Take Oklahoma City

Play on Game #912 Arizona DBacks RL +1.5 (-140) w/ Collmenter

I like Arizona with the 1.5 runs. I really don't like the Giants this year and think they will take a step back and are overvalued, even with Bumgarner on the mound.

Collmenter will take the mound for Arizona and he had a great Spring going 1-0 in 3 starts with a 0.62 WHIP. Collmenter has a career 1.15 WHIP and I think this guy is poised for a breakout season. Collmenter faced San Fran twice this spring and pitched 6 innings and only gave up 4 hits and 1 ER. The current Giants roster is only hitting .237 career vs. Collmenter with a .372 SLG%.

Bumgarner takes the bump for the Giants and the D'Backs are hitting .261 with a .449 SLG% vs. him. He has a sub-par 29K:12 BB ratio vs. the Arizona lineup. This spring, Bumgarner went 0-3 giving up 21 hits in 18.1 IP. While he has a 18K/1 BB mark, Bumgarner has been giving up way too many basehits. He faced Arizona last week actually and gave up 4 runs in 4 IP on 78 pitched.  

San Fran looked terrible this Spring. Arizona has a new coach and a revamped team and are healthy this season with Goldie,Pollock, and Trumbo are healthy. I have the feeling that Arizona wins this game. With it being opening day, I'd rather lay a small amount of juice to get them +1.5 runs for some added insurance. Take Arizona on the Run Line +1.5

Take Duke to win it all

Play on Game #909 San Diego Padres RL +1.5 (-150) w/ Shields

I like this revamped Padres team with the +1.5 tonight. Kershaw had 9 one run games last season, 7 at home. The Padres got Matt Kemp in the off-season and he knows Kershaw. They also got Justin Upton, Will Myers, and Derek Norris and now this is a lineup that has talent.

Shields takes the mound for the Padres and he has been sharp this Spring with a 23K/5BB mark with a 0.93 WHIP. I think he takes advantage of this Opening Day start pitching in the NL and not having to face the Yankees or the Tigers like he has in the past.

Dating back to 2012 Kershaw is only 6-4 SU vs. the Padres. Last season he went 3-0 SU but 2 of those games were 1 run games and the other game the Padres scored 4 runs but gave up 9 runs. I don't think Shields gives up more than 3 runs in this game. Of Kershaw's last 10 starts vs. the Padres, 4 of the 10 have been 1 run games. So of his 6 wins vs. the Padres, 4 of them were by 1 run. Of his last 8 home starts vs. the Padres, Kershaw is 5-3 SU, but 1-7 vs. the Run line as 4 of those wins came by one run.

I am really excited about this Padres team this season and while I think they can win this game, I strongly feel the better play supported by the recent 1 run games that Kershaw has pitched in vs. the Padres tells me that we want to take the Padres +1.5 (-150) in this one. 

Play on Game #508 San Antonio Spurs (7:05 PM EST)

I like the Spurs in this game. Both teams are playing great ball currently, but I think the edge goes to the Spurs in this one who are still fighting for playoff positioning while Golden State has the West wrapped up. While it appears the HC Steve Kerr is not resting his players, the Warriors are playing on a back-to-back after playing Dallas last night and I have the feeling that Kerr does not care about winning this game.

The season series is split at 1-1 but both games were played @ Golden State. Now the Spurs will have Golden State at home and I think they give them what they want. I will also note that in the loss earlier this year, it was a game for the Spurs where they were playing on a back-to-back after battling the Clippers the night before. Nobody played over 21 minutes in the game for the Spurs. Parker, Green, and Leonard only had 14 points combined. HC Popovich let his bench get plenty of 'burn' as he obviously did not care too much about winning the game.

Now things have changed. The Spurs are 9-1 SU their last 10 games and 9-1 ATS as well. Other than Golden State, this is the hottest team in the West. They have the advantage tonight playing at home and playing with a days of rest.

