I like Wyoming here who returns 17 starters from last year, playing with revenge, catching double digits, and add to it this is their homecoming game. HC Bohl has his best team yet as this is his 3rd season at Wyoming. Bohl came from FCS powerhouse North Dakota State that won 3 consecutive National Championships and have knocked off several FBS opponents. Bohl runs a power offense and understands the option offense that Air Force runs coming from back in his coaching days with North Dakota State. His coaching staff has been with him for years also as this is an experienced coaching staff.
Wyoming has won their last 4 home games dating back to last season. Their RB ranks 6th in the nation in total yards and has 7 rushing touchdowns. The Cowboys have two senior wide receivers and and senior tight end who all have decent size on them. Wyoming has a strong linebacking core and an experienced secondary which is good for this game as Air Force actually passed for more yards than they rushed for last week.
Wyoming has covered 7 straight meetings against Air Force. They beat Air Force 17-13 in 2014 as a 1 point home dog. Bohl’s Cowboy’s have held Air Force to under 400 yards of offense the last 2 years and have kept the yardage fairly close, certainly close enough to be a one score game.
Wyoming’s senior punter pinned 4 punts inside the 20 last week including two at the 1 yard line.
Wyoming has covered and also won straight up 3 of their last 4 games as a home underdog. They have covered the L4 times as a homedog against Air Force. Air Force is 0-3 ATS their L3 games as a double digit road favorite and lost two of those games straight up. Air Force has only scored 11 touchdowns in 19 red zone drives leaving points on the board and I will factor that in as well here today, playing on the road.
Air Force is coming off a satisfying win against Navy that was revenge for them and have a revenge game on deck vs New Mexico as this puts them in a classic ‘sandwich spot. Look for Wyoming to play a physical game on both sides of the ball and bring it to Air Force in what should be a much close game than the double digit spread that has been posted.
Texas is sitting at 2-2 and HC Charlie Strong has decided to take over as defensive coordinator for this game against Oklahoma which is a good decision as Strong’s Longhorns have held Oklahoma under 300 yards of total offense the last two years. While Texas has two losses, they have outgained all 4 opponents this year. Texas has covered the last 3 meetings against Oklahoma in Red River Rivalry, winning two of the three straight up as a double digit underdog. Oklahoma has not shown they can stop anyone on defense this year. They lost to Houston on a neutral. They got shredded against Ohio State. TCU put up 46 points and over 500 yards of offense last week against the Sooners. Texas can take some shots down the field here and take advantage of the Sooners weakness at the No.2 cornerback position. Texas has switched up their depth chart on defense looking to spark some positive changes. With Strong calling the plays against a team he’s found success with over the years, I look for a strong defensive effort from the Longhorns players as they like playing for Strong and I look for them to get up for this game.Strong faced the Sooners one other time (Championship game in 2008 when he was DC at Florida). Strongs Gators held an Oklahoma team to only 14 points and 363 yards and this was an Oklahoma team that was 2nd in the nation in total offense that year. Oklahoma is down two starters and are very inexperienced at the linebacker position. Sooners QB Baker Mayfield missed Monday’s practice and was seen wearing a walking boot. His mobility in the pocket might be affected Saturday. The Sooners offensive line is very young (0 seniors/1 Junior/ 7 Soph) . Eric Wren looks like he will start at center. Wren is a senior but has had zero starts before this season and was listed as 3rd string before the season started.
In closing, I think Texas is better than their 2-2 record indicates and that the Sooners are still being overvalued here with a 2-2 record on a neutral field against a team they have clearly struggled with in the past.
New Mexico has Boise’s number when it comes to covering as the Lobos have covered 5 straight meetings. They beat Boise straight up last year 31-24. In 2014, New Mexico covered, losing by 11 as a 17.5 point home dog. New Mexico has started out the season out gaining ALL 4 of their opponents. New Mexico improved their defense last year by 80 yards a game and have improved 82 yards a game through their first 4 games in 2016. New Mexico runs an option offense that Boise will have a hard time stopping. The Lobos rushed for 505 yards at home in their last home meeting against Boise in 2015. Boise State’s last 3 games have been decided by 14,11, and 3 points (all under this spread). They barely outgained Utah State last week (26 yards). They beat a bad Oregon State team that was playing a freshman QB in the 2nd half. Boise is also coming off 3 non-covers as they are being priced a little too heavy once again here. Head Coach Bob Davie is 2-0 as a home dog vs Boise during his tenure at New Mexico, covering both double digit spreads (+18, +23.5), losing by 3 and 11 points. New Mexico has the #2 rushing offense in the nation at 347 yards a game and rank 5th at 6.49 yards per carry. Boise State also lost to Air Force last year, another power running team as they have trouble with these offenses. The Broncos haven’t faced an offense like this yet this season. With Boise getting their revenge last week against Utah State and knowing they are 5-0 ATS after playing the Aggies, I like this spot for New Mexico to keep this game much closer than expected.
This is a tough spot for Clemson to be laying this many points on a Thursday night just six days after fighting for their lives and escaping with a win over Louisville. In my opinion, Clemson was lucky to win that game and I think that feeling carries over here and they are facing a Boston College team that features the nations #1 defense only giving up 202 yards a game. Last year, B.C had the #1 defense also and only gave up an average of 177 yards a game at home. Boston College lost 34-17 (17 points) last year in Death Valley in front of 80,000+ fans. Tonight’s game will be played on their home field which gives them an advantage here. Boston College is a team that plays close games. Their last 16 losses (under HC Addazio) have been by an average of 9 ppg with 10 of those losses coming by 4 points or less.
Last year, Boston College had all kinds of problems at the quarterback position. This year, they brought in Kentucky transer Patrick Towles who was a 2 year starter with the Wildcats. Towles has faced the Florida Gators, Louisville, LSU, and the Georgia Bulldogs so he won’t be intimidated by the looks of this Clemson defense. The question I had to answer for myself is how will Boston College score here….They have scored 77 points their last 2 games which gives them momentum here and confidence. Sure, the level of competition was bad, but it’s given Towles time to get more in sync with his receivers. B.C. has a 6’3 and 6’4 receiver to get the ball to along with a couple speedy guys in the flat.
Clemson has only scored 19 points at Auburn and 26 points at Georgia Tech on the road this year. I will note that the Georgia Tech defense looked terrible and I Georgia Tech still should have covered that game and I was surprised Clemson did not do more damage. Other than that 19 point win, Clemson has only won one other road game by more than 14 points dating back to the 2014 season. They beat Miami 58-0 LY when QB Kaaya got injured early in that game.
HC Addazio will have his team ready and will have a great game plan. He has a defense full of juniors and seniors that will be making plays. Towles is a senior with SEC experience. I think it shows here as he guides his team to a couple scoring drives which will be enough to snag the cover.
I’m ready to take a position with Arkansas State has a weekday homedog in the SunBelt. There are many indicators along with value making me feel strongly about this pick. Arkansas State won their last 8 games of last season and had high expectations for this season as they were favored to win the Sun Belt. Now after the first month, the Red Wolves are still looking for their first win of the season. Arkansas State has switched quarterbacks to Oklahoma transfer Justice Hansen. They have a very talented TCU transfer in Cameron Echols-Luper. The offensive line features 5 seniors and there is no excuse for this team to be 0-4. Ark State has a senior kicker who is 4-for-5 on the season and has been accurate for his career.
Georgia Southern runs a triple option. Arkansas State has an experienced defensive line and linebackers. Georgia Southern has not been dominant this season in the early going as far as dominating the stats. They only outgained UL-Monroe by 66 yards and won by 2 points at home. They only outgained a terrible UTSA offense by 89 yards and Western Michigan flexed their muscles beating them by 18.
Arkansas State usually runs a balanced offense but is leaning more on the pass this year which goes good here as Georgia Southern’s secondary has gotten lit up this year as they lost all 4 starters from last year.
As conference play begins, I look for a motivated Arkansas State team to play an inspired football game on national television and embrace the rare ‘homedog’ role.
The public loves the Vikings on Monday night. I understand it as the Vikings just knocked off Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay) and Cam Newton (Carolina). I see this as a classic let down spot for the Vikings who I don’t think are as good as advertised.
The Vikings offense is not good and they have relied heavily on their defense. The Vikings only have 3 offensive touchdowns through the first 3 games. With Adrian Peterson out, there is a big downgrade at running back and let’s also remember the downgrade from Bridgewater to Bradford. Sure, the Vikings are 3-0, but they are playing conservative in more of a ‘playing not to lose’ fashion. Minnesota has not had more than 65 rushing yards in a game this year. They only had 211 total yards of offense last week. The Titans outgained them in week 1.
The Vikings have a very good defense. I understand that. They are 1st in the NFL with +8 in takeaways. Sure, if the Vikings force 3 turnovers, chances are they win this game. But if they don’t (or the Giants force 2+ turnovers), the Giants will win this game. The only advantage I see for the Vikings tonight is in turnover differential and my handicap is going to be on the Giants having the much better offense and also a team playing with revenge after last year’s loss.
The Giants lost 49-17 last year at Minnesota. Notes from that game. Odell Beckham did not play. (Now the GIants have 3 weapons at receiver with OBJ, Shepard, and Cruz) The Giants had no motivation to play as it was week 16 and they had no playoff hopes. The Vikings had Bridgewater and Peterson. So, a lot is different for this game. Shane Vereen is injured for the GIants at running back. He didn’t play last year. It was Rashad Jennings who toted the rock. Jennings has been practicing and is going to try and play. If not, it’s up to Darka, Rainey, and the rookie Paul Perkins. Listening to the Giants OC and DC, I like what I hear from them this week. The Giants will have the task of dealing with the noise of the Vikings indoor stadium, but I like their chances here.
I think the Vikings are in a spot for a let down. I also think that their field goal kicker Blair Walsh is terrible and can’t be trusted which can lead to some possible questionable 4th down play calls if they aren’t confident in Walsh.
At the end of the day, it comes down to turnovers. I’m banking on the Giants to play a sound fundamental game and force some turnovers of their own. This will be a close game and I like the points here.
This is Carolina’s game. The Panther’s lost last week vs the Vikings who are a covering machine on the road as Carolina was looking ahead to this game as it was the Falcon’s who gave them their ONLY loss of the regular season last year. Carolina has numerous advantages here. The first is motivation with revenge from the loss last year. This game has been circled on the calendar. Another is Atlanta working on a short week of rest after playing the Saints on Monday night. Atlanta got outgained by 32 yards in that game despite the 45-32 win against a piss poor New Orleans defense. That was a big win for the Falcons as it was a double revenge victory against the Saints. The public is shy to back Carolina this week as they just saw Atlanta put up 45 points on National TV. This game Sunday marks the Falcons 3rd divisional game in 4 weeks and it also puts them in a sandwich/ look ahead spot with the defending Super Bowl Champs on deck (Denver Broncos). I will also note that Atlanta is 2-0 on the road this year, but 0-1 at home. Carolina’s focus in practice this week is to protect Cam Newton. Atlanta doesn’t have nearly as good of a defense/ pass rush as the Broncos or the Vikings and I see this Carolina team erupting on offense in what is their ‘revenge game of the year’.
I like Michigan here as the scheduling dynamics favor them greatly. The Wolverines are playing their 5th consecutive home game to start the season while Wisconsin is coming off a road win at Michigan State and now has to go to the Big House with a game against Ohio State on deck. Wisconsin has two notable wins this year against LSU (who has two losses and looks terrible) and Michigan State who was coming off a big revenge game vs Notre Dame and that win is not as good as it looked on paper now seeing how bad Notre Dame is. My point is that I don’t think Wisconsin is as good as they appear on paper. For them to travel back to back weeks on the road and ask a freshman QB (Alex Hornibrook) to lead the way is a bit too much. Hornibrook has thrown an INT in each start and I expect the ball hawks of Michigan to pick him off at least once if not twice. The Badgers are averaging under 4 yards a carry as this is not that same Wisconsin running game with the usual experienced offensive line or NFL running backs.
Wisconsin beat Michigan State but the Spartans had 4 turnovers. The Spartans had 21 first downs and more total yards than Wisconsin. It was basically a gift to Wisconsin which is good because if Wisconsin would have lost that game, then this line would be closer to -14.
Michigan is only allowing a 12% conversion rate on 3rd downs. They have only allowed 5 drives inside the red zone and only 3 of those were scores. Michigan has been efficient inside the red zone scoring a touchdown 75% of the 24 drives. The offense is well balanced with the run and the pass. I see this game getting ugly with the Wolverines running away with it.
Under Jim Harbaugh, the Wolverines have been a double digit home favorite 8 times and have won all 8 of those games by 17 or more points. Colorado is the only team of these 8 to score more than 16 points. Michigan opened up with 5 straight home games in 2011 and drummed Minnesota 58-0 as a 21 point favorite.
I had Oregon State last week and they covered for most as the line closed at +16 vs Boise State. I bought in early in the week and took the loss at +13. However, I am going back to the Beavers as a 2+ TD dog vs Colorado who finds themselves in a rare role. The Buffaloes just beat Oregon last week behind rFr QB Montez who also led the team in rushing yards and he has been the focus of media attention this week Colorado is getting much hype now and getting attention they have not received before which leads me to a ‘fade angle’ on Saturday. Colorado is still staying num on who gets the start this week, Montez or Liufau. I like Oregon State regardless of who starts under center as the Buffaloes go from being a double digit road dog to a double digit home favorite. I expect the Buffaloes to come out a bit flat for this game as a ‘let-down’ should be in store since last week;s win marked the first time Colorado had beat a ranked team in their last 23 tries.
Oregon State has been a favorite in the last 3 meetings and they have outgained Colorado in all 3 meetings. While I like this Colorado team this year, I feel this is too many points in this spot. This is only the 2nd time under HC MacIntyre that Colorado has been a double digit favorite against a FBS team. This is a situational play where I feel we are getting a ton of line value with a motivated Oregon State team behind HC gary Andersen who has covered at a 66% rate as a road dog for his coaching career.
Oregon State QB Garretson got knocked out in the 1st half last week vs Boise State but is back taking 1st team reps this week and expected to start Saturday. Also the offensive line should get a big boost with senior Sean Harlow who has 28 career starts should be back and gives the O-Line a big boost which has not been stable this season. OC McGivern said Garretson went 14 of 15 during the last stretch of practice Wednesday and that the coach "didn't see any ill effects from nagging injuries." I expect the Oregon State offense to put on their best performance of the season.
I will also note that Colorado’s senior FG kicker got injured against Michigan and new kicker Graham is a downgrade. Colorado has allowed 8 TD’s in 11 red zone trips by opponents this year. Oregon State has scored 6 TD’s in 8 red zone trips this season. I see them matching scores with Colorado here and keeping the game within the 10-13 point range.
The spot is right for Washington under the Friday Night lights on ESPN as they are playing with triple revenge against Stanford. The last time Washington beat Stanford was in 2012 on a weekday game (like this game) and held Stanford to only 217 yards. This year, Washington has the team to beat the Cardinals fueled by a potent offense led by a talented QB in Jake Browning and a very good defense. Usually, we are talking about Stanford’s defense, but the Cardinals regressed last year by 6 ppg and 86 ypg. The Cardinals will be without both of their starting cornerbacks Friday night who are both listed at 6’2. Their replacements are listed at 5’10 and 5’11 so their is a height difference and the Huskies will look to take advantage. Tight End Darrell Daniels is listed at 6’4 and was a wide receiver coming out of high school. Dante Pettis is another guy that has a slight height advantage over the smaller corners. Washington also has an explosive playmaker in WR John Ross who was injured last year along with speedy Chico McClatcher. QB Jake Browning is completing 70% of his passes with a 14 TD/2 INT mark and this Huskies high powered offense built for speed is set to flourish in 2016.
Washington is 7-0 SU their L7 games dating back to last year and have scored 35+ points in all of them. While Stanford has won their L7 games dating back to last year, the offense is down 12 ppg and 94 ypg in 2016.
For Stanford, this is a very conservative offense that has only one offensive threat and that is Christian McCaffrey. He is the only player that has double digit receptions which is not a good stat to have if you are a running back. This will be QB Ryan Burns 2nd career road start only and playing in a rowdy environment on ESPN, I see him struggling against a lockdown secondary of the Huskies. Washington return’s their top 2 tacklers from last year and these two linebackers are right back leading the team (#1 and #2) in tackles this year.
Stanford has ONLY been inside the red zone 5 times this year which tells me this offense has not orchestrated too many efficient drives taking time off the clock like we usually see from Stanford and it also leads me to believing that QB Burns is inexperienced once inside the red zone. Playing on the road in front of a loud crowd can lead to poor decision making and Washington has a secondary to make him pay.
Washington is +9 in turnover margin in 2016 while Stanford is Even. UCLA was 3-for-3 last week inside the red zone (settled for 2 FG’s) against Stanford and should have beaten the Cardinals. The 22-13 final score is misleading also as Stanford returned a fumble for a TD at the end of the game. The Cardinals only scored 3 points in the 1st half.
Washington was looking ahead last week when they had to go into overtime to beat Arizona which helps out here as the Huskies are not a fan favorite this week and we get a very favorable line with a motivated Huskies team playing at home with a very good coached team. The Huskies hold every edge in this game except at RB and they will not let one player beat them I strongly believe as they have the talent on defense to stack the box and count on their secondary to force Burns into a couple of turnovers.
I am going to take the 4+ touchdowns here on Thursday night. Dating back to last year, Texas Tech has given up an average of 52 ppg their last 8 games vs FBS teams! Kansas is not going to put up 52 points, but my point is this defense is horrific and I do expect the Jayhawks to score enough to keep this game under the spread. Kansas is not going to attract many bettors which can be a good thing when there is a solid angle to play on them as the Jayhawks will be overlooked and the oddsmaker can usually shade in favor of the other team. I think we have all of the above working in this game Thursday night. Kansas has several factors looking up for them. The most important is better defensive play as the Jayhawks return 8 starters this season and have an experienced secondary. I think that this experienced secondary has somewhat of an advantage as the Jayhawks run an air raid offense now so they see it every day in practice and that’s what Texas Tech runs. Coming off a week of rest, I think that the Kansas defense will be in for the challenge to contain the Texas Tech offense. For Kansas to hold a Memphis team (put up 77 last week against Bowling Green) under 400 yards of offense and 21% on 3rd downs is encouraging here and shows that the Kansas defense is in fact better.
