalo is averaging 142 rushing yards a game which is #2 in the NFL. The 4.8 yards per rush is also #2 in the NFL. I look for them to run the ball and to control the clock and keep the ball out of Brady's hands. Buffalo also has a talented defense. Ryan likes to blitz. The Patriots offensive line is inexperienced. I look for Brady to be under pressure.
The Bills are 3-1 SU on the road this season. The one loss was by 3 points only. I see this one coming down the wire. Take the Bills with the points.
Play on Game #701 Orlando Magic (Monday, 7:05 PM EST)
I like Orlando here with the points. They are coming off a loss to Sacramento as maybe they were looking ahead to this game.
Orlando center, Nikola Vucevic, is back on the court and 100% healthy. He will have a big advantage in the paint as Mozgov is injured for the Cavs. Also Mo Williams is expected to miss this game for Cleveland and he is instant offense.
Orlando has been a 8 and 9 point dog three times this season. They are 3-0 ATS in these games with covers against the Thunder, Bulls, and Rockets. Cleveland is 1-3 ATS this season as a home favorite of 8 or more points. The cover was against the Bucks last week by that was a revenge game for LeBron so the team had motivation.
I don't see any motivation for Cleveland tonight as they are coming off a win against the Atlanta Hawks who are their 'real' competition in the East. Take Orlando to get the cover.
Play on Game #744 Vanderbilt (Monday, 2:30 PM EST)
I look for a very focused effort from Vanderbilt to open up this tournament as they survived a scare against Stony Brook last week in overtime. Stony Brook is actually a very good team but still Vandy should have taken them more serious. Today they are playing a Saint John's team that is in serious rebuilding mode.
Vandy is shooting 48.4% from the floor through three games. They have multiple guys that can all shoot the three making this team very dangerous. They also have a big guy in Damian Jones that will be in the NBA next year.
Saint John's lost all five starters from last season. They have nine new players and a whole new coaching staff this season. Mullin's expected starting point guard didn't make the team because of eligibility issue. His other guard Malik Ellison didn't play last game against Rutgers and did not practice Saturday or Sunday. Also, JC transfer Darien Williams got injured against Rutgers and hasn't practiced the last two days. This is a Saint John' team that is trying to replace 96% of the scoring, 92% of their rebounding, and 98% of their assist. It's going to take time and this team is lacking talent.
While Saint John's is 3-0 on the season, they only beat Rutgers by 2 at home and beat Wagner by 9 at home also. Saint John's was down 16 points at the half against Rutgers. This is still a team that is going to struggle to put the ball in a basket as they are only averaging 67 ppg and shooting only 42.2% from the floor. Also, they are only shooting 63.6% from the foul line.
Expectations are high for Vanderbilt this season. They are a dangerous team that can score at every position. Kevin Stallings also has a huge coaching edge in this game. As I mentioned earlier, I really think the Commodores 'scare' against Stony Brook will wake them up for this game. Look for a win of 20+ points.
Play on Game #531 Butler Bulldogs (Sunday, 7:30 PM EST)
Both teams have had an easy trip to this championship game. Butler and Miami are both very experienced with good backcourts and solid play in the frontcourt.
I have made it a rule of thumb to always take a closer look at Butler when they are getting points. The line opened at +3 and has been bet up to +4 or +4.5.
Right now the Bulldogs have 7 double digit scorers. They have veterans in Dunham, Chrabascz, and Jones. New to the rotation is NC State Transfer Tyler Lewis who is averaging 14pts and has recorded 13 assist from the PG position. Sophomores Wideman /Martin/Davis are combining for 24 ppg. Hoosier Transfer Austin Etherington rounds off the 7 DD scorers. This team is locked and loaded and I expect them to win the Big East this season.
I have watched Miami also, but they have yet to been tested. There is a lot of pressure on their guards, Rodriguez and McClellan in this game. If one of them goes cold, which I feel will happen, they will be in trouble. We don't need Butler to win the game though as they are getting points. Take Butler to get the cover.
Valpo is 5-0 this season and we are 2-0 when playing on them. This is a very good team as I have mentioned before. Valpo is polished on the offensive end, but they also play very good defense, something that Oregon does not do. While Oregon has talent and is a Top 25 team, I think they are a bit overvalued in this game. When Oregon played against Baylor last week, they won by seven points but only shot 43% from the floor. If Baylor had some better shooters, they would have beaten Oregon. Through five games, Valpo is holding teams to 35.8% shooting from the floor and 59 ppg. They are better on the boards than Oregon as they are outrebounding teams by 9 boards a game while Oregon is only outrebounding their opponents by 1 board a game. Valpo does a good job at blocking out as they are 7th in the nation only giving up 4.7 offensive rebounds a game. Also, Valpo is shooting 73.6% from the foul line while Oregon is only shooting 63%. Take Valpo with the points to get the cover.
Play on Game #455 Dallas Cowboys (Sunday, 1:00 PM EST)
Dallas has now lost seven straight games. I am 5-0 covering Dallas games this year whether that was playing on/against them or taking the game over. I have a good feel on this team.
Finally all the pieces are back for this team. Tony Romo is back, Dez Bryant will be playing his third game back. McFadden is running the ball with authority. The defense is healthy also. This is the game the Cowboys unite and get the win.
Even with all the injuries for the Cowboys, they are still only averaging 12 yards less a game than Miami. I will note that the Cowboys opened up the season going 2-0 before the injury bug started.
The Dolphins have a defense that is 51 yards worse a game than Dallas. The Miami offense, a fully healthy Miami offense I might add, has been outgained in seven of their nine games this year. While they won at Philly last week, they still got outgained by 147 yards which is another red flag.
I think the sense of urgency will be there for Dallas this game. They are only two games back of the Giants for the division. Dallas has Carolina on deck next week. They know they need this game first and foremost and another slip-up is not possible.
Dallas is a good covering team against the AFC as they are 8-1 ATS their last nine road games against the AFC.
As far as talent goes, Dallas is better at all the skill positions. They have more playmakers on defense also in my opinion. While my analysis might not be as detailed as usual, my gut instinct is strong for this game and I'm betting Dallas ends their seven game skid. Take Dallas.
Play on Game #370 Oklahoma State (Saturday, 7:00 PM EST)
Baylor's perfect season just went down the drain last week vs. Oklahoma. Seth Russell getting injured has proved to be too much for the Baylor Bears to overcome now with freshman QB Stidham.
This is a series where the home team has dominated going 5-0 SU the last five. Oklahoma State beat Baylor in 2013 as a eight point homedog, 49-17, when Baylor was ranked #3 in the nation. Last year, Baylor got their revenge on Oklahoma State winning 49-28. Now it's time for Oklahoma State to get their revenge back and for this home team winning trend to continue.
Baylor's offense is averaging 619 yards on the season, but only 474 yards their last three games. Much of that is due to the fact they have a freshman quarterback. They are also not converting on third downs as frequently as when Russell was the QB. We should see some drives stall out in this game.
Dating back to 2005, Oklahoma State is 7-3 in this series straight up. At home their last five meetings, the Cowboys have scored 49, 59, 55, 34, and 66 points. Baylor has not topped 24 points the last five meetings when playing at Oklahoma State.
Oklahoma State beat a previously unbeaten team of TCU, 49-29, two weeks ago. Before that, the team showed maturity by falling behind at Texas Tech only to come back and win. Then they did the same thing last week at Iowa State. Look for the Oklahoma State Cowboys to remain as the lone undefeated team in the BIG 12 after this one is over with.