Play on Game #821 Wisconsin +5 (8:45 PM EST)

I like Wisconsin. I faded Kentucky vs. Notre Dame for good reason. I am fading them again for good reason tonight. While the Badgers might not have the quickest guards in the nation, they have some of the smartest and most disciplined. Wisconsin just does not turn the ball over very much. Nor do they make a lot of fouls. Where Kentucky likes to live at the foul line, the Badgers are only sending opponents to the foul line 12 times a game this season. They only commit 7 turnovers a game and over the last 5 games this numbers gets even better. As Notre Dame was able to shoot the 3 ball with success, Wisconsin can do the same. The Badgers three point shooting accounts for 43% of their made baskets. What I like about their win vs. Arizona was they got the win without great play from Jackson, Koenig, and Gasser. I really like this combo of guards and think they play better tonight and take some pressure off of Dekker and Kaminsky. While the focus will be on Kaminsky, Dekker is playing like a 1st round draft pick and the Wildcats will have to really pay attention to both guys. Dekker has scored 27,23,20, and 17 points in the Tourney. My point is this team is well-rounded. Nigel Hayes is looking more comfortable than ever on the court as well. I really think that there will be some wrinkles in the offense set up for Hayes as the attention will be on Dekker and Kaminsky.

I know Kentucky has a bunch of 7 footers and is undefeated and have the best defense, blah, blah. I also know that Florida played them closely for 35 minutes in All 3 games this season. I also know that Georgia gave them a run for their money. I think Wisconsin has a similar team to Florida except they are 10 times better. My point is that I think they can play with Kentucky with their style of basketball and beat Kentucky as their skill players are much better than those of Florida and Georgia.

Wisconsin is 7-2-1 ATS their last 10 games as an underdog. This is only the 2nd time they have been an underdog all season long as they beat Arizona last week as a small dog. Last year, Kentucky won 74-73 and it was a 'Push' as Kentucky was a 1 point favorite. Randle, Young, and Poythress accounted for 55% of those 74 points. The Harrison brothers were held in check. Wisconsin had the lead in this game and had the game won before Harrison hit a game winning 3 pointer with 5.7 seconds left. Kentucky only made 4 turnovers in the game and still only escaped with a 1 point victory. I just think this is too many points vs. such a disciplined and well-coached team like Wisconsin. Another note is that Kaminsky only had 8 points in that game and did not get to the line once. I think changes will be made for this game. I can see them getting Frank more involved and can see the Badgers knocking down plenty of three pointers in this game is what it takes to beat Kentucky. Let's take the 5 points tonight. I think this one comes down to the wire and just cannot see Wisconsin losing by more than 3 points.

Play on Game #824 Duke -5 (6:05 PM EST)

I like Duke to go ahead and roll in this game.... So Izzo has guided his team to yet another Final Four. He is a great Tournament coach, but in the Final Four I like Coach K and his personal better.  Coach K is 8-1 SU vs. Coach Izzo.

While Michigan State is a much better team now than at the beginning of the season, I also think that Duke is playing their best ball of the season. Their last 2 games they have dealt with 7 footers down low in Utah and Gonzaga and dominated. I think Okafor has a huge game for Duke and it will just be too much for the Spartans to overcome. There is no question that Duke has the better offense in this game and I think we can make a case that they have the better defense.

Duke beat Michigan State earlier this season 81-71 on this same floor that the game is being played on Saturday night at Bankers Life Field house in Indiana. Duke is coming off a game where they only committed 3 turnovers and only made 8 turnovers vs. Michigan State earlier this season. This is a team that takes care of the ball, has 3 freshmen that are all headed to the NBA, and have 4 different guys that can light up the scoreboard on a given night. Duke also beat the Spartans in the Midwest Regional in 2013 on this same floor 71-61. So it is safe to say that Coach K and the Dukies own Michigan State.

When looking at this game, I think free throw shooting is important. The Duke Guards, Jones and Cook shoot 89% from the line. So when the game is on the line the ball will be in their hands and they are money in the bank. Michigan State's free throw woes are still a problem and while they have been lucky enough to still escape with victories, I don't think this is the case tonight.

I really think Duke -5 in this game is a bargain. Earlier this season on this same court, they were a 8 point favorite and won by 10. Now the linesmakers have adjusted since the Spartans have peaked in the Tourney, but I think that Duke has gotten much better as well. Duke is 4-0 ATS in the tourney with the wins coming by an average of 17 points. Duke is 7-3 ATS their last 10 games now as a single digit favorite. 2 of those losses were vs. Notre Dame who almost beat Kentucky. I don't think Michigan State has a team that can compare to Notre Dame. The Spartans are not nearly as quick as the Irish as they don't have the size on the perimeter either so Duke will be able to shoot over the top of the Spartans.