Kansas lost 43-7 at Memphis earlier this year, but only got outgained by 80 yards. Kansas had 6 turnovers or the game would have been much closer. HC Beaty said much of the bye week was focused on ball security by the quarterback. According to Beaty, recent practices have included an intensified emphasis on protecting the football at every position, as well as in more unique situations, such as special teams and interception returns.
I’m not looking for an upset. We are talking about 4+ touchdowns. Texas Tech is allowing teams to convert on 41.8% of 3rd downs (90th) while Kansas is ranked 31st, holding teams to 31% on 3rd down conversions. This is a Texas Tech team that has given up over 41 ppg the L2 years and have an inexperienced defensive line/ front 7 and now their senior starting safety Keenon Ward will miss this game after undergoing surgery last week for an arm injury. Taking his place at right safety will be either Payton Hendrix or Kisean Allen, both sophomores with no career starts. Overall, this is a defense that is playing 7 freshmen as they are very young and inexperienced to the BIG 12 along with some transfers.
Texas Tech only outgained La Tech by 94 yards their last game. La Tech ran for 261 yards against the Red Raiders! Kansas has three speedy receivers on that can break free from that soft Texas Tech defense and will be able to match some scores with Tech.The last two home meetings have been decided by 13 and 7 points, with Kansas taking Texas Tech into overtime as a 24.5 point dog in 2012.
Kansas HC Beatty and Texas Tech HC Kingsbury are good friends as they both coached together at Texas A&M and they have respect for one another. Kingsbury said of Beaty, “Tremendous recruiter,”...I think he’s a tremendous football coach. I know he’s trying to build something special out there.” I mention this because not only do both coaches run the same offense, but if Tech does build a big lead, Kingsbury might pull starters in the 2nd half leaving the back door open which gives us another way to cover here although I don’t think it will be needed.
The home team tends to have a distinct advantage on Thursday Night’s in the NFL. The Bengals just played a home game so they don’t have to travel which is an advantage. They just need to get their bodies fresh and be ready to win a much needed game after dropping their last two games. With all due respect, they faced their rival Steelers who were looking like the NFL’s best offense before last week and lost to the Broncos, who are the defending Super Bowl Champs. So it’s not like they lost to some scrubs. This is a kill spot for them to get back on track against the Dolphins. With back to back road games @ Dallas and @ New England who are both 3-0, the time to win is now. The Bengals beat the Browns last year, 31-10, as a 13 point favorite holding the Browns to 213 yards. The Dolphins don’t look any better than the Browns did last year. Miami should have lost last week against rookie QB Cody Kessler and the Browns but the FG kicker basically gave the game away.
For Miami, the injuries are piling up. For the offensive line, they will more than likely be starting Kraig Urbrik at center with Pouncey injured and Anthony Steen listed as doubtful. Branden Albert has a bad ankle but is listed as probable who is the left tackle. Starting right tackle Ja’Wuan James was benched last week but still supposed to start. Needless to say ,the O-Line is a mess regardless of who plays. On defense, the Dolphins appear they will be without two of their starting linebackers. Starting two backup linebackers against a Bengals team that is not shy to run the ball is just asking for trouble. Giovani Bernard has been known to shine in prime-time games and the Dolphins are allowing 147 rushing yards a game. I haven’t even mentioned A.J. Green who will have ample opportunity to burn the Fish if they decide to stack the box. The Dolphins have scored 24 or fewer points in their last 13 regular season games. They will be lucky to score 17 tonight. Naturally Im looking for 27 or more from the Bengals in a 27-14 type of game. The home team is 4-0 ATS in Miami’s games on Thursday night’s. They lost 36-7 at New England last year on Thursday night. In 2012, they only scored 14 points at Buffalo on Thursday night. The Bengals are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a double-digit loss at home.
I like the Saints here on Monday Night. The atmosphere for this game will be advantageous for the Saints as this game will mark the anniversary of when the Superdome reopened following Hurricane Katrina as the home crowd will be super loud in the Superdome. It was Monday Night in 2006 and the magic was there as the Saints beat the Falcons 23-3. HC Sean Payton is 14-4 as head coach of the Saints vs the Falcons and now it’s 2016 and New Orleans comes into tonight’s game in dire need of a win. After firing their defensive coordinator last year, the Saints made some defensive additions this year, but it has not showed up in the win/loss category. However, the Saints were in both games this season which resulted in close losses, by 1 and 3 points. A loss here and the Saints will be 0-3 having to head to the west coast next week. So obviously this is a ‘must win’ game for them. I know every game is a must win for every team, but I feel that some games are definitely more ‘must win’ than others. Sunday, there were 4 home teams playing with a 0-2 record. They went 3-1 with Jacksonville being the lone loser, which was no surprise as the Jags as they started 0-6 in 2014 and 0-8 in 2013. (Buffalo, Miami, and Indianapolis all won).
After Carolina lost yesterday, the Saints know a win tonight can put them right there where they need to be in the NFC South. They beat the Falcons both meetings last year and this is a team that will be good for their confidence and I also think the home crowd is worth more than what the oddsmaker usually adjust for the home team.
For the Falcons, Julio Jones appears to be less than 100%. Last week, Matt Ryan targeted his
tight ends 13 times last which was almost 40% of the time, using Julio Jones more as a decoy along with Mohamed Sanu. I think the Saints have good linebackers with the additions of James Laurinaitis and Craig Robertson who is leading the team in tackles who can cover the Falcons tight ends.
The Falcons are only 4-8 SU vs the NFC South on the road since 2012. With a HUGE game looming next week vs the Carolina Panthers, I feel their focus might not be where it needs to be for this game. Lay the points with New Orleans as they pick up their first win of the season in front of a rowdy crowd.
The Bills are sitting at 0-2 and are in dire need of a win. After playing Arizona this week they head to New England in Week 4. They hadn’t started the season off 0-2 since 2010 when Chan Gailey was coach and the Bills went on to lose their first 8 games. I will say in that 3rd game (after going 0-2 SU/ATS), they covered their 3rd game, giving the New England Patriots all they could handle. For Rex Ryan, he has never started the season off 0-2 and he decided changes need to be made after Thursday night’s loss against the Jets. OC Greg Roman was fired as the Bills offense was simply not making use of their playmakers and the offense looked terrible over the first two weeks because of it. Now running backs coach Anthony Lynn will take over as coordinator. Lynn also serves as an assistant head coach and has spent the past eight years working under Ryan. I believe the team will rally under Lynn and we will see some resemblance of the offense that averaged 152 yards a game on the ground last year, leading the NFL. (They have only accounted for 151 through two games this year. Guard Richie Incognito said, ''I believe in the guys in the system and I believe in the guys in this locker room. 'I believe coach Lynn is going to do a great job. Being around him for two years, he's got a tremendous work ethic, he's got a ton of knowledge of this offense and what we are trying to do. It all falls back to believing.''
The Bills have a scheduling edge as they last played Thursday night while the Cardinals played Sunday, giving them time over the weekend to rest and regroup along with giving the new OC more time to put together his game plan for Week 4. The Bills also have the home field edge as this is an ‘early start time’ on the East Coast for the Cardinals. The Cardinals have played on the East Coast with decent success under HC Arians, BUT this will be the first time the Cardinals have played an AFC East team on the road under Arians. The last time the Cardinals played a road game against the AFC East was in 2012. They are 2-8 SU dating back to 1996 on the road against the AFC East with both of those wins coming ONLY by 1 and 2 points (which would not be enough for a cover today). Before coming to the Cardinals, Arians was the OC/ interim head coach for the Colts in 2012. The Colts went 0-2 SU/ATS on the road against the AFC East in 2012. This is not a good spot for the Cardinals who are 0-4 ATS as favorites off a double digit ATS win vs an opponent off a SU loss, along with the fact they are a dismal 1-11 ATS after allowing less than 10 points.
With an upcoming divisional game on deck vs the Patriots, the time to win is now for Buffalo and they are catching an Arizona team that is fat and happy after putting up 40 points last week, aided by 5 Jameis Winston turnovers. Buffalo came off two losses exact last year three times. The result was them going 3-0 SU and ATS the following game, winning ALL three games by 9 points or more.
This game is not about who wins, but who covers. Hats off to Louisville who just dismantled Florida State and is now getting all of the national attention as a championship contender with QB Jamar Jackson leading the way as a Heisman contender. That sets the stage for tonight's game as Louisville is in a terrible spot with a huge emotional let down in place to go along with a huge look ahead game vs Clemson as this will be the most highly anticipated ACC game of the year other than Clemson and FSU possibly. For Louisville, it will be double revenge next week vs Clemson after falling to the Tigers by 3 and 6 points the last two seasons. This puts them in a huge sandwich spot Saturday night along with laying over 3 TD’s on the road in a tough stadium to play in, especially at nights.
Marshall is coming off an embarrassing loss vs Akron when they were a double digit favorite and now go to being a heave double digit dog. We are seeing about a 40 point swing from favorite to underdog here. Is there a 40 point difference between Akron and Louisville in the power ratings? No sir, there is not.
For Marshall, they were clearly looking ahead to this game after losing to Akron 65-38, behind 4 turnovers, although they outgained the Zips by 36 yards. Marshall has a winning tradition at home and I look for their focus this week to be on defense as the Herd only allowed 17.8 ppg last year. I fully expect a much better defensive outing Saturday.
The last time Marshall was a homedog of 14+ points was in 2011 when they got the cover against Virginia Tech. In fact they are 3-0 ATS their last 3 games as a homedog of 14+ points. The Cardinals are in a huge flat spot here and a key situational handicapping fade spot. They get the win, but I this game should hover around the 14-17 point range.
Oregon State comes into this season extremely undervalued and it showed as they were a double digit underdog in week 1 vs Minnesota and took the Gophers to the wire. Fast forward to week 4 and the Beavers will be playing in Corvallis where they have historically played good football before last year. In 2015, the Beavers only returned 2 starters on defense along with a new schemes on offense and defense and it was no surprise the Beavers only won 2 games.
I know they still have a very good coach in Gary Anderson. I also know the Beavers have a new OC and DC, both of whom came from Utah State. The Beavers QB also came from Utah State so there he is connected with the new offensive coordinator. The DC was at Utah State when they beat Boise State 52-26. I like that angle here and think he has some solid insight on this Boise State team.
Boise State has a game next week against guess who, Utah State. This will be huge revenge for the Broncos after getting embarrassed last year 52-26. While the Broncos are coming off a week of rest, I have to think some of their focus will be more towards Utah State than Oregon State who should not be taken lightly.
Boise State got outgained by 100 yards against Washington State two weeks ago as a double digit favorite and managed to win by 3 points, but could have lost. Do I put Oregon State in the same category as Washington State? No, I don’t but I like them much better playing at home and I like their head coach much more.
Boise State’s starting safety is suspended again for this game and they also have two other defenders that are listed as questionable. The Broncos lost all 3 of their starting defensive linemen from 2015 and this is not a deep defense which showed vs WAshington State. Also, QB Rypien’s 3 INT vs Washington State is less than impressive and makes be believe he won’t be able to handle the pressure here in a loud environment. (He threw 3 INT last year at Utah State and as mentioned above, Utah State’s defensive coordinator is with Oregon State this season).
Historically, the home team has won the last 5 meetings. Oregon State beat Boise in 2013 in a bowl game. While these are two different teams currently, still past trends tend to be our friend and are nice to have on our side.
I think we see a much closer game than expected and another PAC 12 team give Boise all they can handle.
Syracuse comes into this game with one of the nation's worst defenses and you might be asking why in the hell are we going to take them today. That’s a legitimate question considering the Orangemen burnt me two weeks in a row, you would think I would stay away from this team. But Syracuse fits a unique betting angle of mine that I have used over the years to be very profitable. (More on that angle shortly). Back to the Syracuse defense that played Louisville whose QB Lamar Jackson is looking like Bo Jackson and should be getting Heisman recognition. They then played South Florida whose QB Quinton Flowers somewhat resembles Jackson and the USF running back Marlon Mack runs like a ‘Mack Truck.
UConn’s offense doesn’t have any of that firepower. The Huskies have averaged a minute 17 ppg under HC Bob Diaco. The Huskies are 0-5 ATS as a home favorite under Diaco and are 0-10 ATS as a home favorite dating back to 2012. The Huskies have NEVER scored more than 24 points in these 10 games and it makes perfect sense why they should not be allowed to lay any points, certainly not more than a field goal.
Now back to my key angle on this game. Syracuse was up 17-0 last week only to lose 45-20. While that score looks bad, Syracuse outgained USF by 95 yards as the Orange has 3 turnovers. For UConn, they snuck away with a 13-10 win having to score 10 points in the 4th quarter, but the Huskies got outgained by 104 yards. This gives us a ‘double-inside-out angle’ where UConn is coming off a phony win and Syracuse is coming off a phony loss. While I see this, the oddsmaker only sees the final scores and in turn over corrects the following game.
Scheduling: UConn has National Championship contender Houston on deck and the Huskies beat the Cougars last year. At 2-1 (both wins by 3 points) and thinking about a bowl again this year, I feel like their eyes will be shifted more on next week’s game vs the Cougars.
I am taking all the points I can get here with Kent State in this early Saturday afternoon game. Alabama is in a huge flat spot after beating Ole Miss which was a double revenge game and basically their game of the year. After having to fight for every penny of it, the Tide were still outgained by 35 yards. Their reward now is to have an easy game against Kent State before prepping for SEC play. I can’t see Saban running up the score too much here given that he graduated from Kent State and should show some respect to his alumni before giving them a total whitewash.
The Tide are 2-9 ATS as a 40+ point home favorite since 2009 (0-6 ATS vs current FBS Schools). We usually see the Tide build their usual 28-0 or 28-3 lead at halftime and then call off the troops eventually in the 4th quarter. I think that’s the game plan here also. Kent State was a 36 point road dog in 2013 vs LSU and covered losing by 32. They played Alabama in 2011 and lost by 41. Alabama won the National Championship in 2011 and Kent State is a better team in 2016 than they were in 2011 to put things in perspective for this game.
Kent State has played two cupcakes the previous two weeks in NC A&T and Monmouth. They should be well rested and somewhat more prepared for this game than if coming off a tough conference game. While this is still ‘Kent State’, the Golden Flashes did improve their defense by 78 yards last year and return 8 starters on that side of the ball this season. The also returned a bulk of their offense and have found somewhat of a spark at quarterback in freshman Mylik Mitchell. While this is a big stage for Mitchell, getting 40+ points here against a unmotivated Alabama team with Saban having respect for his former alumni is a must take to go along with the Fact that the Crimson Tide as mentioned above are 0-6 ATS as a 40+ favorite vs current FBS schools.
Thursday Night in the ACC is known for upsets and this is a tough spot for Clemson. It’s always tough for the loser of the National Championship game the previous year to go on the road the next season and lay points. A lot of time, there is just something missing from these teams. Sometimes it might be the magic from last year where everything just seemed to go their way. Sometimes it might be motivation, or a lack of. Sometimes, the lines are automatically inflated from last season after the books got torched. I think all of these factors apply to Clemson currently along with the fact that their defense is not as good as last season. The Clemson defense lost 30 sacks and 44 tackles for loss last season. A team like Alabama can usually reload with defensive players but Clemson doesn’t have those same studs coming in every season. Clemson is now 0-3 ATS their last 3 regular season road games dating back to last year.
For Georgia Tech, they won 11 games in 2014 then came into 2015 way overvalued on their way to a disappointing 3-9 season. This year, they have already matched that total from last year, starting off 3-0 as this Georgia Tech team is on a mission in 2016 as they had went to a bowl game every year under HC Paul Johnson.
Series History: Georgia Tech is 3-0 SU and ATS as a home underdog vs Clemson under HC Johnson. I will also note the value here as this is the biggest amount of points Tech has gotten at home under HC Johnson (9 years). The offense struggled at times in a 17-14 win over Boston College to open the season but has since gained momentum as the spread option attack produced 289 yards rushing last week against a respectable Vanderbilt defense.
This line is short based on last week’s results. While the Eagles cruised against the Browns, rookie QB Carson Wentz was at home and faced maybe the worst defense the NFL. Things will be different on the road, playing Monday Night Football, in the national spotlight against a much improved Bears defense. The Texans receivers made some great catches against the Bears. The Eagles don’t have that same talent at the receiver position and Wentz starting tight end, Ertz, probably won’t play. Jay Cutler has been down this road before and knows the team needs a win at home to even their record at 1-1. He has a healthy Alshon Jeffrey who the Eagles corners can’t cover. Jeffrey is a Top 10 receiver in the NFL and now as Kevin White on the other side to help balance things. The Eagles offensive line is old and the Bears pass rush will get to Wentz forcing turnovers.
It’s so easy to remember the Ram’s 28-0 loss to the 49ers last Monday Night. It just seemed like yesterday. Maybe that’s because it was the last game played in Week 1, Regardless, after the game, we all concluded that the Rams are the worse team in the NFL which leads us into Week 2 and we have the Rams as a sizeable home underdog. This marks the Rams first home game in their new stadium and the stadium is expected to be full and loud with crowd noise. The Rams have a history of playing Seattle close which also is good for us in this matchup. The Rams are 5-0 ATS their last five games as a home underdog against Seattle, winning four of those straight up. This play today follows a system of mine where I look to play on a team at home after getting shutout their previous game against a team like Seattle that is off a win. I look for the new offensive coordinator to find ways to open up the offense and for the defense to contain Wilson as they have in the past. I will also note that Wilson’s ankle is not 100% which might affect how mobile he is outside of the pocket.
This is a kill spot for the Panthers. They lost one regular season game last year and came back the next week and beat Tampa Bay by 28 points. Carolina played last Thursday while the 49ers played on Monday Night and now have to fly to the East Coast (also 3 more hours flying to the East Coast after finishing the game late Monday Night) . This essentially gives Carolina 4 extra days to rest and get ready to take out their frustrations on a 49er team that IS NOT GOOD as their 28-0 victory over the Rams might suggest. This is Chip Kelly’s first year with a non-talented offensive bunch. Don’t let the 28-0 final trick you from Monday. It was at home (where the 49ers do cover) and it was the Rams who looked downright pathetic. I can’t see the 49ers being ready for this game. It’s just too short amount of time to get ready for a Championship type team in Carolina and it’s also a early start time where it will be 10:00 AM in California when this game kicks off.