Play on Game #372 Ohio State (Saturday, 3:30 PM EST)
Everyone wants to talk about how Ohio State hasn't played anyone. Well, here is their chance to have a coming out party and silence the critics. I like J.T. Barrett as quarterback. He makes this offense go. When the offense goes, the Buckeyes cover spreads.
While Michigan State carries the name 'Michigan State', this is the worst Spartan team I have seen in a while. To make it worse, their quarterback Connor Cook is nursing a shoulder injury and might be one hit away from being on the sidelines, not to mention the fact this kid is an NFL draft pick, I can't see him wanting to risk further injury. Even if Cook is fine and 100%, I still like the Buckeyes to roll here. Now if Cook does get hurt, then that's an added bonus for us.
Michigan State is the worst one loss team in the nation in my opinion. The fact that they are 3-7 ATS speaks somewhat of that. The other fact is that they have gotten outgained in their last two games and been outgained in 50% of their games overall this season.
Now look at Ohio State on the other hand. The Buckeyes have outgained every opponent this season and after that scare against Indiana, they have won by 28, 42, 14, and 25. While the offense might not be putting up 50+ a game, that defense is biting only giving up 13.8 ppg on the season.
This game is being played at Ohio State. I mentioned the Buckeyes defense above, but it is stronger at home where they only give up 12.8 ppg. Their pass defense is lock down as opposing quarterbacks to complete 48% of their passes for 5 yards an attempt. On the other hand, Michigan State has not been impressive on the road. They lost 39-38 to Nebraska, . The Spartans secondary is just not up to par. The 'no-fly zone' is getting bombed on, especially on the road as quarterbacks are completing 61.2% of their passes for 7.9 yards per attempt.
Michigan State got outgained last week at home vs. Maryland 289-262. The 262 yards that Maryland allowed was 150 yards less than they have allowed all season long. At the end of the day, this is just not the same Michigan State team and this is Urban Meyer's chance to make a statement. Look for him to do it. Ohio State rolls.
While LSU is coming off back-to-back losses, this is a game they can win or at least get the cover. Ole Miss is coming off a week of rest, but I feel the week of rest does this team no good considering they just got demoralized losing to Arkansas as a double digit home favorite when Bielema decided to go for the 2 pt. conversion in overtime. LSU's last two losses have come against Alabama who is playing great football and against Arkansas who is playing their best ball of the season. Both Alabama and Arkansas have offenses that thrive off the running game. Ole Miss does not have that. Ole Miss likes to run the spread offense and LSU's secondary can matchup with the Ole Miss receivers, much like Florida did earlier this season.
LSU is a team that thrives on the run. Fournette should have a break out game after struggling against Bama and Arkansas.
Ole Miss beat Alabama earlier this season and I thought this team might be the real deal. Since then, they have lost to Florida, Memphis, and Arkansas and appear to lack the ability to beat a quality team. Before the 53-52 game against Arkansas, this Ole Miss offense had stalled out in SEC play only scoring 27, 23, 27, and 10 points.
The underdog has ruled this series as of late. The underdog is 14-3 ATS the last 17 meetings and the road team is 14-4 ATS the last 18 meetings. Looking at the past nine meetings, five of the nine games have been decided by 3 points or less. The last two years it has been a field goal game. Last year LSU won 10-7 despite turning the ball over four times. Take the points here with LSU.
Play on Game #376 Penn State (Saturday, 12:00 PM EST)
Penn State comes into this game off a bye week and looking for revenge from last year's 18-13 loss. Before last year, Penn State had won the last four meetings, so this is a series they have owned in the past and will be looking to reclaim control of.
Penn State is a perfect 6-0 SU at home this season. Sure, this will be their toughest test yet, but this is one they can stand up to, led by their defense. When comparing home/away stats, Penn State has clear edges. One being in defense as they only are giving up 250 yards a game at home; 2.8 yards a carry for 98 yards a game and 5.0 yards per pass attempt for only a 52% completion rate. Michigan's defense is much worse on the road as they are giving up 357 yards a game, 152 yards rushing a game for 4 yards a carry and 205 yards a game passing.
Michigan escaped with a 48-41 win last week in 2 OT at Indiana, a game where the Hoosiers ran for 307 yards against Michigan for 5.6 yards a carry. That is not a good sign for Michigan laying points this Saturday against a well rested Penn State team. This is now Michigan's third road game in four weeks. Three weeks ago they were lucky to beat Minnesota 29-26 as Minnesota outgained them by 156 yards.
Quarterback play: Hackenberg is the far better quarterback over Rudock in my opinion. He has a 13 TD/ 3 INT mark this season. While his stats are not overly impressive, in crunch time, I'd rather have him over Rudock any day of the week. Rudock has thrown at least one interception in every road game this season. Hackenberg has a 9 TD/ 1 INT at home this season. This game has 'upset' written all over it. Take Penn State with the points.
Play on Game #354 Virginia Tech Hokies (Saturday, 12:00 PM EST)
This is Head Coach Frank Beamer's last home game in Blacksburg. He has coached here for 29 years. The players will be playing with emotion and the home crowd will be huge for us also in this game. Add in the fact that Virginia Tech is playing with two extra days rest and this sets the stage for us on Saturday afternoon, coupled with the fact that Virginia Tech needs this win to become bowl eligible.
The Hokies senior quarterback Michael Brewer got injured in game one of the season against Ohio State. Before his injury, Virginia Tech was right in that game. They were leading 17-14 at halftime then Brewer got hurt. Brewer is back and the Hokies have won the stats in their last 5 games now. They are coming back home off back to back wins on the road.
The Hokies lost by 2 points at home to Duke and by 4 points at home to Pittsburgh in conference. They have the #7 pass defense in the nation and are only allowing opponents to convert on 33% of their third downs.
When these teams played two years ago, Virginia Tech was an 8 point home favorite and held North Carolina to 17 points which was 15 below their season average of 32 ppg. In fact, Virginia Tech has held the Tarheels to 107 and 50 yards below their season average the last two meetings. The Hokies have a solid defensive line along with an experienced secondary.
North Carolina is coming off a pair of 66 and 59 point outings at home. They are not as impressive on the road though. In ACC, they won both games by 7 points only to a bad Georgia Tech team (Tarheels were losing much of that game) and won by 7 at Pittsburgh in a game that PIttsburgh dominated the time of possession 35:15 to 24:45.
Virginia Tech is the fresher team also as they had a bye week before playing Georgia Tech last week. North Carolina is playing their 6th consecutive game and their run defense is getting gashed for 220 yards a game on the ground. Take the points with Virginia Tech.
Play on Game #519 Chicago Bulls (Friday, 10:35 PM EST)
Derrick Rose is a game time decision. With or without Rose, I like the Bulls here. The Bulls beat Phoenix on Wednesday night 103-97 without Rose so I'm confident they can cover this game with or without him.
Golden State is off a win last night against the Clippers. It wasn't just a regular win. The Warriors had to battle back from being 23 points down to get the win. The Warriors scored 70 points in the second half and shot 8-for-9 from the three point line in the 4th quarter. They should have a hard time getting up for this game after having to expend so much energy in that game.
This is a lot of points for the Bulls to be getting. I know they are playing the defending champs who never lose, but this is only the second time the Bulls have been an underdog all season long. The first time was on Wednesday and they covered.
Golden State has not covered in their last two home games. They beat Toronto by 5 points and had to go into overtime to beat the Nets. The lines are getting more and more inflated when the Warriors play at Oracle Arena. They are 3-4 ATS at home this season.
The Bulls beat Golden State last year in Oracle 113-111 in overtime.
