Miami (Fernandez) @ San Diego (Ross)------I like the Padres as a valuable homedog in this game vs. the Marlins. While I have been high on Jose Fernandez this season, I like the Padres tonight on the Run Line +1.5. While a lot of bettors on are on the Marlins bandwagon, let's remember they are only 2-10 on the road this season, scoring 2.7 runs a game and hitting .215 from the plate.
Fernandez is coming off a career high 114 pitch victory vs. the Dodgers. This guy is a legit CY Young contender but I truly feel if the Marlins do win this game, they will not win by more than one run. This will be only his 3rd road start on the season and it will be his first out on the West Coast. His worst start of the season came on the road as he gave up 6 ER @ Philly on 4/11 and didn't make it past the 4th inning. He did face the Padres earlier this season and didn't allow a run in 6.2 IP, but that was at home where he is a much better pitcher.
For the Padres, they will call on Tyson Ross tonight and this will be many of the Marlins first time facing him. I like this to be to his advantage as I feel with a lot of young pitchers. It is hard for hitters to know what to expect from a pitcher when they have never faced him before. Ross has made 4 starts at home this season and has a 1.67 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP. This guy looks like magic at home. The Padres are 3-0 in his last 3 home starts and he has not allowed more than 1 ER in these starts. This was against Arizona, Detroit, and San Fran which all have better offenses in my opinion than Miami, especially as far as batting averages goes on the road. It should be noted that the Padres swept the Marlins last year at home and are now 8-3 the last 11 meetings in San Diego.
If the Padres offense was just a little bit better I would play them on the money line, but because of their struggles. I love their chances to keep this a one run game if they do not win straight up. We will have to lay a small price to get the +1.5 runs in this game but it will be well worth the pay off.
In closing, Fernandez will be pulled around 100 pitches which will probably be around the 7th inning. The Marlins bullpen has a 5.30 ERA on the road this season with a 1-6 record. The Padres bullpen on the other hand is stellar with a 1.95 ERA and a 92% conversion save rate this season as they have converted 11 of 12 times. I will equate this into my decision as well and it just tells me this underdog tonight is being overlooked by the public and we are in a good position to cash in.
Play on #962 San Diego Padres on the Run Line +1.5
Indiana @ Washington------The public is on the Wizards in Game 3 and I disagree as I like the defensive minded Pacers as a valuable underdog. Indiana is 0-2 ATS in this series as their offense as still not clicked all the way, but I do like the way they tightened up on the defensive end. The Pacers held Washington to 5-for-21 from the 3 point line in Game 2 and Hibbert finally responded with 28 points and 2 blocks in his best playoff game of the series.
What I like about the Pacers is their defense. Indy is the best defensive team in the NBA and they were still able to win in Game 2 despite Stephenson and George having another bad shooting game from the floor. Look for these two guys and David West to use their momentum building win in Game 2 to carry over in Game 3. The Pacers need to win a game in Washington to claim homecourt advantage, I this is the game they do it.
It should be noted that Washington lost Game 3 in the first round vs. the Chicago Bulls and this is the same type of situation. The Pacers were only an underdog 15 times in the regular season and went 8-7 ATS. While this stat does not give us an edge, my point is it is rare you will get a defensive minded team like Indiana as an underdog. I clearly feel they have momentum as Hibbert's big game just might be the turning point for the Pacers.
I don't see homecourt as being a very big advantage in this series and I feel like Paul George will get his offense going in this game. Let's take the points in this Game 3. I don't think we will need them as I have Indiana winning this game straight up, but just in case these 4 points are added insurance.
Brooklyn @ Miami----- I like the Nets in this game as a valuable underdog. I had a small lean on them in Game 1, but laid off for good reason. I am not going to miss the pay-off tonight as the Brooklyn 'Vets' will keep this game close throughout and I would not be surprised to see an upset.
The Nets had covered all 4 games in the regular season and went 4-0 SU vs. the Heat. They were in the Game One on Tuesday, but the Heat warmed up and took over in the second half. So everybody said Miami is on a mission and out to prove something. Yeah, Yeah, Yeah. They got what they wanted and that was a win. Now all the pressure is off of them and they will not be as motivated for this game and I do not think they will put together a full 48 minutes of a solid effort tonight. The Heat shot 56% from the floor and I expect this number to drop to about 47-49% in this game which will allow the Nets to hang right in There. These Brooklyn players have been in this situation before. Paul Pierce, Garnett, Joe Johnson, D. Williams; all these guys have been here, and dome that. They are now united on one team and I like them to come together to put up a valiant effort in Game 2.
The Playoffs are about changes. While the Heat attacked in Game 1 for the full 48 minutes, look for the Nets to be the team to be on the attack in Game 2. The only Brooklyn starter to get on the free throw line was Livingston and the Nets only made it to the line 17 times for the whole game, making 10-of-17. The Heat thought they had Pierce and Garnett buried before in the playoffs but these veterans will not go away. Look for Brooklyn to go toe-for-toe vs. Lebron and Co. tonight
Trends:
Brooklyn is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a SU Loss of more than 10 points.
Miami is 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 home games vs. a team with a winning % of less than .400
Washington @ Indiana-----I like the Pacers tonight to come away with an easy double digit win at home in Game 1. After dodging a bullet in the first round the Pacers have the momentum heading into this game. They are fresh off a victory on Saturday and have encouraging sign heading into tonight's game vs. the Wizards. Hibbert finally woke up and made some noise in Game 7 scoring 13 points with 7 rebounds and 5 blocks.
Unlike Atlanta, the Wizards don't have any big guys that can shoot the 3, so Hibbert can be comfortable and play in the paint and be a force. Indiana won both regular season games this season vs. the Wizards easily, 93-66 and 93-73. I look for Hibbert and David West to have big games tonight and in this series. Cj Watson is back healthy and is a valuable backup point guard that can distribute the rock.
The Wizards come into this game with a full 6 days rest and I expect them to be rusty playing this first game on the road. I give the Pacers the advantage in this spot as they will be more in a rhythm and it will be evident. The linesmakers have given the Wizards too much respect after they got done beating up on the Bulls. I will note that both regular season games played @ Indiana, we saw the Pacers as a 9 and 10.5 point favorite. This 4 point spread is the same number they laid when playing the Heat earlier this year. Sure, times have changed and the Pacers went on a struggle after the All-Star Break and the linesmakers have had to do a lot of adjusting. The Pacers were without a backup point guard and now they have Watson, this team will not go on those long scoring droughts. Evan Turner is another guy that can give instant offense and let's remember the Pacers are holding opponents to only 88.5 points a game at home. When the game is on the line, the Pacers are the better free throw shooting team and this should be accounted for as well. Let's look for a final score in the 96-83 range tonight as I advise a STRONG 10% MAX BET.
Trends:
Wizards are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games playing on 3 or more days of rest.
Dallas @ San Antonio------I like the Mav's in this game for a lot of reasons. Dallas is playing their best ball of the season currently and they are not intimidated by the Spurs obviously. After the Spurs had beaten the Mavs in 9 straight meetings, Dallas took offense of this and opened up this series almost with a steal in Game 1. Nevertheless they covered the spread and they now are 6-0 ATS in this series. Game 1 the Mav's were a 9.5 point dog and the linesmakers have had to drop this one down to 6.5 for Game 7. I have no problem with them doing this because I still do not see this being a game that is decided by more than 3 or 4 points.
All of the pressure is on the Spurs as they are the #1 seed trying not to get upset by the #8 seed. I remember when the Mavs got upset by Golden State as a #1/#8 matchup about 7 or 8 years ago. This is the same situation where the #1 seed is just in a bad spot playing a team that is clearly not playing like a #8 seed. I will note that Dirk is 4-0 all time in Game 7's and I feel this is an important stat to note as I feel Dirk will light it up today and be a big part of why Dallas covers this spread. The Mavs have the momentum heading in this game after rallying back in the 4th quarter in Game 6 outscoring the Spurs 37-30 led by Monta Ellis's 12 points in the 4th. Dejuan Blair used to play for the Spurs and I feel this is important to note as he will bring energy off the bench and play with a chip on his shoulder. Blair got suspended for Game 5 and came back in Game 6 with high energy off the bench. I like the Mavs bench much better than the Spurs in this game. Harris is a valuable backup point guard that has a solid mid range jumper and he is a facilitator. Vince Carter still has some 'Vinsanity' left in the tank as he has already shown by hitting the game winner in Game 3. Carter is instant offense off the bench and Dejuan Blair is high-energy off the bench.
While Popovich is one of the best coaches of all times, HC Carlisle is outcoaching him in this series and I like Carlisle to outcoach him in Game 7. Carlisle made the adjustment to sit Brandan Wright who was getting killed on pick and rolls and put Blair in off the bench. Blair responded with 10 points and 14 rebounds. Carlisle has found a lineup that is most frustrating to the Spurs and I have to believe this same lineup will be successful this afternoon. Carter, Blair, and Harris all logged more minutes than Shawn Marion in Game 6 which tells me that these three guys + Dirk and Ellis will be the main 5 on the court today and I love this lineup.
5 of the 6 games in this series have been decided by 6 points or fewer. The one that was decided by more than 6 points was a Dallas 21 point blowout win @ San Antonio in Game 2. The Spurs thought this would be an easy first round win vs. a team they had owned. Now all the pressure is on them and they are in a world of trouble. Dallas has nothing to lose and they will play like it today. I like them to grab more loose balls, make more three pointers, and also force more turnovers today. This is a NO BRAINER and we will take Dallas with the points as an upset would not surprise me at all, therefore making the points that much more valuable.
Brooklyn @ Toronto----I like the Brooklyn 'Vets" to cover the spread this afternoon. Brooklyn has the momentum going into this game after rallying back in the 4th quarter in Game 5, then being in full control in Game 6. HC Jason Kidd made a change in game 6 by inserting Kyle Anderson in the starting lineup which helped spread the floor because of respect for his perimeter jump shot. While Shaun Livingston has a great mid-range jumper, he does not have the range and defenders have been sagging off of him and being able to double on Garnett in the post. I expect Kidd to use this same starting lineup today.
I call the Brooklyn Nets the 'Vets' for a good reason. They are a veteran team with a ton of playoff experience. Garnett and Pierce have played their fair share of game 7's and know the importance of every possession. Deron Williams is a seasoned veteran as well along with Joe Johnson. Joe Johnson is one of the best clutch shooters in the Eastern Conference and if the game is on the line I trust Johnson to make the shot. The Nets have a tall, long, and athletic bench with Blatche,Kirelenko, and Teletovic who are all 6'9" or taller. Kirelenko is also a veteran who uses his length to disrupt defenders and he is a hustle player that is going to get after loose balls.
Including the playoffs, these two teams have now played 10 games this year. The result is each team has won 5 games, with Toronto scoring 767 points and the Nets scoring 766 points (1 point differential). I make note of this to emphasize the value of the underdog in this game. I can see Brooklyn outplaying Toronto's starting 5 this afternoon and I see their bench being more productive. In the 3 playoff games played @ Toronto, Brooklyn won one by 7, lost one by 2, and lost one by 5. If we take that average it comes out to be a zero point differential which again favors the underdog.
Neither team has shot the three ball particularly well in this series, but I give the edge to the Nets in this game with Anderson getting the start. Joe Johnson and Paul Pierce require more attention and this will leave Anderson open for some crucial shots that I believe he will knock down.
I will note the Brooklyn's head coach Jason Kidd has a ton of playoff experience as a player and I believe he knows how to get his team focused for this game. I also believe he will coach a better game than the Raptors head coach, utilize timeouts better, and if the game is on the line, I trust Jason Kidd to draw up a game winning play. Let's take the points this afternoon with this veteran Brooklyn team as I have them winning the game straight up, but I certainly do not see them losing by more than 2 points as this will be a close game throughout.
Memphis @ Oklahoma City-----I like the Thunder to win this game convincingly now that they are back at home and well-rested. I will give them the momentum after taking a 2-1 lead in this series with an overtime win in Memphis on Saturday.
Durant and Westbrook are coming off a sub-par 11-for-45 shooting performance with 12 turnovers. I have to expect a much better game from both of these guys tonight. Reggie Jackson saved the day with 32 points off the bench and I like this as it gives Jackson the confidence he needs.
Perkins has done an excellent job putting a body on Randolph and making his job a tough one holding him to 36% shooting from the floor. Ibaka has also been superb on the defensive end.
The playoffs are all about making changes and I feel the Thunder have had enough time to make the necessary changes after going into overtime vs. the Grizzlies for the last 3 games. Reggie Jackson will be playing with a world of confidence and look for the Thunder to go small and play Westbrook and Jackson at the same time.
It should also be noted that Memphis is a team that is only 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 road games, even after their win vs. the Thunder in Game 2 while the Thunder are 9-3-2 ATS in their last 14 home games.
Philly (Kendrick) @ LA Dodgers (Haren)-----The Phillies are only a good underdog when facing lefties only this season. Tonight they will face Dan Haren who is looking solid and the Dodgers are giving him enough run support to win games. The Phillies are overmatched in this game tonight, especially with Kendrick on the mound who has a 6.84 career ERA vs. the Dodgers with a 1.66 WHIP. He faced the Dodgers twice last season and got rocked in both. In 12 IP, he gave up 18 hits with only 3 K's. I know the Dodgers are licking their chops in this game as the Dodger's current roster is hitting .314 vs. him. Puig is 5-for-6 with a double and a triple and Matt Kemp is 6-for-15 vs. Kendrick. The Dodgers are hitting right handed pitchers at a much higher rate this season than southpaws.
The Dodgers will have Dan Haren on the mound who has a 20/2 K/BB ratio this season and is in great form. In his last start vs. the Phillies, Haren went 7 innings, struck out 7 and walked none while giving up 2 ER. In three night starts this season, Haren is 2-0 with a 1.40 ERA and a 0.78 WHIP. The Dodgers are 4-0 in his 4 team starts this season and are giving him 6 runs of support a game.
The Phillies are now 0-7 in Kendrick's last 7 road starts while the Dodgers are 6-1 in their last 7 during game 4 of a series and are 7-1 in their last 8 Thursday games. Look for the Dodgers to open up a can of whoop ass on the Phillies tonight and cruise easily.
Chicago White Sox (Quintana-L) @ Detroit (Scherzer)------I like the White Sox in this game as Detroit laying -200 is absurd at this time of the year. While I like the White Sox to win this game, I feel the safer play is to take tem +1.5 on the Run Line as a 3-2 final score is a possibility. The Tigers are 2-2 in Scherzer's team starts this season only giving him an average of 2.5 runs of support a game. Scherzer has looked good this season with a 34/7 K/BB ratio but this is just too much value to pass up in this afternoon game. The White Sox are swinging the bat and scoring runs this season.
In Scherzer's last 3 starts vs. the White Sox, he has given up 11 runs off 16 hits and 6 walks. The White Sox are 2-1 in Scherzer's last 3 starts vs. them. For Santiago, he is 2-0 career vs. the Tigers with a 2.70 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP in 4 starts. The White Sox are 3-1 vs. the Tigers in these starts. The loss was in a 1-0 game where he got no run support. The Tigers are struggling as a team vs. lefties this season, including a loss Monday night against the Southpaw John Danks. With Hunter and Cabrera struggling from the plate and Alex Avila striking out almost at a 1:2 ratio, I expect a low-scoring game this afternoon that favors the underdog. I will note that the White Sox are averaging 6.4 runs a game in day games this season compared to 4.4 for the Tigers. Overall, the White Sox are leading the AL in runs scored, tied for second in homeruns, and are also second in SLG%.
Minnesota (Gibson) @ Tampa Bay (Price-L)----The Twins will have the best pitcher on the mound tonight, Kyle Gibson. Gibson has a 0.93 ERA in 3 starts this season holding hitters to a .179 BA. The Twins are 3-0 in his 3 starts as they have given him plenty of run support at 8 runs a game. Going up against Price tonight, I don't expect them to score 8 runs, but I do expect them to work some magic and score their fair share. Gibson has been dominant against right handed hitters as they are 1-for-29 vs. him remarkably. The Rays have a heavy lineup of right handed batters and this should be a nice spot for Gibson tonight. The Rays are struggling to score on a consistent basis and this has a 'one run game' written all over it.
The Twins are averaging 5.4 runs a game, behind Chris Colabello who has 20 RBI on the season. He is hitting .375 vs. lefties on the season and is on fire hitting .500 over the L7 days. Joe Mauer can always be a threat in the lineup as well and the current Twins roster is hitting .293 as a team vs. David Price .
Price is coming off a rough outing vs. the Yankees and has now had two shaky starts at home this season. He has a 28/3 K/BB ratio but guys are making contact against him as he has given up 29 hits now in 26.2 IP. In 3 home starts, opponents are hitting .329 off him and he really has not distinct advantage when facing lefties or righties. Dating back to 2010, The Rays are 1-4 in Price's last 5 team starts vs. the Twins as they have only scored an average of 2 runs a game in these 5 games.
We will take the Twins on the Run Line +1.5 tonight just in case they happen to lose by one run.
Memphis @ Oklahoma City-----I like the Thunder to win this game by double digits and to make a statement going up 2-0 in this series before they travel to Memphis. The Thunder had a 20+ point lead in game 1 before taking it easy and letting Memphis back in the game closing the lead to two points before the Thunder pulled back off for the 100-86 win.
The Thunder hold the HUGE advantage at the point guard spot. They have Westbrook, Reggie Jackson (best back-up point guard in the NBA), and then the veteran Derek Fisher as well. These guys combined for 36 pts,19 rebs, and 10 assist in game 1. They are at least 9-10 points better than Memphis at the point guard position. Mike Conley is Memphis only true point guard and now that Nick Calathes is suspended, the Grizzlies are lacking depth at the guard position. Not only are the lacking depth, they struggle to shoot the ball from the perimeter and do not have a chance in this series. The Grizzlies were 2-for-11 from downtown in the first game while the Thunder actually were not much better going 4-for-16. Well, The Thunder shoot the three ball much better and after Westbrook went 0-for-5 in Game 1 from behind the arch, I look for him to knock down a couple big three pointers tonight. Durant will be the MVP this season and he continues to play like it . I feel he will not be denied this Playoff season and playing in front of the homecrowd, Durant is going to get his 30+ tonight. Caron Butler coming off the bench for the Thunder is also huge. He played 30 minutes in Game 1 and played like a veteran. Butler knows his role on this team and his a guy that can knock down the jumper, and get some rebounds. Butler poses a mismatch for Memphis if they try to let Prince check him. Then in the paint, Perkins, Adams, and Collison all split time to give the 'Center' position a 'Three Headed Monster' look. I like this move by HC Scott Brooks as the Grizzlies were forced to play Gasol 44 minutes in Game 1 and he will get fatigued in this game while the Thunder have enough depth to keep their big men fresh.
Looking at trends, the Grizzlies have been terrible on the road to end the regular season as they are now 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 road games, 3-12-2 in their last 15 vs. the Western Conference, and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 vs. the NBA NorthWest. Oklahoma City is now 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 home games, and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 after scoring 100 points in their previous game and are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Head-to-Head, the Favorite is now 4-0 -1 ATS in the last 5 meetings and I like Durant and Company to roll BIG in this one.
Atlanta @ Indiana----I like the Hawks tonight as they are clearly the team playing with more confidence currently. These teams split out 2-2 on the season and the most recent was a 107-88 butt-whooping the Hawks put on the Pacers just a few weeks ago.
Indiana has some many distractions right now and are under a tremendous amount of pressure. Hibbert's game has fallen apart and with the Hawks center Pero Antic a guy that can shoot the three ball, he can pull Hibbert outside and that can be a key advantage for the Hawks in this series. Hibbert as we know was benched towards the end of the season and has been documented as saying that his teammates are some 'selfish dudes'. The Pacers are also struggling at the point guard position as George Hill is not a true point guard and I like Teague for the Hawks to dominate this series. Teague is an All-Star caliber point guard that plays big in BIG games and is a big key to the Hawks being ranked 2nd in the NBA with 24.8 assist a game.
This series also has another big advantage for the Hawks. They are a faster paced team and the #2 team in the NBA attempting 27 three's a game, compared to the Pacers who are ranked near the bottom in three point attempts. All of Atlanta's players can shoot the three basically and Kyle Korver is a streaky guy that can be a factor tonight. Indiana is ranked 29 in offense since the All-Star Break and if they can't score, they can't win. This is a generous amount of points we are getting tonight and I wouldn't at all be surprised if the Hawks won this game straight up.
Atlanta also has Paul Milsap who is a double-double guy that has playoff experience and can score around the basket. It will be a good matchup going up against David West, but it's one that Milsap can win or least hold his own. Also, let's not forget about the veteran Elton Brand or Lou WIlliams who is instant offense off the bench.
In closing, this is an Indiana team that is under a lot of pressure. The Hawks have nothing to lose and I expect them to play like this tonight. The Hawks are a team that can spread the floor and put the Pacers in vulnerable positions, pulling West and Hibbert out on the perimeter and Teague will have open driving lanes to the basket.
The Hawks finished the season on a 5-0 ATS run while the Pacers finished the season on a 2-9 ATS run their last 11 home games. Let's grab these generous points with Atlanta tonight as they cash this one easily.
Arizona (Miley-L) @ La Dodgers (Greinke)------The Dodgers are 5-0 this season vs. Arizona and therefore overpriced in this game here tonight. This is a pitching rematch from last week when Miley gave up 5 ER in 5 IP. Now in two starts this season vs. the Dodgers, Miley has given up 8 ER in 2 starts vs. them. I like him to toss a better game tonight though and the Diamondbacks will give him run support vs Greinke who has a 4.96 career ERA vs. Arizona with a 1.48 WHIP. He only gave up one run last week vs. Arizona, but looking closer, Greinke gave up 8 hits but just was fortunate to strand some baserunners.