The 49ers lost 43-18 (25 points) last year in this same spot playing Pittsburgh in Week 2. The 49ers had played on Monday Night and the Steelers had played that Thursday, giving us the same situation and angle here. The 49ers were a double digit road dog once last year,(+14) and lost 29-13 @ Seattle.The 49ers are 0-8 ATS vs a non-div opponent off a SU/ATS loss of 4 points or less. CAROLINA is 8-0 ATS vs an opponent off a SU underdog win. We will take that PERFECT 16-0 ATS double angle and look for an EASY BLOWOUT WIN by the Panthers
The Lions held off the Colts in a crazy game last week, with a 39-35 final. The Lions are still working on life after MegaTron and they are a bit overvalued against a pesky Titans team. The Lions have back to back divisional games on deck, with the Packers first. Think the Lions are looking ahead to the Packers? You betcha...After dominating last year against the Packers, it was a crazy hail-mary from the Packers that killed them, 27-23. The Titans have a much improved offensive line and a power running game with Murray and Henry. While the ground game didn't produce against the Vikings, things will be different against a soft Lions defense. Another edge the Titans will explore is TE Delanie Walker against Lions LB Tahir Whitehead. Also, LB DeAndre Levy is expected to miss which puts the The Colts completed seven of the nine passes thrown in his direction for 71 yards so I look for the Titans to exploit this matchup. Based on last week's final scores, I think we are seeing a slight over correction in the line. The TItans are a better team and played better than the 25-16 final score indicated. Tennessee outgained the Vikings by 15 yards and will looking to establish a run game vs a Lions run defense that gave up 4.2 ypr last year and 4.3 ypr last week against a washed up Frank gore and bad offensive line of the Colts. The Lions put up 39 points last week. They won’t put up 39 against a Dick LeBeau defense that will blitz much more often than the soft Colts defense that also was banged up defensively. While Stafford is playing good ball currently and I can’t deny that, the Titans defense is 100% healthy and safety Rashad Johnson and his teammates will be waiting to pick off Stafford. I like the Titans here to develop the run game and create turnovers defensively while the Lions get caught looking ahead to the Packers next week. Tennessee has won their 1sr road game straight up the last 3 seasons. (@ Pitt, @ Kansas City, and @ Tampa Bay).
Texas has had this game and every other revenge game circled on their calendar this season. It started with Notre Dame in Week 1. Then after a tune up against UTEP last week, the Longhorns are going to Cal to get revenge from a 45-44 game. It was a tough one to swallow as Texas came back from 21 down and should have tied the score up, but a botched extra point and that’s all she wrote. Notes from that game was that Texas outgained Cal by 102 yards and that was against a Cal team that had a much better team than what they have this year. Gone from that 2015 team is QB Goff to the NFL and his Top 6 receivers. While the Bears have a decent QB in 2016 with Davis Webb, the Longhorns defense is much improved, especially in the secondary and I think that’s the key to this game. Texas has a ton of depth in the secondary and the front 7 will be the best Cal has seen yet (Hawaii and San Diego State did not pose much of a threat defensively).
Offensively, Texas will use their power run game to impose their will on a very weak Cal defense that just gave up 334 rushing yards against San Diego State last week. The Longhorns running backs are bigger and more physical than the San Diego State running back. They are going to wear this Cal team out and it will get ugly. The Bears gave up over 200 yards a game on the ground last year, and look to be in worse shape this year. If Cal wants to stack the box, then that will open up things for Texas QB Buechele to go deep just like he did against Notre Dame.
At the end of the day, it’s just too much Texas who has a bye week on deck and nothing will stand in their way. Charlie Strong is on the hot seat and this is his year to shine and run up scores when he can.
If Oklahoma would have won in Week 1 vs Houston, then they would be the favorite here. Oklahoma was listed as a 9 point favorite before the season started at South Point sports book. So after two games was the oddsmaker off by roughly 10 points? My answer is a definitive NO. This is another game where there has been an over correction made by the oddsmaker and is still supported by public opinion.
I want an Oklahoma team at home, with a bye week on deck, getting points, and can’t afford to lose another game if they want any shot of the National Championship as they were being advertised before the season started. The last time the Sooners were a home underdog was in 2000 and were also a home underdog in 1999 which was Stoops first year as head coach for Oklahoma. The Sooners won both of those games straight up and won them easily (31-14 as a 3 point dog against a #1 ranked Nebraska team and 51-6 as a 4 point dog in 1999). Other than these two games 16 years ago, Bob Stoops as the Oklahoma Coach has been a favorite of 4 points or more in EVERY HOME game. So, what does this mean and how is it relevant to today’s game? Well, it brings immediate value to the Sooners catching them in a VERY rare role that the team will and can embrace.
As head coach for the Sooners, Stoops is 14-2 SU and 11-5 ATS at home the week before a week of rest. The two losses were both against Kansas State by 1 and 5 points, very close games. Take Kansas State out of the equation and Stoops and the Sooners are perfect at home the week before a bye week.
For Ohio State, sure they have looked good the first two weeks against a Bowling Green defense that is soft and cotton along with the Falcons rebuilding having lost their HC, OC, and DC from 2015. They cruised last week at home in the rain against Tulsa but it was more the Tulsa QB that did the damage making stupid passes along with questionable play calling. This brings us to Saturday’s game which will be Ohio State’s first road game of the season. The Buckeyes only return 6 starters from last year’s team. The Buckeyes had 12 players selected in the NFL Draft. I know this is Ohio State and Urban Meyer and they have replacements ready to go, but playing at Oklahoma early in the season is not the right time. Maybe if the Sooners had not have lost already I would think twice. But they have one black eye and can’t take another one.
While this line is floating around Oklahoma as a small home dog and a small home favorite, the price is right to back them here. The Buckeyes have only 2 senior starters. The running back’s , wide receivers, and defensive backs are still very inexperienced and I think it will show on the road in this marquee game. I haven’t spoken about quarterback’s as it will be J.T. Barrett of Ohio State against Baker Mayfield of the Sooners. After tossing 36 TD to only 7 INT in 2015, Mayfield has gone for a 71.7% completion percentage in 2016 with a 5 TD/ 0 INT mark.
At the end of the day, I’m going to ride with the team that I feel is more motivated and experienced in Week 3 of the season with line value on our side.
The Spartans are in a great spot here as they have had an extra week to prepare for this game. The last time Michigan State played at Notre Dame, it was 2013 and the Spartans lost 17-13, pushing on the 4 point spread. That was their only loss in 2013 and if it wasn’t for that, then Michigan State would have played in the National Championship game. Now those freshmen from 2013 are seniors in 2016. Michigan State is expected to start 8 seniors here and have more seniors backing them up in this revenge game. QB Tyler O’Connor led Michigan State to a victory over Ohio State last year and he won’t be intimidated against the Irish, whose secondary looked soft as cotton against Texas in Week 1. The Longhorns were going up top at ease and O’Connor has a 6’4 receiver in Felton Davis who can go up and grab the ball. The Spartans have a workhorse running back in LJ Scott and we see HC Dantonio dialing up a great blueprint in order to beat the Irish having had an extra week to prepare for this game and playing a basic ‘nobody’ in Furman in Week 1, the Spartans have basically had all year to get ready for this one. Michigan State is 6-2-1 ATS their L9 games as a road underdog, winning FIVE of those games straight up. Notre Dame lost a lot of talent on the defensive side of the ball from last year along with a couple of defensive suspensions before the season started.
An added bonus is adding in 6th year senior Ed Davis at Linebacker who led the Spartans with 105 tackles in 2015. Dantonio said during the Spartans' media day last month that this season's defense could be the best he's had in his 10 years in East Lansing.Adding Davis to the squad makes it even scarier.
The Spartans have consistently produced wins against highly ranked teams under Dantonio. Michigan State has won nine of its last 12 games played against ranked opponents, including five out of the last six. In addition, MSU is 7-2 in its last nine games against teams ranked in The Associated Press Top 10, including a 6-2 record since 2013 (beat No. 2 Ohio State and No. 5 Stanford in 2013; lost to No. 3 Oregon and beat No. 4 Baylor in 2014; beat No. 7 Oregon, No. 2 Ohio State and No. 4 Iowa, and lost to No. 2 Alabama in 2015).I smell an upset brewing Saturday Night in South Bend but we don’t need the straight up victory..All we need is a cover.
The oddsmaker is quickly adjusting to this Army team that is using a dual quarterback system making the passing game an added dimension to the offense. Army brings back a ton of defensive experience also and this is by far their best team is the last 20 years. Having said that, the problem here is that they have been installed as a road favorite here and they are 0-16 ATS as a road favorite since 1995! BIG WINS EQUALS BIG LETDOWNS in College Football and to make matters worse, Army lost their starting cornerback to a tragic car accident over the weekend which really questions where the Army focus is for this game as the last week has been spent mourning the loss of their teammate. UTEP QB Greenlee did not play last week but is looking good to go here. He started 6 games for Fresno State last year and started in Week 1 and has RB Jones who is a workhorse that is underrated and will challenge for the National rushing leader at the pace he is on. UTEP has found a speedy 5’6 freshmen to return kicks, play receiver, and can come out of the backfield also. UTEP finished going 3-0 ATS as a home underdog in 2015. This is HC Kluger’s 4th season and should be his best. With Southern Miss on deck, this is a must win for the team to get to 2-1. The offense will move here behind an experienced offensive line (Two guys with 27 starts each) and RB Jones that will open up the passing game for Greenlee. Special Teams: UTEP has a good senior kicker and a good punter as well. Can UTEP contain the option of Army? I do believe they can and get Army off the field on 3rd downs.The UTEP defense only allowed 3-of-12 third-down conversions at Texas after allowing 5-for-15 against NM State. UTEP needs a win here before facing Southern Miss next week.
This game has letdown written all over it for Calgary today. They are coming off back-to-back wins against West rival Edmonton, a game against East powerhouse Hamilton and four weeks ago against BC to exact revenge from their only loss this season. This Calgary team has been playing at a exceptionally high level against stiff competition and has been winning and covering spreads. Calgary's high level of play is set for a regression to the mean. To maintain their level of play week in and week out is arguably tough to do. They have developed a big target on their back and last week they had to grind and have things go their way to win and cover that game against the Eskimos in OT. That was a close call for Calgary and see them not getting up for this non-divisional game against first place Ottawa today with another divisional game against the red hot Blue Bombers next week. Ottawa is off a bye so they are rested and prepared for the Calgary attack. Calgary has had four physically hard weeks of football and see this being a spot where Ottawa could catch Calgary sleeping. With the continuous winning and covering of spreads we get a spot to grab inflated points in a bad situational spot for Calgary where I believe regression to their level of play is upon them.
The first thing I look for in College Football is a team that is going to cover obviously. Next, comes numerous situational, motivational, and value edges that I feel are beneficial for us that perhaps the oddsmaker has not accounted for or couldn’t account for if they wanted to.
Syracuse, fits the bill for me as an inflated line largely based on last week's final scores by both teams. The ‘books’ took a big hit with a Friday night that say Louisville (Favorite) cover and the game go ‘Over’ Now after getting punished, the oddsmaker feels Syracuse is much worse than what they were expected to be and the line set for this game is roughly the same line as the +14.5 for the Louisville game, although latem money pushed that game up to -17.
The good news for Syracuse is they have had an extra day to rest and prepare and are playing another home game. It will be their 3rd consecutive home game before hitting the road next week. Syracuse went 4-0 ATS as a home underdog last year before last week’s demolishing. It was 21-0 within the first 5 minutes of the game. Do I think South Florida jumps out to a 21-0 lead here? No, Im almost positive they don’t. This is what I think will be a back and forth game with lead changes and the winner decided by 7-10 points. HC Dino Babers, who comes from Bowling Green, went 2-0 as a home dog with Bowling Green so we have good traditional history on our side as a home dog.
Will Syracuse play as bad defensively as they did on National TV against Louisville? I can almost guarantee that with a NO, as defense will be a focus in practice and the South Florida QB is somewhat similar to the Louisville QB so at least Syracuse as already seen somewhat of the same QB the week prior. The Bulls run the read option, but don’t sell it as hard as Louisville does. I think the defensive ends do a much better job here as well.
REVENGE: Syracuse is looking for revenge from last year’s 45-24 loss. This is a totally different Syracuse offense that QB Dungey is more comfortable with. I think game will closer resemble the 37-36 final in 2012 when the yardage and score was fairly equal.
SOUTH FLORIDA: The Bulls have a BIG in-state REVENGE game on deck vs FSU. It was tied 7-7 at halftime, so the Bulls should be somewhat looking ahead of facing a National Contender next week.
After winning 8 games last year, the Bulls had only won a combined 14 games their last 4 seasons (all losing seasons). While the Bulls are a much better team, I still don’t think they are 2 TD’s better than Syracuse on the road.
I assure you it’s not my style to play on a team that has beaten me the last two weeks. That’s exactly what has happened as Rice got drilled in Week 1 and Week 2. Both games it was more of a play against Western Kentucky and more of a play against Army in Week 2 with an over correction in the line. I don’t think Rice could have played any worse. They were on the road both weeks and have an advantage playing at home on Friday night catching 4+ touchdowns. As far as health is concerned, HC Bailiff said nobody will be added to the report but two senior starters on defense Tabari McGaskey and J.T. Blasingame will be back. These two were unexpectedly held out of last week’s game vs Army right before the game. (Which I had no clue about when I bet Rice earlier in the Week against Army). So, that’s two important defenders back for them. Rice will need to have a pass rush. I think they can get to the QB also, at least enough to cause some hurries on the quarterback for Baylor. Baylor’s offensive line lost a lot and still is VERY inexperienced. Baylor only returns 10 starters (1 offensive line/ 0 defensive line). Baylor was tied with SMU, 6-6, at halftime last week on their home field and SMU was playing without their starting quarterback or the Bears might have been losing at halftime. That makes me furthermore question this 4+ TD spread on the road.
The bottom line for me here is if there is value in a line, then I am going to use it as long as my analysis and breakdown of the game supports it and not worry about the same team that burnt me the week before as my top pick. Baylor has already fumbled the ball five times (lost two of those), and Russell has thrown two INT’s. The Bears only returned 5 starters on defense this year and senior cornerback, Ryan Reid, is expected to miss this game, so that could leave the Bears very inexperienced on both sides at cornerback. Baylor has a few more guys listed on the injury report and with conference play kicking off next week, coach Grobe knows he doesn’t have a lot of depth on his team in 2016, and his primary concern should be to make sure he has healthy bodies against Oklahoma State next week, and not running up the score.
Underdogs have been a money maker in the CFL in 2016. I understand that. The oddsmaker has even tried adjusting lowering the lines a bit to balance the action. That works more in our favor tonight. Hamilton is coming off a loss at back at home which has work perfectly in their favor the last two instances, winning by 13 and 46 the previous two instances. They are 11-5 ATS the L16 games following a ATS loss.
Hamilton already made light work of Montreal earlier this year, 31-7, and that was without their starting QB Collaros. Collaros is back and is 112.7 rating is carrying this Hamilton team with a 15 TD/ 4INT mark in 5 games.
Montreal is a team that is in turmoil and ready for the season to be over with. They have lost 3 straight and 8 of their last 10. The offense has scored under 20 points in 7 of their L10 games. Montreal traded QB Kevin Glenn before their last game and now Rakeem Cato is the quarterback. Cato has been arguing and fighting with his receivers (YES- THE RECEIVERS on HIS OWN TEAM). Cato had to leave practice Tuesday when he and WR Duron Carter got into a shouting and pushing match. It’s said the two were arguing last week also. The players aren’t happy with the decisions that the Montreal coach is making, especially getting rid of Glenn. This is a team in turmoil with no chemistry or motivation offensively.
Hamilton BLOWS this one out with an ugly score in the 44-13 range.
What the public looks at it here is Houston’s upset win vs Oklahoma in Week 1, 33-23. It was a closer game than the 10 point margin suggest, as Houston only outgained the Sooners by 17 yards. The Sooners had two lost fumbles and Houston returned a missed FG for a TD. Houston is riding their high horse coming into this game and the Cincinnati Bearcats will be playing at home with revenge from last year’s 33-30 loss. In fact, the last 3 meetings have been decided by 7 points or less. While Houston won last year, the Bearcats outgained Houston by 162 yards! Cincinnati is a better team this year defensively. It showed last week as they intercepted the Purdue QB five times. Cincy has more athletes and more depth on defense in 2016 and are healthy. That’s a big key here. Another key here is the Bearcats offense in 2016 that is using Hayden Moore as quarterback to run this pro-style offense. Now it’s more running with 5th year senior Tion Green and junior Mike Boone. HC Tuberville spoke about Cincinnati and said, “It’ll be home field advantage for us, we’ll have a great game plan that we’ve been working on ever since the summer.” After getting beat 42-7 in their bowl game last year and Tuberville had won back to back 9 win season with the Bearcats, 2016 is all about revenge and a make or break year for the Bearcats. I don’t see them laying down here.
The Houston defense is a question mark for me. They lost 4 of their Top 6 tacklers from 2015, which includes 13 sacks, 20 tackles for loss, 10 INT, and 19 hits on the quarterback. Playing on the road in a hostile environment, Cincinnati will be in position to make big plays down field, but will also be able to be productive running down hill with the running game.
QB Greg Ward for Houston sat out last game to rest leading into this game. They say his shoulder is 100%, but I feel he might be one or two hits from re-injuring it. If something happens to Ward, then Houston is dead for sure. Cincinnati has senior Gunner Kiel on the sideline if something were to happen to Hayden Moore.
The Bearcats have won their last two games straight up when inserted as a home underdog and HC Tuberville is 5-1 ATS playing with revenge with Cincinnati. Houston was +21 in Turnovers last year while Cincinnati was -19. I see these two defenses headed in opposite directions in 2016 with Cincinnati being on the winning end of the turnover battle.