The Bulls legs are fresh. Against Phoenix on Wednesday, they went 10 deep. Jimmy Butler logged 42 minutes, but nobody else played more than 27 minutes. Kirk Hinrich is also healthy now and he started at the point for Rose (6-for-7 from the floor with 6 assist and only 1 turnover). The Bulls held the Suns' high powered backcourt duo of Bledsoe and Brandon Knight to 35% shooting from the floor.
Look for a closer game tonight than expected. Take the Bulls with the points.
Play on Game #538 Michigan Wolverines (Friday, 9:00 PM EST)
Michigan is finally healthy and are undervalued in this spot. The team had many injuries last season. Now Walton is healthy and he can push the rock and slash to the basket. Caris Levert got injured also last year. This was a guy that was leading the team in every category before getting injured last year. These two guys are combining for 28.5 ppg/ 8 rpg/ 10 apg/ 4 spg through the first two games. Zak Irvin was inserted as the go-to guy last season. While his role is not as big this season, he can score when needed. Michigan has five guys that can all shoot the three pointer. Michigan is shooting 76.7% from the foul line through the first two games.
Xavier won their first two home games by 9 and 12 points. Neither win was very impressive. Xavier lost their best two players from last season. Dee Davis was their point guard that averaged 6 assist a game. He also had a 2.5:1 assist: turnover ratio. With the shot clock being shorter this season, I give the Wolverines a big edge in this game due to their advantage at the point guard position with Walton. Myles Davis is Xavier's new point guard and he is not as pure of a point guard as Dee Davis was, not can he shoot as good.
Xavier's backcourt is average at best. Michigan's backcourt is much better and also bigger. I will say down low this game is about equal but again, as the rules have changed this season, I like the guards of Michigan to get the cover for us at home. Michigan has a much deeper team than Xavier and I will also weigh this into our favor. Lay the points with Michigan.
Play on Game #511 Houston Rockets (Friday, 8:05 PM EST)
The Rockets found a way to come back and win their last game in overtime... Kevin McHale got fired... The Rockets have been ridiculed by every sports analyst on television.... This spells motivation to me.
Enter the Memphis Grizzlies who have also been a major disappointment this season. I am not going to put too much into their win against the Thunder on Tuesday night as the Thunder were without Durant. They beat Minnesota, but Minnesota is winless at home. Then they beat Portland but only by one point at home. These three wins don't impress me very much.
Memphis has trouble covering at home as they are usually a favorite and they struggle to make shots as they are 1-6 ATS their last 7 home games. At home this season, Memphis is only shooting 39.8% from the floor and are getting outscored by 5.4 ppg as their defense has not been able to hold up.
Houston held Portland to 39.8 shooting on Wednesday which is a positive as this was the first time they have held an opponent to less than 43% shooting this season.
Houston has been a favorite now in their last five games and now we have them in an underdog role which I also see as favorable to us. Also, in this series the underdog is 5-1 ATS the last 6 meetings. Take Houston with the points on Friday night.
Play on Game #562 Florida State (Friday, 2:30 PM EST)
It's time to hop on Florida State while the gettin' is good. I expect the Seminoles to be a NCAA Tourney team this year, no doubt. FSU returns all 5 starters from last season, then add in a 7'4" kid along with a 6'6" McDonalds All American along with a JUCO transfer that averaged 17 ppg last year. The Seminoles now have three seven footers on the team. While the seven footers are young and will not play much, if they want to go big, they can. FSU's biggest addition so far as been Dwayne Bacon, the McDonalds All-American. Through two games, he has scored 30 and 24 points. Xavier Rathan-Mayes is considered to still be the Seminoles best player. Mayes is a scorer also. He scored 30+ points three times last year. This year, he has more players around him that can score so there is not as much pressure on him. Overall, this team looks dangerous to me. They have opened up out the gate shooting 65% from the floor in their first two games, including 46.5% from the three point line.
Hofstra has opened up the season with a couple of wins at home against Canisius and some team called Molloy. They were losing at halftime against Canisius. Hofstra has a decent starting five but their bench is nothing. They also don't like to play defense. In what is expected to be a high scoring game, Florida State will run away as they have the better rotation along with the better defense.
In Hofstra's last 10 losses of last season, they gave up 84.2 ppg. Also last season, opponents shot 48.8% against them on two point attempts.
Hostra will try to hang around for a little bit. At the end of the day, their lack of defense will kill them. This game is being played on a neutral in the Virgin Islands, thus giving us lower line than if Florida State was playing at home. I like them to win by double digits.
Boise brings back 5th year senior Anthony Drmic. Drmic is good enough to keep Boise State in the game himself. Mikey Thompson is another guard can score. Thompson has been coming off the bench, but he can start too. Boise got Lonnie Jackson, a transfer from Boston College, who can also shoot the three ball as he was a 38% three point shooter for Boston College his freshman and sophomore years. They have another kid that is 6'7" that can play the guard spot. Overall, they have height on the perimeter and all can shoot the three point shot, including their two big men, who are both versatile.
Arizona lost Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Stanley Johnson, Brandon Ashley, and point guard TJ Mc Connell. All that is left from last year's starting five is their center, Tarczewski . Parker Jackson-Cartwright is looking to lead the team, but he is simply not that good. Gabe York and Elliott Pitts are nothing but role players and will struggle as there is no starpower to leave them as the decoy. While Arizona did get Ryan Anderson from B.C and Tollefsen for San Francisco, this is still an overrated team to start the season in my opinion. It is going to take time for this team to mesh and playing against a quality Boise State team in the 3rd game of the season, I look for them to be in a dogfight.
Boise State played Wisconsin early last season. In 2013, they played Kentucky. Last year, they won at No.24 San Diego State and won at No.11 Creighton in 2012. We don't need the win though, just a cover. Take Boise State as they give Arizona a run for their money.
Play on Game #740 Tulsa Hurricane (Tuesday, 8:00 PM EST)
Tulsa has their best team in a long time this season. Tulsa won 23 games last season and finished 2nd in the AAC. One notable win was against UConn who had won the Championship in 2013. Tulsa was on the bubble, but didn't make the NCAA tourney which sets the stage for this game against Wichita. This team will be playing with a chip on their shoulder and returns all five starters this season and there are seven seniors on the roster total giving them tons of experience and continuity.
These two teams have played annually for the past five seasons now. Wichita has won all five meetings. This is big time revenge for the seniors of Tulsa. This is their best team by far and this is a game they want to make a statement and to put a quality win on their resume for the selection committee. The seniors haven't beaten Wichita in their career and they will be leaving it all on the court tonight.
Wichita State lost two starters from last season. Tekele Cotton won the Missouri Valley Defensive Player of the Year award twice. They also lost Darius Carter who was their only consistent scorer in the post.
Fred Vanvleet is Wichita State's point guard is nursing an injury. He is expected to play, but I have to question his quickness and how effective he will be against the speedy guards of Tulsa. I am betting on Tulsa tonight as if Vanvleet is fully healthy, however it will be an added bonus if he is not 100%.
Play on Game #723 Oklahoma Sooners (Tuesday, 5:00 PM EST)
Memphis might be somewhat decent come conference play, but they are overmatched in this game. Oklahoma is loaded this season and expectations are high for the team and I am a believer. The Sooners bring back four starters (3 seniors and 1 junior), including BIG 12 Player of the Year Buddy Hield. This will be a motivated team after losing to Michigan State in the regional's last year. The Sooners lost only TaShawn Thomas who was their power forward.
This is Oklahoma's first real game of the season, but they looked dominant in two exhibition games this year and were able to work in some of their new big guys in the rotation.