This is a divisional rivalry and this is the Major Leagues. I do not expect Miley to keep getting beat by the Dodgers. Arizona can hang with the Dodgers in this series as they have the bats in the lineup to compete. Miley is Arizona's best pitcher and his 1.28 WHIP in 4 starts this season tells me he should be in position to toss a quality start tonight. The Dodgers are only hitting .223 this season vs. lefties. I will also note that the Dodgers bullpen have already blown 3 saves this season and this looks to be a tight game tonight.
Arizona is 4-1 in Miley's last 5 starts as a road underdog of +151-+200 and are 8-2 in Miley's last 10 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Dodgers are 0-4 in their last 4 games vs. a left handed starter.
Miami (Koehler) @ Washington (Strasburg)-----I like the Marlins on the Run Line this afternoon in what should be a close game. Koehler will be on the mound for the Marlins and is looking to continue to build off a promising spring and a solid start against the Padres last week. Koehler has seen the Nationals twice last year, going 1-1. He will have some run support today as the Marlins are hitting .287 on the season (2nd in MLB) and are averaging 5.5 runs a game. Stanton is hitting .588 with RISP and with Yelich at the top of the lineup, I like this Marlins offense. What I like more is that SS Hechavarria has been moved back to the bottom of the lineup. Hechavarria is hitting .368 on the season and makes the bottom half of this lineup more efficient.
For the Nationals, they will call on Strasburg who has a 1.74 WHIP in his two starts this season. In 3 of his last 5 starts vs. the Marlins he has given up 3 or more runs. Stanton is 8-for-21 career vs. Strasburg. Ozuna is 1-for-2 with a 3 run triple. With an upcoming series against the Braves this weekend, I will also say the situation favors the Marlins this afternoon as they look to avoid the sweep.
Trends: Marlins are 4-0 in their last 4 after losing the first two games of a series. Nationals are 0-6 in Strasburg's last 6 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Dallas @ Utah-----Dallas comes into this game tonight as they can smell the playoffs. The linesmakers have inflated this line tonight knowing that Dallas is in a tight race for the 8th seed and the public will be playing on Dallas. The Mav's might win this game, but they WILL NOT cover. Dallas travelled to Utah last month on 3/12 and got a 108-101 win as a 4.5 point favorite. This was a close game as the Jazz actually had the lead late in the 4th quarter before Dallas ended the game on a run to give them the win and the cover. Tonight, they will be happy to just get the win, trust me. They don't care about covering and I like the Jazz to rebound off their 28 point loss on Sunday to Golden State. Utah does not have any injuries to deal with and I know these youngsters will be playing hard on their home court.
This is Dallas' 4th road game on their road trip and they have two playoff teams on deck with the Spurs and the Suns at home. This is a game where they just are not fully focused and do not bring their 'A' game. Dallas just not play good enough defense to be such a high priced road favorite. They are allowing opponents to shoot 48% from the floor their last 5 games but have been fortunate to outscore their opponents. The Mav's have been living by the three-point shot and playing in the altitude tonight, a lot of those shots will not be falling. I went back to 2009 and this is the largest spread the Mav's have ever laid on the road when playing in Dallas.
Look for Utah to play inspired ball tonight and put up a fight. A straight up win would not surprise me, but I am fully confident that the Jazz cover this inflated spread with ease.
Trends: Dallas is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Tuesday Games Utah is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 Tuesday games. Utah is 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Dallas is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU Win.
UConn vs. Kentucky-----This write-up will not be as in-depth as usual, but I love Uconn to win this game tonight. Let me remind you UConn is 3-0 all time in Championship games. They have also beat Kentucky 3 of 4 times so history is on their side. The UNDERDOG is also 4-0 ATS in these games so things are shaping up well for UConn tonight. The last time these two teams played was in the Kemba Walker era when the Huskies won 56-55. Napier and Niles Griffey were freshmen in that game.
Both teams thrive on defense and Kentucky's biggest edge this tournament has been their size advantage which has led to a large rebounding edge, especially on the offensive side. UConn can match up with Kentucky in size though and there will be none of that tonight. What I also like about UConn is the small lineup that Kevin Ollie used against the Gators. This put Daniels at the 5 and put the Gators at a disadvantage. I'll give UConn the advantage as well after just playing Florida, another SEC team.
The 'X' factor in this game will be the free throw shooting. UConn is shooting 86% from the line in the tournament and Kentucky is shooting 70%. This will be a factor down the stretch. Kentucky has also been fortunate to get in early foul trouble this tournament other than James Young getting in foul trouble in the Louisville game. I look for the refs to call a tight game and for the Wildcats to get in some early foul trouble tonight.
UConn is forcing 13 turnovers a game this tournament compared to only 8 turnovers a game Kentucky is forcing. I like Napier and Boatright as they are tenacious on the defensive end and play smart intelligent basketball on the offensive end.
Look for the Huskies to get the job done tonight and to cut down the nets for HC Ollie. It was a nice run by Kentucky who have 5 freshman and somewhere in this game, I expect some freshmen mistakes to cause the Wildcats some problems as well.
Wisconsin vs. Kentucky-----I like the Wisconsin Badgers to advance to the NCAA Championship game. Wisconsin is not the typical 'grind-it-out' basketball team. They can get out in transition and run with a trio of guards. Not only do they have guards that can run and can also shoot the three-ball, they also have a 7 footer in Frank Kaminski who is a guy with excellent footwork around the basket. Kentucky has not seen a guy like this. Texas, Louisville, nor Michigan had a big man with the type of talent that Kamisky has. I like this advantage for Wisconsin as Kaminsky will force the young 7 footers of Kentucky out of the paint because he has a respectable jump shot. Around the basket, I look for him to use his skills as well to get Kentucky in foul trouble. When on the foul line, Kaminsky is a solid 77% free throw shooter.
Speaking of free throw percentages, Wisconsin has the advantage in this game. Brust is a 89% shooter, Gasser 87%, Traevon Jackson 77%, and I already mentioned Kaminsky who is a 77% free-throw shooter. In a game that will be called tight, I expect the Badgers to get on the line and win the battle at the line. Harrison and Randle are decent free throw shooters for Kentucky, but it is the big men that can't shoot a lick. This will hurt them in this game. I also give Wisconsin the advantage for the most deadly equalizer in college basketball, the three-pointer. The Badgers shoot 38% from the three-point line, making 8 a game. Kentucky struggles from the three-point line as they still lack a pure shooter although Harrison and Young will take their fair share of three-point attempts.
When comparing these teams, Wisconsin is a disciplined team that just doesn't turn the ball over. They only make 7.9 turnovers a game and have a nice 1.57 assist: turnover ratio. They don't force things; they just play intelligent basketball until they get a good shot. Kentucky has lived on offense rebounds in this tournament, but I see that coming to an end as well in this game. Bo Ryan is the best coach in this Final Four and it will show as he has been given a week to prepare for this game. Kentucky has also been fortunate to live at the free throw line in this tournament. I also see that coming to an end. In closing, Cauley-Stein is worth 2 points in this game and he is listed as doubtful. Calipari has confidence in his other young freshmen 7 footers, but they have not faced a team like Wisconsin and Kaminsky.
Look for the more experienced, disciplined, intelligent , and better coached team to win this game. The linesmakers have inserted the Badgers as an underdog and that makes my decision that much easier . Take the points with Wisconsin tonight, but we won't need them as the Badgers win this game convincingly.
Philly @ Boston----Before the 76ers ended their 27 game losing streak, the team they had beaten last was the Boston Celtics. Yes, this was on January 29th and the 76ers were a 4 point dog. Now they are a full 6 points higher and this line is totally inflated. So, the 76ers have won 2 of their last 29 games and one was vs. the Celtics. Tonight is a great time to take the 76ers with all these points that the linesmakers are giving us. The Celtics have nothing to play for obviously as they have now lost 11 of their last 12 games. They aren't too much better than Philly and I will make Philly the better team in this matchup.
Historically, these teams play close games and I expect another close one tonight. The average score has been Boston 95 and Philly 92. With Philly on an 8-1 ATS spread run their last 9 games vs. the Eastern Conference, I fully expect them to keep this game close as well. Boston has not laid this many points all season long and they are not allowed to do, even vs. Philly. We have had a good feeling on Philly this year picking them in the right spots, and this is another perfect time to hop on them.
Denver @ Memphis----Historically, when these two teams meet, it's going to be a close game. Looking at the last 10 matchups, this series has been decided by 9 or less points in 9 of the 10 games. In those 9 games, the average margin of victory is 4 points. The one blowout win was earlier this year by Memphis, 120-99. Looking back at that game, Memphis was only a 3 point home favorite. Now in this game, they are a 9 point favorite. This is the NBA and I can guarantee you Denver will put up a fight tonight. Denver has a very good backcourt with Ty Lawson and Randy Foye. They also have Faried in the paint and he is going to get his double-double every night. As a matter of fact, Denver and Memphis played earlier this week and the Grizzlies snuck away with a 2 point win in Denver. Lawson and Foye went a combined 1-for-10 from the three point line uncharacteristically. If it wasn't for their poor shooting, they would have won this game.
This is also a bad scheduling spot for Memphis. They are coming off a 5 game road trip (0-5 ATS) and have bigger games vs. the Spurs and the Heat on deck. Look for the Grizzlies to play flat and do just enough to get by with the win.
Indiana @ Toronto-----I released the Pacers as a homedog earlier this week vs. the Spurs and they laid an egg. I know the Pacers are in a rut right now, but I look for them to have success vs. Toronto. Even with all the bad shooting, I will not ignore this is the NBA's best defense. Yes, I know they have to score to win, but they will be able to do so tonight. Toronto is only 6-4 SU and 5-4-1 ATS their last 10 games. Looking at their last 5 games, the Raptors are allowing opponents to shoot 48% from the floor. Another one of the Raptors problems is offensive rebounding. They have struggled in this category over the last month and the Pacers are a team that love to crash the boards. I would like to say for whatever reason or another, that the Pacers have struggled to score obviously over the last month. They are only shooting 39% from the floor over their last 5 games and they are long overdue for a breakout game. There is tremendous upside for the Pacers as there is heavy resistance for them when looking at my chart. There is a huge 'buy' signal for Indiana currently and we will take them as an underdog with confidence. It will also help that Kyle Lowry and his 14 ppg will be missed. Lowry is the Raptors floor general dishing out 7 assist a game, the team's leading free throw shooter, and a proven leader. They can start Vasquez at the point, but don't have a reliable back-up after Vasquez.
We will back the Indiana Pacers tonight as a small dog. This is the NBA's best defensive team and defense will turn into offense. Like I said, the Pacers are ready to bust out of their slump as all of my indicators are telling me this is the game they do it.
LA Clippers @ Dallas-----The Clippers are playing their 3rd game in 4 nights and are coming off a 5 game road trip to face the Dallas Mavericks, a team that is 0-3 this season vs. the Clippers. The Clippers are 7-15 ATS in their last 22 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days. Dallas had the Clippers beat last week when the Clipper were playing on a back-to-back before some late game heroics from Chris Paul. With Dallas in a tight race for the final playoff spot and the Clippers have already clinched, we will take Dallas tonight as they are historically one of the NBA's best underdogs. Dallas is 13-3 ATS in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
When these two teams match-up Dallas also has the historical advantage as well. Dallas is 7-2 ATS the last 9 meetings in LA and 11-5 the last 16 meetings overall.
San Antonio @ Indiana-----This line opened up San Antonio -2.5, then quickly jumped to -4 in favor of the Spurs. I will call this a seriously inflated line because of two reasons. Number one being the Spurs are the hottest team in the NBA, and number two being the Pacers have been struggling bad lately, including a loss to Cleveland yesterday. I agree that the Spurs are the best in the NBA currently, but tonight the home team will dominate this game. While the public will be heavy on the Spurs, we will fade them with confidence and take this defensive homedog that is hungry for a statement win. The Pacers closed at a 1.5 point favorite against the Miami Heat last week and now there is a 5.5 point differential in this game. If the Spurs would not have won 17 straight, then this line would not be inflated like this. With a 3 game lead on Oklahoma City for the #1 seed in the West, there is no need for the Spurs to try and flex their muscles for this game. They do have a big game on Thursday night vs. the Thunder and HC Popovich would rather make sure his team wins that game. The Pacers are still clinging to a one game lead over Miami for the #1 seed in the East, they know that every game is crucial if they want to have homecourt advantage in the playoffs and that statement has already been publically made. I also like the situation the Pacers are in tonight coming off back-to-back losses. They are a much better team when playing at home and I like them for them to step-up and make amends.
The Pacers do have the #1 defense in the NBA only allowing 91.7 ppg. They rank third in the NBA defending the three-point shot and have already beaten the Spurs earlier this season 111-100. Looking closer at that game, the Pacers were a 4 point dog in this game and now for them to be getting the same 4 points at home is ridiculous. I will call this a serious error on part of the linesmakers and one that we will ca$h in with ease. I will also play the 'bounce' factor in this game. The Pacers are only averaging 80 ppg their last 5 games. They are only shooting 38% from the floor and making only 4 three-pointers a game in this 5 games span. Let me remind you this is still the #1 team in the East and I will call for the 'law of averages' to be our friend in this game. I see the Pacers shooting closer to 50% from the floor and I will look for a drop in the Spurs averages. The Spurs are averaging 110 ppg over their last 5 games and shooting 45% from the three-point line. Playing on the road against the #1 defense in the NBA, I look for these numbers to drop significantly as well.
Dating back to 2011, the Pacers are 7-2 SU and ATS as a home dog of 1 to 4 points. It's not often we will get an abundance of value with a defensive homedog of this caliber. Let's take the points in this game with confidence as the Pacers will heat up from the floor and put the clamps down on the Spurs offensive attack.
Minnesota @ Brooklyn-----I like the T'Wovles getting the points in this game. Minnesota already ran Brooklyn out the gym earlier this year, 111-81. I like the momentum that Minnesota brings into this game after two strong home games, scoring 107 vs. the Hawks and 143 points vs. the Lakers. With Pekovic healthy, I see the T'Wolves with a decisive advantage down low in this game. Minnesota also has the rookie from Louisville, Gorgui Dieng coming off the bench which is added size down low. Dieng is averaging 13 rebounds a game over the last 7 games now as he plays around the rim. This is a deadly combo down low as Love and Miller can play on the perimeter and do their thing. Brooklyn's frontcourt is pencil thin and in a world of trouble in this game. They will be playing Mason Plumee and Blatche at the 4 and 5 while Teletovic supposed to play the 4 as well, be he likes to sit outside and shoot jumpers.
While Brooklyn is on a 12 game home winning streak, I will still question their lack of defense which will be an issue in this game. The Nets are giving up 104 ppg their last 5 games without any interior strength and I will again refer to the T'Wolves interior players to be a factor in this game. I clearly feel that for this game, Minnesota has the better overall lineup at all positions. Minnesota has their offense clicking on all cylinders currently and they will cover this spread for us this afternoon.
Kentucky vs. Michigan-----I like Michigan to win this game with ease this afternoon. What makes it even better for us is the linesmakers have over-compensated and have made Kentucky the favorite in this game This is an ERROR on part of the linesmakers and one we will capitalize on. Kentucky is now going from being a 4.5 point dog vs. Louisville to a 2-2.5 point favorite. This is a 6.5-7 point swing that is basically saying that Michigan is 6.5-7 points worse than Louisville. I strongly disagree on this line for a number of reasons. One being that Kentucky's 7 footer, Willie Cauley-Stein is listed as doubtful for this game. Cauley-Stein is averaging 3 blocks a game and has been a starter all season. I feel Cauley-Stein is at least worth two points in this game therefore making the value with Michigan today that more valuable. Now they will insert another freshman in the lineup. Dakari Johnson is a 7 footer but he is not as experienced as Cauley-Stein. He does not have the same chemistry with the team . Johnson is a wide body and I can compare him to Jeronne Maymon of Tennessee. Michigan pulled Tennessee's bigs out on the perimeter and put them at a disadvantage the whole game.
In my opinion, Louisville gave the game away on Friday night vs. Kentucky. It was missed free throws that killed Louisville. Michigan is shooting 76% on the year at the foul line and I like them to hold on to the lead in this game once they get it. It should be noted Kentucky is only a 68% free throw shooting team on the season. While Michigan built a big lead on Tennessee and almost gave the lead away, I feel they will learn from this and not let this game slip away. The other key-note in this tournament game is the fact that Kentucky still struggles from the perimeter. They only shoot 32% from the 3-point line on the season. It will be tough on the Wildcats once again in this game as the Wolverines are holding opponents to 31% 3-point shooting on the season. This will be a game where the outside jumpers are critical and I give Michigan and their 40% shooting from behind the arch on the season. In the tournament, Michigan is shooting 49% while Kentucky had been held below 30% from behind the arch in two of their 3 games.
Kentucky is a team much like Tennessee in my opinion so the Wolverines will not be caught by surprise. Michigan knows how to utilize their speed and lack of size to their advantage, the same way they beat Texas and Tennessee. HC John Beilein is an excellent coach and knows exactly what he is doing as well. In closing, we are getting a Michigan team that has already beaten two teams in the tournament with similar styles as Kentucky. I have Michigan as a 3-4 point favorite in this game as the linesmakers have made a costly mistake on this game. Let's take the points with Michigan this Sunday afternoon as they will cash in for us easily.
Detroit @ Philly-----I'm looking for the 76ers to end their losing streak tonight or at the least cover the spread for us tonight. I will not begin to tell you how good Philly is because we all know they stink. But I strongly feel this is the game they come away with the win. So we are going to play against a Detroit team that has no business laying points on the road, not even to the Philadelphia 76ers. Detroit is 1-14 SU their last 15 road games. They are not at all accustomed to being a road favorite either. Detroit has been a road favorite of more than 3.5 points only three times this year. The results are 1-2 SU and ATS. The one win was a 7 point victory back in December over the Milwaukee Bucks. At this time, Detroit was playing better and at least had hopes of making the postseason. Last night Detroit let Miami beat them by 34 points and the Heat gave Chalmers and Wade a rest to add insult to injury. Now to come off that loss to travel to Philly, I see no motivation for the Pistons. Philly is the fresher team tonight and the one with the more motivation as they can silence the sports reporters and give them something else to talk about other than a 26 game losing streak. I would like to talk about the Detroit Pistons and their piss-poor defense. They are allowing 105 ppg on the road this season. They have not been able to stop anybody, nor do they care about stopping anybody. This will be a game that the young 76er team can get out and run. Carter-Williams and Thaddeus Young should both have big games in this one. I actually look for Philly to play defense though and that's where the difference in this game will come in.
For Philly, the 76ers are on a 6-0 ATS run their last 6 games as they at least have show that they still have some heart and professionalism. Do you think these guys like to be the laughing stock of all sports announcers? I don't think so... These are paid professionals that come from winning backgrounds. They want to win a game, and trust me, TONIGHT is the NIGHT.
Let's grab the generous points tonight with the 76ers.
Tennessee vs. Michigan----- Tennessee is being over-looked in this game by the public and I like them to cover this spread tonight for us. Tennessee ended their season playing their best basketball of the season as they are currently 8-1 SU their last 9 games. The one loss was to the #1 ranked Florida Gators in the semi-finals of the SEC Championship. Looking closer at that game, the Vols had a 35-28 lead at halftime and were in a great position to knock of the nations #1 team before a stingy Florida defense held Tennessee to only 6 points and one field goal over the last 12 1/2 minutes.
The biggest reason I like them to advance to the Elite 8 is their defense as the Vols are holding opponents to 55.5 ppg over their last 9 games. That includes holding UMass to 67, Iowa to 65 in overtime, Missouri to 45, and the Florida Gators to 56. All 4 of these teams have efficient offenses and were held well below their season averages.
In this game vs. Michigan, they have two distinct advantages. One being they are the much better defensive team and they will bring their physical style of play straight to Michigan. The other huge advantage that is worth noting is that Tennessee is the much better rebounding team and when second chance points are so critical, the Vols are averaging 13.6 offensive rebounds a game. This is huge considering an undersized frontcourt is only averaging 8.8 rebounds a game.
Tennessee has a 'two headed monster' in the paint with Jeronne Maymon and Jarnell Stokes. These guys are both 6'8" and 260+ pounds. They take up a lot of room down low and use their size to their advantage. Both guys are extremely athletic as well for their size and have developed a great chemistry together. Michigan will probably try to double team these guys and the Vols will have success by swinging the ball to find the open man on the perimeter.
This is a rematch from 2011 in the NCAA Tournament when Michigan won 75-45. It was a close game at halftime before Michigan went on a 21-4 run in the second half. Obviously, these are two different teams now with a lot of new faces. This was HC Bruce Pearl's last game as coaching the Vols and HC Cuonzo Martin came in to resurrect the program. Let me remind you that Martin has Big 10 ties as he used to coach for Purdue before taking the head coaching job at Tennessee. I like Tennessee and HC Martin to make amends for this 2011 Tournament loss and to make a trip to the Elite 8. I will also note that Tennessee's Jordan McRae and Jeronne Maymon were freshmen and sitting on the bench in 2011. I can guarantee you though they remember this butt-whoopin' their team took and I feel these two guys will be extremely motivated and focused to lead their team to victory tonight.