10* CINCINNATI
I am also issuing a play on Cincinnati MONEYLINE for 5*
I get it...No Brady...No Gronk..It gets to be a point when it’s time when there is too much public opinion and money on the Arizona Cardinals and a over- correction in the line I’m ready to move on the Patriots tonight in this Sunday Night ESPN Game. The last time the Patriots were an underdog of 7 or more points was in 2010. The result was a cover against the Houston Texans. Before that, it was 2008 and the result was a cover against the Colts. That was with Matt Cassel at QB against Peyton Manning. Jimmy Garoppolo has had time during the Preseason to get a feel for this offense and with his receivers. The Patriots will lean on the run game and have TE Bennett from the Bears who is a legit option other than Gronk. The Cardinals went 3-6 ATS last year as a home favorite. They are 0-4 ATS their last 4 home games as a 7 point or more favorite. Matthieu playing his first game back from injury also...He might be a bit rusty or not up to 100%. While the Patriots are banged up offensively, their defensive players are healthy and that is a BIG key for me. I think we see a lower scoring game here in the 24-20 range.
PLAY ON HOUSTON ASTROS RUNLINE, SUNDAY 8:00 PM EST
I like the Astros here +1.5 runs. The Cubs are in cruise control and motivation is a concern along with the fact that HC Maddon might sit some starters as they have to travel to play at Saint Louis Monday. The Cubs/Cardinals is a traditional rivalry that has more meaning to them. The Astros lead the Majors in weighted on base average and their bullpen has a 2.72 ERA at home this season. Mike Fiers gets the start for the Stros and he has a 17K/5 BB mark career vs the Cubs roster. Fiers home ERA is a 3.33 compared to a 5.43 on the road. Arrieta has not been as dominant and the Cubs priority is to have him 100% when the playoffs get here. I think the Astros win this game straight up, but am laying the small juice to give us the extra insurance and the WIN.
The public is heavy on the Bengals here and it’s understandable. Hey, they are favored less than a field goal on the road. That’s one of the biggest traps the oddsmaker sets for the mindset of the novice bettor thinking, “All they have to do is win by a field goal”. The Bengals lost WR’s Sanu and Jones and TE Eifert is out here as well along with a new OC and I expect their offense to be a bit rusty. The kicker here is that the Bengals have the ‘revenger’ of the year against the Steelers. The Jets only needed to win their last game of the season to make the playoffs and they lost. Game 1 of this season is a MUST WIN. The Jets were 4-0 ATS as a underdog last year under HC Bowles and also bring in a 7-2 ATS run as a home underdog. The Bengals were one of the best covering teams in the NFL last season and I’m expecting regression in 2016. It starts in Week 1.
I like the Bears with all these points. HC John Fox has been a cash cow as a road underdog in his head coaching career. Jay Cutler has a healthy Alshon Jeffrey and Kevin White to play pitch and catch too. For Houston, Brock Osweiler is making his first start for the Texans who run a complex offense. The Bears are an under the radar team that is receiving no love from the public. That is just the kind of underdog I want. The Bears made some nice defensive additions in the off-season that I like also. With the Texans having a Same Season Double Revenge Game from last year (Lost in Wk1 and then Lost in the Playoffs) against the Chiefs on deck, look for John Fox who is 30-12 ATS (71.4%) career on the road to get the cover here.
I live in Nashville and have a VERY good feel on this Tennessee team. Last week was a wake up call for the Vols that is one of the most experienced teams in the nation. Virginia Tech on the other hand is bringing in a new coach with a new offense. While the Hokies might be good later on this season, this is the wrong time to catch a Vols team that HC Butch Jones has been drilling in practice this week. The Vols cruise by 14 or more tonight in Bristol in front of a pro-home crowd.
My first angle on this game is the huge embarrassing loss that BYU suffered last year in the bowl game against the Utes. Although the final score was 35-28, the Cougars were down 35-0 in HC Bronco Mendenhall’s last game. Overall, the Cougars played a sloppy game committing 5 turnovers, but still only lost 35-28, holding Utah scoreless for the last 3 quarters and outgained them by 189 yards.
Saturday night, it’s time for BYU’s revenge and the players have really bought into Kalani Sitake’s system. Sitake was also a DC at Utah from 2005 to 2014 so he has an edge there on how to scout the Utes. BYU brings a new pro style offense under Ty Detmer and QB Taysom Hill looked good last week along with RB Williams who had 29 carries. The Cougars should have anywhere from 13-16 senior starters line up on both sides of the ball tonight. Utah, on the other hand lost a lot of experience with their QB and RB and Top WR’s departing. Defensively, the Utes are young at the linebacker position and this is where BYU can exploit them.
Utah has won the last five meetings straight up against Utah and this is BYU’s last stab at them. This is a rivalry series and I expect this BYU team that is loaded with upperclassmen that have fulfilled their Mormon mission to dominate this game, from a physical and motivational standpoint. If the last 10 matchups, BYU has has outgained Utah the last 3. There were 3 games were BYU got outgained by 45 yards or less. The Cougars have had this one circled on the calendar since the end of last season. Take the points.
A team in not usually as bad as they appear the previous week and that is the case in this game. Arkansas State laid an egg last week vs Toledo. Why they did so? There are a few possibilities, but at the end of the day, this is an experienced team in the Sun Belt that has averaged 37 and 40 ppg in HC Anderson’s previous 2 seasons. This year they have a Pittsburgh transfer in at QB. Chad Voytik is more than capable of leading this offense behind a VERY experienced offensive line that start 5 seniors. Defensively, Anderson has done a great job of bringing in transfers including an Alabama transfer at defensive tackle this year.
Auburn played their hearts out last week still to lose by 6 points to Clemson. Now they have two important SEC conference games on deck and this is a classic sandwich game for them. Shaun White has been named the starting QB and he had a 1 TD/ 4 INT mark last year and clearly doesn’t fit this offense that Auburn runs. While Auburn’s defense looks to be improved, the offense is still bad.
The oddsmaker has made an over-correction based on the final scores from week 1. Is Arkansas State that bad? No, they aren’t. This is a game I had circled on my calendar before the season started and am sticking to my guns, especially after this line got bet up initially. It’s a ton of value for an undervalued Arkansas State team. Let’s also remember that Auburn got outgained at home last year by Jacksonville State, Idaho, and San Jose State.
I am fully aware that Alabama just beat USC 52-6 last week so the average Joe assumes that they will beat Western Ky 70-6...Not so fast as this game has little no to meaning to Alabama as they have bigger fish to fry, starting with a very rare double revenge game at Ole Miss next week. Last week was the game that they played their ass off and Lane Kiffin proved a point to USC. This week has no relevance and Western Kentucky proved in Week 1 that they can still score with the best. QB White, a USF transfer proved that last week and the Hilltoppers still have a strong offensive line and one of the conferences best RB’s in Wales. They are not going to lay down here and it’s rare you find Western Kentucky this big of a dog. Western Kentucky is 6-1 ATs their L7 as a dog of 20+ points while Alabama is 1-5 ATS as a home favorite of 28 or more points their last 6. This is a classic sandwich game for the Tide against a scrappy and well coached Western Ky team that has had two extra days of rest and preparation.
At first glance, you look at the 77-10 win against Bowling Green, and immediately think they will do the same here. Not so fast as Bowling Green is a team that is clearly rebuilding and they have an entire new coaching staff. Not the same can be said for Tulsa who is in the 2nd year of HC Montgomery’s system. Montgomery came from Baylor and the DC came from Oklahoma St and other Top 5 FBS schools including Ohio State. Tulsa’s defense starts majority junior and seniors and will be improved from last year. The offense is dynamite and can score on any team, including Ohio State. The Buckeyes lost a ton of talent on defense from last year and it appears there are NO seniors starting on defense. Offensively, the Buckeyes still have a QB with JT Barrett, but lost so many key position players. Elliott 1874 yards and 23 TD’s along with losing 5 of their Top 6 WR’s from last year, and I don’t see this offense just piling up the points like they did against a wounded Bowling Green team.
Ohio State has a marquee on deck vs Oklahoma which is a huge look ahead spot. I don’t think we will need a back-door, but Meyer could call off the troops early and the backup QB is a rFR that hasn’t gotten his feet wet yet. Tulsa was a 30.5 dog last year at Oklahoma and only lost by 14 points as they put up 603 yards of offense which was a season high for the Sooners defense by more than 100 yards. Look for Tulsa to keep this one in the 3 TD range.
One of my initial angles for this game is HC Diaco of UConn was the DC at Notre Dame and used to face this Navy offense annually. Last year, Diaco and UConn held Army to 145 yards rushing and Navy to 325 yards of total offense. That was with Navy’s stud QB Keenan Reynolds under center. Reynolds has graduated and new QB Tago Smith got injured last week. Now Will North gets the start and is very inexperienced along with this entire Navy team in general. Navy only returned 1 starter on offense this year ( a WR). I don’t see them scoring many points here. Last year, the yardage was very close when these two teams met (343-325). This year, UConn returns 10 on offense and should be better while they still have a talented front 7 including FSU transfer Levenberry at linebacker. Navy won’t pass a lot, but Uconn has a legit secondary and overall I'm looking for them to hold Navy to 20 points or less. Im playing UConn to score 20 or more (23-27 points range) and a straight up win would not surprise me. Take the points and let’s CASH!
Is Rice as bad as they appeared in last week's thrashing against Western Kentucky? Is Army as good as their 28-13 win over Temple as a double digit dog? The answer to both is NO, but the oddsmaker doesn’t realize that and there is a big overcorrection in the line here. Rice returns 9 starters on defense and they can stop the run as they held Western Ky to only 3.2 yards a carry. It was the passing game that burnt them last week, along with dropped passes and stupid mistakes to go along with a fast tempo that was pressing. Army doesn’t have a passing game and plays at a slow pace that is better for Rice.
After losing in Week 1, it is imperative for this Rice team that is on a ‘mission’ this year come away with a win Saturday afternoon. To start off 0-2 would be decimating for a team that has high hopes this year. The best part is we don’t need them to win...All we need is a cover and this is a HUGE letdown for Army who was 0-22 SU as a road underdog of 7+ points before that win. (Reminder that Temple’s starting RB was out with an injury). Now for them to lay this many points is too much to ask. Army went 0-3 ATS as a home favorite last year. Against FBS schools, Army has given up 24 points against their last 5 home games when favored, dating back to 2012. Of these 5 games, they have only won one of them by more than 9 points. Army is 0-7 ATS off a DD ATS Win vs a
Both teams are improved this season. But the public is only going to remember the 70-14 win that Louisville had over Charlotte, whose defense is the laughing stock of the FBS. Charlotte is a terrible team that went 0-for-13 on 3rd downs and had 13 penalties, but actually won the Time of Possession battle. The Cardinals have big ego’s right now after Jackson threw for 6 TD’s scoring 56 points in the 1st half...Next week the Cardinals have a HUGE game against Florida State. It’s a double revenge game for Louisville and some of practice this week should be geared towards the Seminoles as Louisville has allowed season high yardage the L2 years when playing FSU. This fits my bill as a ‘Look-ahead-spot’ and being played on a Friday night, I like a hungry homedog like Syracuse getting double digits at home.
What is there to like about Syracuse. Number one is new HC Dino Babers who calls his own plays but brought a lot of his assistants with him from Bowling Green including the DC who improved Bowling Green’s defense last year by 75 yards. Last year, the Cus was hit hard with injuries to the QB, but it was Eric Dungey who gave the team a spark before getting injured against Louisville (tonight’s opponent). This is a passing offense and Dungey has his Top WR’s back along with Amba Etta-Tawo who is a grad transfer from Maryland. In the backfield, Syracuse is fast with speedy backs, senior receivers, and a better O-Line than most think. Defensively they return 8 after only returning 3 last year and their strength is the linebackers and defensive backs in this Tampa -2 defense. Syracuse has a Fr. QB they have been using to prepare for QB Jackson of Louisville this week. They are not going to blitz much and will force Jackson to beat them with his arm, something I don’t think he can do. Louisville lost 3 key players on defense from last year including a defensive end #1 NFL Draft Pick along with 2 key linebackers.
Since joining the ACC, Louisville won by 12 (No cover) in 2014 and won by 7 last year in the game before playing Florida State, indicating that this indeed is a look ahead spot. Other than FSU, Clemson is the only other ‘BIG’ game on their schedule and possibly Houston in November. Syracuse is 5-1 ATS their L6 games as a double digit home underdog. In 2008, they were a 11 point home dog to Louisville and won that game straight up, 28-21. Syracuse is 3-1 ATS all time as a home dog vs Lville, including 2-0 ATS as a double digit home dog. They beat Louisville in 2012 when the Cardinals were undefeated 9-0 at the time.Louisville was only a DD road favorite once last year and barely won (20-19) laying 12 at Wake Forest. Under Petrino, the Cardinals are only 3-5 ATS as a DD road favorite. Four times, they have been a RF of -10.5 to 12.5 points. Those 4 wins only came by 1, 4, 7, and 14 points. Look for this one to be closer than expected.
Argos just played 5 days ago at home to BC and lost by 3 in a defensive game. I do not put much into this short rest, I look at it as an advantage, which most look at and think it's a disadvantage to the Argos. Explanation: First, the Argos only played 3 games in August. Between their games they had July 31-Aug 12 = 12 days rest, Aug 12-20 = 8 days rest, Aug 20-Aug 31 = 11 days rest, this team is rested and prepared. Following their beat down at home by the hands of the Eskimos on Aug 20th (46 points allowed, previous week 34 points allowed at home), during the 11 days rest their focus was defense. They held a BC team to only 272 total yards and 16 points. It was Ricky Ray's first game back after being out 6 weeks because of an injury. First games back after injury are tough because I find it takes one game to get back to speed with the game. Ray looked average, but against a tough BC defense not so bad and now with a game under his belt, his confidence should be up. Toronto still has everything to play for here being tied with Hamilton at 4-5 for second in the East. Hamilton has lost 3 of 4 and their only win has come against the lowly Roughriders at home 2 weeks ago. The Argos are glad to be being on the road and have played with more confidence away from the pressure to win at home going 3-0 SU on the road this season. Hamilton 1-2 SU at home and like I said before that one win was against the worst team in the league. These two teams kicked off the season in Toronto week 1 and Hamilton beat Toronto as 5.5 point underdogs and now from week 1 to 11 with identical records and lineups go from a 5.5 point underdog to a -10 point fav a 15.5 point line swing!! These two cities are an 1 hour drive between them down the QEW, lots of Toronto fans make the annual trip to Hamilton for this Labour Day Classic. With these current odds for Hamilton the line is saying the Ticats have an 82% chance to straight up win this rivalry game. I'd say it's a lot closer than that, Toronto has a great shot here to upset the Ticats and I will take the inflated points along with a shot at the moneyline today.
This is big time revenge for Texas after losing 38-3 last year to open the season at Notre Dame with only 8 first downs and 163 yards of total offense last year. This is Strong’s year at Texas I believe and they start it out in Week 1 with a straight up win. Strong is being secretive on who will start at QB making the Irish’s young defense have to prepare for both. While both are going to play, I think the new OC for Texas, who will be running up-tempo, can draw enough plays up to keep Notre Dame guessing and off-balance. Texas is also strong in the back field with two power running backs. Defensively, Texas is going to be good this year and that is important because Notre Dame will have a decent offense. But the Irish lose 4 of their top 5 receivers from last season and Texas has a Top 20 secondary, along with a bigger and deeper defensive line plus Malik Jefferson who is a freak at linebacker.
Things went from being bad to worse for Notre Dame. The Irish lost a ton of talent from last season to graduation and now two of their defensive backs are kicked off the team which leaves them young and even more inexperienced in the secondary and linebacking core. Offensively, HC Kelly says he is going to play both QB’s so it remains to be seen how that turns out. I feel there are alot of questions remaining for the Irish and this is not a good spot for them in Week 1 played a pissed off Texas team whose backs are against the wall with nothing to lose.
Alabama is the defending National Champs which puts them in a different role opposed to last year when they came into week 1 of the season pissed from a loss to Ohio State in the 4 team playoff in 2014. Alabama took out their frustration on Wisconsin in Week 1. This year, I don’t see them being as motivated and in fact could possibly be a bit ‘hungover’ after beating Clemson in the National Championship game. USC will have no problem being motivated here as they are the first team to get a shot at the defending champs. This game is played in Arlington, Texas in Jerry’s world and the crowd will be more evenly split than one might think. USC has 5 Preseason All-Americans on their team and are flying a bit under the radar this year after last season’s under-achievement. The Trojans fired Sark and the players started playing for Clay Helton who is the head coach for this season. USC has a new OC in Tee Martin. Martin is an outstanding play caller and has been with USC long enough what works well with the team. The gameplan will be to call a balanced attack and to keep the Alabama offense off the field as much as possible. USC is stacked on offense and I believe Max Browne will be able to make the throws downfield needed to JuJu Smith who is a straight beast, but will use two QB’s here which I also think can serve to their advantage. The Trojans should have the best O-Line in the country along with a talented set of running backs. USC has a new DC this year, but was the DC in 2013 when the Trojans only gave up 21.2 ppg. He runs a 5-2 system and it was effective in 2013 and I expect the Trojans to be effective tonight also on the defensive end. HC Clay Helton says he is very comfortable where his team is right now and they are ahead of schedule as far as preparation goes.
Being the first game of the season, this Alabama is not going to be as good as one might think...Another new QB, another new RB that is unproven, and the loss of their Center. OC Lane Kiffin tends to call a conservative game with bubble screens that the defense sniffs out easily. I’m not taking anything away from Alabama. Their will be spots when we back the Tide, but this is not the ideal spot.
It’s not often you will find USC this big of an underdog, especially on a neutral field. This is an USC team that tends to play ranked teams very tough as my research supports. USC is 4-0 ATS their last four games as an underdog of 10+ points. They won 2 of those games head up in 2011. So historically, the Trojans step up to stiff competition and embrace the underdog role. They should as these are highly recruited kids with something to prove. USC has not been more than a 3 point dog in the month of September since 2001! Alabama is only 3-5 ATS their L8 games in September when a favorite of 11 points or less. Overall in regular season games when Bama has been a favorite of 8.5-10.5 points, they are only 2-7 ATS dating back to 2009. Look for this one to come down to the wire.