Memphis has eight freshmen on the team. They will be playing four freshmen. They don't have enough shooters to compete in this game. Memphis went 3-for-18 from the three point line against Southern Miss in their first game. Southern Miss is a bad defensive team I will add and Oklahoma will be able to slow them down on the perimeter also. Memphis best scorer is Goodwin down low but Oklahoma has an answer with Spangler. Memphis doesn't have an answer for Hield or Cousins, not to mention Jordan Woodward who has a 2:1 assist; turnover ratio for his career. Lay it with Oklahoma.
Play on Game #717 Valparaiso (Tuesday, 10:00 AM EST)
We cashed on Sunday with Valpo over Iona. I had said that this team is loaded and they proved it. Valpo held Iona to 29% shooting from the floor and were able to use a strong 8 man rotation. Not only is their starting the best in their conference, this is a team that has plenty of depth so they can match-up with opposing teams with different lineups. Shane Hammink is a LSU transfer that has stepped in with 13 ppg in only 17 minutes a game. Peters and Fernandez down low are a force to be reckoned with. Fernandez has 8 blocks through the first two games. Overall, this is a team in my opinion that is Sweet 16 material and they appear to be in mid-season form out the gate.
Rhode Island is a team that has high expectations this season after winning 23 games last season. The problem is that their best player and NBA prospect, E.C. Matthews, is out for the season with an injury. This is a huge blow to the team as Matthews averaged 16.9 ppg last season. This is their guy to go to down the stretch. While Rhode Island might adjust as the season goes along, trying to replace him in the lineup is virtually impossible this early in the season. Also the fact that they lost their 'tough' guy from down low last season, Biruta, and this Rhode Island will struggle against a tougher Valpo team.
Rhode Island also struggles to shoot the three pointer. They shot only 30% last season (12 in the A-10) and were 11th in the conference shooting only 65% from the foul line. In their first game of this season, they shot only 41% from the foul line and were only 4-for-13 from the three point line and that works in our favor very well for us as more fouls are being called this season.
Rhode Island lost at home last year to Davidson and VCU. They still are having trouble getting over the hump to beat quality teams. Without their NBA prospect coupled with the fact that they can't shoot free throws, I see Valpo getting the win on Tuesday morning. Take Valpo.
Play on Game #506 Houston Rockets (Monday, 8:05 PM EST)
Boston just won last night at Oklahoma City 100-85. Now they have to play on a back to back set on the road and to make it worse, this is their 5th game in 7 nights. The Thunder were without Durant and Westbrook went 5-for-20 so that win did not at all surprise me.
For Houston, this is a team that is loaded with talent, and I think we all know that. The problem is they haven't put it all together yet. They are coming off three consecutive losses, which is exactly what happened at the beginning of the season before they reeled off 4 straight wins. Playing against a tired Boston team, Houston can use their fresh legs and also a fresh Dwight Howard on their way to a win and a cover. Houston has the night off tomorrow so they will utilize Howard to the max. Also, Terrance Jones is back in the lineup which gives them more size and athleticism.
The Rockets starters shot 4-for-20 from the three point line in their last game. I expect a bounce back shooting performance here.
Houston has won the last four matchups, all by 6 points or more. In the Rockets last four home games against the Celtics, they are 4-0 SU and ATS winning by 14, 24, 12, and 16. Houston was a seven point home favorite last year and beat the Celtics 104-90. There is plenty of value in this game with the home team, especially with Boston being tired playing their 5th game in seven nights. Lay it with Houston.
Play on Game #528 George Washington (Monday, 7:30 PM EST)
This game is being played on George Washington's home court which I feel is a big advantage this early in the season. This game is important to both teams naturally, but I feel like the motivation is more there for George Washington. This is a revenge game for G.W. after losing last year 59-42 to Virginia's home court as a 12.5 point road dog. George Washington actually had a 4 point lead at the half, before struggling in the 2nd half. I believe by this game being played on their home court and with one more year of experience under their belt, they will keep this one close and not let it get away from them.
Last year's game: Justin Anderson for the Cavs led the team with 18 points. He is gone this year. Two of Virginia's four losses last season came when Anderson was out with an injury. He was a key component to the team. Anderson and Darion Atkins had 19 of the team's 38 rebounds, including 8 of Virginia's 13 offensive rebounds. Atkins, the ACC defensive player of the year, is gone this year also.
George Washington has size down low. They got Wake Forest transfer Tyler Cavanaugh (who played against Virginia in 2013-2014). Cavanaugh grabbed 17 rebounds in George Washington's opening night win along with 15 points. Their other big man, Kevin Larsen poured in 24 points while grabbing 11 boards. These two guys can bang down low with Virginia. They have a 6'6" senior shooting guard, a nice point guard, a graduate transfer coming off the bench that can shoot the three, then a stretch small forward in Yuta Watanabe who can step outside and shoot the three ball also.
George Washington is 27-3 at home their last 30 games dating back to 2013. One of those three losses came by only two points to Davidson last year.
I expect Virginia to drop off a bit this year. The loss of Anderson hurts their scoring and the loss of Atkins hurts their defense. George Washington is a defensive minded team that likes to play a style similar to Virginia. In what's expected to be a game played in the lower 60's, the underdog becomes more valuable in my opinion as well. Take the points with George Washington on Monday night.
Detroit is finishing up a six game road trip on the West Coast. After starting out 2-0 with wins over Phoenix and Portland, they then lost to Golden State and Sacramento before playing the Clippers last night. This sets the stage for tonight as this is their 5th road game in eight nights. Detroit has a home game on Tuesday night and I think they will just be ready to get back home to play Lebron James and the Cavs.
The Lakers are coming off a five game road trip where they went 1-4 which was expected as they were an underdog in all five games. Now they are back home and were able to get some rest on Saturday. Looking at the Lakers 5 game road trip, they beat Brooklyn and were competitive in their other 4 games, losing by 2, 4, 8, and 13 points. The thirteen point loss was against the Heat but this was a close game until the 4th quarter. They played Orlando close also and gave the Knicks a run for their money as well. My point being is this is a team that is on the verge of a win. What a better time than now against a tired Detroit team that has probably been partying a bit too much out on the West Coast.
Historically, the Lakers own Detroit. They are 4-0 ATS the last four meetings. They have beaten Detroit head up nine of the last 10 meetings. They are 5-0 SU the last 5 meetings in L.A. winning by 8, 15, 29, 25, and 13 points.
This is a better Detroit team and a different Lakers team, but the line has been adjusted. I will note that the Lakers were a 3.5 point home dog last year against the Pistons and won 93-85. Then in 2013, they were a 2 point home dog and won the game 114-99, so this is a spot that is favorable for them.
The Lakers have a road game against Phoenix tomorrow night. They know they need this win.
This line is a steal for being as low as it is. the Seahawks are only 2-5-1 ATS this season so the linesmakers have adjusted a bit coupled with the fact that Arizona in first place in the NFC West. That leads us to this favorable spot on Sunday night as the Seahawks will be playing with extra motivation as this game is a 'must win' for the team to pull within a game of Arizona in the division.
Seattle is 15-2 SU in their last 17 home games. Of those 15 wins, ALL 15 of them have come by 3 points or more. Thirteen of the fifteen have come by 6 or more points. Eleven of the fifteen have come by 10 or more points.
Seattle had fought through some injuries, etc. in the beginning of the season. They are healthier now with 'Beast Mode' in full attack. Also getting Tackle Russell Okung back on the line is a big plus for the team. Seattle also activated receiver Paul Richardson and head coach Carroll says, 'We're going to work in right in'. Richardson had chemistry with Russell Wilson towards the end of the season and is a guy that is elusive and gets a ton of yards after the catch. This is now a very respectable group of receiver with Jimmy Graham at tight end.