I have already mentioned the Vols defensive advantage and their offensive rebounding advantage. Now I would like to mention two athletic guards they have that can score in a variety of ways. Jordan McRae is a 6'6" senior guard that is a NBA prospect averaging 18.6 ppg on the season. McRae can ignite this Tennessee offense in a hurry by knocking down the three-pointer, or slashing to the basket, or hitting the mid-range jumper. He is versatile and I have seen McRae perform 'big' when the game is on the line. The other guy I would like to talk about and can be the 'X' factor in this game is 6'6" Josh Richardson. Richardson has come on strong this NCAA tournament putting up 15, 17 and 26 points. Richardson has a nice stroke with a deadly mid-range jumper. Not only does he have one of the best pull-ups in the country, he can get in the lane as good as anybody. The man running the point is Antonio Barton. Barton is not a flashy player but he knows how to direct his team. He does not make careless decisions and I will note that he has not made a turnover this postseason. This is a strong starting 5 that cannot be overlooked.
For Michigan, they are led by Nik Stauskas who is a lights-out three point shooter at 45% on the season. While Stauskas can light it up, he also turns the ball over too much which can be costly in this game. I will also note that Michigan is a young team as they start 1freshman, 3 sophomores, and one senior. Derrick Walton is a freshmen point guard who has been great this season, but the pressure rises now on a bigger stage and I will give the Vols the advantage in the backcourt as well in the frontcourt for this game not only with their talent but with their experience. Tennessee starts 3 seniors and 2 juniors. The point guard Barton(Memphis transfer) is a senior and has tournament experience (with Memphis Tigers) and McRae is a senior as well. He was on this Tennessee team in 2011 when they lost to Michigan in the tournament. So McRae knows the stakes in this game and will be hungry to bring a win home for Vol Nation.
Look for Tennessee to play their brand of basketball tonight. I look for them to control the boards and to get out in transition when possible and when not; to run their offense through the post. I like defensive minded teams in the tournament and I like guard play. I will put the McRae/Richardson combo as one of the most underrated guard combo's in the country and after this game I have a feeling the rest of the nation will know plenty about them as well.
Charlotte @ Orlando-----I like the Magic tonight getting the points at home vs. the Bobcats. These two teams met back on 1/17 and Orlando was a 1.5 point dog. They lost 111-101 but I still don't think a 2.5 point inflation on this line is warranted for tonight's game. As a matter of fact, in that game on 1/17 Nikola Vucevic did not play and this is a premier 7 footer in the NBA averaging a double-double on the season. Looking deeper in that game, Charlotte's Al Jefferson had a field day against the undersized Magic team as he went for 30 points and 16 rebounds. Orlando had to play Glen Davis at the center position and that's mainly the reason why Charlotte won this game. Now Davis is gone to the Clippers and the Magic have inserted another big body in the lineup, Kyle O-Quinn. O'Quinn is a big 6'10" 250 lb. body and I Look for him and Vucevic to clog the lane and make it tough for Jefferson tonight.
Now, these teams also played back on 12/11 @ Charlotte. In this game Orlando won 92-83. They were a 5 point road dog and tonight they are a 4 point homedog.This was a game where Vucevic played and that's why they won the game. Jefferson was held to 10 points in this game. The linesmakers have made an error in this game as these teams are equal as far as talent is concerned and I give the Magic a 3 point advantage playing at home.
I also like the situation tonight for the Magic as they just ended a 9 game losing streak on Tuesday night vs. Portland with a 95-85 win. I really like the current lineup that the Magic have. This is a solid starting rotation, then with Tobias Harris coming off the bench, this is instant offense as well.
For Charlotte, this is a team that still struggles to score points and their defense is not as solid as it was early in the season. Looking over the Bobcat's last 5 games, they are only shooting 44% from the floor (33% 3 PT FG) while the defense is giving up 100+ points a game. The only thing that has been saving them as been the fact they have only committed 8 turnovers a game in this 5 game stretch. Trust me, Charlotte is not that good and they will make some careless turnovers tonight and resort back to the 12+ turnovers a game they are averaging on the season. The Magic are forcing 14 turnovers a game their last 5 games and playing at home tonight, I like them to do more of the same.
Looking at Orlando, when inserted as a 3.5-5.5 point home dog, they are a PERFECT 6-0 ATS their last 6 tries. As for Charlotte, they just simply are not used to being a road favorite. Only once since 2010 has this team been a road favorite of more than 3.5 points. That was on 3/16 this year vs. the poor Milwaukee Bucks. Trust me, Orlando is a much better team than Milwaukee and the Magic will show it tonight.
We are getting Orlando as a valuable homedog in this game. The Magic are the better shooting team, including free throws. They are also the better rebounding team and with O'Quinn and Vucevic both in the lineup, I expect for them to have a decisive advantage tonight. Orlando is 11-3 ATS in their last 13 home games and 5-0 ATS their last 5 Friday games. Look for these trends to continue as well as the fact that the Magic are 6-0 ATS as a home dog of 3.5-5.5 points with an EASY COVER.
San Diego State vs. Arizona -------We cashed in with San Diego State Saturday with a Heavy Hitter Exclusive as the Aztecs controlled the game from the opening tip. Tonight we are going right back with this defensive underdog that is only allowing 56.6 ppg on the season and have one of the best guards in the tournament in Xavier Thames.
This is a rematch from earlier this season when Arizona won the game as a 3 point road favorite, 69-60. After that loss, San Diego State reeled off 20 straight wins. Tonight they will be hungry to amends for that early season loss. As a matter of fact, this is a double revenge game for the Aztecs as they lost a heartbreaker, 68-67, to Arizona in 2012. Thames is a senior guard that has improved in all aspects of his game and I feel this third time facing the Wildcats will be a charm for him. Thames is also San Diego State's best help defender as he usually saves them about three baskets a game by making sure if a teammate gets beaten by an opposing ball handler, he's there to step in front.
These teams match-up very well and this will be a back-and-forth chess match that will be decided in the final seconds making this 6.5 point spread very valuable. In a defensive game, 6-6.5 points is more like a 9-10 point spread. My point is this is two top tier defenses where baskets will be hard to come by and these 6 points are extremely valuable in this game. At 6'8", Winston Shepard for San Diego State in my opinion is the most versatile player in this game and will be the 'X' factor as this is a tough match-up for Arizona.
San Diego State is long and athletic. With Thames being 6'3", the rest of the team is 6'6" or taller. J. Davis is a 6'8" transfer that is averaging 10 rebounds a game. Davis is a NBA prospect and the trio of him, Thames, and Shepard are a dangerous one. Winston Shepard is a 6'8" athletic that can play the 1-4 positions.
For Arizona, they have struggled covering the spread away from their homecourt down the stretch this season. They went 2-5 ATS their last 7 road games of the season, only winning ONE of those 7 games by more than 5 points. In post-season play (Pac 12 Tourney and NCAA Tourney), they are 4-2 ATS but these have been against mediocre opponents. Their biggest test was in the Pac 12 Championship as they were a 5 point favorite and lost SU to UCLA 75-71. The Wildcat's free throw shooting remains a problem and San Diego State will exploit this weakness. If put in the situation, I can see them going for some 2-for-1 opportunities by putting Arizona on the foul line, then scoring on the other end quickly. Arizona's diaper dandy, Aaron Gordon, is a highlight reel on ESPN, but he can't shoot free throws (42.9%). This puts HC Sean Miller in a tough situation when the game is on the line. San Diego State has plenty of big guys to use if they need to use fouls to put Gordon on the line. Now, if Gordon is not in the line-up Arizona is a much smaller team and San Diego WILL have the advantage with the more height and athleticism on the court.
In closing, these are two of the best defenses in the nation but Arizona took a big loss when their power forward Brandon Ashley got injured earlier this season and it has been apparent. In my opinion Xavier Thames will be the best player on the court tonight and he can create and get to the basket. If McConnell or Nick Johnson for Arizona get in early foul trouble, then Arizona's backcourt will take a big hit as well. While some might look at Arizona's 23 point win vs. Gonzaga in the second round, I will note that Gonzaga killed their self with 21 turnovers. The Zags shot the ball decent but just made too many careless turnovers. San Diego State is only committing 10 turnovers a game and they will play good tonight. They also have a much better defense than Gonzaga as this game will be played in the high 50's to low 60's. Look for a final score in the 61-58 range with San Diego State covering this Spread with ease. I have Arizona on 'upset' alert with good reason and we WILL TAKE THE POINTS tonight with SAN DIEGO STATE as this is my 1000* SWEET 16 MAX RELEASE PLAY of the YEAR
L.A. Clippers @ Dallas-----I like the Clippers tonight to win this game and cover. With the line sitting at -1 currently, I'm looking for an 8-12 point win by the L.A. Clippers. The Clipper's are playing on a back-to-back's but this does not worry me as they have a deep bench that is loaded with veterans. They literally have a second starting 5 coming off the bench with Crawford, Granger, Big Baby Davis, Turkoglu, and Jared Dudley. So I don't think fatigue will be a factor in this game. I will also note that the Clippers are 13-2 SU their last 15 games. This team is in a zone and we are going to take them tonight as the linesmakers have not made the proper line adjustments for this game. The Cliippers are coming off aloss where Chris Paul went 0-12 from the floor. I'm looking for Paul and CO. to bounceback BIG tonight.
For the Clippers, they are 2-0 vs. Dallas this year with a 119-112 win coming on 1/03 when playing at Dallas as a 2 point favorite. This was before the revamped Clipper lineup that is much stronger on the offensive and defensive end now. In that game, the Clippers had Dudley in the starting lineup and Matt Barnes was coming off the bench. Since, Barnes has come on strong as he has been inserted in the starting lineup averaging 14 points a game. I like Barnes in this game as Dallas will not have an answer for him. The Mavs are just a sloppy defensive team and I really feel the Clippers own an advantage at every position in this game. I will also note that Griffin and Jordan combined for 50 points in this 119-112 win.
The Clippers are 12-7-1 ATS this year on the road vs. the West. The average score has been 109-103 in favor of the Clippers. When further breaking down this game, I feel it will be the Clippers defense that wins this game. It should be noted that L.A has the #1 defense in the NBA when it comes to defending the 3 point shot. In Dallas' win vs. the Thunder on Tuesday night, Dallas made 15 3 pointers including 6 from Jose Calderon. Look for this number to drop significantly I will also compare the L.A. Clippers to the Oklahoma City Thunder and note that the Clippers are the much deeper team and also the more physical in the paint. I make this note because Dallas is coming off a satisfying win vs. the Thunder where Oklahoma City clearly misses Perkins and Sefolosha.
In closing we are getting a Clipper team tonight that has already beaten Dallas twice this year and in this game they will have their best lineup ready to take it to the defenseless Mavs. Sure, Dallas is fighting for a playoff position, but do not get caught up on that. That still does not negate the fact the Clippers should be a 3.5-4.5 point road favorite. Considering the fact the Thunder were a 3 point road favorite on Tuesday night, I currently have the Clippers as a stronger team than Oklahoma City Thunder and strongly feel the linesmakers are giving Dallas too much respect in this game. This my friends in a NBA Linesmakers ERROR ALERT as all my indicators have the LA Clippers as a 3.5-4.5 point road favorite and we will take advantage gladly. I expect a final score in the 108-96 range in favor of the LA CLIPPERS
Miami @ Indiana----We played against Indiana on Monday night and cashed in with the Bulls easily as I stated that Indiana would have their eyes set on this big game vs. the Heat. The series is tied up 1-1 this season with each team winning at home. The first game this year was a 6 point win by the Pacers. Miami had a 7 point lead at halftime but got outplayed in the second half. They shot a shocking 19% from the 3 point line. If just two or three of those missed three pointers would have went in, then the Heat would have won this game. The second matchup this year we saw Miami being the team to overcome a first half deficit as Dwayne Wade went off for 32 points. But looking closer Miami still only shot 24% from the three point line. This is a Miami team that is shooting 37% on the season from the three point line and I expect them to make some big shots in this game with LeBron, Ray Allen, and Shane Battier.
Both teams have been struggling as late though to cover the spread and I will say that Indiana is in a bad position after being inserted the favorite tonight. The Pacers are a money-burning 6-20-1 ATS their last 27 games overall and the Heat are 0-6 ATS their last 7 road games. Head-to-Head Indiana is 5-1 ATS the last 6 meetings vs. Miami when playing at home, but I like Miami tonight playing on national TV. Lebron always seems to come up big in these games. While these teams might act like this game is not a big deal, trust me, it is for bragging rights.
Looking at Indiana, they are only shooting 39.5% from the floor their last 5 games scoring 85 ppg. That will not get the job done in this game vs. a Heat team that is the best shooting team in the NBA. Sure, Indiana has the better defense but when the game is on the line, I look for Miami to make big shots and to send Indiana a message who is the best team in the East.
When Lebron and CO. are inserted as an underdog, they are always worth a second look. While the Heat are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games, 5 of these 6 games they were a road favorite. The other ATS loss was against the San Antonio Spurs who are blowing everybody out. I would like to look at the road game the Heat played on 2/20 @ Oklahoma City though as this one sticks out to me. They were a 3 point underdog and beat the Thunder 103-81. That's more how I see the outcome of this game being. LeBron takes these games seriously and the Pacers are struggling to find their identity again with proven scorers. George has regressed and in the 4th quarter, look for LeBron to lead his team to a BIG road win tonight.
Belmont @ Clemson------Belmont will travel to play on the road vs. Clemson tonight but they already played in front of a rowdy North Carolina team earlier this season and beat them 83-80 so they will not be intimidated in this game tonight. Belmont is ranked 2nd in the nation shooting 50% from the floor and are 7th in three-point shooting at 39.7%. J.J. Man is a 6'6" OVC player of the year that leads the Bruins with 18 ppg on the season. Mann is an experienced senior guard that can keep Belmont in this game by himself but he has some very good help as well. I will start off by telling you that 6 out of the 7 Belmont players in the main rotation can all shoot the three point shot. This includes 6-9" D. Windler who is a senior and a tough matchup as he will step out and make the perimeter jump shot if you don't put a hand in his face. I really like the starting 5 of Belmont along with their 6th man coming off the bench. Evan Bradds is a 6'7" freshman that plays on the wing and is athletic and a slasher that can get to the basket and add instant offense off the bench. The Belmont offense is one that relies on team ball as these guys are unselfish with the ball and are coached by Rick Byrd. I will give Byrd the coaching advantage in this game as well as he has carried Belmont to the NCAA tourney the last few years and has experience in post season. This is Byrd's 32nd year at Belmont and is a great coach as I remember coach Byrd when I went to basketball camp when I was a teenager. Kids love to come play for coach Byrd and he teaches them fundamental basketball. One last thing I will tell you about Belmont is they will not be over-matched in this game. With 4 players in the rotation standing 6'8" or taller and then with Mann at 6'6", the Bruins have length and will be able to get box-out and get rebounds in this game.
Looking at Clemson, they are a team that struggles to score outside of K.J. McDaniels who is Mr. Do-it-All. McDaniels will be the most athletic player on the court but Clemson's other guards cannot shoot the ball consistently and that will cost them tonight. The bench for Clemson is also thin and I will give Belmont the advantage with the more depth and quality players off the bench. For the season, Clemson is only a 42% shooting team as they rely on their defense to win games. While they do bring a solid defense into this game, I will again note that Belmont is a 50% shooting team on the season. They don't force things and take high percentage shots.
In closing, I will recap the first round game Clemson played vs. Georgia State. They were a 6.5 point favorite and ended up winning by 12 points, 78-66 but it could of been much closer. Clemson won this game with McDaniels 30 points as Georgia State did not have an answer. This was a tight game midway through the second half, but Georgia State went cold and missed 10 straight shots and Clemson pulled away. I do not see Belmont faltering tonight as they shoot the ball to well with too many good shooters to let this game slip away. Look for this game to come down to the last two minutes of the game with the winner winning by 2-3 points. I will put Clemson on 'upset' alert tonight and we will gladly take the generous points in this matchup.
Arkansas @ California-----I like Arkansas in this game tonight. For California, they are expected to be without their 6'10" senior big man, Richard Solomon. Solomon is averaging 11 ppg and 10 rpg on the season. His injury will now give Arkansas the advantage down low with Bobby Portis. Portis is a big 6'10" Mc-Donalds All-American freshman that has shined his freshmen year putting up 12 ppg and 7 rpg and has gotten better and stronger as the season has progressed.
These teams met earlier in the year and California won straight up 85-77 in the Maui Invitational. It was early in the season and things have changed since then. Portis had his worst college game of the season in this game with only 5 points on 1-for-5 shooting. Since then, Portis has improved his game and is coming off a 13 rebound performance against Indiana State in the opening round of the NIT. Arkansas has learned how to play on the road and California has forgotten how to cover a spread as they are only 3-12-1 ATS their last 16 games, including 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games. Looking at Arkansas, they are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a SU record and are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games.
When breaking down this game, I'd like to compare stats of both teams over the last 5 games. Arkansas has their offense running and gunning averaging 83 ppg and outscoring their opponents by 7 ppg. Looking at Cal, they are only scoring 63 ppg their last 5 games and are getting outscored by 2 ppg. The Razorbacks are also shooting 41.5% from the three-point line in this span with Madden, Qualls,Clarke, and Wade all guys that can shoot the perimeter shot. I expect for Arkansas to make shots in this game and for Portis to have a field day with Solomon's absence in the lineup. The other key stat in this game is the 8 steals and 14 turnovers that the Razorback tenacious defense is forcing over this 5 game span while California is only forcing 8 turnovers a game.
Look for Arkansas to pull the upset win out on the West Coast this Monday Night.
Indiana @ Chicago------I like the Bulls tonight in a quick revenge game from last week when the Pacers won 91-79. This will be the 4th matchup this season between the Bulls and the Pacers and the Pacers own the 2-1 edge. Needless to say, this is a game the Bulls will want to win to even things up at 2-2. Taking a closer look, the home team is a perfect 6-0 SU the last 6 meetings with the smallest margin of victory being 3 points. The other 5 victories by the home team have been by 5,10,17,12, and 14 points. So the -1.5 that the Bulls are laying tonight is a small number and one I look for them to cover.
For the Pacers, they are 2-5 SU their last 7 road games as the struggles have begun. The Pacers go on scoring droughts and that is what I see happening in this game. In the 5 road losses, Indiana is only averaging 85 ppg. To add more troubles for the Pacers, they have a game on deck vs. the Miami Heat as this will be a revenge game for them. It is a bad spot for Indiana tonight as they will be satisfied with the win vs. the Bulls last week and more focused on getting back home to face the defending NBA Champs in what might be a NBA Eastern Conference Finals preview. The Pacers are 2-14 ATS their last 16 games when playing on one day's rest and are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning SU record.
For Chicago, they are 15-6 SU at home vs. the East, but looking closer they have not lost a home game to the East since 1/13 to Washington. They are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games vs. the Eastern Conference and are 4-1 ATS their last 5 games vs. the NBA Central. Obviously, the Bulls play their best basketball when playing at home vs. Eastern Conference opponents. We will add some revenge into the mix and the Bulls will be ready to play tonight as the Bulls are only giving up 89.8 ppg when playing at home.
With the home team having such a decisive advantage in this series, we will take Chicago tonight to even the season series at 2-2 as this is my 1000* NBA SITUATIONAL GAME of the MONTH.
Mercer vs. Tennessee------I was on Mercer +12.5 vs. Duke and we will go right back with them this afternoon. If you guys missed out on my 1000" 'under-the-radar' UNDERDOG Play of the DAY, let me tell you about Mercer. Mercer starts 5 seniors and the other two guys in the rotation are a junior and a sophomore. The sophomore is I. Nwamu who is a Cleveland State transfer. Nwamu has a big frame for a guard at 6'5", 200 lb., can pose a matchup problem for a lot of teams. He will be a factor in this game. Nwamu is also Mercer's best three point shooter at 44% on the season. He kept Mercer in the game with 11 points in the first half vs. Duke. Leading Mercer though is Langston Hall. He is a true point guard that can dish the rock and create his own shot as well. Hall got his teammates invlolved vs. Duke as he only shot 5 shots from the field and we have yet to see his true talent emerge. I like the experience of Mercer to keep them in this game. I will also note that Mercer is forcing 15 turnovers a game which I will also factor in my decision. Versus Duke, Mercer forced 12 turnovers while only committing 8 giving them a +4 advantage. Duke made 15 3 pointers in the game to keep them hanging around. I will also note that Mercer got beat on the offensive boards 15-2 by Duke and they still won the game. So why many might point out the size advantage for Tennessee, I will rely on the intelligence and experience of Mercer.
Tennessee will not make nearly as many three pointers but they will try to use their two big man to their advantage. Stokes and Maymon are huge in the paint, but I liked what I saw from Mercer's big men as well in Coursey and Gallon. This will be Tennessee's third game since Wednesday and I'm looking for a drop in their defensive performance.
I would also like to mention that Mercer played @ Tennessee last year and were an 8 point underdog. Well, Mercer beat Tennessee straight up 75-67. Mercer only committed 8 turnovers in that game as well which just further tells me that this team plays fundamental basketball. Gallon and Coursey (Mercer's big men) had 31 points in that game so they can hold their own in this game. I will note that Maymon was out for Tennessee as he was injured last year, but I still believe that Mercer will do a better job of getting rebounds and loose balls today. The only legitimate three point shooter the Vols have is Jordan McRae. Look for Mercer to devise a solid defensive game plan to contain McRae and to make Richardson and Barton to make jump shots.
In closing we are getting a fundamental team in Mercer that starts 5 seniors that showed us all they can play after beating Duke. They will keep this one close as well as the game will come down to the final minutes to decide the winner. I also like the fact that Mercer beat Tennessee last year which just further tells me these guys will be playing with confidence and momentum in this game.