I like the current line here with Kent State and expect this line to be bet down before game time after this line got bet up initially and I love the value with Kent State getting all these points. This game covers a lot of my betting angles that I use handicapping for Week 1 of College Football.
The Golden Flashes return 18 starters from a team that struggled most notably down the stretch last season. The Golden Flashes return 105 offensive line starts which I see as being beneficial for this game. We are going to need to score and we will need the O-Line to give the QB time in order to score. The Penn State D-Line is going to start the season off inexperienced as they lose 3 guys to the NFL and will have a hard time penetrating the O-Line of Kent State.
This is HC Haynes 4th year with Kent State and generally the 4th year will be a strong one for a coach under a new program. After seeing the offense struggle, Kent State moved QB to receiver and the offense can only get better under a new QB. The defense is strong for Kent State, especially their linebackers and secondary which should matchup well against Penn State. They have a 1st ™ MAC free safety, a 1st ™ MAC corner, an Ohio State transfer that will play the Apache position.
For Penn State, they might be a better team as the season progresses, but installing a new offense with a new QB, I can’t see them putting up enough points to cover here. I will also note that Penn State’s DC Bob Shoop left for Auburn and I see this defense regressing a bit in 2016.
Penn State went 0-3 ATS last year as a double digit favorite. Their opening game of the season has been decided by 10 points or less the last 4 years.
Lafayette has carries a strong winning tradition in the Sun Belt and I look for them to be more competitive this season after losing the final 4 games of 2015 and qualify as a ‘mission’ team in 2016. I like this spot they are in Saturday afternoon. This is a 11:00 Central time start which is very unusual for Boise State. It’s the first time since an 11 a.m. CT game at Southern Miss on Oct. 6, 2012, that the Broncos have started a game before 12 p.m. in the time zone where it was being played. Also, the heat and humidity could play an effect on Boise State in the 2nd half.Boise State has a good offense, but concerns on defense and that is where Lafayette covers this game. They only return 5 starters on defense (Zero D-Line) and it appears that Dylan Sumner-Gardner and Chanceller James who are projected defensive back starters are dealing with disciplinary issues.That would more than likely put two freshmen in the defensive backfield for the Broncos. This is where Lafayette can exploit the Broncos.
Lafayette got a big boost getting LSU transfer Brandon Jennings in at Quarterback. Jennings has a big arm and quick release and SEC experience starting 12 games for the LSU Tigers. Lafayette has a powerful running back and some speedy receivers. This team will score and can keep this game in the 1-2 touchdown range. The city of Louisiana will be amped up for this game after all the flooding that went on a few weeks ago. Look for the players to be extra motivated here and catch Boise State off guard with this early start time.
Lafayette has only been a home underdog twice under HC Hudspeth and have won both of those games straight up. A 55-40 win as a 3 pt home dog vs Ark State in 2014 and a 31-17 win as a 6 point home dog vs Troy in 2011. Boise State is only 2-4 ATS their L6 games as a road favorite of 17+ points.
Play on Colorado Friday, September 2nd 8:00 PM EST
I know, I know….How can Colorado be giving Colorado State this many points? Well, Colorado State only returns 9 Defensive line starts which figures to be a problem against a Colorado team that has the best offensive line that HC MacIntyre has had and is a matchup that the Buffaloes will exploit and win. This is MacIntyre’s 4th season as the Buffaloes head coach and it will be his best overall. They added former CU receiver Darrin Chiaverini (former Texas Tech assist) to the coaching staff as a receivers coach and co-offensive coordinator with Brian Lindgren. That duo had a good offseason putting a plan together, and it has been a smooth transition into fall camp. Expect an ‘Air Raid’ offense from Colorado this year and they have a senior quarterback to run it along with an experienced receiver core and an offensive line that can block. On defense, Colorado returns 9 starters to a defense that improved 11.5 ppg and 44 ypg last year along with the return of nose tackle Josh Tupou from a one-year suspension has bolstered the Buffs. The 6-foot-3, 325-pounder has 31 starts in his career and gives the Buffs a big run stuffer in the middle. So this is a very experienced defense with a good defensive coordinator Jim Leavitt and this will be their 2nd year in this defensive system and I look for more improvement. Leavitt spent 13 years at South Florida and turned them into a respectable program and is doing the same for this defense.
Colorado State has issues at the receiver position losing WR Higgins to the NFL and their Top 4 WR’s overall which is huge for Week 1 of the season. Their game plan for this game will be conservative focused on the run game and dink and dunk passes with the QB not being in sync with the new inexperienced receivers. Colorado has a respectable secondary and I don’t see the Rams doing much in the passing game. I also don’t see them doing too much running the ball with the Buffaloes improved D-Line that is bigger, stronger, and more experienced. The other issue and matchup to exploit for this game is the fact that Colorado State loses all 3 of their defensive line starters and has to replace two 4 yr starters and one 3 yr starters in the secondary. Colorado has a senior quarterback and a deep group of receivers. I think receivers is where they are the deepest and they will be able to exploit a young and inexperienced secondary of Colorado State.
Colorado is 5-2 ATS vs Colorado State the last seven times when they have been a favorite. In 2011, the Buffaloes were a 7 point favorite and won 28-14 and this is a similar line here and I expect a similar final score. Under HC Macintyre, Colorado has been a favorite of 7+ points seven times and they are 6-1 ATS (loss coming at Hawaii last year) with those 6 wins all coming by 9 points or more. Colorado State is 1-19 SU their last 20 games as an underdog of 7 or more points and 0-4 ATS their last 4 and 3-9-1 ATS their last 12. Of these 19 losses when a dog of 7+ points, 17 of them have come by double digits.
I like Rice here with the points. This line is inflated towards Western Kentucky based on what both teams had an did in 2015. Things are much different in 2016. Starting with Western Kentucky, they lost their QB to the NFL which I think is huge. Not only is the point production going to go down, the defense is also going to regress as they only bring back four starters. In 2014, the Hilltoppers only brought back 4 starters and gave up 39.9 ppg. They lose both their defensive tackles and both their cornerbacks. This will open up holes for the Rice run game and also be good for their passing game. There is going to be a big dropoff for whoever starts this game for Western. Rice returns 16 starters this season and is looking to bounce back this season after a 5 win season in 2015. The defense is loaded with returning starters which will contain the Western offense. Rice brings in a new quarterback but he is a senior and knows the playbook and should produce. Rice has a strong running game and will be able to lean on the run and penetrate the soft defensive line of Western. Western Kentucky benefited +14 turnovers last year (+5 when they played Rice). Rice was 12 in turnovers last year which gives us a nice angle for this game. So many times, these teams that were fortunate to win the turnover battle last year, aren’t so lucky the next year. And the same can be said for a team like Rice that lost the turnover battle in 7 games last year; they should be better this season as ball control will be a focus in practice. While Western Kentucky’s focus will be here for this game, I question if all of it will be here as they have to play Alabama, the defending National Champions in Week 2. Rice will be well prepared and reports are they have looked good in their scrimmages leading into this game. After turning the ball over 5 times last year, I expect that to be a point of emphasis here. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Rice jump out to an early lead and do enough to hold on. Western Kentucky’s coach Jeff Brohm has stated that they “have to get consistency from the quarterback position.” I have watched some audio from Brohm after practice and haven’t heard him say anything about being confident and comfortable about the quarterback position. It’s not easy to replace a QB that passed for 4,000+ yards and 40+ touchdowns in consecutive seasons.
The Vikings just suffered a huge loss with Bridgewater with a torn ACL. This sudden injury send the team in a frantic mode and I can’t see them being focused in any way for tonight’s game. Now the backup QB Shaun Hill is the backup QB and the Vikings can’t afford to have him injured which leaves rookie Joel Stave who is about as bad of a 3rd string QB as it gets. For the Rams, Jeff Fisher has been treating the preseason more importantly and wanting to win games. There is a good chance that Jared Goff starts this game while Sean Mannion takes the remaining snaps. Both of these guys are better than Stave for the Vikings. We’re going to go out and try to win this football game and evaluate some players,” Fisher said. I look for them to get the win as well against a Vikings team that is still going to be in shell-shocked mode.
This is a case of taking a nice sized plus dog with the team with the better pitcher. The A’s will call on Kendall Graveman who has been much better than the Astros Colin McHugh. The A’s have won 11 of his L14 starts. The 3 losses have some by 1,2, and 2 runs. He has faced the Astros 3 times this season and Oakland won two of those games and lost the other by one run. McHugh has a 6.15 ERA for the month of August and had a 5.33 ERA for the month of July. He has faced Oakland twice this season and the Astros won both games, but by only one run. The Houston Astros are only 17-40 (29.8%) this season as a home favorite on the run line -1.5 runs. Oakland is 56.1% this year as a road underdog of +1.5 runs. The public is high on Houston tonight. Let’s grab the insurance and lay a small amount of juice and take the +1.5 runs.
This is a straight situational move here. Calgary is coming off 4 straight divisional games;two versus BC and two versus the Roughriders (4-0 SU 3-1 ATS) and now face a non-divisional opponent before facing the defending Grey Cup champs the Eskimos the next two weeks in a home and home series. Calgary has the Eskimos at home next week in the annual Labor Day Classic and could get caught looking ahead to the next game. Hamilton can take over first place in the East here with a win in Calgary. We get a bad situational spot here with Calgary laying points to very well defensive team in Hamilton and let’s take all the points we can get here but we might not need them as a straight up win would not surprise me.
Roughriders are a big ugly dog and if your new to the CFL, big ugly dogs cash tickets. Roughriders off an embarrassing loss last week to Hamilton 53-7 have nothing to lose tonight versus the Eskimos. This is the second match-up between the two teams as Edmonton won the first game in OT week 3, but failed to cover the 10 point spread. Now week 10, we get more points to play with because of previous results. Edmonton goes to Toronto and crushes them putting up 46 points and Saskatchewan gets crushed by Hamilton putting up a measly 7 points. Edmonton could get caught here looking ahead to their annual Labor Day game vesus rival Calgary in what is the first of a home and home between the two teams. You have to question motivation here from Edmonton wanting to beat up another team with division leader Calgary on deck for the next two games. The Roughriders have little to play for, but respect the live ugly dog in this game as Edmonton is in a bad situational spot with an inflated line.
10* Roughriders
Im also advising a 2* Play on the Roughriders MONEYLINE +625
New England comes into this game 2-0 in the preseason and this is a game Belichick wants to fine tune the offense will Garoppolo since he will be starting Week 1 @ Arizona. Garoppolo finished last week going 16-for-21 with 181 yards and a TD and I expect him to log heavy snaps this game. For Cam Newton, I don’t expect him to play as much, as their is no reason to over play Newton when the focus is being healthy for week 1, opposed to the Patriots still trying to get their QB ready for Week’s 1 thru 4. Cyrus Jones, the rookie corner for the Patriots, looked good also grabbing an INT. Blount was running the ball hard and the Patriots looked good in my opinion although I faded them and got the last second cover with the Bears +3. For Carolina they played Saturday @ Tennessee and don’t have as much time to rest and prepare for this game. Besides that, they are only two weeks away from their big revenge game vs Denver. These two teams played last year and the score was 17-16. In 5 Preseason games, the Panthers have never beaten the Patriots by more than 3 points.This is a must take.
Most People will only remember Montreal’s 43-19 demolishing on Ottawa last week as a 9 point road dog. I remember that (as I bet on Montreal), but I also remember the fact they were only 1-5 SU their previous 6 games and all of their losses came by double digits. That sets the stage for tonight’s game and Winnipeg is playing with a week of rest and revenge after losing at home to the Alouettes in Week 1 of the season. Now WInnipeg is red hot, winners of three straight games with their defense only allowing 17 ppg. Their last 3 wins have come by a combined 50 points, winning as an underdog in each game. Winnipeg leads the CFL in takeaways and their secondary gets back two players this week, Chris Randle and Macho Harris. Montreal is 2-6 ATS their last 8 games when favorite dating back to last season. Winnipeg has put up 28, 20, and 34 points their last 3 games as a road dog.
This is the Preseason, let’s remember that. I’m also remembering that the Panther’s lost the Super Bowl and that the Preseason is not important to them. They are more concerned with a Wk1 matchup against the Broncos to get their revenge from the Super Bowl. The Panthers want to make sure everybody is healthy for that game. In Wk1 vs the Ravens, Carolina’s leading rusher was QB Joe Webb and the team only averaged 2.7 yards a carry.
For the Titans, their run game looked strong as this is now a power running game with an improved offensive line and two stud running backs in DeMarco Murray and Heisman Winner Derrick Henry. The Titans had 288 rushing yards in Week 1 and 437 total yards of offense. I truly believe they have momentum for this game. I also believe the offensive line starters will play a lot in this game and the Titans got another big offensive lineman this week via the Eagles and he is a natural fit for new offensive line coach Russ Grimm’s power system.
Also, while this is Preseason, there is expected to be a big home crowd in Nashville for this game after the locals saw last week’s game as the local fans are excited. Carolina lost shut down cornerback Josh Norman to the Redskins in the off-season and have 3 rookies at corner this season with two of them being listed as starters. I think the Titans can make the rookies pay for some mistakes a few times here. Other potential red flags and reasons to fade Carolina here is they had 9 penalties in Wk1 for 80 yards and were Panthers were 1-for-6.
Cam Newton is expected to play 3 series, regardless of if they score or how long the drives are. Titans DC Lebeau held the Panthers to 14 points in the first half last year with a 14-10 score at halftime. Rookie Titans CB Kevin Byard had an interception last week against the Chargers and intercepted Matt Cassel twice in practice the other day.
The Titans are 16-2 SU their L18 preseason home games and have held 6 of their last 7 opponents to 19 points or fewer in these preseason home games. The Panthers are 5-13 their L18 Preseason road games. They are also only 2-7 ATS their L9 Preseason games in Week 2.
True enough that Gerrit Cole had his season worst start last weekend at the Dodgers. Cole still has the 5th best FIP in the Majors this year at a 2.84. His FIP has been a 2.74 or lower his last six starts since the All-Star Break. The good news for the Pirates is they are swinging the bat right now and that’s what I look for when laying -1.5 runs. The Pirates are 6-1 their L7 games and are close to being 7-0. They had three consecutive games on their road trip where they record double digit hits. I will also note that the Pirates are 5-0 their last five games during game 1 of a series.
The Marlins have a terrible history playing at PNC Park going 1-11 their L12 games in Pittsburgh and are 0-4 in Tom Koehlers 4 career starts vs the Pirates and have lost ALL 4 games by 2 or more runs. Current members of the Pirates are hitting .388 vs Koehler with a .485 wOBA. The Pirates have won both of Cole’s 2 team starts at PNC Park. Koehler had a run of four strong starts then somewhat resembled his normal self last start. I expect him to return more to his normal here which is opposing batters hitting .304 against him on the road.
The Marlins are in regressing mode currently ever since the loss of Stanton. Andrew McCutcheon is 4-for-7 career vs Koehler with a HR and is hot right now having had two hits in his last 3 games.
The Pirates are still very much in the playoffs now only 1 game back of the Cardinals and 3 games behind the Giants for the Wild Card spots and will be playing with extra motivation.
Play on Tampa Bay Rays on the Runline -1.5 Runs (Thursday, 1:10 PM EST)
I faded Christian Friedrich last week in a day game at Pittsburgh that had an early start time. This is the same situation here as this is a ‘get away’ Day game for the Padres as they fly back home to play Arizona on Thursday. For the Rays, they have tomorrow off for rest so they should be able to give a 100% effort in this game and not rest any players.
I love the pitching matchup here also. Chris Archer for the Rays is pitching much better the 2nd half of the season. HE has a 3.01 FIP compared to a 4.24 FIP in the 1st half. His walks per 9 Innings is way down (3.93 to 1.59) and his average with balls in play is down also (.321 to .265). Archer’s FIP at home this year is a full run lower than on the road. Christian Friedrich only has 10 strikeouts in 27.1 IP since the All-Star Break. He is 0-3 in 5 day starts with a 5.76 ERA. The Padres have lost the last 6 road meetings at Tampa Bay and their offense is really struggling currently. The Padres have not had more than 7 hits in a game their last 9 games.
The Padres bullpen is terrible. They just left Villanueva in there last night to get torched giving up 4 HR’s and 7 runs in 4 innings. It’s embarrassing to leave a reliever in like that which tells me this ball club has pretty much given up and the manager has given up as well. The Padres bullpen is ranked 27th in SIERRA (4.04) since the All-Star Break and the Rays pen has been solid over the L7 days with a 2.79 ERA .
With the moneyline here being so high, I have to look at the Runline (-1.5). So when I took a look at the Runline here, I found this: Archer is 2-0 career as Home Favorite of -185 or more with the final score being 5-0 and 13-3. Christian Friedrich is 0-8 in his 8 career team starts when inserted as a +170 or greater underdog. The average score in these 8 games is 5.2 (home team) to 1.6 (road team).
The Rays bats have woken up the last two games of this series. The Padres bats are asleep and should be still sleeping in this day game. We have a much better pitcher that I am confident in and I trust the bullpen to seal the deal here.
I am going looking at the Houston Texans who have looked sharp in the joint practices with the 49ers this week to carry over into this preseason game with a win. Brock Osweiler has looked good as so has backup Tom Savage. Tom Savage has been with O'Brien and this offense for 3 years and fully understands this offense. I think Savage will play a lot of this game. But Osweiler is going to get his fair amount of snaps with the first team also. “Obviously Brock will get a decent amount of snaps in the first half,” O’Brien said. “Whether it’s by quarter, or by the amount of snaps or maybe the series, we’ll have to kind of see how the game’s going, try to get him into a rhythm, which will be good.” The one thing that has to be taken into account is the offensive line of the Texans is banged up and O'Brien isn't going to leave Osweiler in there if he is not getting protection. Brandon Weeden is the 3rd string QB and he can at least somewhat manage the game and should understand OBrien’s offense. The Texans have a lot of speed at the receiver position and I think they will burn the not so good defensive backs of the 49ers. The Texans have a position battle on the defensive line and I think these ends will be looking to penetrate the line and put pressure on whoever is quarterbacking for the 49ers. Kaepernick is nursing a sore shoulder and I doubt he plays here which puts Blaine Gabbert in which I don’t know if he or Thad Lewis is the proper fit for this Chip Kelly offense. It will take time for this Chip Kelly offense to operate properly. The Texans looked sharp in the Red Zone in their practices against the 49ers a few days ago which is also another positive for this game as we need scores in the red zone and I like what I saw watching video from these joint practices.