Seattle is coming off a bye week, a much needed bye week I might add. Last year they beat the Redskins 27-17 off a bye and in 2013 they beat New Orleans 34-7 off a bye.
Seattle has held Arizona to an average of only 228 yards a game over the last six meetings for an average of 11 points a game. While Carson Palmer does make their offense better, I think we see a Seattle defense rise to the occasion on Sunday.
Since losing to Carolina, Seattle outgained the 49ers by 246 yards then outgained the Cowboys by 103 yards, both on the road. Now back at home and off a bye week, I am looking for a statement game.
Arizona still lacks the ability to win against upper-tier defenses. They lost against the Rams and the Steelers who are in the Top 8 in the NFL in ppg allowed. They beat the Ravens, Browns, Bears, Saints and Lions who are all ranked 25 or lower in the NFL giving up at least 26.8 ppg which is 9.3 ppg more than what Seattle gives up a game at the least.
Lay the short price at home with Seattle on Sunday night.
Play on Game #736 Valparaiso (Sunday, 2:20 PM EST)
Iona returns English (20.1 ppg), Casimir (14.5 ppg), and Williams (13.3 ppg). That's all good against most teams, but not going against a loaded Valpo team. We can wait until Iona gets into conference play or when they are facing a team that is young and inexperienced. Valpo is loaded this season.
Iona lost their big man, Laury, and don't look to have a replacement immediately which is a huge factor for this game. Valpo returns all five starters from last year's 28 win team. The only player they lost on the roster was David Chadwick who only played in 12 games last season, scoring only 28 points. Their center, Fernandez, received another season of eligibility and the Crusaders will have a big edge down low. Valpo also got a 6'7" transfer from LSU that scored in double figures in all five of their exhibition games. Peters returns also and this is Valpo's best player. At 6'9", he averaged 16.8 ppg, 6,7 rpg, and hit 46.6% from the three point line.
This is a very good and deep Valpo team. I expect coach Bryce Drew to make the proper substitutions in this game and at the end of the day, it will be too much Valpo, especially down low in the paint. Iona doesn't like to play defense. Valpo can control the tempo, crash the boards, and play their brand of basketball.
Play on Game #256 Tennessee Titans (Sunday, 1:00 PM EST)
The Titans are coming off a win as an underdog, as I had the Titans last week against the Saints. Now they are coming back home looking for their first home win of the season. While the Titans have not won at home, three of their losses have come by 1, 2, and 3 points. This is a team that has competed at home and there is a newfound energy in the team after Whisenhunt got fired. Last week, the Titans made changes to the offensive line and that resulted in Mariota being protected as he did not get sacked. Also, they decided to give the ball to Andrews instead of juggling back and forth who was going to run the ball. On a side note though, rookie back David Cobb who has been injured might be ready to go on Sunday and he has fresh legs and that would be an added bonus.
The Titans pass defense is ranked #3 giving up 218 pass yards a game.
For Carolina, this game screams let-down after the big win revenge win against Green Bay, not to mention the overtime win against the Colts the week before that. Carolina is still undefeated on the season which means more pressure on the team. Also, Carolina this season has not yet outgained an opponent by more than 51 yards. That is a huge red flag for me for this team that is still undefeated. Carolina has also been camping at home for the last three weeks as they have not had to play a road game since October 18th.
When NFL teams are coming off three consecutive home games and then lay three more points on the road in a non-divisional game, they are only 3-19 ATS the last 22 times this angle has been applied covering only 13% of the time.
On the season, Cam Newton only has an 81.4 QB rating with a 14 TD/ 9 INT mark and only completing 53.7% of his passes. He will struggle heavily against this Titans pass defense that is strong and getting healthier. Mariota has a 101 QB rating with 13 TD/ 5 INT and is completing 65.2% of his passes.
While the Panthers are 2-0 ATS this year as a road favorite, they were 2-6 ATS their previous 8 as a road favorite. It's tough for a team to cover on the road continuously and also to stay undefeated.
Play on Game #260 Washington Redskins (Sunday, 1:00 PM EST)
I had the Redskins last week against the Patriots. They got in a hole early but actually held the Patriots to a respectable 27 points, the lowest point total for the Patriots this season. Some of the Patriots scores came on short field position. My point being is that this Redskins defense is still very respectable. New Orleans defense is not respectable by any means. The Saints are even worse on the road. I am going back with Washington this Sunday.
The Saints are getting outgained by 32 yards a game on the road. The Redskins are outgaining opponents by 56 yards a game at home. The Saints are giving up 29 ppg on the road. The Redskins are only giving up 19.8 at home. The Saints have been one of the NFL's worst road teams in recent years. The Saints are 4-13 SU in their last 17 non divisional road games. Playing against the NFC East on the road, they have given up an average of 32 ppg their last nine dating back to 2009.
New Orleans has three linebackers that are out for this game and cornerback Swann is out also. They are coming off a tough loss in overtime to the Titans which is also tough to overcome mentally.
While the Saints might have the better offense, the Redskins have an offense that can keep Drew Brees off the field. While DeSean Jackson did not make much noise against the Patriots last week, I expect him to have some explosive plays against a weak Saints secondary. The Saints also have some linebackers banged up and I see this Washington team using their ground and pound game to control the clock and in turn with this game at home.
Injuries: This is as healthy as Washington has been all season. DeSean Jackson made his debut last week against New England. His speed was not up to par last week, but it has been reported that he will be more effective this week, especially against the weaker cornerbacks of New Orleans. Cornerback Culliver was on a snap count last week against New England. He should be on the field more this Sunday also. DeAngelo Hall might play this Sunday also and of course this will be an added bonus if the Skins have him on the field. Also cornerback Breeland was on a snap count against the Patriots and should be close to a full go in this game. Linebacker Kerrigan was playing with a cast on his right hand and should have a smaller cast on this week to make it easier for him to play and make tackles. Third down back Chris Thompson played on a limited basis last week also. He should be healthier for this game also.
This is a different Washington team than we saw three or four weeks ago. I think it will be evident on Sunday.
Washington is 3-1 SU at home this year (3-0 SU last 3). They are 4-0 ATS the Saints the last 4 meetings and have a +74 yard net advantage over the Saints in the last seven meetings. Take Washington.
Play on Game #210 Stanford Cardinals (Saturday, 7:30 PM EST)
This is a series where revenge has a very significant meaning. Stanford beat Oregon in 2012 and 2013 then Oregon got their double revenge last year beating Stanford 45-16. That was a kill spot for Oregon and they had Mariota has quarterback and also had a much better defense that this year.
McCaffrey, Stanford's stud running back, only had one carry in the game last year vs. Oregon. He was not a factor last year. McCaffrey can very easily be the difference in this game as he has emerged as a legitimate Heisman candidate and Oregon can't stop the run or the pass. Another difference is that Oregon does not have Mariota anymore and Vernon Adams has not completed more than 58% of his passes in his 3 games since returning. Adams has also thrown 3 INT in his last two games.
As far as defense goes, Stanford prides their selves on defense where Oregon relies on outscoring teams. That won't work in this game. The problem with Oregon this season is their quarterback is not as polished in the past and their defense is the worst it has been in a long time and this is their worst team since 2006 in my opinion.
Stanford has the #1 defense in the PAC 12 only giving up 323 yards a game. Oregon has the worst defense giving up 468 yards a game, 145 more than Stanford. Stanford only allows 20 ppg while Oregon is giving up 37 ppg. While Oregon does average more yards than Stanford on offense, the ppg is close as Stanford scores 37 ppg while Oregon scores 42 ppg.