Kentucky vs. Wichita State-----Kentucky is playing their best ball of the season currently and are 4-0 ATS their last 4 games. Playing Florida in the SEC championship really showed me the determination that these Kentucky kids have. They will face an undefeated Wichita State team as the shoe is on the other foot now for HC Calipari. Calipari has led some talented Kentucky teams into the tournament and I will give HC Calipari the coaching advantage in this game as he has much more tournament experience.
Wichita has not played a close game in almost two months now. They will fold under pressure today when the Wildcats give them all they can handle. Wichita State is a team that likes to push the pace and get up and down the court and that will play right into Kentucky's preferred style of play as well. Kentucky has the athletic guards and the diaper dandy Randall that can get out in transition as well.
What I really like about Kentucky is their size. All of their guards are 6'6" or taller with Cauley-Stein being a true 7 footer. I really like the size to be a disruption to Wichita State today. The Wildcats are averaging 14.6 offensive rebounds a game which will also benefit them and I will account for this with extra second chance opportunities. When this game is over with, J. Randle will be the best player on the court and I like J. Young to stretch Wichita's defense and knock down some big jumpers as well. While I talk about Kentucky's playmakers on offense; defense will win this game and I like The Wildcats defense as HC Calipari finally has these kids playing with a feared defensive intensity.
In closing, I like Kentucky to win this game outright, therefore we will grab these points with the more atlhletic team that is more motivated and inspired at this time of the year. This will be Wichita's toughest opponent this season in my opinion and it's March Madness where upsets do happen. This will be one. Let's take Kentucky for an easy winner!
Oregon vs. Wisconsin------I like Oregon with the points tonight as they are one of the deepest teams in this tournament and finished the season playing their best ball of the season as they are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games. I will say they even finished better than when they began the year. What improved was the Duck's defense as they held their last 8 opponents to 69 ppg. With Richard Amardi,Elgin Cook, and Ben Carter in the paint, the Ducks actually have become the defensive team that HC Dana Altman has been preaching. Oregon does a great job of mixing it up on defense as they will play some zone , some man, and will press also. Not only have these guys given the Ducks the defensive intensity they need, UNLV transfer Mike Moser has come on strong as well. Moser recorded 4 consecutive double-doubles concluding the regular season before entering the PAC 12 tournament. On the perimeter, Young, Calliste, Dotson, and Lloyd can all score. Dotson had an off game and Calliste really didn't have to shoot the ball as he chose to get his teammates involved. The result was still a 19 point win vs. BYU. This is a 10 man rotation that Oregon uses and I love deep teams in the tournament. The other stat that I will rely on in this game is that Oregon is a 77% free throw shooting team which is also valuable come tournament time.
Looking at Oregon, when they played BYU on Thursday, Elgin Cook was the man in the paint but there are 3 other options for the Ducks in the paint. Mike Moser had an off game and I look for him to have a big impact vs. Wisconsin tonight. He will be a match-up problem for the Badgers and Moser will be the 'X' factor in this game.
For Wisconsin, they rely on 3 point guards basically and the 7 footer Kaminsky in the paint. Oregon is used to facing 7 footers like Kaminsky as they played Arizona, Utah, and Arizona State twice each this year and those teams all have 7 footers like Kaminsky. So the Ducks know that they have to crash the boards and use their speed to get out in transition to beat Wisconsin. I will again note the depth of Oregon and the fact they can use a variety of lineups to beat Wisconsin offensively and defensively. Look for the Ducks to go small and to get out in transition vs. Wisconsin as Michigan State did vs. them in the Big 10 tournament. Let's grab the points tonight with Oregon as they are 8-1-1 ATS their last 10 neutral site games and 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games vs. the Big 12. The Ducks are also 18-6-3 ATS in their last 27 games following a SU win while Wisconsin is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win.
North Dakota State vs. San Diego State-----This is a game that San Diego State will win with ease. I watched North Dakota State play against Oklahoma on Wednesday and they had success but that was against a Sooner defense that is suspect. The difference tonight is a San Diego State team that thrives on defense as they are only allowing 58 ppg holding opponents to 39.7% shooting from the floor. I want to look closer at some of the games the Aztecs have played this year vs. quality teams. They held Marquette to 59, Kansas 57, UNLV 52,64, and 51, Boise State 66 and 65, and New Mexico 58 and 48 points respectively.
San Diego State is long and athletic. Their guards are tall and their forwards and long with speed. While North Dakota State has size down low, they will be outmatched vs. the athleticism of San Diego State. These guards for San Diego State are limiting opponents to 28% from the three point line and North Dakota State's Lawrence Alexander will not go 4-for-7 outside of the perimeter in this game. I will also note that North Dakota States Taylor Braun and Marshall Bjorklund took a beating with cuts and bruises on their face. Another note is the fact that North Dakota State shot 91% from the foul line (20-22). I look for this average to drop a little bit under their 75% on the season as they were very fortunate Thursday night. North Dakota State is coming off the biggest win of their college history and Big Wins= Big Letdowns.
For San Diego State, they got a scare in the first round and had to play into overtime. They will be ready to go in this one tonight. After having a 12 point lead at halftime, the Aztecs let New Mexico State back in the game. I like for them to build a lead and to keep building it in this game. This is a bargain to get San Diego State -3 as I have them -6 in my power rankings. I will agree 110% with my rankings and also note that San Diego State is 5-1 ATS this season as a favorite of 2.5-4 points as they proved these are the games they excel at. Lay it and Play it with San Diego State !
San Antonio @ Sacramento-----I like Sacramento to cover this spread tonight as they are a live homedog. Sacramento is a PERFECT 7-0 ATS their last 7 tries as a homedog of 6.5-9 points, including 3-0 ATS this year. Sacramento plays good teams good when playing at home as they are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 home games vs. a team with a winning home record. That includes a SU win over Miami and Houston and a 2 point loss to Oklahoma City. For the Spurs, while they have no problem covering as a road favorite when playing against the East, they have struggled against the West when inserted as a 7-9 point road favorite. Dating back to 2012, the Spurs are 1-5 ATS as a road favorite of 7-9 points against the Western Conference.
Last year, the Spurs were a 9 point road favorite when visiting Sacramento and won only by 6 points, 108-102. This is a more well-balanced Sacramento team this year with three guys averaging 20+ points (Gay, Thomas, and Cousins). I will give the Kings the motivational and situational edge as well . Since that game last year, the last 4 match-ups have all been played in San Antonio. I will note though that Sac is 3-0 ATS the last 3 meetings in San Antonio, including 2-0 ATS this year. The Kings lost 95-93 back in February and Cousins did not play in that game which is huge. Cousins is an automatic 20/10 guy and he will be huge in this game.
The Spurs have a big game on deck tomorrow night @ Golden State and this should be noted as well. It will be their 3rd road game in 4 nights and HC Popovich will be giving some of his vets a little breather tonight. I like the momentum Sacramento will be playing with as well coming off the overtime win vs. the Wizards.
I will also play the 'law of averages' in this game as the Spurs are shooting 51% from the floor their last 5 games (50% 3 PT FG). This is a very hard percentage to keep up and playing on the road, I will call for a big drop in shooting tonight while the Kings will improve on their 28% 3 point shooting the last 5 games. In closing, Sacramento is one of the better rebounding teams in the NBA and playing at home tonight I look for them to make shots, crash the boards, and catch the Spurs in a flat spot as they will be more concerned with Golden State on Saturday.
Providence vs. North Carolina-----I like Providence with the points in this game tonight. They have a senior point guard in Bryce Cotton who is scoring 21 ppg and is a solid 85% free throw shooter. Kadeem Batts is another senior who is a big body in the paint that is averaging 12 ppg/ 7.5 rpg and a solid 75% free throw shooter. I really like this starting 5 for Providence. The other 3 starters, Henton,Harris ,and Fortune are all guys who can score the basketball. Henton is a beast on the boards and is a difficult matchup as he will stretch the defense and shoot the three-pointer with ease as well. Henton is averaging 18 ppg/ 12 rpg over his last 5 games. Henton is also valuable on the defensive end as he can guard several different positions. Tyler Harris is another long defender for the Friars. Harris can also shoot the three ball and is a good ball handler for a big man. Josh Fortune is a knock down shooting guard that is the Friars best perimeter shooter. He erupted for 24 points in the Big East tourney vs. Saint John's and can be a dangerous guy in this game tonight.
For North Carolina, they struggle from the perimeter other than the point guard Marcus Paige. I will say that Bryce Cotton and Marcus Paige are even, but will give Providence the advantage at the other 4 positions. To make it worse, North Carolina is only shooting free throws as 62.5% on the season which is huge in this game while Providence is the #2 free throw shooting team in the nation at 78%. While North Carolina did improve this season winning 13 straight games before losing to Duke in the season finale then losing to Pittsburgh in the ACC tournament. Looking closer, UNC also finished the season on a 0-5 ATS run while the Providence Friars ended the season on a 7-2 ATS run. Providence is a legit team and one with experience, well-rounded shooters, and some excellent free throw shooters.
Look for Providence to be the better team down the stretch and to cover this spread and bring us home the $$.
Mercer vs. Duke-----I like Mercer in this game as they are an experienced team that can shoot the ball and they are getting double digits. Mercer starts 5 seniors and the other two guys in the rotation are a junior and a sophomore. The sophomore is I. Nwamu who is a Cleveland State transfer. Nwamu has a big frame for a guard at 6'5", 200 lb. and can pose a matchup problem for a lot of teams. He will be a factor in this game. Nwamu is also Mercer's best three point shooter at 44% on the season. Leading Mercer though is Langston Hall. He is a true point guard that can dish the rock and create his own shot as well. I like the experience of Mercer to keep them in this game. I will also note that Mercer is forcing 15 turnovers a game which I will also factor in my decision.
Looking at statistics, both teams match-up very evenly. I understand Duke has played the tougher schedule and is the better team, but Mercer will not back down in this one. Both teams live and die by the three pointer and Mercer will make enough in this game to keep it within 7-8 points. Mercer does have wins this season over Seton Hall, Ole Miss, and Valpo and they lost by only three point to Texas.
This line opened up at Duke -10.5 and was quickly bet up to -12.5. This is an inflated line that is shaded towards Duke solely on their name. Duke ended the season going 1-5 ATS and are 1-4 ATS their last 5 games when laying double digits. Their defense as struggled their last 5 games as well as they are allowing opponents to shoot 50% from the floor. Let's grab the points in this early game as the Mercer Bears will make this one interesting and cash in with us with ease.
Trends: Duke is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 Tournament games. Mercer is 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600
BYU vs. Oregon------This is a rematch from earlier this year when BYU travelled to Oregon and played them into overtime, but the Ducks held on for a 100-96 victory. After that victory, Oregon began to struggle but ended the season going 8-2 SU and 7-2-1 ATS. Oregon has always been able to put the ball in the basket as they are scoring 81.8 ppg. What did improve was the Duck's defense as they held their last 7 regular season opponents to 69 ppg. With Richard Amardi,Elgin Cook, and Ben Carter in the paint, the Ducks actually have become the defensive team that HC Dana Altman has been preaching. Not only have these guys given the Ducks the defensive intensity they need, UNLV transfer Mike Moser has come on strong as well. Moser recorded 4 consecutive double-doubles concluding the regular season before entering the PAC 12 tournament. On the perimeter, Young, Calliste, Dotson, and Lloyd can all score. This is a 10 man rotation that Oregon uses and I love deep teams in the tournament. The other stat that I will rely on in this game is that Oregon is a 77% free throw shooting team which is also valuable come tournament time.
For BYU, I honestly feel they shouldn't be in the tournament. They have two good players on their team and one of them, Collinsworth, is out for the remainder of the season. Collinsworth was the team's second leading scorer at 14 ppg and was leading the team in rebounds at 8 a game while dishing 4.6 assist a game. I will also add the line has not been fixed for Collinsworth's absence. He is worth every bit of 4-5 points for this BYU team. They cannot rely on Tyler Haws the whole game and Oregon will have a game plan that is devised around Haws.
In closing, this is a 5 point spread and one that Oregon will cover. They have a much deeper and polished lineup that will be able to play at whatever pace BYU chooses to do. Oregon shoots free throws at a high percentage and I expect them to be +4-+6 in free throws and they take care of the ball better than BYU. Also, with the absence of Collinsworth for BYU, I see this as a game that Oregon wins by 9-11 points.
Trends: Oregon is 7-1-1 in their last 9 neutral site games. Oregon is 19-7-1 in their last 27 non-conference games. BYU is 1-7 ATS in first round games since 2001 BYU is 4-9 ATS in their last 13 NCAA tourney games.
LSU @ San Francisco-----I like LSU in this spot tonight as a small underdog. LSU has the big size advantage in the paint and are the more physical team as well. With O'Bryant and Martin both being 6'9" and 240 lb +, these guys will over power San Fran down low. O'Bryant has excelled this year and does not back down from anybody. The Dons are undersized and Dickerson is their most polished big man, but he prefers to play on the perimeter. LSU's backcourt is quick and elusive as they gave bigger SEC teams (Kentucky) fits this year. The equalizer in this game for LSU is J. Martin. Martin is a 6'9" 5 star MC Donald's All-American that has the ability to shoot the jumper and stretch defenses but can also defend and rebound the basketball. LSU also has another 4 star recruit in Jordan Mickey. Mickey is shooting 54% from the floor this year as he takes some very high percentage shots. Mickey is a double-double guy and I look for him to put up 10/10 tonight. Mickey is also the enforcer down low and the Tiger's leading shot blocker. When the game is on the line, look for the ball to be in the hands of senior guard A. Stringer who is a 40% 3 point shooter and an 81% free throw shooter. This is a talented Tiger team that I feel will not be affected by playing out on the West Coast tonight. I feel they have already played in some of the toughest gyms this year (@ Florida, @ Kentucky, @ Vandy, and @ Arkansas and that home court is not significant in this game.
San Fran does not have quality guards as they are not that talented in my opinion. They miss too many shots around the rims and the LSU defense will alter these shots tonight. When looking at season stats, LSU is the better defensive team holding opponents to 41% from the floor this season. This is important as LSU has played much better teams. LSU is also the better offensive rebounding team as they are grabbing 11.5 offensive boards a game. They are the scrappier team as well getting 7.7 steals a game, then are the better shot blocking team at 6 blocks a game. I have broken down both teams and this is a 'bad line' the linesmakers have posted . It will not get much attention from the public but we will jump on this one and play it aggressively. Look for LSU to have the lead the majority of the game and to pull away in the second half with a final margin of victory in the 7-8 point range.
Georgia State @ Clemson-----Georgia State has the team to compete with Clemson tonight and I like them in this underdog role. Georgia State has a backcourt that can play with anybody in the nation with Ryan Harrow and RJ Hunter. They are averaging 36 ppg combined. Georgia State then has two legitimate big men in Atkins and Washington. Washington is a USC transfer that is a bruiser and is the clean up man. Atkins is a Virginia Tech transfer that can light it up from behind the arch. This guy looks like an ACC Player and plays like it. Tonight will be nothing new to him as he has already played at Duke, at North Carolina, and playing at Clemson is right up his alley. Georgia State's top 4 scorers are also 80+% free throw shooters and I love good free throw shooting teams come tournament time.
For Clemson, KJ McDaniel's more than likely departing to the NBA, I feel he has nothing to prove in this game. This is the NIT and there is no need for him to risk getting injured . I look for McDaniel's and his 17 ppg/ 7 rpg to take a big drop tonight. Outside of McDaniel's, Clemson has nobody else on their team that averages double figures. They are a horrible shooting team and have to count on their defense to bail them out of games way too often. Well, tonight they are laying way too many points and we will gladly take Georgia State with these handful of points. While Clemson is known for their defense, Georgia State has been playing defense as well over their last 5 games holding opponents to 63 ppg and 38% shooting from the floor.
In closing, Georgia State only commits 8 turnovers a game. They shoot 77.5% from the foul line. They get after the ball forcing 13 turnovers a game (8 steals a game) , and they have 3 starters that are transfers from major teams (Kentucky, Virginia Tech, and USC). Georgia State is 9-2 ATS their last 11 road games and are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. In contrast, Clemson has been struggling going 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. Georgia State takes this one down to the wire and gets the EASY COVER
Miami @ Cleveland-----I will lay the points on the road tonight as the Miami Heat are thinking about home court in the NBA playoffs and the Cavs look to be thinking about going fishing as Kyrie Irving is out for this game and they might sit him the rest of the season as well. Irving and his 21 ppg and 6 assist a game will be missed for sure. I feel like the BIG 4th quarter comeback against the Houston Rockets will be used for momentum going into this game. Miami laid 8.5 points earlier this season @ Cleveland and won by 11, 95-84.
Let's keep in mind that Miami is the #1 shooting team in the NBA (50.7%), while Cleveland is the worst shooting team in the NBA (42.8%). As these stats should hold true, Miami should have no problem winning this game by 14-16 points. I feel that Kyrie Irving is worth a full 5-6 points to this team and the line for this game has not been adjusted for Irving's absence.
I will note that Miami is 0-3 SU and ATS their last 3 road games but these were against playoff teams (Bulls, Spurs, and the Rockets). I will also note that Miami tends to beat up on sub-par teams on the road though as they are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Miami knows what is at stake as they want home court in the playoffs and I see this as a perfect game for them to get back on track. Wade is looking great as he has been preserving himself this season. Ray Allen is shooting the three ball with confidence and it's about time for LeBron to put up a 30+ point game. I look for Miami to win this game by 18 or more points in the 108-90 range.
The Cavs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games and the road team is 6-1 ATS the last 7 meetings in this series. H-E-A-T *ALERT* Tonight!
Robert Morris @ Saint John's-----Many people might point out that Robert Morris beat Kentucky last year in the NIT and they will upset Saint John's tonight. Well, I will tell you that Saint John's WILL WIN THIS GAME, B-I-G Tonight.
Robert Morris comes into this game 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games. They are a team that does not rely on their defense and instead they try to outscore opponents. That game plan will not work against this Saint John's team that is long and athletic and will be way too much for Robert Morris tonight. Robert Morris tallest player is 6'8" and this guy is not much of a factor. Looking closer, I will note that Saint John's is averaging 7.6 blocks a game while Rob. Morris is only averaging 1.8. Needless to say, the Red Storm will be TOO MUCH in the interior tonight. They rely on their guards to shoot the three ball and Saint John's has the length on the perimeter to be a disruption.
Saint John's is only allowing 64 ppg at home this year and that is a solid number against Big East opponents. I look for them to hold Robert Morris to 61-63 points tonight. Robert Morris comes into this game tonight struggling as well over their last 5 games also only scoring 61 ppg, shooting 38% from the floor. This is a full 10 points lower than their season average and now is not a good time to be struggling from the floor against a defensive minded team in Saint John's.
In closing, I will note that Robert Morris did not fare well at all vs. non-conference opponents this season. They lost by 38 @ Kentucky, by 13 @ Cleveland State, by 15 @ Buffalo, by 19 @ Delaware, by 26 @ Oklahoma State and by 12 @ Alabama. I expect Saint John's to win this game EASILY by 21-23 points tonight as they are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games overall and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS Loss.
LA Clippers @ Denver-------The Clippers are playing on a back-to-back and are traveling in the altitude to play Denver tonight. I like Denver as a valuable homedog tonight . The Clippers travelled to Denver on 2/03 and were a 1.5 point road favorite and lost SU 116-115 as Randy Foye hit a 3 pointer at the buzzer for the win.
I see this as an inflated line for tonight as the Clippers are one of the hottest teams in the NBA (11 game win streak) and the linesmakers have over compensated for this game. The Clippers are only 2-4 SU in their last 6 back-to-back road sets and they have had a fairly favorable schedule since the All Star Break. Tonight will pose a problem for them.
For Denver, they are as healthy as they have been all season with Ty Lawson back running the point as Randy Foye is a more productive at the shooting guard. Faried is playing like an animal in the paint, and Wilson Chandler and JJ Hickson round off the frontcourt. Lawson is averaging 27 points and 12 assist his last 3 home games. Wilson Chandler is averaging 22 points and 7 rebounds a game over his last 3 home games. Faried is averaging 23 points and 10 rebounds a game over his last 3 games. My point is that these guys are playing at a high level currently and they will be catching the Clippers in a vulnerable spot. Denver has been getting up for good teams and playing them well going 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning SU record. Dating back to 2012, the home team in this series is 5-0 SU and ATS. Last March, Denver was a 4 point home favorite against the Clippers and won 107-92. I strongly feel like a 9.5 point reversal is not warranted. It should be noted that the Clippers only are 19-15 on the road and they are not a very good three point shooting team nor a good free throw shooting team.
Taking a look at Denver, they are a great homedog play when inserted as homedog between 4-6 points. Dating back to 2006, they are 6-4 ATS as a 4-6 point home dog. But looking closer, three of those ATS losses came vs. the San Antonio Spurs. So take the Spurs out of the equation, and Denver is 6-1 ATS as homedog of 4-6 points since 2006.
Injuries: The Clippers are banged up and not 100% currently. Chris Paul is nursing a sore ankle, Jamal Crawford has been out with a calf injury, Blake Griffin is dealing with a sore back, and Redick is still out with a bulging disc in his back.
Let's grab these points with Denver tonight as they will Ca$h in for us Easily this Monday Night.