A storyline for this game is Ken Whisenhunt being the offensive coordinator for the Chargers this year and was the Head Coach for the Titans last year. Also, Zach Mettenberger, will make his return to Tennessee as he got traded to the Chargers in the off season. (DC Lebeau should be able to carve up a gameplan to lockdown Mettenberger). Derrick Henry has been a workhorse in training camp for the Titans. The Titans revamped their offensive line in the off season and because the line is trying to develop chemistry, coach Mike Mularkey said it may remain in the game for up to a half. I think that is an advantage for the Titans here. The Titans have a veteran backup QB in Matt Cassel who can manage the game for sure. I think the Titans do enough damage in the first half and 3rd quarter that the lead should be big enough of a cushion for them to hold on to heading into the 4th quarter. The Titans have a big battle going on with the receivers (veterans Andre Johnson and Harry Douglas) are two that are fighting for a job and we could possibly see these guys playing late in the game. The Titans 1st Year coach Mike Mularkey will want to win this game, guaranteed, especially when Whisenhunt is going to be on the Chargers sideline. The Titans are 15-2 at home in the Preseason their L17 games. They won both home games last year, scoring 24 and 27 points. Look for them to win this one too. Dick LeBeau is the DC for the Titans and he will be able to dial up some plays that should cause some turnovers when Mettenberger is in the game for the Chargers as Mettenberger played for Tennessee and LeBeau knows how to plan for him.
I like the Roughriders here as they are being undervalued by the betting market as they are looking for revenge from last week when they lost 35-15 at Calgary. This is a bit of a flat spot for Calgary as they are fat and happy getting their revenge against B.C two weeks ago then this satisfying win at home last week. The game was closer than what the final score indicates and I look for the home team to keep this one close.
Mike McCarthy doesn’t care about winning in the preseason having lost and not covered in five of their last 6 preseason openers. On the flip side, HC Hue Jackson for the Browns his making his coaching debut and he wants to start it out with a win guaranteed. The Browns have the huge edge at quarterback also as Robert Griffin III will play a lot and they have Josh McCown to back him up. Austin Davis also has NFL experience. For the Packers, Aaron Rodgers and Brett Hundley are not expected to play and the Packers offensive line is also banged up. So they will be playing two undrafted rookies at quarterback and some backup offensive linemen. I look for Cleveland to be the more motivated team here fighting for starting positions and they have the far better back up depth.
Play on Game #259 New Orleans Saints (8/11/2016 7:30 PM EST)
I like the Saint here getting points. This is Preseason so this is not the Tom Brady show that really cares about winning. It hasn’t been determined if Brady starts this game, but I don’t think he will be out there if the first string offensive line is not on the field. The Patriots start off the season with Jimmy Garoppolo as their QB for the first four games. While the Pats want him to be ready for Week 1, I don’t think Garoppolo plays a whole lot here as Belichick can’t afford for Garoppolo to get injured. When the 2nd string offensive line comes in, rookie Jacoby Brissett should come in and he should struggle and throw at least one interception if not two and I wouldn’t be surprised if he makes some other costly rookie mistakes. Belichick has to get both of these QB’s ready in case of Garoppolo does get injured.
For the Saints, I like their depth at quarterback. Drew Brees should play 1 or 2 series which should lead to a touchdown which will get us rolling here. Luke McCown and Garrett Grayson are 2nd and 3rd string. Grayson played in all 4 preseason games last year and had his best numbers in week 1 of the preseason against the Ravens. I will note the Saint went 0-4 in the Preseason last year, but only lost their first two games by 2 and 3 points. The 2 point loss was vs the Patriots, who they are playing here. The Saints had a 15-0 lead in that game after the 1st quarter. McCown and Grayson both played in this game completing 11 of 19 passes for 1 TD and 0 INT. McCown completed 68% of his passes in the Preseason last year (3 TD/ 0 INT). He made one start in the regular season vs the Panthers and completed 81% of his passes. McCown is a 13 year veteran who should lead the team to a few scores. Grayson is not going to do anything special, but he should be able to manage the team. Sources say Grayson has been improving in practices over the last week.
The Saints bring in Dennis Allen as the new DC as defense will be a point of emphasis this preseason. The Patriots have some new receivers and it will take the offense time to be in sync unless they just want to run the ball and the Saints should be able to contain the run and those 2 TE sets.
The Saints might have the deepest set of receivers this season and that should help them here as well as some other key battles going on with the offensive line, running backs and cornerbacks and we should see a motivated Saints team fighting for their jobs.
The Saints are 4-1 ATS their L5 in Wk1 of the Preseason while the Patriots are 1-3 ATS their L4 in Wk1. The Saints are 7-2 ATS their L9 Preseason games as an underdog. Digging deeper, they are a PERFECT 7-0 ATS as a road underdog of 3 or more points in the preseason. The last 3 Preseason meetings between the Saints and Patriots have been decided by 3 points or less (1,2, and 3 points).
Play on Saint Louis Cardinals Run line -1.5 Runs(Saturday, 7:15 PM EST)
I am expecting for the Cardinals to take care of business, quick fast and in a hurry tonight. First the Cardinals got leadoff hitter Matt Carpenter back in the lineup as he had been on the DL since July 6th. They also got Brandon Moss back as this will be his fifth game back with the team. Moss has 18 HR’s on the season. These are two important pieces to the Cardinals lineup.
The Cardinals bullpen got a much needed rest after Garcia went 8 innings last night. Carlos Martinez gets the start tonight and he has a career 1.08 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP in 16.2 IP. Martinez gave up 3 runs in the first inning Sunday afternoon but settled in nicely after that. Martinez has a FIP under 4.00 in 6 of his last 7 home starts. HE has only given up more than 3 ER in 1 of his L11 starts.
Roberto Hernandez gets the nod for Braves basically out of force. Better known as Fausto Carmona, Hernandez is nothing more than a minor league pitcher these days and is making a spot start here Aaron Blair was a late scratch. Carmona has been mediocre in AAA and I expect the Cardinals to get after him here.
Jerry Layne is the home plate umpire and Carmona has a 4.97 ERA (6K/5BB/3HR/16 Hits in 12.2 IP) with Layne behind home plate.
Atlanta’s Freddie Freeman is 1-for-20 the last 5 games which is more bad news for the Braves.
The Cardinals are 16-4 in Martinez’s L20 starts on 5 days rest as he has a career 2.28 ERA on 5 days rest, compared to a 3.86 ERA on 6+ days rest and a 3.80 ERA on 4 days rest. The Cardinals are 12-4 in their last 16 games with Layne behind home plate.Braves are 1-5 in their last 6 games with Layne behind home plate. The Cardinals have won all four meetings vs the Braves this year. Before last night’s 1-0 win , the previous 3 wins were by 3, 5, and 10 runs.
The defending champion Edmonton Eskimos haven't looked so good this season. They come in struggling to hold opponents out of the end zone giving up 30 and 37 points at home the past two weeks as 5 and 9.5 point favs losing both straight up. But, If I made moves based on how teams performed because of previous results I'd be broke. In football, teams are never as bad as they look from a week ago. When we get a team, Edmonton, getting shredded by offense's and when this happens, more times than not the focus of the team the following week is defense. We get that here and because of their recent effort and overall record (2-3 second last in their division) comes line overreaction. Edmonton goes from a -9.5 point favorite to a +4 underdog in a matter of one week, a 13.5 point line swing. If you recall Ottawa got their revenge week 1 in Edmonton after last years Grey Cup lose so the revenge card cannot be played here. The quarterback play for Edmonton has been consistent. On the road in any football environment, it takes very good QB play to win and we get that here with QB Mike Riley. With this game only being their second road game of the season a change in scenery can be a good thing for a team with back-to-back home losses. We get line overreaction because of previous results, a good QB on the road and now the defending champs not overvalued in a spot getting points for the first time this season. Edmonton wins.
Play on Seattle Mariners on the Runline +1.5 Runs (Friday, 2:20 PM EST)
This is a daytime game and I like the Mariners +1.5 runs with a day of rest, a 73% covering rate (24-9) as a road dog on the runline, and with Iwakuma on the mound as the Mariners have won his last five starts and are 3-0 in his 3 interleague starts this season. Jon Lester takes the mound for the Cubs and he is fade material right now with a 10.13 ERA for the month of July. Command has been a serious issue and pitching deep in games is also an issue.
While the Mariner’s are coming off a loss, they haven’t lost consecutive games since the All Star Break. We don’t need the straight up win as a 1 run loss will do us fine, but I like to note their ability to bounce back off a loss. The Cubs are coming off back to back wins, and have lost the following game both time since the Break coming off back to back wins.
The wind is expected to be blowing in at 10-12 MPH which could lead to a lower scoring game, giving more value to the +1.5 runs here.
Play on Milwaukee Brewers Runline (Saturday, 7:10 PM EST)
I took the Brewers last night and unfortunately took the loss. I liked the pitching matchup and felt we were getting great value with the 1.5 runs. Tonight, I feel the same way with a similar matchup and will go back to the well one more time. Last night’s score was 5-3, but the Cubs didn’t do much damage after scoring 4 runs in the first two innings. The Brewers had more than enough chances to close the gap to at least one run, but left too many on base. I think they will have chances again tonight and need to convert.
John Lackey takes the mound for the Cubs and the Cubbies are 1-5 his L6 starts and he has a 6.30 ERA for the month of July. That one win only came by 1 run as it’s now been 8 starts since the Cubs have won one of Lackey’s starts by more than one run. He faced the Brewers earlier this season and again, the theme for tonight’s game is ‘one run’ and that was a one run game.
Zach Davies takes the mound for the Brewers and the Brew Crew are 8-4 his L12 starts, winning 66% of the time. Three of those four losses have been only by one run, which is what we are looking for if we don’t get the straight up win. This will be the Cubs first time seeing Davies this season which should serve to his advantage.
The Brewers are 18-9 this season +1.5 runs as a home underdog. After last night’s loss, the law of averages favors them along with the fact that the Cubs have been money burner’s on the road. After last night’s win, they will get some added public support that might push this line up higher, increasing our value here. This is a night game and I would advise waiting closer to game to try and get the best number possible.
Play on Washington Nationals -1.5 runs on the Runline (Saturday, 7:05 PM EST)
This line is super high I know and we are even laying juice on the -1.5 runs but after handicapping this game, I feel it is worth it and a must bet. Max Scherzer has a FIP of 2.01 or lower in 6 of his last 8 starts. He is pitching much better and had historically been a guy that comes on strong in the 2nd half of the season.
Edwin Jackson gets the start for the Padres. Jackson was throwing a no-hitter thru 7 innings last Sunday, but did walk 5 batters. Jackson is not a good pitcher and I really can’t see him repeating the same performance. He simply is not that good and that’s why he has played for 13 different teams since 2003. There is a theory here I will put in place as I look to fade a pitcher coming off a no-hitter with the reasoning being that the pitcher has a hard time repeating such a strong outing along with the fact that the pitcher can have too much adrenaline flowing and nerves, While JAckson did not throw a no-hitter, it was close and certainly close enough for a bottom tier guy like himself.
The Nationals have lost two straight home games and they know they can’t afford to lose this game with Scherzer on the mound and a bullpen that has a 92.3% conversion rate at home. Lay the -1.5 runs as I'm looking at a 6-2 final score.
Your classic buy low sell high that I look for and preach. You got your number 1 team in the league the Ottawa Redblacks vs the winless last place Roughrider team. The Roughriders are 0-3, missing their starting QB Durant and are getting compared to in the local media to last years team that started 0-9. All this creates a buy low opportunity with a Roughriders team that doesn’t have any public market appeal right now. Ottawa on the other hand does, coming off a trip to the Grey Cup last year has caught the public bettors eyes with its 3-0-1 SU 3-1 ATS start. However, with their stock high this is a bad situational spot for them tonight as it’s their 4th road game in 5 weeks and have a divisional home game next week with rival Toronto. Buy low sell high mixed with situational spot betting and this is a solid play that meets my betting criteria. Now let’s cash it!
Play on Milwaukee Brewers Runline +1.5 Runs (Friday, 8:10 PM EST)
A straight up win would not surprise me here, but we will have a lot of angry square bettors that have been getting their pockets shredded backing the Cubs over the last month roughly. When I continued to break this game down, I locked in on the Brewers +1.5 runs. Sure it’s nice to cash in with an underdog the size of the Brewers tonight, but this is a game where I feel it’s worth it to lay a very small amount of juice and have two ways to win our wager (Either Straight Up or lose by 1 run). That brings me to Jimmy Nelson who is 2-3 in his 5 team starts this year as a home underdog, but a PERFECT 5-0 on the runline as ALL 5 of these games have been decided by 1 run, even the two wins. One of these was a 2-1 loss to the Cubs when he was matched up against John Lackey and the line was Cubs -172. Now 2 month later and with Jason Hammel on the mound (who is worse than Lackey) and a Cubs team that has only won 10 of their last 27 games, we are seeing a line that is not far off from the -172 in May. What I am seeing is a constant inflated line for the Cubs and a continued chance for a profit in fading the Cubs.
Jimmy Nelson I mentioned takes the rubber for the Cubs. Nelson’s number’s over his last six starts are much better than Hammel’s. Nelson has a 3.74 FIP and only a .313 opponents SLG%, compared to a 5.63 FIP and a .488 opponents SLG% for Hammel in this same time frame. Nelson’s splits this year are huge as he has a 2.45 ERA at home holding opposing hitters to a .227 average. After a rocky June, Nelson is under the radar for sports bettors and now in July he has a 2.37 ERA in 3 starts. He hasn’t given up a homerun in his last 6 starts.
The Cubs are only 2-4 in his 6 starts this season as a road favorite, including a 5-3 loss earlier this year at Milwaukee. The Cubs had lost his previous six starts before beating a regressing Ranger’s team last week. Run Support?? Or how about a lack of as Hammel has not gotten more than 4 runs of support in his last seven starts.
The Cubs are a money burning -$1,077 this season ($100 player) when they face a right handed pitcher. They are -$499 on the road this season also so we are on the right side in this game before it starts as I don’t want any part of that.
The Brewers are a respectable 23-22 at home this year. They in fact play much better ball in Miller Ballpark. When taking them +1.5 runs is when it really pays off as the Brew Crew is 18-8 (69.2%) this season as a home underdog. They went 2-1 SU AND 3-0 ATS (+1.5 Runs) in an earlier series vs the Cubs this year.
The Brewers bullpen is ranked 4th over the last 14 days in ‘WAR’ (Wins Above Replacement). They have a 3.32 ERA in this time span compared to the Cubs 4.30 ERA over the last 14 days.
10* Brewers Runline +1.5 Runs
*Bonus Play*
Play on Detroit Tigers Moneyline First 5 Innings (Friday, 8:10 PM EST)
When handicapping this game, taking the Tigers to be winning after the 1st five innings makes the most sense and is a play that I feel strongly on. When handicapping the 1st five innings, I am basically eliminating the bullpens and factoring the starting pitching only along with the offenses.
Detroit has a huge pitching edge tonight with Michael Fulmer on the rubber. The Tigers have been watching Fulmer’s pitch count, but he will be efficient and get through 5 innings. The Tigers are 8-2 in Fulmer’s 10 road starts this season. Looking at the first five innings, he has been light’s out his last six road starts only allowing a TOTAL of 2 runs. Yes, in his last six road starts, he has shut out five of the six teams through the first five. Looking at his last 10 starts overall, Fulmer has only given up a total of 5 runs through the first 5 innings, which is an average of ½ run per 5 innings.
Thew White Sox will have Jacob Turner on the mound who is nothing better than a minor league pitcher that will get a few spot starts during the season. This is only his 2nd start of the season after getting injured and only completing 9 innings in AA in 2015. He had 18 starts in AAA this season and has a 4.71 ERA with a 1.44 WHIP and a .290 opponent batting average in these AAA starts. Last week, the Angels smashed him for 7 runs in 4 innings of work. The Angels had a 8-1 lead after 5 innings. Six of the 7 hits Turner gave up were either labeled as medium or hard hit balls. I can’t see him out dueling Fulmer here in any possible way.
Since the All-Star Break, the White Sox have scored more than 1 run through the first five innings only twice out of seven games.
Play on Seattle Mariners on the Runline (Friday, 7:07 PM EST)
I love the value with the Seattle Mariners on Friday night. First looking at the pitching matchup, James Paxton is a pitcher that is on my list as being better than what his ERA suggest. Paxton’s FIP is a 3.24 this season while his ERA is sitting at a 4.56. His velocity is up 3 MPH on his fastball from 94 MPH to 97 MPH this season. He has great strikeout ability and the BlueJays are a team that tends to strikeout a lot. I would not describe them as a team that is patient at the plate.
We are taking the 1.5 runs tonight and laying some juice as I feel this is the much stronger play, based on this year’s trends by both teams. The Mariners rank 2nd in the Majors at 21-7, covering 75% of the time when getting +1.5 runs on the road. This is huge at they have had 10 losses on the road decided by 1 run. Toronto is an even 21-21 when laying-1.5 runs this season as a home favorite. They will have Marco Estrada on the mound and he is on my fade list for the 2nd half of the season as he is long overdue for regression as his FIP has risen every month this season along with his HR/FB%.
Estrada is a huge flyball pitcher and has been prone to giving up the longball. His FIP is a 4.12 compared to his 2.93 ERA which signals for a regression. Five of his last six starts have resulted in a FIP of 4.04 or greater. He is holding hitters to a .193 batting average with balls in play (BABIP) which is extremely tough to do for the course of a season. His last two starts the number has rise to a .286 and .300 with balls in play and this is going to lead to his regression. Just to give you an idea, Madison Bumgarner has a .259 BABIP and Arrieta has a .260. Clayton Kershaw has a .262 BABIP. It’s just a matter of time before all of these fly balls land in the outfield for extra base hits or out of the ballpark for a home run.