Stanford runs for 5.2 yards a carry and 227 yards a game. Oregon gives up 4.7 yards a carry and 170 yards a game on the ground. This sets the stage for Stanford's experienced offensive line and stud running back to pave the way.
Defensively, we have the better team by 17 ppg. On offense, we have the better quarterback with more experience and we have the better offensive line also. We also are playing this game at home where Stanford is 4-0 SU and ATS this season winning by an average score of 43-18. Oregon got outgained by 241 yards on the road vs. Arizona State so don't let that overtime win fool you. Also, Arizona State has under achieved this season.
Both teams have played Washington. Stanford outgained Washington by 247 yards while Oregon only outgained Washington by 57 yards.
Again, this is big time revenge in a heated rivalry. Lay the points now with Stanford while this line is in the single digits as I see them winning this one by double digits.
Play on Game #181 Arkansas (Saturday, 7:15 PM EST)
Let's talk about momentum. Arkansas has it. They are coming off a win in overtime against Ole Miss where they went for the 2 point conversion to win the game. They have now played in three overtime games this season having won two of them which also tells me that this team tends to play in closer games and has a fight to not give up and to win the game.
LSU just got beat up by Alabama, and I like to fade teams coming off games against Alabama as they are typically beat up emotionally and physically. Last year, LSU lost 20-13 against Alabama then had to face Arkansas who beat LSU 17-0. Arkansas held Fournette to 9 yards rushing.
Arkansas has only been outgained twice on the season with one of those games being to Alabama. They actually played Alabama very close as it was a 10-7 score heading into the 4th quarter.
Arkansas is 4-1 ATS their last 5 games overall. Arkansas is 4-1 ATS vs. the SEC this season. The one spread loss was against Texas AM in overtime. The lost by 7 which would give us a cover here. They also outgained Texas AM in that game. Arkansas is also better and healthier now than they were in that game vs. Texas AM. Arkansas is 7-1 ATS the last 8 meetings against LSU. LSU has won by 7 points or less in 4 of their last 6 wins against the Hogs. Two of the last 8 meetings have went into overtime.
Injuries: Arkansas's Kody Walker has given the Razorbacks another option other than Alex Collins. Receiver Jared Cornelius is back and has 8 catches in his last two games.
Against three ranked opponents this season, LSU won by 2 points against Miss State, won by 7 vs. Florida in a game they could had lost and Florida was starting a new QB, then lost last week to Alabama getting outgained by 252 yards. I will also note that LSU only outgained Western Kentucky by 69 yards a few weeks ago.
Arkansas now has 5 wins on the season. They need one more win to become bowl eligible. I look for them to give LSU all they can handle. Take Arkansas to get the cover.
Play on Game #180 Iowa State (Saturday, 3:30 PM EST)
Oklahoma State comes into this game undefeated. They just beat an undefeated TCU team. That was a HUGE win for the team. HUGE wins = HUGE letdowns in College Football in the right situation. Oklahoma State has a current undefeated Baylor team on deck. This is a huge sandwich/trap/ look ahead game for the Cowboys.
Oklahoma State got outgained by 207 yards against TCU which is a red flag for this game. TCU had 36 first downs to only 16 for Oklahoma State, another red flag. Oklahoma was only 2-for-11 on 3rd downs against TCU, which is another red flag. TCU's quarterback, T. Boykin, threw 4 INT and that was the difference in the game. TCU's defense is sub-par and they have not been a good road team all year long. So kudos to Oklahoma State on the win, but I think it is a bit misleading.
The week before the TCU game, Oklahoma State gave up 53 points to Texas Tech on the road. They were down 17-0 to begin the game, another red flag for going on the road here. Their other 3 road games they beat West Virginia by 7 in overtime (got outgained by 81 yards), beat Texas by 3, and beat Central Michigan by 11.
Iowa State has played a tough schedule make no mistake about it. This is a team that has faced some of the best teams in the nation. Iowa is undefeated, Toledo was undefeated, TCU has one loss, Baylor in undefeated, and Oklahoma has only one loss. So they are used to playing better competition.
Iowa State has played better ball at home. They beat Texas 24-0, outgaining them by 222 yards. They lost by 24 at home to TCU, but only got outgained by 160 yards, where TCU outgained Oklahoma State by 207 yards. They lost by 14 at home to Iowa who is undefeated also.
Changes have been made to the Iowa State team. One being firing their offensive coordinator and the other is inserting a new quarterback. Joel Lanning has only thrown 1 INT on the season while Sam Richardson who was the starter had thrown 8 INT to only 8 TD. Lanning is much more of a mobile quarterback. Iowa State has two receivers that are tall at 6'5" and 6'6" that I like in this matchup also. Mike Warren is a senior running back that is durable and can take anywhere from 25-32 carries a game.
Role reversal: Oklahoma State just won straight up as a homedog against an undefeated team and now are a road favorite against a Iowa State team that is playing with revenge. This is a strong angle that I have used over the years when the road favorite is laying less than 17 points and when they allow more than 16 ppg. This applies to Oklahoma State.
This is Iowa State's last home game of the season. Look for them to leave it all on the field while Oklahoma State gets caught looking ahead to Baylor and Oklahoma to end their season.
Injuries: Oklahoma State's senior defensive end, Jimmy Bean, is expected to miss this game. Bean has 5.5 sacks on the season and 25 tackles. Also, their senior middle linebacker is out for the season. Their starting two cornerbacks are listed as questionable as well.
Play on Game #172 Mississippi State (Saturday, 3:30 PM EST)
Alabama is coming off their biggest win of the season vs. LSU last week. It was a solid showing by the Tide, but a taxing one physically and emotionally. This Saturday they have to travel to face a Mississippi State team that has had this game circled on the calendar. The reason being is that Alabama gave the Bulldogs their first loss of the season last year. It was a big loss for Mississippi State as they were ranked #1 in the country at the time.
Mississippi State last played on Thursday night so they have had 2 extra days to rest and prepare. I feel that is very important when playing Alabama. The Bulldogs also have a respectable defense.
Offensively, these two teams matchup very evenly. State putting up 31.2 ppg while the Tide avg. 33.5. State averages 418 ypg on offense while the Tide avg. 422. Defensively, the Bulldogs give up only 17.8 ppg while the Tide are giving up 16.4 ppg. As far as yardage goes, Miss. State is giving up 98 yards more a game, but these numbers get a bit closer when looking at the home/away stats as Alabama has only a 60 yard a game better defense.
Another key stat that I think will come to our advantage is 3rd down conversions. On the road, Alabama is only converting 23% of their 3rd downs. Alabama has clearly struggled on the road to move the chains.
We faded Alabama a few weeks when they played Texas AM and lost the bet, but if it wasn't for three pick 6's by Allen for the Aggies, we would have seen a final score in favor of Texas AM.
Quarterbacks: Coker for Alabama is still interception prone. He has 11 TD to 7 INT on the season and I don't think he can win this game by more than a touchdown. Prescott for the Bulldogs is the best quarterback in the SEC and will be Alabama's biggest challenge of the season. Prescott has 18 TD/ 1 INT on the season and can also spread the field out and use his mobility to run the ball and to move the chains.
Last year Mississippi State lost 25-20 but they out played Alabama in my opinion as they outgained the Tide 428-355. They did this playing in Tuscaloosa ,Alabama. Now they are playing at home in Starkville where they are 12-1 SU their last 13 home games with the lone loss only being by 2 points to LSU earlier this season. This is an expanded stadium this season that added 16,00o seats with the Bulldogs trademark cowbells. I expect for the crowd noise to play a factor on Saturday afternoon as well.
Mississippi State is 4-0 ATS their last 4 tries as a homedog including a cover vs. LSU earlier this season. They lost the game by 2 points but had a chance to win it before missing a field goal as time expired. Take Mississippi State to get the cover.