Of the reaming 4 teams in the Tourney, Michigan State turns the ball over the most. Of the 4 teams left in the Tourney, Duke is the best 2nd half team averaging 40.5 points in the 2nd half on the season. Where Louisville had a tough time capitalizing off the Spartans turnovers, Duke can and will score. They can get out and run and let's remember Duke has arguably the best player in the nation in Okafor.

So I've talked a bit about the game, but in closing I think the game comes down to this: Coach K is 8-1 SU career vs. Izzo. While this does not reflect the spread, I think the following stats give the us the cover: 1)Okafor has been dominant the last two games and the Spartans clearly do not have an answer. 2) Duke's main ball handlers both shoot 88% from the foul line 3) Duke shoots 50% from the floor on the season. 4) I feel the 'refs' are under pressure to not make a bad call vs. Duke as Duke is a public favorite and they don't want to hear about the criticism, hence I will say that Duke gets more favorable calls in this game. 5) Duke beat Mich State by 10 earlier this season on a neutral and now the line only being -5, we are getting great value. I really do see Duke winning this one by 10+ points.

Play on Game #705 Phoenix Suns +12.5 (10:35 PM EST)

Here I go again fading the best team in the NBA. But listen, the Warriors have the #1 seed locked up, they are off a big win vs. the Clippers and have Dallas on deck. For Phoenix they still have a shot at the playoffs. To make it they need to win every game almost and I can guarantee you they bring a full effort tonight vs. the NBA's best team. Phoenix is 5-1 ATS as an underdog this season when playing a team off BB SU win. For some reason or another, Golden State is only 4-12 ATS their last 16 games before playing Dallas, and I just don't see any motivation for them in this game. I will also note that Phoenix beat Golden State earlier this season 105-97.

Phoenix is 2-0 ATS this season as a dog of 11.5 or more points with covers vs. the Cavs and the Pacers. They are 7-3 ATS their last 10 games as an underdog of 8+ points and I think they somehow keep this one within single digits. From a motivation standpoint, Phoenix has a clear edge in this game. As far as talent goes, Golden State has the better talent of course and that's why they are a 12.5 point favorite. I will note that Phoenix is a long term 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points and the Warriors are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games playing on only 1 days rest. Take Phoenix tonight.

Play on Game #707 Stanford Cardinals -1.5 (9:00 PM EST)

I like Stanford to win the NIT. I think with Rodriguez and Jekiri expected to miss tonight's game, it's just too much for the 4 guard lineup of Miami to deal with vs. the 'tree's' of Stanford. Rodriguez and Jekiri are the team's #2 and #3 scorer's on the season. Now they are not nearly as experienced and I have to think that the freshmen guards are at a disadvantage vs. the more experienced guards of Stanford with Randle and Brown.

The only reason Miami beat Temple was because Temple missed all 15 of their three pointers in the 2nd half. Stanford had a 24 point lead vs. Old Dominion on Tuesday night and I think they continue with their dominance.

It will be too much for Miami to come away with a win without their starting Center and point guard. Jekiri started every game for the Canes this season and was playing 30 minutes a game. I don't think the line has been adjusted properly for this game as I feel Stanford should be a 4-5 point favorite. Lets lay the -1.5 points with Stanford tonight. 

write-up pending

Write-up Pending

Play on Game #506 Orlando +9 (7:05 PM EST)

Play on Game #504 Washington Wizards -10.5 (7:05 PM EST)

I usually will not lay double digits in the NBA, especially with a team struggling, but I think the Wizards give a full effort tonight. I laid the 10 points with Memphis on Monday night after they had lost 3 straight games and I thought they would refocus at home and get the cover and they did.

For the Wizards, after heating up for a bit, the Wizards  now have lost 5 of their last 6 with the win coming in overtime at home. The Wizards are now 0-6 ATS their last 6 games. After Sunday's defeat at home vs. the Rockets, there were words spoken from John Wall, Nene, and HC Whitman. I think it is obvious and clear that the players have spoken together and they know that they need to get their shit together before the playoffs. This is also a revenge game for the Wizards after losing @ Philly about a month ago, 89-81.  I will note though in that game, Beal, Pierce, nor Humphries played. Those 3 guys account for 35 ppg. Humphries went through a full practice on Tuesday and appears to be available on Wednesday night.