Estrada is 0-2 with a 7.36 ERA vs the Mariners in 11 IP. He has 6 walks issued to only 9 K’s in these two starts. He gave up double digit fly balls and issued 3 walks in each start. Nelson Cruz is 4-for-5 with a HR vs Estrada and I see him having a big night here. He has 9 career home runs in the Rogers Centre, the 6th most out of all MLB ballparks for him. Adam Lind of the Mariners makes his return to the Rogers Centre and knows this ballpark very well. Robbie Cano also has plenty of experience in the Rogers Centre (80 games). Kyle Seager is hitting a career .349 in 65 AB’s at the Rogers Centre, his 6th best ballpark to hit in.
The Mariners bullpen has maintained an ERA below 3.00 on the road this season.
Toronto is only giving Estrada 3.38 runs of support at home this year, having only scored more than 4 runs once.
The Mariners are 4-0 in Paxton’s L4 starts vs the AL East.
Play on Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5 Runs on the Runline (Thursday, 7:05 PM EST)
I like the Pirates to win this game and in turn the series tonight against the Brewers. For the Brewers, they will have Matt Garza on the rubber who has been terrible his six starts this season. The Brewers are 0-5 in his five road starts.
Liriano takes the rubber and is 2-0 with a 0.87 ERA in 3 starts when umpire Gerry Davis is behind home plate. The Pirates went 12-1 in Liriano’s 13 starts after the All-Star Break last year. He has been much better this year at PNC Park and this is where I trust him the most. His FIP is a full 2 runs lower at home and home run rate is way lower. The Pirates are 3-1 in his 4 career home starts vs the Brewers.
Right handed hitters are batting .365 with a .407 wOBA vs Garza in his road starts. With the Pirates having a lineup that is heavy with right handed bats, I feel they score enough runs here to win by two or more runs and I feel laying the -1.5 runs here is worth it in this spot.
The Brewers are 0-8 in game 3 of a series their last 8. The Pirates are 4-1 in Game 3 of their last five series. So we have a team that has been able to finish off teams and win series’ while the Brewers can’t.
I like this Lakers squad with two super sophomores in Larry Nance and D'Angelo Russell, along with Brandon Ingram from Duke who is the team's 3rd leading scorer in the Las Vegas League, but don’t forget about sophomore Anthony Brown along with 7’1 center Ivica Zubac.
They beat New Orleans by 20 then beat the 76ers by 1 point, but the 76ers have a squad the features 4 guys that started for the NBA team last year and Ben Simmons.
This game means something for Luke Walton, who is now the coach of the Laker’s coming over from Golden State. Jesse Mermuys is the assistant who has been implementing Walton’s system to the new kids. Mermuys is great in developing young players and has a feel of a defensive minded coach.
The Warriors squad was lead by 6’0 guard in their first Vegas League game, followed by McCaw who is a below average rookie from UNLV that needs some size on him. The Warriors appear to be undersized and under-experienced and under-talented in this game.
I don’t mind laying the -1.5 runs here. In fact, I would lay -2.5 if I had to as I see this game being a complete mismatch. Of course the pitching matchup catches my eye with Jose Fernandez who might be most dominant home pitcher in the big leagues. The Marlins are 28-3 in his last 31 home starts. 19 of those 31 have been by two or more runs which is 68%. That is a respectable percentage but I feel it increases more as the moneyline is so high here indicating that the Fish are a very big favorite. This will be only his 4th start when listed as a -200+ home favorite. So the fact that the Marlins won a bunch of these games by 2 or more runs when listed as a favorite of 130 to -170 speaks a lot.
Fernandez is coming off a rough outing against the Braves and this is a perfect bounceback start for him against a poor Reds team that strikes out a lot which should go hand-in-hand with the fact Fernandez is striking out 13.1 batters per 9IP.
Dan Straily for the Reds has a 6.07 FIP his last 3 starts. He has given up 3 HR while only striking out 9 batters and has walked 8. That is not good news against a Marlins lineup that is underrated and is now even more lethal with Giancarlo Stanton hitting four home runs in the last couple of game. I believe Stanton is a huge factor here and can give us the insurance runs we need.
The Reds have lost six of Straily's starts. ALL six of these have been by two or more runs. I haven’t mentioned the Reds bullpen that is the worst in baseball that be counted on to give up a run or two in the late innings.
Play on Pittsburgh Pirates on the Runline +1.5 runs (Friday, 7:05 PM EST)
If there is a series that the Pirates want to win, it is this one here before the All-Star Break against their divisional rivalries that have gotten the best of them this season. Things have changed though since these teams last met on June 17-19. The Cubs swept the Pirates and made it 8-1 in 9 games vs the Bucs this season. Since then the Pirates are 11-6 and just reeled off seven straight wins before losing yesterday to the Cardinals. They lost 5-1 but the hits were ven at 6 a piece. The Cubs on the other hand are 5-12 since that series against the Pirates and obviously are struggling with their starting pitching, but the offense also while the Pirates have a talented lineup and they have been producing more lately.
So I like the value here with the Pirates. At current -110 to -115 odds, we have two ways to win this game and I feel that is great value as we have the team that is playing much better ball right now supported by the above records. The argument here can be the pitching matchup which is Jake Arrieta vs Francisco Liriano. When Arrieta pitches, this is a time that squares love to load up and put their chips on him. Me, I prefer to stay neutral but am looking for what I see as value from either side. Today, the Pirates +1.5 runs is the play.
Arrieta has cooled off most notably his last two starts, but going back to his last six starts, his numbers have been worse. The first red flag is the number of walks. He has issued 11 walks in his last 3 starts. He has only struck out 14 batters in his last 3 starts which is the lowest 3 game combined strikeout total for him this season and the same can be said for the walks.
But looking more, I see more of a red flag as this 3 game combined low strikeout/ high walk total is the worst combined total in his last 60 starts, dating back to 2014. So I am looking to fade here.
Francisco Liriano ‘s ERA is way up this season. It was a 3.38 ERA/ 3.59 FIP last year to a 5.34 ERA/ 5.33 FIP this season. So there are no red flags here for me. I feel Liriano can only get better as I feel he has hit a ceiling. For a guy whose K/BB ratio has almost been cut in half from last year, I feel there is only one way to go and that is to get better.
I am encouraged by his home peripherals being better at home than on the road. His FIP is a 4.11 at home, compared to a 6.56 on the road. So I expect him to be better at PNC Park tonight. He is coming off a start at Oakland where he walked only one batter, which is encouraging and he only had to throw 88 pitches as he will have a fresh armm here. He can usually throw 95-100 pitches.
Another factor is fatigue here as the Pirates played an afternoon game yesterday and got to get some decent rest. The Cubs on the other hand are playing their 23rd consecutive game and didn’t finish last night’s extra inning game until 1:30 AM EST.
I think the Pirates have a great shot of winning this game and bringing back a nice profit, but in weighing my options, I feel there is no need to be greedy as my confidence lies with the +1.5 runs here. The Pirates are 43-17 (71.7%) since 2013 as a homedog +1.5 runs on the runline. That stat definitely helps me make my decision as we have a team that has performed very well in this spot. This is the 2nd best percentage +1.5 runs at home in this time span.
The Pirates bullpen has been solid and one I trust right now. They were put in a jam yesterday and couldn’t get out of it, but other than that, quality work out of the bullpen the last 8 games.
Liriano is 7-3 his last 10 team starts as a homedog since 2009 and 8-2 (+1.5) on the runline. That is good for a 80% winning clip. I spoke of value. The biggest homedog Liriano has ever been was a +158 in 2012 when he pitched for the lowly Twins.
Play on Winnipeg Blue Bombers (Thursday, 7:00 PM EST)
The Blue Bombers who have opened the season 0-2 after looking just awful against Montreal in Week 1 and worse for three quarters against Calgary in Week 2. I say three quarters because the Blue Bombers were down 36-7 in Calgary last week after three and put up 15 in the fourth while holding Calgary to zero. Winnipeg actually came within one pass of covering at the Stamps 20 yard line in the final seconds, but missed and ended up losing 36-22. With a 4th quarter push like that it builds confidence with a team which can carry over into the next week. With an 0-2 SU and ATS start to the season, Winnipeg’s stock is the lowest of all nine CFL clubs, which in turn creates an inflated number and makes me a buyer.
The Blue Bombers team has been torched on the ground giving up 321 rushing yards and 3 TD's in two games. The Blue Bombers team has been torched through the air giving up 641 yards and 3 TD's through two games. It has been ugly and the players have been taking a lot of heat from the local media and fans because of it. They are taking even more heat from their coaching staff. We see this all the time in college and the NFL and that's big response to a humiliating effort and that’s what is likely to come from the Bombers defense here on Thursday. The Blue Bombers do have an offense as well with QB Drew Willy completing 73% of his passes thus far and a respectable 105.5 passer rating.
We get a desperate team with nothing to lose, an inflated line and a teams stock that is the lowest in the league to buy in on. The Hamilton Tigercats have shown over and over again that with Jeremiah Masoli at QB, they cannot be trusted to win.
Play on Seattle Mariners +1.5 runs Runline (Tuesday, 8:10 PM EST)
I like the Mariners +1.5 runs tonight. When taking a team with +1.5 runs, I first have to feel like winning the game is a good possibility and I think that the Mariners have a good shot of winning here, by looking at the starting pitchers, current offenses, bullpen along with long-term and short term trends.
The Mariners are 19-6 (76%) this season on the runline (+1.5) runs as a road underdog. This is the 2nd best winning percentage in the Majors in this role.
Taijuan Walker takes the mound tonight and he has top of the rotation stuff and has not allowed more than 3 ER in his last four starts vs the Astros. In 10 starts against the Astros, he is averaging 10 strikeouts per 9 IP which is very good.
Dallas Keuchel takes the mound for the Astros and while the Stros have won his last three starts, two of those came on the road, and he has not been as good nor has had as good of luck at home this season. The Astros are only 2-4 in his 6 home starts this season. The two wins have only been by one as the Astros are 0-6 when laying the -1.5 runs in Keuchel’s six home starts this season. The Astros are 0-2 in Keuchel’s two starts against the Mariners this season and he has an ERA over 4.00 in his L4 starts against the Mariners dating back to last season.
Keuchel’s FIP/xFIP is higher than his ERA in his last three starts which is a red flag for me and a fade signal.
The Mariners bullpen has been sharp over the last seven days with a 1.91 FIP/ 2.66 xFIP with a 33.3% strikeout rate. The Astros have a strong bullpen also, so I will give neither team the edge here, therefore resorting back to the starting pitching and which offense I believe will be better for this game.
It’s the Mariners in my opinion as they are hitting .289 the last seven games scoring 5.4 runs a game. Seattle has scored at least 3 runs and is averaging 7 runs a game in Walker’s six career starts in Minute Maid Park.
Houston has only 12 hits combined in their last two games, scoring only a total of 3 runs.
Play on Minnesota Twins +1.5 runs on the Runline (Sunday, 2:10 PM EST)
This line opened at Texas -160 and 89% of the moneyline bets are on the Rangers today, making them the most popular play on the card, but yet this line has went down about 20 cents to Texas -140. This is a strong reverse line movement and I still feel there is value with the Twins today. Texas has not been this big of a road favorite all season long, which tells me that the linemakers are starting to give the Rangers too much respect. The Rangers are not that good as their record in my opinion and regression is on the way. Their bullpen is getting killed as the starting pitching has been spotty. Hamels takes the mound today and he has been solid, Kyle Gibson for the Twins has been solid in his 3 career starts vs the Rangers only giving up 4 runs in three starts and the Twins have won two of those games. Gibson is coming off his best start of the season and appears to be hitting his stride after coming off the DL.
The only thing keeping me off of the money line here is Cole Hamels as the Rangers have won 23 of his last 28 starts. Therefore, I will take the +1.5 runs here and lay the small amount of juice and we now have two ways to win this game. For whatever reason, the home team has won 75% of the last 16 games that umpire Iassogna has called and 74% of the L62 games he has called on Sunday’s.
Calgary is the superior team here, no question about it. That is why they are the favorite but my I feel they should be laying more points than this. The reason they are not?...A week 1 loss at B.C….So the oddsmakers over-adjusted the line and now we can take advantage. Looking back at the the Stampeders loss which was their first opening season loss in five years, they had a double digit lead in the 2nd half, before the home team of B.C. came roaring back. Now Calgary is at home and I expect for the momentum of the crowd on the special ‘Canada Day’ pave the way. Keep in mind that their opponent, the Winnipeg Blue Bombers, are one of the worst teams in the CFL and looked terrible in Week 1 and their lack of offense will be the reason they get blown out this game. They only won 5 games last year and four of those were against Saskatchewan and B.C who both had losing records.
Calgary swept Winnipeg last year in the three game series. They have won 12 of their last 13 home games against the Blue Bombers.
The Stampeders have a long term track record of responding well off a loss. Calgary has covered 77% of their last 27 games off a straight up loss. The last time the Stamps lost back-to-back games at any point in a season was Weeks 2 and 3 of the 2012 campaign, an amazing 70-game run of being able to rebound after a loss, and it’s the longest streak in Canadian professional football history. Calgary was the highest scoring team in the CFL last year and they have the much better offense over Winnipeg
There is also a chance that Calgary’s starting safety Joshua Bell will play this game after rolling his ankle in preseason along with center Pierre Lavertu, an added bonus for us if either plays.
Play on Houston Astros -1.5 runs Runline (Friday, 8:10 PM EST)
I like Mike Fiers pitching for the Astros in this one. Fiers has been much better pitching at home this year as his splits are huge. Opposing hitters have only a .297 weighted on base average at home vs a .400 wOBA on the road. He has a2.66 career ERA in 12 starts in Houston. Fiers hasn’t allowed more than 2 ER at home in his last four home starts and I am expecting another strong outing against a White Sox team that is without Melky Cabrera who was leading the team in batting average.
Miguel Gonzalez isn’t a good pitcher and never has been. Toronto just tagged him and is facing an Astros team that is red hot, swinging red hot bats.
The Astros have the 3rd best ranked bullpen is the last month compared to the White Sox who have the worst.
We have the much better pitcher, the much better offense, the much better bullpen currently, and the team playing much better baseball currently.
I like Wales plus the ½ goal here as they have not lost to Belgium in the last 3 matches, including a 1-0 win last year. The other two matches were draws. Belgium has not scored more than 1 goal in the last 3 matches against Wales. I feel there is more pressure on Belgium here and they would rather play just about anyone else other than Wales as they know they have struggled lately against the Welsh. This will be an open game and Wales can take advantage, something Hungary could not do, so don't get too caught up in that 4-0 score. The Belgium defense is suspect and I believe it will be exposed here. Belgium's Thomas Vermaelen will be suspended for this game which is another blow to an already soft Belgium defense that was hit by injuries before the tournament started. Wales captain Ashley Williams suffered an injury last game but he is expected to be just fine for this game, so no worries there.
I like Iceland plus the goal here. A draw or a straight up win by Iceland would not surprise me either, but those two wagers are more of a long shot, especially the straight up win, so I am betting Iceland +1 goal as I see either a 1-1, 2-1 or a crazy 2-2 game. England has not impressed me at all and they play a conservative game and goals will be hard to come by. Iceland has an organized defense and can hit England on the counter attacks.England’s only win in the group stage was a last minute goal against Wales. All of their strikers have been unimpressive. Iceland might not have a top tier scorer, they have a playmaker in Gylfi Sigurdsson who can compete with the best in the world. A nice angle to this game is that Iceland’s co-manager Lars Lagerback is unbeaten in six career meetings against the English (two wins and four draws).Lagerback is expected to step down or retire from the Iceland team after this Tournament and the players will be rallying behind him.
10* Iceland +1
(Iceland +600 is also worth a small wager here in my opinion.They are a long shot, but we haven't seen any upsets in the first 6 games in the round of 16, and this could be it. I would recomend making a 1* play on Iceland Moneyline +600, but I expect to get the BIG CASH with our 10* play on Iceland -1.
Play on France Point Spread -1 Goal ---Sunday, 9:00 AM EST)
France playing as the host country beat Romania 2-1 and Albania 2-0. They tied with the Swiss in the final but were very unmotivated so that served as no surprise to me. Republic Of Ireland beat Italy in the 85th minute to advance but that was a game where the Italian sat 8 starters so there is no need to put too much stock in that game as they played the game of their lives and a let down is in effect here. Ireland will fight hard here, but they are way over-matched. I think we see a game similar to when they lost 3-0 to Belgian. . It is safe to say France will win this one in regulation by the score of 2-0 or 3-0.
Play on Kansas City Royals on the Runline +1.5 runs(Saturday, 7:15 PM EST)
I had the Royals last night and was very confident with them. However, they were losing 9-0 after the first inning as Volquez had the worst start of his career. I mentioned yesterday the Royals have the best home winning % in the Majors. They are 25-9, winning 73.5% of the time at home.
Coming off a loss at home and playing their next game at home, just like today, they are a PERFECT 6-0 on the season as they have not lost consecutive home games this season.
The Royals are 25-12 (67.6%) since last season as a homedog. The Houston Astros are 24-36 (only 40%) as a road favorite since last season.
So , we have a very good baseball team at home, the defending world series champs, catching money against an Astros team that is a losing proposition on the road when a favorite.
Now, as the trends and my instinct are strongly in the Royals favor that they win this game, I want to take the +1.5 runs a lay the juice as I think laying the extra money, opposed to taking them at +115-120, is well worth it.
The umpire for this game is Mark Ripperger who is a very good ‘under’ umpire. The under is 11-3 in his games behind home plate this season. So while a lower scoring game is a very good possibility, a close game is also a very good possibility with a lower score in mind. Home underdog of +110 to +130 are 2-1 this season in Ripperger games.
Jarrod Dyson is expected to make his return to the lineup tonight also for the Royals which gives their outfield a big boost. He was hitting .318 with a .464 OBP in his AAA rehab games with 4 stolen bases. The Royals will enjoy his speed back on the bases as well defensively in the outfield.