Play on Game #128 Indiana Hoosiers (Saturday, 3:30 PM EST)
This is Indiana's last home game. They have already played two undefeated teams at home this year in Ohio State and Iowa. The Hoosiers took Ohio State down to the wire and competed last week against Iowa losing by only 8 points. They were a 6.5 point dog against an undefeated Iowa team now they are getting almost a touchdown more against a Michigan team that has two losses. The Wolverines have two close losses, but they are losses. We have value in this game. Michigan was a 7.5 and 8.5 point home favorite the last two years and then in 2010 they were a 10 point road favorite and only won by 7 points against the Hoosiers.
Michigan's last road game they were lucky to win by 3 points against Minnesota as a double digit road favorite. The Wolverines got outgained by 165 yards in that game. The game before that they got outgained by 156 yards against Michigan State.
Indiana has 4 wins on the season and needs to win two of their last three games to become bowl eligible. The last two seasons, they have won both of their final two home games. After losing last week, I have to expect them to give Michigan a run for their money.
I want to break down home/away stats for this game. Michigan is only averaging 24 ppg, 343, ypg, and 18 first downs a game on the road. Indiana is averaging 36 ppg, 502 ypg, and 27 first downs a game at home. So the Hoosiers have the better offense by 12 ppg and 159 ypg here. Defensively, Michigan is better, but they still only have a 8 point scoring margin of victory on the road.
While Michigan does have the better defense, it's tough to carry that defensive intensity on the road with the momentum of the crowd. Michigan's QB Jake Rudock only has 8 TD on the season to go with 7 INT. Indiana does have the offense to hang around in this game and keep in competitive.
Injuries: Michigan has 4 defensive line players listed as questionable for this game along with two linebackers.
Play on Game #714 Memphis Grizzlies (Friday, 8:05 PM EST)
I know Memphis has looked very bad for the majority of the season, but this is a favorable spot for them tonight.
Reasons: Portland is a bad road team as they are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 road games dating back to last season. Memphis also has owned this series in the past going 11-3-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings, including 5-0 ATS the last five meetings at home. Memphis beat Portland in five games last year in the playoffs. They won their three home games by 15, 14, and 6 points. That was when the Trailblazers had Aldridge who is now with the Spurs. Portland has tried to go small this season and utilize their guards Lilliard and McCollum, but these two guys don't shoot the ball as good on the road.
Lilliard and McCollum are combining for 56 ppg at home, and making 6.4 three pointers a game shooting 44.4% from the three point line. On the road they are combining for 50 ppg (6 less) and shooting only 41% from the three point line. While these numbers are not a big drop off, I feel that it is warranted and can be the difference in this game.
Meyers Leonard was supposed to be the replacement for Aldridge down low. He was playing 26 minutes a game and averaging 8.4 ppg with 4.4 rpg. He is out now with an injury. Portland's bench is already thing and this is where Gasol and Randolph are going to have a field day. Also Lilliard is dealing with a torn thumbnail against the Spurs. Lilliard is a shooter and this might affect his shooting and ball handling.
Memphis lost at Portland last week 115-96. This is a quick turn around and a good spot for early season revenge for Memphis who have owned Portland in the past. Memphis just lost by 16 to Golden State. When they lost to Golden State earlier this season, they responded with a 14 point win at Sacramento.
This is still a defensive minded Memphis team that has been playing better defense since the Utah game. Portland does not like to play defense and I think that Memphis will be the more physical team here and their defense will turn into offense. Lay it and Play it with Memphis.
Play on Game #716 Chicago Bulls (Friday, 7:05 PM EST)
The Bulls are fresh having not played since Monday when they blew out the 76ers by 23 points. They have had three days to get ready for this game. This will only be their second game played since last Saturday, so I expect them to hold nothing back and for head coach Hoiberg to use his starters to the maximum. Also, this is not just a regular game for the Bulls. Chicago suffered as 130-105 defeat to Charlotte eleven days ago as the Bulls surrendered a season high amount of points to Charlotte. To make things more favorable for us, the Bulls don't play again until Monday night so this is where I want to look to capitalize with them as they are playing on three days' rest and have two days off following this game.
Looking at their loss against Charlotte eleven days ago, the Hornets shot 14-for-23 from the three point line and went to the free throw line 23 times making 22 foul shots. The Bulls only went to the line 8 times and only made 3 foul shots. Chicago has had time to look at game film and make adjustments. I look for them to guard the perimeter better and to be more aggressive, getting to the foul line more often.
Jimmy Butler said he found it 'disrespectful' that Hornets guard Brian Roberts threw up a shot at the end of their blowout win eleven days ago also, just adding fuel to the fire and adding making this revenge game more meaningful for Chicago.
Al Jefferson for Charlotte is 5-for-19 in his last two games and has been held out of the fourth quarter as he has been struggling. Kemba Walker has also been struggling as he is 6-for-23 from the floor in his last two games.
Injuries: Noah did not play last game but he went through a full practice on Thursday and look ready to go off the bench. Veteran guard Kirk Hinrich appears as if he will be able to play tonight also and is a reliable backup to Derrick Rose. For the Hornets, Cody Zeller is nursing an ankle injury and might not be able to go.
This is Charlotte's 3rd game in four nights and their fourth road game in their last five games overall. Look for the fresh and revenge minded Bulls to win in convincing fashion.
When laying this high of a number in College Basketball like Kentucky is, I look for a team that has some returning continuity between the team. Kentucky does not have that. The Wildcats lost seven players to the NBA last year and have a whole new starting five, comprised mostly of freshman. This Kentucky team might be good come conference play, but out the gate they will start slow. Kentucky had the benefit of having a summer exhibition last year, they didn't have that benefit this season and Calipari knows it will take this team time.
Kentucky was the biggest and tallest team in the country last year. Now most of their size is gone down low and on the perimeter also. This is a much smaller Kentucky team with Ulis at point guard at 5'9". Then Kentucky is expected to start three freshmen along with Poythress who only played in 8 games last year. One of those freshmen, Isaiah Briscoe, might not play in this game as he banged knees in practice. Calipari said, 'Don't know if he will go Friday or Saturday'.
Albany ran their conference last year going 15-1 and winning 24 games on the season. This year they return 4 starters including their best player Peter Hooley along with Evan Singletary who are both on the All Conference Team this season. To go along with them are two other perimeter guys in 6'4" Ray Sanders and 6'6" junior Dallas Ennema to make up the best backcourt in the America East Conference. While Albany doesn't have a lot of size in the frontcourt, they do add in a couple of JUCO transfers and have a 6'11", 280 lb center that can bang down low. This is an Albany team that will use their speed and talent on the perimeter to compete with Kentucky, and in turn they will make enough shots to keep this game within the spread.
Albany lost by nine points in the NCAA Tourney last year against Oklahoma. Albany had 9 losses total last season. Their biggest loss was by 18 points. Five of their nine losses were by single digits. My point being is this is a competitive team and are even more experienced this season as they start three seniors and two juniors.
I know they are stepping up in class to play Kentucky, but this is a brand new Wildcats team. Kentucky might pull away towards the end, but I can't see them winning by any more than 16-17 points. Albany is a good covering team on the road also as they are 9-1 ATS their last 10 road games. Take Albany to get the cover.
Play on Game #710 Dallas Mavs (Wednesday, 8:05 PM EST)
Sure, the Clippers might be the better team, but this is a game that the Mavs want to win badly. The Clippers beat Dallas earlier this year but Dallas was without three key players in that game. ( Deron Williams, Parsons, and Wesley Matthews). Williams is their point guard and assist man, Matthews is their best three point shooter, and Parsons has not had a breakout game yet, but it is coming.