Oklahoma City @ Chicago ------Oklahoma City comes into this game playing on a back-to-back vs. the Chicago Culls who are playing with a world of confidence. I have had a good feel on the Bulls as well over the last few weeks and tonight is a nice time to PLAY ON them as a home dog. Since January 1st, The Bulls have the best record in the Eastern Conference and they have won 13 of their last 17 games.
Oklahoma City has won the last 4 matchups vs. the Chicago Bulls, but I really like the defense of the Bulls currently and defense wins games as they are holding opponents to 90 ppg and 41% shooting from the floor over the last 5 games. I also like Chicago as the situation favors them as this is their 6th straight home game, while Oklahoma City is playing on a back-to-back spot. The Bulls have alternated spread covers their last 7 games (L-W-L-W-L-W-L), and I like this trend to continue tonight
I played against Chicago on Saturday and took Sacramento +8 as the Kings hung in there and covered the spread. It was a physical game for the Bulls as they only shot 39% from the floor as Butler, Hinrich, and Augustin went 3-for-13 the 3-point line. I look for them to knock down some more jumpers tonight as Oklahoma City is a team that does not defend the jump shot well.
Oklahoma City is 1-5 ATS their last 5 road games while the Bulls are the best team in the East right now and are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games. Lets grab the points tonight as the Bulls are fresh and are the #1 defensive team in the NBA. I expect them to win this game with ease by 7-9 points.
Dallas @ Oklahoma City-----I like Dallas tonight as they are playing with a full 3 days rest and will be looking to settle the score with an Oklahoma City that they have had problems with lately. Oklahoma City has won the last 10 matchups vs. Dallas including a sweep in the 2012 playoffs. I will note that 7 of these 10 losses have come by 6 or less points though and I also feel that although the Thunder do have decent bench players, that the loss of Perkins and Sefalosha are a cause for concern on this team, especially on the defensive end. The Thunder have gotten soft on the defensive end and have been counting on outscoring their opponents. That will not cut it today against a Dallas team that is playing with confidence. They have won 3 of their past 4 games overall and have only lost 2 of their last 11 road games by more than 6 points. The Mavs are also fighting for playoff positioning and every game counts so look for them to play well tonight. Dallas is 12-3 ATS also in their last 15 road games vs. a team with a winning % of greater than .600. While a lot of people might look at this game and see how Oklahoma City has dominated Dallas, I will instead look at the fact that Dallas is 16-5-1 ATS the last 22 meetings in Oklahoma City. I will also keep in mind that the Thunder's defense is not as solid as it once was and these are too many points in a game like this as Dallas is fighting for the playoffs.
Sacramento vs. Chicago-----I want to play against the Chicago Bulls tonight as they are in a let-down situation. After they beat the Miami Heat last Sunday then laid an egg vs. the Spurs. I like this Chicago team but not in this situation tonight and not laying this many points. The Bulls have now alternated ATS wins their last 4 home games and I expect this win- one, lose- one trend to continue.
Historically, this has been a series that Sacramento has owned in the past as they are 4-0 ATS the last 4 meetings, including a 99-70 win last month. A lot of 'squares' will say this is a revenge game for the Bulls to make up for their piss-poor 70 point performance and will be betting on the Bulls. I can agree that this is a revenge game and one the Bulls will want to win, but I like Sac to keep this game close. I feel Sacramento matches up well with the Bulls as they have enough role players to rotate in the frontcourt and to bang with Noah and Gibson. The Kings have three guys on the team that are all averaging 20+ points. I make note of this because I feel they are a valued underdog with proven scorers at the point (Isaiah Thomas), the forward position(Rudy Gay), and at the center (Cousins). When comparing stats of both teams over the last 5 games, the matchup fairly evenly. Overall, I think Sac is the better offensive team with multiple scoring options and the perfect complement of role players. Look for the Kings to hang in this game as this one comes down to the wire as the Kings get the cover.
Key Head-to-Head Trends: Sacramento is 7-1 ATS the last 8 meetings in Chicago. Sacramento is 4-0 ATS the last 4 meetings. The road team is 10-3 ATS the last 13 meetings.
Tennessee vs. Florida------I like Tennessee in this game today. Florida won both games in the regular season but I give Tennessee the big motivational and situational edge this afternoon. Tennessee is on the bubble with some bad losses this year and a win today will stamp their way into the tournament. The Vols are one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the nation as they are grabbing 12.3 offensive boards a game. The Vols are physical and the Gators are a defensive minded team, but the Vols are the same kind of team. These teams match up very well and I give Tennessee the edge in the paint. Stokes and Maymon are two bangers that will take it to Florida today.
Looking back at the last game when Florida visited Tennessee last month, the Vols actually shot 45.8% from the floor compared to 36% for Florida. Tennessee made some costly turnovers and didn't shoot the ball well at the free throw line that sealed their fate. Look for them to correct those mistakes for today's game. Looking closer, Tennessee is the better free throw shooting team as well on the season at 71% compared to 67% for Florida.
The Gators have the #1 seed locked in for the Tournament and this game means nothing to them while it means everything to Tennessee. Tennessee is on a 4-0 ATS win streak currently and are 5-2 ATS their last 7 neutral site games. While Florida has been blowing their last 4 opponents out, the situation today calls for a let-down and a lack-luster performance. The TENNESSEE VOLS will bring us home the bacon this afternoon as I will put the Florida Gators on upset alert. Let's grab these generous points in this defensive SEC game.
Washington vs. Orlando-----I like Orlando as a homedog that will cover the spread with ease. Washington has been good on the road at covering, but they are not used to playing the road favorite role. The Wizards are also not playing their best ball currently as they are on a 1-4 ATS streak their last 5 games.
Orlando is a team that has a solid starting rotation that is healthy now and they play their best ball on Fridays as they are 4-0 ATS their last 4 Friday Games. While Orlando is only 2-8 SU their last 10 games, I am fully convinced this is a game they WILL WIN. Jameer Nelson has been injured and he is back healthy running the point. Afflalo is the team leader and is a sharpshooter from behind the arch. Tobias Harris can be a mismatch for any team and Harris is the team's second best scorer. Nikola Vucevic is a big 7 footer that will grab a double-double night in and night out.
Washington has won both games vs. the Magic so far this season but they shot 62%and 69% from the three point on their home court. I expect the law of averages to return to normal as they travel on the road tonight. Orlando is a profitable 9-3 ATS their last 12 home games and this is a GREAT VALUE PLAY as I feel this line is inflated. When comparing stats for both teams (Washington -Road and Orlando- home), Orlando has the slightly better numbers .
Orlando is 4-0 ATS this year when inserted as a homedog of 4-5.5 points and I expect this trend to continue. The Wizards are not a team that can afford to give up points on the road. Dating back to 2008, they are 3-7 ATS as a road favorite of 2 to 5 points. This in fact will be the largest road spread they have been asked to give up in this time span. Washington was a road favorite when they played Milwaukee and Philly this year, but to put Orlando in this same category is disrespectful. I feel this line should be closer to a 'PK" and I will gladly take Orlando has a Live Homedog tonight
Iowa State vs. Kansas-----This is another same season double revenger and I like Iowa State to win to cover this spread with ease as I expect them to win the game straight up.
I have mentioned the bench of Iowa State in the past as they can go 9 or 10 deep. Yesterday, the Cyclones stuck with a 7 man rotation as Naz Long came up big with 14 points off the bench and with two key free throws to ice the game. All 5 starters can shoot the three ball as well for Iowa State and they are a difficult matchup for any team.
I'll give Iowa State the advantage at the point guard position with DeAndre Kane. Kane is a NBA ready point guard that is a matchup nightmare for opposing teams. Kane went for 21 and 22 points respectively vs. the Jayhawks this season. I will say that Wiggins are Melvin Ejim are equal and I will give Georges Niang the advantage over Perry Ellis. I will also give Iowa State the advantage with the deeper bench and then I give them another advantage with Kansas's big man Embiid being injured.
For Kansas, they are without Joel Embiid who is a NBA Lottery back as he is nursing a sore back. Although Kansas squeaked out a win in overtime yesterday, Embiid's absence will be missed today. In the two matchups vs. Iowa State this year, Embiid had 30 points/ 20 rebounds (10 offensive)/ 6 blocks. Now Kansas has to go to Tarik Black and Jamari Taylor who are nowhere nearly as talented. I look for Iowa State's Georges Niang to be the 'X' factor in this game as he can score on the inside and on the outside. Niang couldn't anything on the inside the first two games as Embiid was too tall in the paint and Niang had to settle for the outside jumper. Tonight he will be able to showcase his talent on the inside and outside. Look for Iowa State to play inspired basketball tonight as the Cyclones will be hungry for a win vs. the Jayhawks and I look for them to get the MUCH NEEDED WIN !
FSU vs. Virginia-----I like FSU in this neutral site game as it will be a defensive game and one that favors FSU. This is a same-season double revenger for FSU as Virginia won both meetings back in January. I will discount these losses a tad bit as FSU was in a January slump. They finished the season going 4-2 SU with losses to North Carolina and Syracuse and have developed a better team chemistry.
I like FSU and their height at all positions. All of their guards are 6'3" or taller. Senior Okaro White is a 6'8" forward who is versatile and can play in the post and the perimeter. They also have TWO seven footers that can clog up the lane. This is the longest team in the ACC and the FSU bench has some quality depth as well. I like the momentum they will be playing with as well coming off a win yesterday. It was a good tune-up game for this afternoon.
For Virginia, they are coming off a season ending loss at Maryland and I expect a 5 day lay-off to actually be a disadvantage for them. A lot of teams that have 5+ days of rest play their next game very poorly as they are a bit rusty. I expect this to be the case for Virginia. I also expect them to not be very motivated for this game after the tough overtime loss to Maryland.
In the two games this year when Virginia and FSU played, they committed 34 turnovers that really sealed their fate. The FSU defense was good and all other major statistics were almost equal. I will call for the 'law of averages' to do their job as we should see FSU hold the turnovers down to 10 or less and we will see a game played in the upper 50's or the lower 60's. Both defenses are holding their opponents to under 40% shooting from the floor and both teams shoot the three-ball with the same accuracy. This 6.5 point spread is very valuable in this defensive game and we will load up and take FSU today with my NCAAB EARLYBIRD SHOCKER as I put Virginia on UPSET ALERT.
Key Trend: FSU is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 neutral site games.
Arizona State vs. Stanford------I like Arizona State tonight in this Pac 10 conference game. These teams split the season series with each team winning on their home court and Stanford has actually won 7 of the last 10 matchups. I am not worried about that though as Arizona State has their best team in quite a while and will have the best player on the court tonight in Jahii Carson. This kid is a baller that is NBA ready. He can create on his own, dish the rock, and can hit the step back jumper as well. Carson has all the tools and I like him to break down the Stanford defense tonight. Arizona State also has Jermaine Marshall who is a big time player. Marshall gets up for big time games. Marshall put up 29 last year vs. Michigan State and 25 vs. Michigan when he played for Penn State. This year, he put up 29 in win over Arizona. Marshall is a three point specialist and he is coming off a bad shooting game vs. Oregon State as he went 1-for-8 from behind the arch. Marshall is too good of a shooter to be denied tonight. In the paint, Arizona State has a legit 7'2" center in Jordan Bachynski who is really came on strong this year. He was limited to only 15 minutes of play the last game vs. Stanford as he was in foul trouble and I also expect a strong performance from him. The rest of Arizona State's team is long and athletic at the guard position's and the forwards are physical as well.
For Stanford, they have a nice 1-2 punch with Randle and Powell but the rest of the rotation is questionable in my opinion. Stanford does have the height advantage but I look for Arizona State to take the ball to the big men and look to get Stanford in foul trouble early. Stanford's bench is non-existent and cannot be trusted. Stanford played last night against Washington State and it took a late surge to secure the lead. 4 of the 5 starters all logged 35+ minutes and I will question the endurance of these Stanford players down the stretch of this game.
Tonight we are getting an Arizona State that has fresh legs and can push the pace and wear Stanford out. I firmly believe that the backcourt duo of Marshall and Carson will exploit the Stanford defense and put on a brilliant performance. Look for the Sun-Devils to pull away in the second half and win this game in the 5-6 point range.
Houston @ Chicago----I like the Bulls tonight as a defensive home dog. They were in a tough spot on Tuesday night coming off the big win vs. the Heat while the Spurs were playing well-rested. So the loss did not surprise me as they were down by 20+ points early in the first half. Tonight, I feel like they will have shaken the cobwebs and will be ready to play ball vs. the Houston Rockets tonight.
While the Rockets are one of the NBA's hottest teams, their struggles do come on the road as they are 3-3 SU in their last 6 road games and they are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. The slower defensive style of play will be frustrating for the Rockets tonight and they are already in a tough spot as this is a sandwich game Houston as well. They still have a bad taste in their mouth from the loss to Oklahoma City on Tuesday night and have a game vs. the Miami Heat on deck. Oklahoma City laid the blueprint on how to beat Houston and I believe the Bulls will follow it. The Bulls will need to get back in transition, close out on shooters, and close out possessions with rebounds and communication and second and third efforts and they will win this game. These are things that the Bulls are already known for doing. Noah, Gibson, and Boozer in the paint are a force to deal with. DJ Augustin off the bench is instant offense as well and I like the groove the Bulls are in currently.
I will note that the Bulls have not lost back-to-back home games since December. Chicago is 12-2 SU and ATS in their last 14 games following a SU and ATS loss and they are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games playing on 1 days rest. The Bulls are holding opponents to 90 ppg when playing at home this year which is best in the NBA. Houston struggles vs. good defensive teams and I fully expect another struggle tonight. The Bulls also have the better bench which I also expect to be a deciding factor in this game. Look for defense to win this game as the Bulls will get the cover tonight on Primetime television.
Penn State vs. Minnesota-----Penn State is a team that under-achieved for most of the year before finally playing like the team they are capable over the last 2 weeks of the season as they are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.This game here is a rematch from last Sunday when Minnesota cruised to a 81-63 win as a 7 point home favorite. The Gophers had the hot hand as they shot 56% from the floor paving the way for them. The first matchup this season saw Minnesota win at Penn State by 3 points, 68-65. Penn State had a 5 point lead at halftime, but Minnesota took the lead in the final minute of the game. DJ Newbill had a terrible game as he was in foul trouble and ended up fouling out. What is even more important about that game is that Newbill was held scoreless as he battled the foul trouble the whole game. If Newbill would have produced, Penn State would have won this game and I expect Newbill to have a strong game tonight.
This game today will be played on a neutral and I expect them to shoot around 42-44% from the floor as it should be noted that Minnesota is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games. Matching both of these teams up on paper, they are very even on both sides of the ball. I will look at this game as a same season double revenge game for Penn State and one they feel like they can win. Penn State has two guards by the name of DJ Newbill and Tim Frazier that lead this Penn State team. In tournament time, I love great backcourts and I have been high on these guys all year long. These guys are averaging 33 points a game combined and are both solid free throw shooters.
As far as motivation for this game, Minnesota is on the bubble and alot of the public will be playing on them tonight but I have no problem fading the public as I smell an upset brewing. For Penn State, they might have nothing to play for--but they will play this game to be a spoiler. Trust me, they don't like Minnesota after the Gophers have beaten them the last 4 matchups. Look for this one to come down to the wire with the Nittany Lions getting the cover.
Dallas @ Utah------I am surprised to see Dallas laying this many points on the road as they are traveling in the altitude to play Utah in a back-to-back set. This has been a tough place for Dallas to play as well as they are 5-14-1 ATS when playing at Utah the last 20 meetings and being this big of a road favorite is not a role they are used to either. Dating back to 2012, when Dallas is a road favorite of 4-6 points, they are 3-7 ATS the last 10 tries. This season when Dallas is laying between 4-5.5 points, they are 2-6 ATS so this is just not a good number for them to ask to cover tonight. Historically, Utah is 3-0 SU against Dallas also the last meetings in Utah and the home team in this series is 8-0 SU the last 8 meetings.
For Utah, they are coming off a home loss after their long road trip which was I expected but by this being their second game back home, I am looking for a better effort and a winning one. I like Utah's team currently as they are 100% healthy and have a starting 5 that can compete along with Kanter and Alec Burks coming off the bench. The Jazz are playing good ball at home as well as they are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. That goes perfectly with the fact that Dallas is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Look for Utah to pick up the easy cover for us tonight.
Sacramento @ Philly-----I know how bad Philly is but this is too many points to pass up tonight. Sacramento is now playing their 3rd road game in 4 nights and they already lost to Philly 113-104 on 1/02 when Philly was a 8.5 point road dog. There is not cause for a 17 point swing in this line. I feel Sacramento should be not more than a 3 point road favorite, even with Philly having not won a game since January 29th. This is a value play as I feel we are getting an extra 5 points as the linesmakers keep inflating these lines more and more. Philly is the laughing stock of the NBA and they are being made fun of on national television by ESPN announcers. These guys are paid professionals and I expect them to play with some pride in this game here as it is a winnable one.
Historically, Philly is 9-1 SU their last games vs. Sacramento and 9-1 ATS so we also have a powerful head-to-head trend here. Taking a closer look at Sac, they have been installed as a 8-8.5 favorite twice this year going 0-2 ATS in these games (one being to Philly). Let's take Philly as a homedog tonight as they have the historical trend edges and will be playing with a bit more pride after TV announcers have been making jokes about them all this week.
Dallas @ Golden State------I like Dallas getting the points tonight as Dallas is 6-2 ATS the last 8 meetings in Golden State. Dallas is coming off an impressive win vs. the Indiana Pacers. I say it was impressive because Dirk Nowitzki had a bad shooting night and only scored 14 points going 3-for-14 from the floor. Monta Ellis and Devin Harris picked up the slack though scoring 40 points combined for the Mavs. It is rare for Dirk to have such a bad shooting night and I expect him to have a big game tonight. Dallas is in a fierce battle for playoff positioning with Phoenix, Memphis, and Golden State. Devin Harris is finally healthy and I like him backing up Monta Ellis at the point guard position. I also like the Mavs frontcourt help coming off the bench with Dejaun Blair and Branan Wright which gives this team a solid 8 man rotation.
This will be the third matchup between these two teams this season with the series even at 1-1. Dallas was a 6 point dog on 12/11 when they traveled to Golden State and lost only by two points 95-93. Dallas had the lead going into the 4th quarter before Curry his the game winner with1.5 seconds left. I will note that Devin Harris did not play in this game but with him coming off the bench, I feel he is a game changer and a big boost for this Dallas team.
While Golden State is 11-4 SU their last 15 games, I will still note that they are only 20-10 SU at home this season with some questionable losses. I will also note that many of their home wins have been very close games. 6 of these 20 wins have come by 6 or less points as well. I will also note that Golden State is only 2-6 ATS as a favorite of 4-5.5 points this season while Dallas is 4-2 ATS when an underdog of 4-5.5. points.
Overall, Dallas actually has a higher shooting percentage on the season at 47% from the floor. They are just as solid when playing on the road and that is another reason why I like them tonight. Defensively, they do give up a few more points than Golden State, but I feel like this game tonight will have a NBA intensity to it and Dallas will buckle down and make stops when they need to. Dallas has been one the BEST Road Warriors in the NBA going 41-17 ATS in their last 58 road games and they are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Knowing they are one of the most consistent road teams in the NBA and they are healthy in the backcourt along with the fact that Dirk should have a bounce back game; I clearly find this as the Top Rated NBA play on the board tonight. Look for the Dallas bench to be the sparkplug and to out play the Golden State bench and for this to be another deciding factor.
San Fran vs. BYU-----This is the semi-finals of the WCC tournament which will be played in Las Vegas Nevada. San Fran posted its highest WCC victory total this year since 1977 and a win tonight will give them a shot at the finals to get a spot in the NCAA tournament. This is a double revenge game for San Francisco after taking a 7 and a 5 point loss to BYU this season. San Fran was clearly in both games but came up short at the end. I have to expect them to seal the deal tonight vs. BYU.
The Dons of San Francisco are playing their best ball of the season currently winning 6 straight and 8 of their last 10. When looking at both teams offensive numbers, they matchup very evenly but I feel San Fran has the advantage on the defensive side of the ball. San Fran is holding opponents to 59 ppg over their last 5 games at 38.8% shooting from the floor. They have also been out rebounding their opponents and I like them to out rebound BYU as the Cougars are not a good rebounding team. San Fran has 3 players that are averaging 6 rebounds or more a game and their whole starting 5 is shooting 45% or better from the floor. The Dons start 4 players that average double figures. They are a really balanced team and are the better team in this matchup tonight although most squares will fail to realize this. San Francisco is really strong physically and that will wear down BYU . BYU does have a bit more size inside, but they are not a team that likes to bang in the paint. San Fran has also played good on neutral site games lately going 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 neutral site games while BYU has always struggled against the number on a neutral site going 19-39 ATS in their last 58 neutral site games. The underdog has had great success in this series as of late and I expect that trend to continue as the underdog is 4-1- ATS the last 5 meetings. Look for San Fran to cash in for us with ease tonight.
Saint Mary vs. Gonzaga-----I like Saint Mary's to hang in this game and cover the spread as this line is a bit inflated as the linesmakers have adjusted after Gonzaga beat Saint Mary's 75-47 last week. It was a terrible loss for Saint Mary's and I feel this is a game where they will play for respect and pride, not to mention they need to win this tournament to get a spot in the NCAA tournament. When these teams played back in January, Gonzaga was a 6.5 point favorite and they won easily 65-51. Looking closer Gonzaga is now 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS the last 5 meetings vs. Saint Mary's. The linesmakers have seen this and that is why this line is inflated. Seeing the Zags were a 6.5 point home favorite in January and now a 6 point favorite on a neutral; this is an error and an over compensation. The public will be heavy on Gonzaga tonight and this is a perfect opportunity to fade the public and to cash in with Saint Mary's as their pride is on the line.