The Astros are 0-5 in Mike Fiers last five road games as a road favorite.
While the Astros won 13-4 last night, the game was played even (4-4) after the first inning. The Royals still had 11 hits compared to 14 for Houston so the final score was a bit misleading due to 7 walks issued by the Royals pitchers. I am either looking for the Royals to win this game straight up or play the Astros tough to a one run game.
Play on Chicago Cubs Run Line (Saturday, 4:10 PM EST)
The Cubs got the monkey off their back last night and now it’s time to kick some ass this afternoon. John Lackey has only given up three runs in 2 career starts versus the Marlins. Lackey is 4-0 in 5 day starts this year with opposing batters only hitting .176.
Anthony Rizzo who leads the Cubs in home runs and RBI was out of the lineup last night BUT is expected to be back for this game. 1B Ben Zobrist is expected to miss this game, but he is hitting under .200 for the month of June.
Umpire Bill Welke will be behind home plate and Lackey has recorded a total of 20 strikeouts in his last two starts with Welke behind home plate. He has allowed 2 ER in his L3 starts with Welke behind home plate.
Paul Clemens gets the start for the Marlins and no, he is not related to Roger. In fact, Clemens has 6 career starts under his belt and carries a 1.54 WHIP/ 5.50 ERA while he has also pitched out of the bullpen. He has given up 24 home runs in only 103 IP which is ridiculously high. Three of those home runs came last week in his first start of the season.
While the Marlins did score 4 runs last night, they only had two hits. The Marlins are only averaging 3 runs a game their last five games. I got the Cubs scoring about 6 runs today and think we see a final score in the 6-2 or 6-3 range.
I like the Yankees to win this game rather easily this afternoon. Michael Pineda gets the start and his advanced numbers are much better than his ERA as he has been the victim of some bad luck. Pineda continues to strike batters out (10.2 per 9 IP) and he has not allowed a walk in three of his last five starts. The Yankees 1-2-3 bullpen were rested before closing things out last night. They retired all nine Minnesota batters without giving up a hit. I look for the trio to seal the deal for Pineda here. Ervin Santana gets the call for Minnesota and the Twins are 2-11 in his 13 starts this season. He has a career 5.96 ERA vs the Yankees with a 1.51 WHIP. Looking closer, Santana is 0-4 with a 8.14 ERA pitching at the New Yankee Stadium. The Twins are just a bad team in general and find themselves in a tough spot this afternoon. After the Yankees knock Santana around, they should have success against the Twins bullpen that has a 5.64 ERA on the road. They have a 5.93 ERA over the last 14 days overall, either at home or on the road.
Play on Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 runs on the Runline (Friday, 8:10 PM EST)
Toronto is playing with a day of rest and playing arguably their best ball of the year. They are facing a left handed starter in Carlos Rodon who has been subpar over the last two months. The Chicago White Sox did everything possible to lose yesterday against the Red Sox. This simply is not a good team right now. Toronto got swept by the White Sox earlier this season, but that was when the White Sox were playing good and had Sale and Quintana in two of those games at the Rogers Centre. The Blue Jays were playing bad at the time also, but now have won 66% of their last 27 games. Toronto is averaging 6.9 runs a game their last seven games. They average 5.0 runs a game vs left handed starters on the season. Toronto has the best team ERA on the road in the Majors. The White Sox have the 2nd worst offense in the A.L. behind Oakland.
Toronto is 5-0 in Sanchez road starts this season. All five of those wins have come by two or more runs with an average margin of victory of 5 runs. Sanchez ranks 10th in the Majors in run support at 5.79 runs a game.
The White Sox are 3-10 in Carlos Rodon’s 13 starts this season and only 2-4 at home. Three of those four losses have come by two or more runs.
32 of Toronto’s 40 wins this season have come by two or more runs. That is a 80% clip as when they win, they win easily. And that’s exactly what I think will be the case tonight.
Play on Texas Rangers +1.5 runs (Friday, 8:05 PM EST)
I like the Texas Rangers +1.5 runs tonight as they have the American League's most wins (47), have the 2nd most home wins in the Majors (26), and are 14-4 (77.8%) at home this season when inserted as a home underdog. I initially wanted to take the Rangers straight up on the money line, but looking closer, I much better like the value with the +1.5 runs here, as we have two ways to win this game at roughly a -110 price.
David Price takes the mound for Boston. Price always carries a ‘high price’ and therefore can offer value for the opposing team in the right situation. This is the right situation tonight. Price has struggled vs Texas for his career.
The Rangers knocked him for 6 hits and 3 runs in the playoffs last year in 3 innings of relief.
The Red Sox are simply not playing good baseball right now. The offense has been sluggish, the starting pitching sub-par, and the bullpen has 4 blown saves in the last 30 days. Before that, they tagged him for 5 runs in a 5-3 loss in Game 1 of the Playoffs. Price has a 6.54 career ERA in six regular season starts inside of the Rangers Ballpark.
The Red Sox are 1-3 in Price’s 4 starts this month. They have not given him more than 2 runs of support, another reason why I like the +1.5 runs here. Price has given up at least 1 homerun in his last 7 starts as well.
Injuries: Red Sox outfielder Chris Young strained his hamstring yesterday and got put on the DL. Travis Shaw (3B/OF) is listed as questionable while OF Brock Holt and both Catchers (Swihart and Hanigan) are all still on the DL.
Nick Martinez is making his first home start of the season, filling in for the injured Yu Darvish, Lewis, and Derek Holland. Martinez has made one career start vs the Red Sox. That was last year and he gave up 2 runs only in 7 innings of work. Martinez threw 112 pitches in that game, so that gives me confidence he can go fairly deep here. I think he holds the Red Sox to 3 runs tonight.
Martinez has made 11 starts in AAA this season. He allowed 3 runs or less in 8 of those 11 starts. He gave up 3 runs in his first start last weekend against the Cardinals.
Texas swept the Red Sox last year in Arlington, winning two of those games as a home dog.
Wind: There is expected to a wind of 10-12 MPH that will be blowing in which might help some balls stay in the park. I feel that is also good for the +1.5 runs here in possibly a lower scoring game than expected.
I bet the Cavs to win this series when they were down 3-1 and my feeling is still the same, that they will get the job done tonight in Game 7. The Cavs have the momentum and have made the proper adjustments throughout this series to now have the upper hand. The Warriors miss Bogut dearly as Ezili and Varejao are nothing down low and Harrison Barnes is playing terrible, like he is scared to play under this spotlight. LeBron and Kyrie have embraced the spotlight and have had Kevin Love take a back seat and play a much more minor role in the offense.
All six games of this series has been decided by double digits. Cleveland has fought back from a 3-1 deficit to force a game 7. This will be a highly watched game, possibly the highest rated Finals game ever. I believe we are in store for a close game that will go down in history as one of the greatest. I like the points here with Cleveland.
Play on Houston Astros -1.5 runs on the Run line (Saturday, 4:10 PM EST)
I don’t lay -1.5 runs in baseball often. And it’s very rare for me to do it when having to lay juice with the -1.5...Today is a day I am confident in doing so though.
A big handicap here for me is not only the starting pitching, but the bullpen in this game. Not only does the Reds have a historically bad bullpen, but they have had to go into extra innings in two of their last four games. Their bullpen has now pitched 21.2 innings the last four days, compared to only 8.1 innings for the Astros.
The Reds bullpen on the road is a 6.46 ERA and a 1.75 WHIP. The Astros bullpen at home is a 2.20 ERA with a 0.94 WHIP. Starting pitcher Dallas Keuchel is having a harder time getting wins this year and I know that, but he has a clear advantage in this game along with a much fresher and effective bullpen to seal the deal.
Keuchel is in good form right now with 23 strikeouts to only 3 walks this month. One key advanced stat I look at it ‘SIERA’. His is a 1.75, 2.46, and a 1.92 his last three starts. This more accurately reflects what is true ERA should be. Also, Keuchel’s groundball percentage in two of his last three starts is the best it’s been all season. He has allowed under 10% of hit balls to go to the opposite field also in his last three starts, the best percentages for him all season long as well.
The Reds will call on rookie Cody Reed who is making his first start in the big leagues because of injuries to their starting rotation along with the Reds using Alfredo Simon in relief the other night. While Reed has a decent ERA in the Minors, he has given up 5 homeruns in his last four starts. The Astros are a power hitting team. You can also only expect him to throw in between 80-90 pitches so the Red’s overworked and ineffective bullpen is going to get beat up here.
While the Astros have never seen Reed pitch before obviously, the Reds have never seen Keuchel pitch. So I give Keuchel, the far better pitcher over 23 year old Reed, the large advantage here. The Reds are only hitting .225 as a team their last seven games. They are only hitting .238 on the season vs. left handed starters.
Umpire Vic Carapazza will be behind home plate today. He called a game last month when Keuchel was on the mound and the Astros got a 4-2 win. Keuchel had zero walks and five strikeouts that game, making arguably his best start of the season.
Injuries: The Houston Astros have ZERO players listed on their injury report which is quite rare for this time of the season in Baseball. It’s time for a fully healthy roster to perform to their capabilities.
Play on Minnesota Twins on the Runline +1.5 runs (Friday, 8:10 PM EST)
The Twins have won has a home dog with Pat Dean on the mound against two other powerhouse AL East teams in the Red Sox and the Blue Jays. The Yankees don’t have near of an offense that either one of those teams have and the Yankees are a terrible team against left handed pitchers, as Dean is .
To keep things in perspective, the Yankees have only won 12 more games than the Twins. They have only won 41% of their road games. On the season they have only won 36% of their games vs a left handed starter. That’s mostly in part due to their lack of offense that only averages 3.5 runs a game on the road.
Other than a 10 run outburst at hitter friendly Coors Field, the Yankees have scored 4 runs or fewer in their last six games.
Masahiro Tanaka is only getting an average of 3.62 runs of support a game. The Yankees are only 3-3 in his 6 road starts this season. Tanaka’s strikeout numbers are way down his last five starts as his swinging-strike percentage is way down. It was in the 12-17% range for the month of April, and is now hovering in the 6-9% range over his last five starts.
I am not going to put the Twins on a pedestal here, but I think they have enough offense to get the job done, possible score the upset, or at least keep this a one run game.
The Yankees have never seen Pat Dean before, giving the pitcher the slight edge. The Yankees bullpen has been overused and they carry a 5.40 ERA on the road with a 2-5 record. The Twins bullpen has a 3.54 ERA at home.
Play on Kansas City Royals on the Runline +1.5 runs(Wednesday, 8:15 PM EST)
I like the Royals at home Wednesday night. While I do feel there is a strong possibility that they win this game straight up, I like the play on the Runline much better. We now have two ways to win this bet. The difference is we are going to have to lay some juice, but when weighing my options, short and long term trends are strong and in our favor.
The Royals are a long term 40-15 (72.7%) as a homedog on the runline +1.5 runs. Fast forward to this season as the Royals are 8-3 (72.7%) in this spot.
Kansas City has won four straight games now breaking out of their funk after losing eight straight. Kansas City is 21-7 at home this year, winning 75% of the time in the blind. They are 6-1 when a homedog of less than +125, which fits the situation for tonight. A win here would be lovely , but we can lose this game by one run and still win our bet.
The Indians are a sub-par 8-12 (40%) as a road favorite -1.5 runs this year. The Indians are 0-4 in Corey Kluber’s last four road starts vs the Royals.
Corey Kluber for the Indians is only 3-6 in his last 9 team starts vs the Royals. When digging deeper, he is 0-4 in his last four road team starts vs the Royals.
Kansas City is 2-0 SU this season (vs the Indians) as a home dog and are 8-1 ATS (+1.5 runs) the last nine times they have been plus money at home vs the Indians.
Ian Kennedy has struggled lately for the Royals, but he pitches MUCH better at home with a 1.46 ERA/ 1.17 WHIP and the Royals are 3-1 in those four starts.
The Royals bullpen at home as a perfect 10-0 record this season. They have a 2.52 team ERA at home. The bullpen has converted on 77% of save opportunities at home as well.
The Indians offense has cooled back off, only hitting .220 as a team the L7 games. They have scored 3 runs or fewer in 6 of their last 10 games.
Bryan Shaw, a reliever for the Indians, has given up 6 hits (2 HR), and 4 runs in his last 3 appearances.
The Royals are 8-0 in their last 8 home games overall.
Play on San Francisco Giants on the Runline +1.5 Runs (Friday, 10:15 PM EST)
I like the Giants getting +1.5 runs here. A straight up win wouldn’t surprise me, but with such a low total (5.5), a low scoring game is expect between these two pitchers and a one run game is a very good possibility. While Clayton Kershaw might be the best pitcher in the Majors, Johnny Cueto is right behind him this season and the Giants have won his eight starts and 11 of his 12 starts this season. He has allowed 2 ER or less in his last six starts. Cueto has a 1.67 ERA in night games this season. At AT&T Park, he has a 31 K/ 4 BB mark. I look for a strong outing from Cueto. The GIants have won both of his starts this year vs the Dodgers also.
For Kershaw , this will be his 3rd time facing the Giants this season. The Giants had enough success in the first two meetings to score 2 and 3 runs off of him. If they score 3 runs tonight, that very well could be enough to win this game, or at least cover the +1.5.
While Kershaw has a 1.46 ERA on the season, he honestly hasn’t faced a lot of good offensive teams….Teams like the Braves 2x, Mets 2x, Padres 2x, Reds, Blue Jays. I just feel like this line is inflated based on Kershaw’s numbers this season and that a possible slight regression could be coming, or at least a slip up in one game.
For value, this is the largest home underdog Johnny Cueto has been since his rookie season in 2008. The Giants are 5-4 this season as a team +1.5 runs when a homedog.
Another reason I like the Giants here is because the Dodgers offense stinks, ranked 26th in the Majors in weighted on base average. I just can’t see them scoring more than 3 runs here. I strongly feel the Giants get at least two runs across the plate, if not more. Let’s take the +1.5 runs and get the cash!.
Play on San Diego Padres on the Run Line +1.5 Runs (Friday, 8:40 PM EST)
With the Padres covering 74.1% of the time as a road underdog (+1.5) while the Rockies only covering 23% of the time (3-10)this year as a home favorite (-1.5), I am betting on the Padres +1.5 runs Friday night. I saw a stat last week that said the Padres have won about 90% of Cashner’s career starts when they score 4 or more runs for him. Considering that the Padres bats are hitting the best they have all season and playing with a day of rest, I like them here.
Cashner has allowed 3 ER or less in his last nine starts. He is 2-0 vs the Rockies this year and the Padres are 4-0 in his L4 starts vs the Rockies. The Padres are 6-3 overall vs the Rockies this season (won 2 of 3 in Coors Field).
This will be the Padres 3rd time seeing Jon Gray of the Rockies this season. I think the 3rd time will be a charm as a lot of times, it takes hitters a few times to see a pitcher to get used to their stuff. Jon Gray has a 6.65 ERA at Coors Field and a 7.44 ERA there is nine career starts.
Play on LA Dodgers Run Line -1.5 Runs (Wednesday, 10:10 PM EST)
When laying -1.5 runs in Baseball, I first need a definite pitching mis-match. We have that here with Kenta Maeda for the Dodgers in a solid groove. I have always been high on Maeda, who is a Japanese superstar that has a strong 4 pitch repertoire to keep hitters off balance. The Dodgers have won his last 3 starts now, and in the 6 games the Dodgers have won with Maeda on the mound this year, ALL 6 have been by two or more runs. One of those wins was a 4-1 victory at Coors Field, a much tougher place to pitch and Maeda went 6.1 innings and only gave up 3 hits to the Rockies.
The Dodgers play better ball at home. After winning last night’s game with a walk off home run in the bottom of the ninth, they have won 79% of their last 14 home games, and have won 78% of their last 18 home games vs. the Rockies. 79% of those wins have come by 2 or more runs against the Rockies, so we definitely have percentages on our side.
Colorado will start Chris Rusin and the Rockies have lost his last four starts, ALL by two or more runs. One reason is bad pitching, which is expected from Rusin who is 11-23 with a career 5.08 ERA and a 1.52 WHIP. The other is a lack of run support as the Rockies have only scored 1.5 runs a game for him his last four starts.
Rusin has given up a double digit amount of hits (10,11, 13) vs two other NL West teams this season (Giants 2x, DBacks). He gave up 8 hits in 5.1 IP his last start vs the Dodgers (9/27/15). Rusin has given up AT LEAST two walks per start in his last 10 starts, dating back to last year. There should be ample opportunity for the Dodgers to score runs here.
The Dodgers bullpen has a 2.33 ERA at home this year and a 87.5 percent conversion rate on saves.
Play on San Jose Sharks -1.5 goals (Monday, 8:05 PM EST)
I am going somewhat against the grain here in Game 4 of the Stanley Cup Finals. All three games have been decided by one goal, with two games going into overtime. The Sharks finally swand momentum their way in Game 3 and came away with the overtime win. Now Game 4, I look for an increased amount of momentum in favor of the Sharks.
It took San Jose some time, but they figured out how to beat the Penguins. Now I think it will take some time for Pittsburgh to make the adjustments. After tying the score up 1-1, the Sharks started to play their hockey. The game was played in the corners, behind the net, and along the half-wall and the open ice disappeared.
While Pittsburgh outshot the Sharks 42-26 for the game, San Jose had the much better quality shots. San Jose is the bigger and tougher team and out hit Pittsburgh 47-to-17. I think now San Jose has the blueprint for success and I am calling for their highest scoring game of the Stanley Cup tonight.
San Jose has now won 11 of the last 12 home meetings vs the Penguins. Five of those eleven wins have come by two or more goals. That is a little less than 50%. I like to play percentages. Given the fact they won the last game by one goal only, I like to play that the 50% factor comes into effect and they win this one by two or more goals. Six of those eleven wins the Sharks have scored 4 or more goals.
All data and information on Sports Thunder provides news matter and entertainment to a worldwide audience. Note: US Citizens: Activities offered by links to other sites may be deemed an illegal activity in certain jurisdictions and is not intended to be used in violation of local, state, federal or international law's.