Other than that win against Dallas, the Clippers have won their other 4 games by no more than seven points (7, 5, 6, and 2 points). Chris Paul is nursing a groin injury and the Clippers are more concerned with him being healthy for the extended season and not this game here. Austin Rivers is a big drop-off at the point position for them. With the Clippers playing tomorrow against Phoenix, I have to imagine them not over playing Chris Paul.
Dallas lost last night 120-105 to New Orleans. New Orleans had a win coming. Dallas fell behind early and Carlisle let the bench play much of the second half so his starters would be fresh for this game. In fact, Dallas played all 13 players last night with the starters only logging 95 (39%) minutes of the 240 available minutes.
I went back the last 20 home games when Dallas has played the Clippers. The largest underdog they have ever been was a 3 point homedog in 2014. They lost that game by 7 points. Dallas had Marion, Calderon, and Dalembert at the time in the starting lineup. They have been replaced by Dwight Powell, Deron Williams and Felton, along with Pachulia who gives them more size down low than Dalembert.
The Dallas crowd will be hype for this game also and will be giving DeAndre Jordan plenty of boos for not signing in the off season. Jordan is one of the worst free throw shooters in the NBA. Dallas can use the Hack a Jordan method also as they have a deep bench to use their fouls. Take Dallas to get the cover.
Play on Game #715 Brooklyn Nets (Wednesday, 8:05 PM EST)
Edges for Brooklyn: The Nets are playing with three day's rest. I expect this rest to rejuvenate the team and also time for them to have some practice and work on things. Brooklyn started off the season playing in consecutive three game sets in four nights. I see this three day rest for them to be very beneficial. Brooklyn is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 3 days or more rest.
For Houston, they have won four straight games, but everything is not all good with this team. Their last four wins have come by 6 or fewer points. The Rockets two biggest spreads this season they have not covered. They gave Denver 10.5 and lost straight up. The Rockets also gave the Magic 9 and had to go to overtime to get the win. Sure, Houston is playing a bit better, but this is not a team that is good enough in my opinion to be laying doubles.
The Rockets are playing on three day's rest also. They might get Jones and Beverly back in the lineup which I see as a negative considering they were just learning how to win with Lawson and Harden on the court at the same time. Houston is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games when playing with 3 days or more rest.
Houston is still only shooting 42.7% from the floor while giving up 47.7% on defense. The Rockets are giving up 108 ppg which is another reason they are not allowed to lay double digits in this game. Take Brooklyn to get the cover.
Play on Game #102 Central Michigan (Tuesday, 8:00 PM EST)
This is a tough spot for Toledo after blowing a lead to Northern Illinois and also blowing their perfect season. Now they have to try to get up to play a Central Michigan team that has been one of the best covering teams this season(7-1 ATS). Central Michigan is coming off a bye and they are playing with revenge. Central Michigan is in a three way tie for 2nd place in the MAC West trying to chase down Western Michigan who plays Bowling Green on Wednesday.
In this game, we will have the better and more consistent quarterback in Cooper Rush. Rush has completed 71% or more of his passes in 3 of his last 5 games for 14 TD and 5 INT. Phillip Ely for Toledo I am not a fan of. He has now thrown 5 INT in his last two games while only completing 50% of his passes.
Central Michigan lost last year 42-28 at Toledo. It's always hard to win at Toledo plus Toledo's quarterback was Logan Woodside who finished the season with a 62.5% completion percentage with 19TD to 8 INT. Phillip Ely on the season already has 9 INT and only a 54% completion rate.
Central Michigan is battle tested for sure as they have played Western Michigan to a 2 point loss on the road. They beat Northern Illinois by 10 at home (N Ill just beat Toledo). They lost 30-10 at Michigan State but only got outgained by 126 yards. That was a tough game for the Chippewas after losing in overtime by 3 points to Syracuse. Then in week 1 of the season, Central Michigan played a current undefeated Oklahoma State team close to a 24-13 loss only getting outgained by 77 yards. So they have 4 losses on the season by 2,3,11, and 20 points. Central Michigan does play better at home as they are a PERFECT 4-0 ATS, including 2-0 ATS as a homedog. Take Central Michigan to get the cover.
Play on Game #505 LA Lakers (Tuesday, 7:30 PM EST)
We have traditionally seen close scores when these two teams meet. Dating back to 2011, ALL 9 meetings have been decided by 11 points or less which is what we need this game to be decided by tonight. I will also note that this is the highest spread dating back to 2009.
The Lakers are on a current road trip and started off with a 6 point win at Brooklyn then lost by 4 at New York. While the Lakers have started 1-5 on the season, 4 of their 5 losses have been by 11 points or less.
For the Heat, they have alternated wins/losses on the season. They have not been able to put together back to back winning games yet, nor consecutive covers. The UNDER has started off 6-0 in the Miami's games which also gives us value with the underdog in this game, making the points more valuable in my opinion. The Heat are ranked last in the East in pace of play while the Lakers are ranked 3rd in the West in pace of play.
The Lakers played Miami last year and were a 9 point dog and only lost by 6. The final score was 100-94 and tonight's game is the same situation as the Lakers were on the front end of a back to back and they are on the front end of a back to back tonight. The Lakers did not have Kobe in that game and Randle was out for the season and they still only lost by 6.
In the off season, they added Hibbert down low who has plenty of experience playing against the Heat. They also added Louis Williams who is instant offense. Also, Metta World Peace has been coming off the bench the last two games, and he gives the team a 'toughness' that can frustrate Wade. The Heat got DeAngelo Russell in the draft who has been shooting the ball better in the last few games and might be the Lakers best defender on the wing. Jordan Clarkson has emerged as the Lakers best player and I think this is a Lakers squad that has young talent surrounded by a veteran in Kobe Bryant along with Metta World Peace and that they have what it takes to hang around in this game.
Dating back to last season, the Lakers are 4-0 ATS as a double digit underdog. The Miami Heat was only a double digit home favorite once last year and that was against Philly when they laid 11 and won by 11 as the spread pushed. Take the Lakers to get the cover.
Play on Game #507 New York Knicks (Tuesday, 7:35 PM EST)
Toronto is coming back home off a 4 game road trip. More often than not, teams come out flat in their first game back off a road trip. Toronto is not shooting the ball good right now as they lost their last two games only scoring 76 and 87 points. Also, Demarre Carroll is battling a foot injury and it has affected his shot, his cuts on the floor, and his defense. He is questionable for this game. If Carroll does play, he won't be 100% which will probably hurt the team more than help them.
For whatever reason, the Knicks are playing better ball on the road this season. They are 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS. The Knicks gave the Cavs a run for their money, they beat the Wizards by 7 and beat the Bucks by 25. 'Melo appears to have his legs under him and is good for 30-35 minutes this game.
The Knicks are 5-1 ATS the last 6 meetings against Toronto. While the last 3 games have been a double digit spread and tonight's game is about 4 points lower than the last three meetings, I think it is warranted with 'Melo on the floor and with the fact that the Knicks are an improved team while the Raptors are struggling currently. Carmelo has averaged 31.5 ppg his last 6 games against Toronto.
The Knicks have held their last 3 opponents to 40% shooting from the floor which is another positive when taking them as an underdog tonight. The underdog is 19-7 (73%) ATS the last 26 meetings. The Knicks are 9-4 ATS their last 13 vs. the NBA Atlantic while Toronto is 3-8 ATS their last 11 vs. the NBA Atlantic. Take the Knicks to get the cover on Tuesday.
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