I will make a few notes about the 75-47 defeat they suffered last week. Saint Mary's shot 23% from the floor which is almost impossible but they somehow did it. They went 7-for-34 (20%) from 2-point range and I expect a much better showing tonight. I also do not expect Gonzaga to shoot 56% from the floor like they did. I will play the 'bounce' factor where the law of averages will balance out and we will see a much more motivated Saint Mary's team with a better performance as there is definitely a bad taste left in their mouth.
This is a Saint Mary's team that has shooters on the perimeter with Holt, Walker, and Carter. When I put both of these teams on paper I see them very even as far as offensive efficiency is concerned. Gonzaga is the better defensive team but again, I feel like Saint Mary's has the motivational edge after just suffering a 28 point home loss to Gonzaga. Their defensive intensity will be turned up a notch. We will fade the public tonight and play on Saint Mary's as this is an inflated line with value and I would not be surprised to see them upset Gonzaga tonight. We will take these valuable points as the Gaels will ca$h our ticket with ease tonight.
Michigan State @ Ohio State-----I like Ohio State this afternoon in a same season revenger on Senior Day. The Buckeyes have struggled this year and have underperformed. For seniors Aaron Craft and Lenzelle Smith , this is a perfect opportunity for them to save their season and head into the Big 10 Tournament with momentum. After Ohio State won 7 of 8 games in February, they took two unexpected losses this month to Penn State and Indiana. I really like the situation for them today as they can bounce back as they have had a full week of rest to get ready for this game. HC Matta has been working hard with the kids in practice making sure everybody is on the same page.
Historically, the Home Team is now 5-0 SU the last 5 meetings, winning all games by 3 points or more. I also think it should be noted that this is the smallest number Ohio State has been asked to lay at home and I feel the value is with this team. I will also note that there is a nice system play that ties into this game. We have an unranked team giving a ranked team points. When this happens, we want to look at playing on the unranked home team that is laying the points.
When comparing both teams, Ohio State is the superior defensive team holding opponents to 58 ppg on the season. At this time of the season, I will favor a defensive minded team at home that has a lot at stake. I will also play a bit of a 'bounce' factor in this game as Ohio State is only shooting 25% from the 3 point line in their last 5 games. Playing on their own gym, I have the feeling that they will make more than the 3.6 three pointers they are averaging over the last 5 games. For the season, the Buckeyes are a much better perimeter shooting team at home and I think that their outside shooting plus the tenacious Buckeye Defense will be the keys to this game. Ohio State has been known to step it up at home against good teams as they are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. Look for The Buckeyes to play their best game of the season this afternoon as they get a much needed win and cover vs. the Spartans.
Miami @ Chicago------I like the Bulls in this game as a defensive homedog that are 7-3 SU and ATS since the All-Star Break. The Bulls beat the Heat earlier this season as a 4.5 point homedog . Boozer, Noah, and Gibson combined for 63 points and 30 rebounds as they dominated the paint. This will be the 4th matchup this season between these two teams with the home team going 3-0 SU and ATS so far and I like for this trend to continue.
While many squares will address the fact that Miami is coming off back-to-back losses and they have to be a 'Lock' for today, I completely disagree. I will note that Miami had a 3 game losing streak earlier this year. These were all road games where Miami has struggled this year, especially with teams that are more physical . I will look at the fact that the Bulls are back to their old ways with a defensive brand of basketball. They are holding teams to 91 ppg over the last 5 games. I will look at the fact that the Bulls are coming off a home loss to Memphis. Their defense did the job only allowing 85 points, but the offense went cold in the second half. Dunleavy, Butler, and Hinrich went 7-for-23 from the floor and these guys will have a better game against a Miami defense that is not as suffocating as the Memphis Grizzlies.
The Bulls as I have mentioned are tough in the frontcourt as their 12 offensive rebounds a game supports that. When playing at home, the Bulls are only allowing 89.6 ppg and I expect this to be another one of those lower scoring NBA playoff intensity games with the Bulls covering with ease. I will also note that Miami is 1-5 ATS this year as a favorite of 4-4.5 points while Chicago is 5-1 ATS as an underdog of 4-4.5 points. As a matter of fact, it should be noted that Miami is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games this season when inserted as a road favorite of 4-6 points. The Bulls are 16-5 ATS (76%) their last 21 games vs. the Eastern Conference and are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU Loss. I like for the home team with the better defense to come up big this afternoon as we will FADE the PUBLIC with confidence.
Virginia @ Maryland-----I like the way Maryland has been playing at home and I like them this afternoon as a homedog. They are 6-2 SU at home in conference play this season with the two losses being by 2 to Syracuse and by 4 to Pittsburgh. I feel like Maryland matches up well with Virginia and I like them to be motivated today as is this their last home game of the season. Not only will this be their last home game of the season, this will be their last home game as a member of the ACC as the Terps are moving to the Big 10 next year. I give Maryland the situational and motivational edge as Virginia already has the ACC locked up and really has nothing to play for. The game is expected to attract only the second sellout crowd of the season and I expect the crowd to be a big factor in this game.
While Virginia is one of the nation's hottest teams after winning 13 straight, I will note the momentum that Maryland is playing with coming off a strong second half showing vs. Virginia Tech earlier this week. While the Terrapins really don't have a shot at getting in the NCAA tournament, their star guard Dez Wells said, " I think it sets us up really well [for the ACC tournament]. "We have the right components to beat them. They're a great team, but I think they're ready to be beat and I think we can do it."
When Maryland played Virginia earlier this season on the road, the Terrapins actually had a 1 point lead at halftime and played the Cavs tough before Virginia pulled away late. Maryland matches up well with the Cavs and will pose problems with them I do believe. Maryland has lengthy guards and physical forwards. Maryland has a balanced starting rotation as 4 guys are averaging double figures while Faust is chipping in 9.7 ppg.
In closing, Virginia is coming off their 13th straight win. The pressure is on and it is hard to keep producing those same winning performances, not to mention they don't have much motivation for this game here. Maryland only has two home losses in conference play with the largest of those two losses was by 4 to Pittsburgh. While I look for Maryland to win this game straight up, the 4 points they are getting at home will be more than enough as the Terrapins are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games and are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
SMU @ Memphis-----This is a same season revenge game for Memphis after SMU destroyed them 87-72 earlier this year but I like SMU in this game as they are a valuable underdog as they are the more efficient offensive team and are the better defensive team as well.SMU shot 57% from the floor in that game as their big man Markus Kennedy went a perfect 10-for-10 from the floor and had a double-double as he schooled Memphis's big man Shaq Goodwin. SMU could have won this game by a bigger margin but they only shot 12-24 (50%) from the foul line.
SMU is coming off a loss to Louisville and this is not a bad thing. Louisville just has their number as the Cardinals beat them twice this year. SMU has not lost back-to-back games this year and in fact they have responded strongly in games coming off a loss. In conference play this year and when coming off a loss they have responded with 4,9, 15,and 17 point wins. In fact they were coming off a loss when they played Memphis the first time this season and got the impressive 15 point win.
I like SMU as they are the #8 team in the nation in shooting percentage at 49.3%. What I like even more is that they are #3 in the nation in defense as they are only allowing opponents to shoot 37.2% from the floor holding teams to 61.9 ppg. HC Larry Brown has really done a great job with this SMU team and I will give Larry Brown the coaching advantage today as well over HC Pastnor. I really believe that Larry Brown has is kids believing and he has them playing defense and has gotten great productivity out of the kids in practice. What I really like about SMU is their percentages do not drop off very much when they play on the road. They still play defense holding teams to below 40% from the floor. The Mustangs have a deep team with a true point guard to go along with multiple players that can be used on the perimeter. SMU will usually go 10 deep as Brown looks to find an advantage with his depth. SMU does not force things either. They look for quality shots and that is the reason they are shooting 49% from the floor on the season. I like defensive underdogs and today we have a dandy . Look for Larry Brown to have his kids ready for this game and put up a valiant effort in one that ca$hes easily for us.
Trends: SMU is 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games overall. SMU is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Memphis is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall. The UNDERDOG is 8-3 ATS the last 11 meetings when these two teams play each other.
Saint John's @ Marquette------Saint John's is the most talented team in the Big East in my opinion and after a slow start this season, they are finally showcasing their talent and are primed to punch a ticket in the NCAA tournament. While they are currently on the bubble, a win today then a few wins on their own gym in the Big East tournament will seal the deal. I like the situation they are in today as well.
Saint John's had lost two straight and responded with a win over DePaul to get back on track. They only won by 8 points but the game but the game wasn't that close. Saint John's was up by 20 in the second half before they let DePaul make a run at the end of the game. Saint John's Rysheed Jordan did not play in that game either and if he would have played, I am sure the final margin of victory would have been larger. Jordan is a 6'4" guard that is HC Lavin's highest rated recruit in his Saint John's tenure. His speed,length, athleticism, and ability to get to the rim are impressive. The Red Storm is the most athletic team in the Big East and they are deep as well.
Saint John's won the first matchup this season 74-59 against Marquette. They did it by playing defense recording 12 blocks and DeAngelo Harrison broke out of his shooting slump with 27 points. Playing on the road today I do not expect them to have any problems either. I would like to look at Saint John's last 5 conference road games. They lost by 3 @ Villanova, won @ Seton Hall, won @ Providence (something Marquette couldn't do), lost by 3 @ Creighton, and won by 17 @ Butler. While Saint John's only lost by 3 points to Villanova and Creighton, I feel like it should be noted that Marquette lost by 17 @ Villanova and by 18 @ Creighton. I will use this as deciding factor this afternoon as Saint John's has played much better than Marquette vs. common opponents. Marquette is coming off a deflating double overtime loss as well that probably just erased their Tournament chances and I feel they are overvalued in this game as Saint John's is just the better team that is playing better basketball currently. Let's take the point with Saint John's this afternoon as this is a No Brainer.
Trends: Saint John's is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall Saint John's is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games. Saint John's is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Saturday games. Marquette is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Marquette is 1-8 ATS in their last 9 Saturday games.
Indiana @ Houston-----This is a revenge game for the Rockets after getting embarrassed by the Pacers 114-81 back in December. The Rockets have now won 13 of their last 15, going 10-5 ATS. While they might be a popular pick by the public tonight, I like the defensive minded Indiana Pacers as an underdog. The Pacers have only been an underdog 7 times this year and it needs to be noted that they are 5-2 ATS in these games. The Pacers have the #1 defense in the NBA only allowing 91.6 ppg as they are also the #4 team in defending the 3-point shot. Indiana is coming off back to back losses which is very unusual for this team. This is only the second time all season Indiana has lost back-to-back games. The first time it happened was back in December when they lost to Detroit and then Miami. Well, guess who their next opponent was?? You guessed it....It was the Houston Rockets and they beat them easily. So tonight is the same situation and it makes it better because Indiana has been inserted as an underdog. This is a 10.5 point swing from when Indiana was a 6 point favorite when they played at home and a bit too much in my opinion. With the addition of Evan Turner who is coming off the bench, Indiana has upgraded on offense. They also have defensive depth coming off the bench with Mahinmi, Scola, and Chris Copeland.
The Pacers are now 4-0 SU and ATS the last 4 meetings and I look for them to make it 5-0 SU and ATS after tonight. Trends: Indiana is 14-3 ATS in their last 17 vs. the NBA Southwest. Indiana is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. Houston is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win of more than 10 points.
Southern Illinois vs. Northern Iowa----Northern Iowa is my dark horse to win the Missouri Conference Valley Championship and it starts tonight as they will win this game easily vs. Southern Illinois. For beginners, Northern Iowa has in my opinion the best power forward in the Missouri Valley Conference. He is averaging 15.4 ppg and 7.7 rpg this season. Tuttle is averaging 20.2 ppg over his last 5 games, including a 19 point performance against Southern Illinois last week. I also like Nate Buss who is a 6'9" forward for Northern Iowa who missed some games last month but now is fully healthy and Buss is adding 11 ppg and 5 rpg and shooting 50% from behind the arch on the season. Northern Illinois also has the size advantage for this game and I expect them to use it well.
For Southern Illinois, they are lead by Desmar Jackson. Jackson leads the team point per game, rebounds a game, assist a game, and steals per game also. That is not a good sign as that tells me that Southern Illinois relies too heavily on one man. And while Jackson leads the Saluki's in all major offensive categories, he ALSO leads the team in turnovers and fouls committed. Basketball is a team sport and Northern Iowa has the much better quality team and I'm looking for them to win this game by double digits. In closing, I like Northern Iowa for a number of reasons. First, they have the better starting 5. Second, they have the best player on the court, Tuttle. Third, they have an advantage in the frontcourt that should be exploited. Fourth, they have a 1.76 assist:turnover ratio over the last 5 games while Southern Illinois has a sub-par 0.79 assist:turnover ratio. And my 5th and final advantage is that Northern Illinois HC Ben Jacobsen is the more experienced coach and the better coach in my opinion. Look for them to get the easy win tonight by 11-13 points. Play on Northern Iowa
Miami @ San Antonio-----This is a rematch of the NBA Finals and one that will have an NBA Finals intensity to it. San Antonio traveled to Miami in January and lost 113-101 as a 3.5 point underdog. So there is still a bad taste in the Spurs mouth from last year when the Spurs were up 3-2 in the Finals and Miami came back to steal the series. In the game that was played in January, Danny Green, Kawhii Leonard, and Thiago Splitter were all injured and tonight they are all healthy. These three guys are all starters and now the Spurs can get instant offense with Belinelli , Ginobli, and Diaw coming off the bench. I like the Spurs tonight to get the win and the cover at home tonight. Like I said, this game will have a playoff intensity to it, and the Spurs will be the more motivated team to settle the score . They have the advantage in the paint with Splitter healthy and I like them to out rebound the Heat and get some easy second chance baskets that will be the difference in the game. I also like the depth of the Spurs as their bench is the deepest in the NBA and HC Popovich will use it effectively. Look for San Antonio to pull away in this game in the same fashion the Houston Rockets did on Tuesday night and win this game by 7-8 points. Play on San Antonio
Villanova @ Xavier-----I like Villanova to get the easy cover tonight. Villanova beat Xavier 81-58 earlier this year and Xavier has struggled with the Power teams in the Big East this year. To make it worse, Xavier's big man, Matt Stainbrook is out for the season with a strained MCL. Stainbrook is a big 6'10" center that was averaging 11 ppg and 8 rebounds a game and Villanova will have the big advantage in the paint with Pinkston and Ochefu that will be able to get some easier shots and also some extra rebounds.
Villanova is also a team that is loaded with guards and they can knock down the 3-pointer with ease and in abundance. Villanova is also one of the few teams in the Big East that plays just as well on the road as they do at home. Villanova is shooting 46% from the floor on the road and 40% from the 3 point line. They almost shoot twice as many 3-pointers as Xavier and I expect this to turn into an extra 4-5 points for Villanova. Villanova is also the better free throw shooting team at 76%, compared to 67% for Xavier. Not only do I like Villanova to out-shoot Xavier, I like them to win the battle on the boards with Stainbrook's injury. This is huge for Xavier and his absence cannot be replaced immediately. Without a legit scoring threat in the paint for Xavier, Villanova's defense will be more effective and I look for them to pressure the guards of Xavier a bit more and force some turnovers as well. Look for Villanova to get the easy cover tonight and to win this game with ease. Play on Villanova
Dayton @ Saint Louis-----I like the upperclassmen of Saint Louis to get a comfortable win tonight against a Dayton team they already beat this year 67-59 on the road. Saint Louis only has two home losses this season and I will disregard the home loss to Duquesne. They were in a look-ahead spot and took Duquesne for granted. After their 19 game win streak, they are now coming off back-to-back losses and Saint Louis will be focused to make amends for these two losses. Playing on their own gym, I like them tonight. This is a favorable line also for the Billikens as they are 0-6 ATS their last 6 games and the line has been lowered 2.5 points in my opinion. Although Saint Louis is still leading the A-10, they have not yet clinched the title. They need to win here tonight or for Saint Josephs to lose to clinch and I will give use this as extra motivation as well. For Dayton, this is a tough spot for them as they are coming off a big home win vs. UMass and will be playing their final home game on Saturday vs. Richmond.
Saint Louis starts 4 seniors and their 7 man rotation consist of 5 seniors, 1 junior, and 1 sophomore. This is a very experienced team that will bounce back in convincing fashion tonight. Saint Louis wins ball games with their defense and I like them to hold Dayton around 60 points tonight. The Billickens are the #1 team in the nation defending the 3-point shot. In the first match-up this year, they held Dayton to 4-14 (29%) from behind the arch and 30% from the floor. I firmly believe defense will win this game and Dayton is a team that lacks on the defensive end as they try to outscore opponents. I will note that Dayton is allowing opponents to shoot 45% from the floor on the road while Saint Louis is holding opponents to 39% from the floor when playing at home. I will also note that Saint Louis is the better free throw shooting team and Dayton is allowing opponents to shoot 29 free throws a game on the road.
In closing, again this is a SENIOR heavy team of Saint Louis with plenty of experience. I will give Saint Louis (+4 points) for playing on their home court in their final game as the seniors will be EXTRA MOTIVATED. I will then give Saint Louis (+5 points) with the advantage at the free throw line. I will then give Saint Louis a (+6 point advantage) with their defense/ and Dayton's lack of. I see the Billickens ROLLING BIG tonight by 14-17 points.
Houston @ Orlando-----After a hard fought win vs. the Miami Heat last night, I expect a let-down tonight as the Houston Rockets travel to face Orlando as the Magic are getting a handful of points tonight. This is a back-to-back spot for the Rockets and I will note that Houston is on a 0-3 SU and ATS run on the second of a back-to-back road game. It should also be noted that Orlando is 8-0 ATS the last 8 matchups vs. Houston. Orlando is playing much better basketball at home as well going 7-1 SU and ATS their last 8 home games. The one loss was a 5 point loss to the Memphis Grizzlies before the All-Star Break. It was just a bad shooting night for Orlando vs. the #2 defense of Memphis. I will also note that Orlando is 7-1 ATS this year as an underdog of 3-5.5 points . Houston does not like to play defense and that is another reason I like Orlando tonight. They are giving up an average of 105 points a game on the road and Orlando has a team that can run with the Rockets, although Houston will really not be in the mood to run tonight. Dwight Howard, Jeremy Lin, and Chandler Parsons were all listed as questionable last night but suited up to play the NBA Champs. I have to think that tonight Houston might take a breather to get ready for three playoff teams they have on deck. (Indiana, Portland, and Oklahoma City). I will call this a sandwich game as well as the game vs. Indiana on Friday is a big revenge game after the Pacers embarrassed the Rockets 114-81 on 12/20/13. These two teams met back in December with Houston winning 98-88. Oralndo's center Nikola Vucevic 14 ppg/ 10 rpg) did not play in that game and he is an equalizer to Dwight Howard in the paint. Tobias Harris did not play either and Harris is adding 14 ppg/ 7 rpg. I look for Vucevuc to play an important role tonight as well as Tobias Harris. Orlando will also be the fresher team tonight as they are playing on 2 days rest. Look for Orlando to catch Houston napping tonight and sneak away with the cover. This is a live home dog that will be barking and cashing our ticket when the score goes final. Play on Orlando Magic
Duke @ Wake Forest-----I like Wake getting the double digits at home tonight in their last home game of the season tonight. The situation clearly favors Wake as Duke has a season ending revenger on deck vs. North Carolina. Duke is also locked in for a first round bye in the ACC tournament so there is no real motivation for this game as well.
Wake has under-performed all year long (1-8 ATS L9), but I have to think they will be fired up for this game tonight. The home team has cashed in nicely in this matchup as of late going 8-2 ATS the last 10 meetings and 20-7 ATS the last 27 meetings. Last year Duke laid 13.5 points when they traveled to Wake and only won by 5 points, 75-70. While Duke has a better team this year, Wake also has a better team although their record does not support it. Wake Forest is a team that has size to match-up with Duke and they will play their style of the Princeton offense.
I will look at the first game this year that was played at Duke and see the Duke won this game 83-63 as a 17.5 point home favorite. Looking closer though, it should be noted that Wake's point guard and leading scorer, Codi Miller-McIntyre did not play in that game as he was injured. He is healthy tonight and he will help this Wake team keep the game close. Also looking at the first game, Wake shot a respectable 48.7% from the floor. The difference in the game was that Duke drained 12 three-pointers. I do not expect Duke to hit this many three's tonight playing on the road. Wake is holding opponents to 28% shooting from the 3 point line on the season when playing at home and holding teams to 65 ppg. I see this game with a final score in the 69-65 range with Wake getting the easy cover.
I feel at this time of the year, it is best to examine the stats of both teams over the last 5 games. It can be noted that Duke is only shooting 41.4% as a team (31% 3 PT) while Wake is shooting 46.7% as a team from the floor. Duke has played some terrible shooting teams other than Syracuse and that is the only reason they are still winning. I am not saying that Wake is a great shooting team, but seeing they shot 48.7% in the first game vs. the Blue Devils, I have to believe they will post similar stats tonight. Look for Wake to knock down 7 or more three pointers tonight and that will be enough to cover this spread. The Deamon Deacons will need to be assertive on the boards as well and I feel they will be energized for their last home game. It would not surprise me at all if Coach K gives some of his guys some rest as well to make sure everybody is ready for the game vs. Carolina on Saturday and for the ACC Tournament as well. Looking closer, Wake's worst home loss was by 10 points this year. That was against Syracuse (who was ballin' at that time) and Wake was in the game the whole time until the last two minutes of the game. Their struggles came beyond the arch (3-20 3 PT 15%) against that 3-2 zone, but Duke does not defend as well and I see Wake coming up with some big shots at home. This double digit spread with Wake tonight is my 1000* NCAAB LINESMAKERS ERROR GAME of the WEEK and one that should cash in for us with ease.
LA Clippers @ Phoenix-----I like Phoenix in this spot tonight. They have not had to travel much since the All-Star Break and I see them as the fresher and healthier team tonight. This will be their 9th game since the Break and only two of those games have been on the road. It can also be noted that the Suns played the Clippers earlier this year in L.A. and beat them easily 107-88.
The Clippers are on a 4 game winning streak, but with Jamal Crawford out the lineup, this takes instant offense away from their bench. The Clippers did pickup Glen Davis and Hedo Turkoglu but I do not think this helps them out. It does give them depth in the frontcourt, but the Suns will pose a matchup problem with the Clippers tonight. Gerald Green has become a legit scoring threat and Channing Frye is a knock down perimeter shooter that always poses problems for opposing teams. This is a dangerous Suns lineup that is in a solid groove with the Morris brothers coming off the bench. I really love this rotation along with the speedster Ishmael Smith who is coming off the bench averaging 5.4 apg over the last 7 games.
Looking closer, the Suns are one of the best teams in the NBA defending the perimeter as they are ranked #2 in the NBA in defending the 3 point shot at 33%. This stat is important as the Clippers are already a bad shooting 3 point team (ranked 23rd in the NBA) and with Crawford out for this game and the Suns tough perimeter defense, I see this as the potential difference maker in this is a live home dog tonight. Head-to-Head Trends: Phoenix is 4-1 ATS the last 5 meetings in Phoenix
Marquette @ Providence-----This is a Providence team that is playing their best ball of the season currently and they will be seeking revenge tonight from a 61-50 loss @ Marquette earlier this season. Providence only scored 14 points in the first half and they went 2-for-17 from 3-point range for the game. Playing at home tonight, I expect them to come out, build a lead, and to never look back. Looking closer, I will note that Marquette is 10-0 SU their last 10 games vs. Providence and I note this as the seniors of Providence will be motivated for this game as they have yet to beat the Golden Eagles and I give them the BIG MOTIVATIONAL edge tonight on Senior Night. This Providence team has now won 3 of their last 4 games going 4-0 ATS. The one loss was a tough overtime loss to a Very Good Villanova team. This will be senior night for Providence and I expect a home crowd to give this team a nice boost as this will be senior point guard Bryce Cotton's last game. Cotton is the team leader scoring 21.6 ppg and dishing 5.8 assist a game. Cotton is the team's best three- point shooter as well and is money in the bank on the foul line at 84.8%. As Cotton is the floor general, Kadeem Batts is a 5th year senior who is a power forward who has worked hard to get into tip-top shape and has been able to play about 35 minutes a game lately and has had double-doubles his last two games. This is a solid starting 5 that Providence has with Harris, Fortune, and Henton rounding them off. They also have a true 7 footer in Carson Desrosiers who can give a nice defensive presence in the paint when needed.
It can be noted that Providence is the #1 free throw shooting team in the nation while Marquette is ranked 205th at 68.9%. Marquette also struggles from the perimeter as they are only shooting 31% behind the arch and I expect them to struggle as this is a back-to-back conference road game. Marquette's defense is allowing 74 ppg on the road and opposing teams are shooting 41% from the three point line. Knowing that Marquette is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 road games and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall, that fits in nicely knowing that Providence is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall and are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games.
In closing, I would like to compare stats of both teams over the last 5 games as I feel this is indicative of how both teams are performing currently. Opponents are shooting 43% from the 3 point line vs. Marquette while Providence is holding opponents to 30% shooting from the 3-point line. Marquette is shooting 69% on free throws while Providence is shooting 79% free throws. Providence is the hotter team currently and they will win this game comfortably in the 9-12 point range.
Ohio State @ Indiana-----I like Ohio State this afternoon as this is a 'bounce' game for both teams. Ohio State just got swept by Penn State as they went cold from the floor in the second half. Look for Lenzelle Smith to have a Big Game against an Indiana team that does not guard the perimeter very well. Senior point guard Aaron Craft also committed 5 turnovers and I like him to play a great game today as well. Before that road loss, Ohio State had won 3 Big Road games @ Wisconsin, @ Iowa, and @ Illinois. So they are fully capable of winning on the road and will bring that Buckeye Defensive intensity to this game. Ohio State is ranked 6th in the nation holding opponents to 58 ppg and are 2nd in the nation holding opponents to 27% shooting from the 3 point line.
Ohio State has plenty to play for as they are trying to improve on their seeding for the NCAAB tournament. They are probably looking at being a #6 -#8 seed currently and they know they can improve their seeding by starting out with a win today. It doesn't help losing twice to the last place team, Penn State, and the Buckeyes know this. HC Matta will have his team ready to go. Also, Ohio State would like to get a first round bye in the Big 10 Conference Championship and again; a win today will improve their chances. Ohio State is a talented team, make no mistake about it. They just tend to have some wasted offensive possessions but I really like the guards, Aaron Craft and Shannon Scott, who will lead Ohio State to an easy win this afternoon.
For Indiana, they are coming off a satisfying 93-86 win vs. Iowa on Thursday. The 93 points they scored is almost unheard of as they are a sub-par shooting team and their shooting percentage will dip lower against a stingy Ohio State team today. It can be noted that the Hoosiers have struggled lately to put together back-to-back solid games as well as they are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win. Will Sheehey had a career 30 point outburst against Iowa and I look for him to return back to the normal today. The Hoosiers only are shooting 42.5 % from the floor vs. conference opponents and Ohio State should lower that to about 38-39% I feel. The other deciding factor that I will put into the equation is that Indiana is turning the ball over 14 times a game in conference play while Ohio State forces 13 turnovers a game. This turnover differential should equate for +8-+10 points for Ohio State. The last time these two teams played was last year when Ohio State traveled to Indiana and were a 7.5 point road dog and won the game straight up, 67-58. They held the Hoosiers to 39% shooting from the floor and I see the final score today being very similar. Ohio State is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning SU record and are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games. Historically, they have owned the Hoosiers as well as they are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 meetings. Ohio State makes a statement today with a comfortable game.
Creighton @ Xavier-----This is a great matchup for Xavier and a game they will win at home. Xavier has struggled vs. the standard Big East competition this year, but they can play with this Creighton team (former Missouri Valley Conference team) on their home court. Xavier is 15-1 SU at home this year and is coming off a confidence building win over Saint John's. As Xavier is on the bubble ranked 54th in the RPI, a win tonight more than likely get them into the NCAA Tournament. I like the situation with Xavier coming back home as well as they just played 7 of their last 10 games on the road.
Xavier is suited to play with Creighton and I will give them the advantage in the paint with 6'10" Matt Stainbrook who is averaging 11 ppg/ 8.1 rpg and Isaiah Philmore who likes to bang around the basket as well. In addition, Jalen Reynolds is a 6'9" forward coming off a double- double (17 pt/ 16 reb) and that is another body that Creighton will have to be responsible for. In the backcourt, Xavier's leader is Semaj Christon who reminds me of Jordan Crawford. Christon has improved on his perimeter shot this year while the freshmen Dee Davis has been playing his best basketball of the season over the last 5 games.
I would like to note the 81-68 loss Creighton suffered @ Providence on 1/18/14. This was a game where Providence's big men dominated and Bryce Cotton, the point guard put up 23 points. Xavier is a team that I can compare to Providence and this should be the same type of game. Xavier shoots 49% from the floor at home and are outrebounding their opponents by 9 rebounds a game at home. I really feel this game will be decided in the paint with Xavier being the more physical, scrappy team. With them being on the bubble and with a 15-1 SU record at home, I love them in this spot this afternoon.
Trends: Creighton is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games vs. the Big East Xavier is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600
LSU @ Florida-----This is a No Brainer for me as this is a great situational spot to take the Florida Gators with a favorable line this afternoon. The Gators have cooled off in the ATS department going 4-6 ATS their last 10 games, including 0-3 ATS their last 3. In their last 3 home games they have been double digit favorites but have only won by a single digit margin in these games. I am making note of these ATS struggles because I believe in the 'bounce' factor and that the Gators are the much bigger and better team this afternoon and they will finally showcase their talent. HC Donovan is one of the best coaches in the nation and after 3 close games, I expect him to have his team ready to ROLL BIG over a LSU team that is a bad road team already to begin with as they are 1-6-2 ATS in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
The public will look and see that LSU took Kentucky into overtime last Saturday before losing 77-76. While that was a great effort vs. an overrated Kentucky team, I will instead look at LSU's previous 3 road games that they lost ALL by double digits. LSU does not like to play defense as they are allowing 81 ppg on the road as opponents are shooting 46% from the floor, including 46% from 3 point range. The last time these two teams met was in the SEC tournament last year in Nashville and Florida manhandled the Tigers by a score of 80-58 and I expect a similar outcome this afternoon. They held LSU to 33% shooting from the floor and with the stingy Gators defense again this year, they will put the clamp down and hold LSU below 60 points today.
Florida has a HUGE advantage in size at the guard position and they have the size and athletic ability to outperform the Tigers in the paint. Florida plays lockdown defense and they create offense off turnovers. Wilbekin is the best on-ball defender in the nation in my opinion as he is a ball hawk that will force many turnovers. Look for the GATORS to run the score up with ease this afternoon.
Memphis @ Oklahoma City----Oklahoma City is the talk of the NBA currently on how they have went 0-3 SU since Westbrook's return. This does not surprise me as I played against the Thunder on Westbrook's first game back. Tonight is different though and the situation clearly favors Oklahoma City playing at home with a favorable line after going 0-3 SU and ATS in their last 3 home games. They are in the middle of a long homestand and I expect Durant to put the team on his back and for the rest of the team to do enough to win this game by double digits.
Memphis visited Oklahoma City on 2/03/14 and was an 8 point dog and lost by 9 points. But tonight this line is 2.5 points lower than that 8 point spread and the linesmakers have clearly made a mistake. With Westbrook back in the lineup, this should add 2.5 -4 points to the Thunder's team automatically. This will be his 4th game back and the rust should be wearing off and I look for Westbrook to come up big and provide another scoring option for Durant when needed. The Grizzlies do have Conley back in the lineup but I still give the Thunder the edge at the guard spot easily. I also like the energy coming off the Oklahoma City bench with Jeremy Lamb and Reggie Jackson. Jackson is probably the best backup point guard in the NBA while Lamb and Derek Fisher are known for nailing some 3 pointers when needed.
Memphis does have the 3rd ranked defense in the NBA, but it's their offense that will be the problem tonight as they are ranked 28th in the league only scoring 95 ppg and that number drops to 92.9 ppg on the road. The Thunder do play defense as they are holding opponents to 43% shooting from the floor at home and I see them holding Memphis to 84-88 points tonight. This will be a game where the Thunder make a statement I do believe. They will build a lead and keep the gas pedal mashed to silence all critics. Trust me, Durant and Co. do not want to talk to reporters after the game why they lost or why this game was even close. They want to win by 20+ and I see the final score being in the 104-86 range tonight. Knowing the Thunder are 12-3 ATS their last 15 games following a double digit loss at home along with the fact they are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 vs. the NBA Southwest; this my friends is MY NBA BLOWOUT GAME of the WEEK .
Oregon @ UCLA------This is revenge game for Oregon after UCLA stole the game from the Ducks last month, 70-68. Oregon is coming off 3 straight home wins and will be looking to settle the score with UCLA tonight. I like Oregon in this spot as they have been competitive on the road lately, as they are 3-0 ATS their last 3 road games which includes a pair of two point losses @ Arizona and @ Arizona State. I expect this game to be a very close one as well with the final score being in the 2-3 point range and I would not be surprised if the Ducks win this game straight up. They have 8 losses this year but the average margin of loss is only is 5 ppg. Oregon is putting up 82.8 ppg and they are ranked #3 in the nation shooting free throws at 77.6%. So we have a good shooting team that can score and that can go 10 deep if needed with a deep bench.
For UCLA, they come into this game off a road loss at Stanford after going 4-0 SU and ATS their previous 4 games. I have the feeling that the hot hands of Kyle Anderson and Jordan Adams are going to cool down. As this is revenge for Oregon, this is a 'look ahead' game for UCLA as they have a revenger on deck vs. Oregon State who handed them a 71-67 loss on 2/02. I will note that UCLA has a good offense that ranks in the top 10 in most categories, but this is a dangerous spot for them. I am looking at both teams stats over the last 5 games and these guys matchup very well. I look for Oregon to make the defensive adjustments and to keep Anderson and Adams tamed tonight and for Oregon's Mike Moser to have a good game and possibly be the difference maker. In the first matchup, Moser scored ZERO points, ZERO rebounds and had 5 turnovers. This was his worst game of the season by far. Since that game, Moser is averaging 14.5 ppg and 6.5 rebounds a game.
This will be a good game with many lead changes and we will take the points with Oregon on the road as they are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 road games and are 14-5-2 ATS in their last 21 games following a SU win.
Head-to-Head-Trends: Oregon is 4-1 ATS the last 5 meetings Oregon is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in UCLA The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Play on Oregon Ducks
Arkansas @ Kentucky------The first game this year was a dandy when these two teams met. Arkansas won on a dunk in overtime that was one of the most exciting finishes of the season. Kentucky will be eager to settle the score but this spread is a bit inflated and a bit too rich for the Wildcats to cover tonight. Arkansas has been known as a SEC team that can only win at home, but they have put up solid performances in their last 3 SEC road games. They just beat Mississippi State on the road last Saturday as expected, but put up two solid performances on the road before that. The Razorbacks went toe-to-toe with a 1 point loss at Missouri and beat a good Vandy team 77-75 as well. I feel like this Arkansas team has crossed this barrier and have learned how to compete on the road.
Arkansas can match up with Kentucky as they use a 10 man rotation with tall guards and physical, athletic forwards. All of Arkansas's guards are 6'3" or better and everybody is capable of shooting the three point shot. LSU just took Kentucky into overtime on Saturday and Arkansas has a team that is similar to LSU and I feel they will pose a similar problem to the Wildcats. Arkansas still plays that tenacious defense as they are averaging 10 steals a game their last 5 games forcing 16 turnovers a game in this time span as well. So tonight, we are getting a bundle of points with an Arkansas team that is actually a better shooting team than Kentucky and are also a better defensive team than Kentucky in my opinion as they just play harder and force more turnovers. Kentucky has struggled from the perimeter all season long and I look for Arkansas to make some big shots, force turnovers and keep this game within reach.
North Carolina @ NC State-----North Carolina is now 9-0 SU and ATS their last 9 games and is one of the hottest teams in the country. They will be a popular pick tonight by the public and I have no problem fading the public in this in-state rivalry.
North Carolina is coming off a 105-72 beat down of Wake Forest on Saturday that followed up their win over Duke last Thursday. The Tarheels shot 57% from the floor including a RARE 11-15 from behind the arch. This is a North Carolina team that only shoots 33% from the 3 point line on the season and that number gets worse on the road at 21.6%. I look for this number to hold true tonight as NC State is ranked 34th in the nation holding opponents to 30% shooting from three point range.
NC State has played some very good teams well this year, which tells me they tend to play to the level of their competition. They are also in a groove at home currently going 4-0 SU their last 4 games. They have NBA Prospect TJ Warren in the paint to go along with two other 'bigs' that will match up well with North Carolina. In the backcourt, NC State has finally found a solid rotation after this was a completely new backcourt to start the season. They have talent; it just took them longer than expected to get in a groove. After coming off three straight road games, I expect NC State to be excited to be back home tonight to get revenge from the 84-70 loss the Tarheels dealt them on 2/01/14. NC State got off to a slow start in that game going 2-for-14 from the floor and was down 18-4 and never could recoup. If you take that slow start away, the rest of the game was played evenly as NC State wound up losing by 14 points (the same 14 point margin that begun the game).Things will be different on their home gym tonight and I look for them to get the early lead and to never look back.
This is an inflated line and we will take full advantage with NC State as the home dog. North Carolina has had their way with NC State traditionally winning 11 straight and the linesmakers have noticed and have shaded this line an extra 2.5 points. I like this same season revenger, especially as this is a rivalry game and the Wolfpack are 8-0-1 ATS in their last 9 Wednesday games.
Michigan @ Purdue-----I like Purdue in this spot as a home dog tonight. The Boilermakers are a hard-nosed basketball team that will bring their 'A" game vs. the Wolverines. Purdue lost earlier this year 75-66 @ Michigan, but the Wolverines shot 61% from the floor. Playing on the road tonight I expect this number to drop and also for Purdue to make the necessary defensive changes. Purdue is a deep team with a lot of experience. They have two graduate-student transfers that come off the bench along with some ESPN top 100 recruits as well. Purdue also has a true 7 footer in A.J. Hammons who will be performing in front of NBA scouts tonight. Hammons has been consistent and will have a good game vs. a Michigan team that is not very big down low.
For Michigan, they are a public favorite right now especially after beating Michigan State on Sunday. Stauskas couldn't miss from the floor (9-13) and I have to suspect things will not be as easy for him on the road tonight. I will also note that Michigan only committed TWO turnovers in that game which is almost unheard of. I will again play the 'bounce' factor I expect the Wolverines to play a bit sloppier and make 12 or more turnovers tonight. Also, when comparing Michigan's road stats with Purdue's home stats, I will note that Michigan is allowing opponents to shoot 47% from the floor on the road while Purdue is holding opponents to 40% from the floor. Also, Purdue is the superior rebounding team (12 offensive rebounds a game) and that equals to more second chance points. They are also making almost 6 blocks a game with the big 7 footer down low while Michigan is only making 2.5 blocks a game. Defense will win this game and I like Purdue to do all the dirty work.
This is a let-down spot for Michigan after beating their in-state rivalry Michigan State twice this season and I expect for Purdue to go toe-to-toe vs. Michigan and the Wolverines to be on serious upset alert. Let's grab the points with this live home dog in Purdue as they cover this one easily.
Head-to-Head Trends: The underdog is 4-0-1 ATS the last 5 meetings.
Houston @ Sacramento----With the Rockets on the tail end of a 5 game road trip, and a same season double revenge game vs. the Clippers on deck tomorrow night, this is not a desirable situation for them. The revenge game vs. the Clippers is huge for Houston. The Clippers beat Houston by 13 on their own home court and to make it worse, the Rockets had a 55-46 lead at halftime before the Clippers went on a 18-0 run in the third quarter to pull away. This clearly is a BIG 'look-ahead' game for the Houston Rockets who are hot right now, winning 9 of their last 10 and will be a popular pick by the public tonight, but we will be taking the Sacramento Kings as a home dog with confidence. Sac is 3-1 ATS this year as a dog of 4-4.5 points and I will also note that the Kings have knocked off Miami and Indiana on their home court this year. It can also be noted that the Kings have had Houston's number this year beating them 2 of the 3 games so far, including a 106-91 win at home back in December.
Sacramento was a team battling through injuries but they are healthy now and will be ready tonight. Isaiah Thomas and Ben McLemore in the backcourt have provided the Kings with a solid punch and the addition of a healthy Ray McCallum off the bench is a backcourt that can score when needed. McLemore has been struggling from the floor lately but this is a good game to bounce back against a lousy Houston defense. Rudy Gay and Demarcus Cousins are always going to put up solid numbers as well, and I expect big games from them as well tonight. Cousins and Gay had big games in the home win vs. Houston back in December and nothing should change tonight. I will call for McCallum to be the 'X' factor though and the guy that could be key in making sure Sac gets the cover tonight.
The Rockets are a high scoring team, but they do not play defense, evidenced by the 105 ppg they allow on the road. With tired legs from this road trip and the revenge game tomorrow night vs. the Clippers, I give Sacramento all the key advantages tonight. Houston will live and die by the three point shot. They are shooting 41% from behind the arch their last 5 games, and I will play the law of averages and heavily assume they will not shoot this high percentage tonight, furthermore calling for a cover by the Kings. This is a live home dog tonight that will be barking all the way to the window.
Indiana @ Wisconsin-----I like the Badgers tonight to win comfortably in this same season revenger. Wisconsin had beaten Indiana TWELVE straight times before Indiana got lucky and won 75-72 last month on their own gym. I will tell you that game was Indiana's best they played all year, and it was on their own gym. Tonight they will travel on the road for their 3rd straight road game and the situation clearly favors Wisconsin who will be the more energized and motivated team.
Wisconsin is back in rhythm now having won their last 5 games, including tough back-to-back road games @ Iowa and @ Michigan. Now they get rewarded by coming back home to beat up on the Hoosiers. Nothing is standing in Wisconsin's way either as they have 3 bottom feeding Big 10 opponents on deck so their eyes will be fully focused on this revenge game. The Badgers are now starting to be considered for a #1 seed in the tournament and they will be wanting to run up the score on whoever they play. I like the way the big man, Kaminsky is playing right now. I have been watching this guy and he has some solid footwork in the paint that the Hoosiers will not have an answer for.
This is Wisconsin's best offensive team in 19 years as they have no trouble scoring at 73.3 ppg. They are also second in the nation in offensive efficiency, averaging 1.19 points per possession. I will compare Indiana's road stats along with Wisconsin's home stats in closing to let you see why Wisconsin will win this game by 16+ points. The most important stat that should be noted in that Indiana is turning the ball over 15 times a game on the road while Wisconsin takes care of the ball only turning the ball over 8 times a game with a 1.47 assist: turnover ratio. I will take this +7 turnover differential and call for Wisconsin to convert in transition and come away at least +10 points off turnovers tonight. Next is that Indiana is only shooting 40.5% from the floor. They lack any perimeter shooters outside of Yogi Ferrell who will shoot them right out of the game if given the opportunity to do so. Other than Ferrell, every other member of the Hoosiers as a negative assist: turnover ratio and that will not get the job done tonight. For Wisconsin, everybody in their starting 5 can shoot the three ball and it makes them so hard to defend. Then they have the diaper dandy Nigel Hayes who is instant offense off the bench . Look for this game to be a REAL BLOWOUT with a Wisconsin team that has found their groove and are playing their best ball of the season right now.
Head-to-Head Trends: Wisconsin is 10-3 ATS the last 13 meetings
Florida @ Vandy-----Now Florida is the #1 ranked team in the nation and the pressure is on and we all know the late season jinx that the #1 ranked team goes through. While Florida is the more talented team tonight, HC Stallings has done a tremendous job with the players on this Vandy roster. The Commodores have been competitive in the majority of their games this year and they do it with defense. Alot of people will talk about the Gators defense, but it should be noted that Vandy is holding opponents to 39.6% shooting from the floor this year at home at 63 ppg. That number is very comparable to the 62.8 ppg that the Gators are allowing on the road. Looking at all other major statistics, these teams match up well when comparing Florida's road stats and Vandy's home stats. The Gator's might come out with the win tonight, but Vandy will cover this generous spread. With two defensive minded teams, this 8.5 point spread is actually a little bit larger in reality considering how points will come at a premium.
Florida is now playing their 4th road game in their last 5 games and I will factor this into my decision as well, especially playing in Memorial Gymnasium where Vandy has a big home court advantage. The teams opposing benches are not on the sideline, but instead on the baseline. That is an advantage for Vandy that is one of the best kept secrets in the nation, until now. Vandy's bench got some rare playing time on Saturday against Auburn as HC Stallings said his bench played better than the starters. I like the minutes that the bench logged and this gives these players as well as Stallings confidence going into this game, as the Dores can go 9 deep if needed.
Injuries: Kasey Hill is a Florida guard who is their 6th man off the bench. He is listed as doubtful with a groin injury. Casey Prather (15.4 ppg/ 5.4 rpg) is listed as probable but I have to wonder about his overall effectiveness. Prather has been missing practice all year long with injuries and is now nursing a knee injury. I have to factor this into my decision as well and will give Vandy +3 points for these two injuries, even if Prather does play.
Vandy for some reason or another LOVES cashing tickets as they are 19-8 ATS their last 27 Tuesday games and I look for them to keep this winning Trend going tonight against a Florida team that will be going through the motions and will be lucky to get out of town with a win.
Oklahoma @ Kansas-----I like Oklahoma tonight getting double digits on the road and for a good reason. I am going to look at Oklahoma's 6 conference road games this year. They are 4-3 SU and 4-3 ATS as well. Their 3 losses are coming by an average of only 5.5 points . In fact, their largest loss this season was a 87-76 (9 points) to Michigan State back on 11/23/13.
The Sooners are an up-tempo team that uses its smaller lineup as an advantage by using their speed and quickness against opposing teams. They are ranked 12th in the nation in scoring at 82.8 ppg. The Sooners can play with a 4 guard lineup that causes mismatch problems. They have 6'7" shooting guard Camron Clark who is NBA ready and can carry the Sooners along with Buddy Hield. Kansas did beat Oklahoma 90-83 last month and it was an up-and-down game that Kansas just shot a higher % from the floor to outlast Oklahoma. Tonight, I see this game going back-and-forth again but not getting out of hand.
For Kansas, they are coming off a Big revenge win vs. Texas and this will be a tough game for them to demonstrate that same effort that was given in the 31 point win vs. Texas. I will note that Kansas has won their 5 home games by double digits, but Oklahoma will be their toughest test as far as a team that can spread the floor, drive, and make 3 pointers. Kansas does shoot a slightly higher percentage from the floor, but all other statistics are about equal, and I just see this as a game where Oklahoma will be in the hunt and ripe for an upset. Not only is this a small let-down spot for Kansas, there is also pressure on them as a win tonight will clinch the Big 12 Title. Look for Oklahoma to go toe-to-toe with the Jayhawks tonight and to keep this game within the single digits easily. Play on: Oklahoma Sooners
Michigan State @ Michigan-----This is a revenge game for Michigan State after losing 80-75 to Michigan earlier this year. Michigan shot 58% from the 3 point line and this was at a time when the Wolverines were on fire. Now they have cooled off a bit and I like HC Izzo and the Spartans at this time of the year, especially with revenge. Michigan State was injured at the time with Adreian Payne out and now he is back and his big physical body will be appreciated in this game. The big guy is averaging 16 ppg and 8 boards a game on the season. I give the Spartans the big edge down low today . Michigan State is a deep team and I will say a better team since they had to learn how to play without Payne and Dawson. Now,Appling and Harris, Michigan's State's seniors are healthy this team is dangerous. Appling and Harris have not been able to practice much together this year, but now they are both healthy and watch out, these Spartans are a dangerous team. The Spartans not only know how to put the ball in the basket, but they play defense as well. They are ranked 19th in the country only allowing opponents to shoot 39% from the floor. This is a favorable line this afternoon for Michigan State. I expect them to go on a few big runs and win this game by 7-8 points. I will also note that Michigan has not played since last Sunday and with a 7 day lay-off, look for the Wolverines to be rusty, whereas the Spartans are just getting warmed up after rattling off 17 3 pointers against Purdue on Thursday. Payne went 4-for-8 from behind the arch and Michigan will have to step out and respect his range. All advantages point towards Michigan State today.
San Diego State @ New Mexico-----I have not been hesitant to play against San Diego State and I will not be shy on pulling the trigger tonight. New Mexico is a sharp 10-2 SU at home this year. They are now 13-2 SU their last 15 games overall and in my opinion are the best team in the MWC and they will showcase their talent tonight. The two losses were a game against UNLV where I had UNLV as a premium pick. It was just a bad situational spot for New Mexico. The other loss was @ Boise State where New Mexico had the lead nearly the WHOLE game before Boise won by one point in the final minute. New Mexico's home gym is called 'The Pit' and for good reason. It is 37 feet below street level and is one of the loudest gyms in the nation and this homecourt advantage is huge.
It should be noted that San Diego State lost @ Wyoming two weeks ago and I look for New Mexico to use that same blueprint for tonight's game. As a matter of fact New Mexico's starting 5 resembles that of Wyoming's but they are much more talented. For beginners, New Mexico has two BIG guys in the paint that the offense can be run through. Cameron Bairstow is a big 6'9" Australian that is scoring 20 ppg, shooting 56% from the floor. Next they have a 7 footer in Alex Kirk who is chipping in with 14 ppg and 8 rebounds a game. These two guys can control the paint and give shooting guard Kendall Williams a nice inside-outside offense. Williams can create his own shot, he can shoot the three ball (43.5%), and he can shoot free throws (80%), while dishing 5 assist a game. When these two teams met last year in New Mexico, the Lobos ran off with a 70-60 win and I see the final score tonight ending in the same way. Look for a dominant performance from the home team tonight from the opening tip to the final buzzer.
San Antonio @ Phoenix-----I like the Phoenix Suns tonight for a number of reasons. This is a bad spot for the Spurs as this is their last game on an extended road trip. Yes, this will be their 9th straight road game and teams in this situation tend to play their last road game poorly. The theory is that the road team is just ready to get back to the comforts of their home and do not play a good basketball game. I am going to use this angle tonight and I feel that Phoenix is a team that can beat the Spurs. Tony Parker is out for the Spurs and although the line has been adjusted, I like this line at a 'PK' currently as I am counting on Phoenix to win the game straight up.
The Spurs own a 2-0 edge in this series this year and I look for Phoenix to get the win as this game will have somewhat of a playoff atmosphere and this is a possible playoff preview as well. Tony Parker is out for the Spurs and Kawhii Leonard is supposed to play but I have to expect he will be a bit rusty. The Suns do a great job at protecting the perimeter as they are ranked third in the NBA as opponents are only shooting 33% from behind the arch. I will also factor this into my decision. I also like the fact that the Suns are 21-6-1 ATS in their last 28 games playing on only one days rest and are 5-0 ATS their last 5 games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. (The Spurs gave up 109 points to Portland). Phoenix is a team that can get out and run in transition and they will push the pace tonight on a Spurs team that does not want to run, especially without Parker in the lineup. Off the bench, I love the Morris Brothers and the spark they provide. This is a strong 7 man rotation that can go 8 and 9 deep when Barbosa and Ishmael Smith make their presence. Both of these guys are great on the fast break as well.
In closing, we are taking a Phoenix team that has already beat the Pacers at home and had Miami beat before Lebron went crazy in the 4th quarter. We are playing against a Spurs team that is without their All-Star point guard and are playing their 9th consecutive road game. Patty Mills, (Parker's replacement) dropped 29 for the Spurs in their last game and I do not see him having back-to-back games like this. I will also note that the Spurs have not been covering as of late when playing good teams. They are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Look for Phoenix to protect their home court and pick up a statement win tonight.
Saint Mary @ San Francisco----I have made two plays on San Francisco as a homedog this year and have lost both games as much as I hate to say it. Well, I am going right back with them tonight but with good reason. I like the situation they are in for a number of reasons. This is their first home game after playing their last three games on the road. This is a same season revenger as well after Saint Mary's won the first game 88-73 as a 9 point home favorite. For Saint Mary's they are only 4-4 SU on the road this year. They have gone 2-2 SU (1-3 ATS)last 4 conference road games . A 18 point loss to San Diego should be noted and a 2 point overtime win @ Pepperdine should be noted as well. San Fran is better than both of those teams and they have already played the best teams in the West Coast Conference. When they played BYU, the Dons were in the game until the end. When they played Gonzaga, Gonzaga raced out to an early lead and Matt Glover and Avry Holmes went a combined 7-for-26 from the floor for the Dons which did not help at all. Look for these two guys to step it up tonight and make some shots. Glover is a 6'5" Penn State transfer that can be a tough matchup when he runs the point.
I would like to compare Saint Mary's road stats and San Fran's home stats and you will see that tonight the Dons of San Fran will come out victorious. San Fran is shooting 49% as a team at home while Saint Mary's only shoots 42.5% on the road. Saint Mary's just doesn't have the sharp shooters that they are accustomed to. The Gaels do have Brad Waldow on the inside but the Dons have Cole Dickerson and this should be a good matchup with Dickerson winning because he can step out on the perimeter and knock down the jumper; something Waldow cant. But not only do they have Dickerson, Kruize Pinkins is coming off a 26 point game @ Santa Clara last Saturday. Pinkins is a JUCO transfer that is a raw scorer around the basket and I really feel that the Dons will pull away and win this game by 9-12 points tonight.
Trends: Saint Mary is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 Thursday games Saint Mary is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning SU record. San Fran is 23-7 ATS in their last 30 Thursday games. San Fran is 13-6 ATS in their last 19 home games vs. a team with a winning road record
Miami @ Oklahoma City-----This will be the NBA game of the night with the most attention and I like the Miami Heat catching the points on the road. These two teams met in Miami before the All Star Break and the Thunder beat Miami 112-95. Miami actually had an early double digit lead before they decided to make mistakes and commit 21 turnovers. I had Oklahoma City in this game as a Premium Pick and WON, but tonight I feel like Lebron and company will be more than eager to make amends for that piss-poor performance.
For the Thunder, Westbrook is expected to play tonight. I will call this a disadvantage for OKC. After Westbrook got injured, the Thunder really started to prosper and now inserting him back in the lineup will mess up their chemistry and I have to think that Westbrook will be a bit rusty as well. I also have to think the Thunder might be a bit rusty as a team as this will be their first game since last Thursday. Miami already shook off the cob-webs Tuesday night with a win @ Dallas. It is not often Miami has been an underdog this year. Only 3 times as a matter of fact and they are 2-1 ATS in those games (2-0 ATS vs. the NBA West). Dating back to 2012, Miami is 7-3 SU and ATS as a road dog of 1-5 points , including 4-1 SU and ATS vs. the West. Miami has finally got a solid rotation and I am looking for them to get the WIN and COVER tonight.
Head-to-Head Trends: Miami is 6-1 ATS the last 7 meetings Miami is 7-3 ATS the last 10 meetings in Oklahoma City
Arizona @ Utah------I have had a very good feel on both of these teams this year. I would like to revisit the first game in January when Arizona won 65-56. This was a closer game than the final score indicates. Utah actually held Arizona to 40% shooting from the floor. Arizona won the game by getting 18 offensive rebounds and this will be a point of emphasis for the Utes to correct tonight. It can be noted that Arizona's Brandon Ashley (out for the season) did have 4 of those offensive rebounds while chipping in with 11 points. I have said it before that Arizona has a good starting 5, but their bench is thin and playing on the road in the altitude of Utah, I like the Utes tonight as a home dog. HC Miller has said he will be using more of his bench for this game, but these are guys who don't have alot of playing experience and are playing on the road in front of a rowdy crowd. Utah is 16-1 SU at home this year. The one loss was a 2 point loss to Oregon in overtime. Since then, their home wins have come by 11,18,5,9, and 18 points. This is a legit team and one that is in a prime spot to beat Arizona tonight. Utah is ranked 5th in the nation shooting 50% from the floor, putting up 79 ppg. They are solid from the foul line and have a well balanced team. They have a legit 1-2 punch with Delon Wright in the backcourt and Jordan Loveridge in the paint. Then they have a 7 footer, Dallin Bachysnki who will be the equalizer for Arizona's Kaleb Tarczewski. On Saturday, Utah went into halftime only down by 2 points to UCLA. Maybe they started thinking about this game tonight as UCLA opened up with a 12-0 run in the second half and that's what lead to the 14 point loss. Utah will be ready for this game tonight, guaranteed. I would like to compare the stats from both teams over the last 5 games now. Arizona is shooting 39% (28% 3 PT) as a team. Utah is shooting 48% (41% 3 PT)as a team = Advantage Utah. Arizona is shooting 63% from the foul line, Utah is shooting 72% = Advantage Utah. Utah has also been the scrappier team coming up with 7 steals a game and 4 blocks a game. The kid Delon Wright is a first team PAC 12 player in my opinion and he will guide his team tonight. Another key stat about Utah that I like is their ability to guard the perimeter as they are holding opponents to 30% shooting from the 3 point line on the season. That goes well with the fact that Arizona has been struggling as of late from the perimeter. Utah has a great shot at winning this game straight up tonight and we will grab the points with them at home. Key Trends: Arizona is 0-3 ATS their last 3 road games Arizona is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall Utah is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Wednesday games. Utah is 23-5-2 ATS in their last 30 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600 Utah is 21-6-1 ATS in their last 28 home games. Head-to-Head Trends: Utah is 4-0 ATS the last 4 meetings.
Kansas @ Texas Tech------For Kansas, this is not a good spot for them. For beginners their big man Joel Embiid is not 100%. He is listed as probable but HC Bill Self will be cautious as he really needs Embiid to be ready for their next game. Why? Because it's a HUGE revenge game vs. Texas and Texas has a big man by the name of Cameron Ridley who Kansas will have to deal with. I will call this a trap game for the Jayhawks as it's just a tough game for them to get up for. With Texas, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State on deck I feel like Texas Tech will be in the driver's seat to cover this spread tonight. Kansas is only 4-4 SU on the road so their dominance is not there. They have actually lost their last two road games now SU and the senior leadership is lacking. Looking at past history, Kansas has beaten Texas Tech 9 of the last 10. Those 9 victories have come by an average of 29 points. That is why I say that this is a trap game and a look-ahead to the revenger vs. Texas. What I like about Texas Tech this year though is a number of things. The first being Tubby Smith as the head coach. The second is the 4 returning starters they have from last year. Third, they are 10-4 SU at home this year, with their largest loss coming by 11 points. That was to Iowa State and at a time when Iowa State was blowing out everybody and only had 5 turnovers in the game. Texas Tech's point guard, Turner, was also in foul trouble the whole game and fouled out while only playing 24 minutes. Robert Turner is Tubby Smith's first recruit and Smith likes this kid. He is the Red Raiders best on ball defender and I like him to play a big factor in this game tonight. Texas Tech is shooting the ball 46% on the season and that number increases to 49.4% when at home while they are a solid 75% at the free throw line. I mentioned above that Iowa State only committed 5 turnovers in the 11 point win vs. Texas Tech. Well, Kansas is averaging 15 turnovers a game on the road and I will factor this into my decision as well. It should also be noted that Texas Tech is 8-2 ATS their last 10 games overall and the home team is 4-0 ATS the last 4 meetings when these two teams match up.
Villanova @ Providence------This is a same season revenger after Providence got waxed by 30 points last month by Nova. Make no mistake about it, Villanova has a large number of wins this year by double digits, but I have the feeling tonight that these upperclassmen of Providence will be ready for the challenge. Immediately after the Friars 84-61 blowout win vs. DePaul, HC Cooley was already talking to his players about this game vs. Nova. I like the size that Providence has and feel they will have the advantage tonight. Everyone on the team cab rebound and the sixth man off the bench is a big legit 7 footer from Wake Forest, Carson Desrosiers. Not only can Providence rebound the ball, they are also the nations #1 free throw shooting team at 78.8%. Playing at home, I feel this is a huge stat to consider. All of their big men can shoot free throws and in a tight game, I give the Friars the advantage. For Nova, they are coming off a huge loss to Creighton, their second of the season to the BlueJays and they are only 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following a SU loss of more than 20 points. This is a tough spot for them as well as it's their 3rd straight road game. I have to think that they are a bit tired from traveling on the road and given the fact that Nova left such a bad taste in Providence's mouth last month, I look for the Friars to take full advantage tonight at home. This is actually Nova's 6th road game in their last 8 games and I will back the home team tonight as they have revenge on their mind and have home court to their advantage. Providence is 5-1 ATS their last 6 home games and at this time of the season, I look for them to get the outright win so we will grab the points as this is a live home dog.
Kentucky @ Mississippi-------Kentucky got the best of Ole Miss a few weeks ago in a 80-64 win. Ole Miss has been a tough team to figure out this season, but they have won their last 5 conference home games. We know that Marshall Henderson is going to get his regardless..it's what the rest of the team does. This is a smaller Ole Miss team that relies on its quickness most of the time but have a nice rotation of 4 bigs down low that share playing time. For Kentucky, they have been a tough team to figure out as well. One thing we know is that they tend to struggle on the road. We also know that their lines tend to be inflated. Kentucky is coming off a loss to Florida and now a SEC road game should not help things play to their advantage. Looking at past history Kentucky has now beaten Ole Miss 4 straight times, but last year the Cats were a 2.5 point road dog when visiting Ole Miss. I do not think that the 6.5 point adjustment is warranted for this game either. Ole Miss is playing good basketball at home currently and Kentucky is a coin toss whether they will show up on the road which is proven by their 3-12-2 ATS mark in their last 17 road games. And with back-to-back same season revengers on deck (vs. LSU, vs. Arkansas), this is not a favorable spot for the Cats. They beat Auburn by 8 last Wednesday but it was a closer game than the final score indicated. Auburn actually had the lead in the second half before going cold from the floor. Auburn's second leading scorer, KT Harrell went 2-15 from the floor (0-7 3 PT) and that was the deciding factor. One has to think if Harrell would have made a few jumpers, then the Tigers would have covered and possibly won. I have to think that Henderson and Summers will carry Ole Miss tonight and this will be a close game and one that Kentucky might lose straight up. When comparing stats, these teams matchup well. Ole Miss actually has a few advantages, one being at the free throw line. When playing at home I like the better free throw shooting team. Ole Miss has done good bouncing back in the ATS department off SU losses as they are 5-2 ATS their last 7 games following a SU Loss and it can also be noted that the underdog is 5-1 ATS the last 6 meetings when these two teams play each other. Look for the Ole Miss Rebels to cover this spread tonight as it's crunch time in the SEC .
Delaware @ Towson-----This is a same season revenger and one I see the home team of Towson winning by at least 8 points. I will revisit the game last month when these two teams played @ Delaware. Delaware won 83-76 but Towson was on the road of course and just made too many turnovers. To make it worse, their 3 point specialist Four McGlynn went 0-5 from behind the arch and I like him to knock down 3 or 4 trifectas tonight on his home court tonight. For Delaware they played nearly a flawless game only turning the ball over 7 times. I expect that to change also played on the road tonight. And the clincher is this: their point guard, Jarvis Threatt, had 20 points, 5 rebounds, 3 assist, and ZERO turnovers. Well, now Threatt is suspended and this will be big for Delaware in this game. The Blue Hens really don't have a true point guard, and they have a VERY thin bench as well. I will factor all of this into my decision for tonight's game. It can also be noted that 6 of Delaware's 7 losses this year have come on the road. For Towson, they have only 1 home loss this season and that was a loss to Northeastern as I suspect it was a trap game as they had the game vs. Delaware on deck. Towson will be focused tonight, guaranteed. One thing about Towson is they play defense, especially at home and defense wins games. Delaware prefers to play a faster game and they don't believe so much in playing defense. Look for Towson to play their brand of basketball at home and to build a lead and for NBA Prospect Benimon to put up a solid game. I see Towson winning this game with ease tonight, especially considering the fact that Towson is 6-1 ATS the last 7 meetings when playing at home vs. Delaware.
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