For Philly, I just don't think they will be too excited for this game. They are coming off three straight losses now, the last two by only 1 point @ Cleveland, then they lost in overtime vs. the Lakers on Monday. So it's a tough sport for them just based on the last few tough losses. They really have nothing to play for, except a pick in the Lottery.

Although the Wizards do lose @ Philly in February, they won by 35 points in January vs. the 76ers as a 14.5 point favorite. Before that, they beat the 76ers by 19 in  a game @ Philly so we see they have the potential to blow Philly out again. In the win at home in January when they won by 35, Pierce, Beal, and Humphries all played and combined for 26 points. The Wizards dominated on the inside in that game and I think they should do so again. Obviously the Wizards have all the offensive and defensive edges in this game. At this time of the year, I have to factor in motivation. After Sunday's loss vs. Houston, the Wizards owner has publicly stated on his blog he is not satisfied. There were missed layups on Sunday and players complaining for a foul and not getting back on defense. There were plays run off a timeout that HC Whitman said he didn't know what play they were running. The good news if they have had two days to practice and unite as a team. I look for a big effort from the home team tonight and a 20+ point win. Lay it with the Wizards.

Play on Game #743 Phoenix Suns +8.5 (10:05 PM EST)

Play on Game #742 Memphis -10 (8:05 PM EST)

Play on Game #745 Ul- Monroe +6 (8:00 PM EST)

Play on Game #736 Toronto -1.5 (7:35 PM EST)

Play on Game #731 Boston +3.5 (7:05 PM EST)

Play on Game #733 La Lakers +4.5 (7:05 PM EST)

Play on Game #715 Memphis Grizzlies +8  (7:05 PM EST)

Play on Game #702 Washington Wizards +2 (12:30 PM EST)

Play on Game #511 Notre Dame +11 (8:45 PM EST)

I've said all along that if Notre Dame plays Kentucky, then they have the best chance to beat them I believe. I think the outside and efficient shooting of Notre Dame has to be noted. I think that Notre Dame can knock down the 3 point shot and make 10+ three pointers in this game. Notre Dame has size on the perimeter with Connaught on, Grant, and Vasturia. All 3 guys are 6'5" or taller and they can shoot over the guards of Kentucky. Now, is Notre Dame outmatched down low? Yes, of course they are but then again every team is that Kentucky plays.

Notre Dame beat Duke and North Carolina on back-to-back nights in the ACC tourney. They actually beat Duke twice this season and Carolina twice as well. This Irish team has been in plenty of tough games this season. They have been down by double digits several times and do not quit as they have roared back for a victory.  The best part about this game is that we are getting double digits. Notre Dame is the #1 team in the nation as far as shooting efficiency goes. They are ranked #4 is assist: turnover ratio. Jerian Grant is a helluva point guard and team leader. They can also let Jackson run the point and for Grant to play off the ball. They are ranked #2 in the nation in opponents free throws attempts-to- field goal attempts, which means they don't foul a lot and send opponents to the foul line often.

Notre Dame turns the ball over only 9.4 times a game. They commit only 14 fouls a game. They have 4 guys that can knock down the 3 pointer. I think they give the Wildcats of Kentucky all they can handle.

Notre Dame has 5 losses this season. 4 of the 5 have been by 6 points or less. Duke beat them by 30 but it was a revenge game for Duke on their home court. Notre Dame beat Duke 2 of the 3 meetings this season. Harrison injured a finger on his left hand on Thursday night for Kentucky. While I think he will be fine, I also think that you never know, it could be uncomfortable for him and may cause a turnover or two. Let's take Notre Dame to cover the spread. At +600 on the Money Line, I am personally going to make a small wager on Notre +600 as well to win the game. 

Take: Milwaukee Bucks

Play on Game #514 Wisconsin +1.5 (6:09 PM EST)

I like Wisconsin here. The Badgers beat Arizona last year in the Tourney in overtime and think they beat them again. I like the fact that the Badgers got Traevon Jackson back in the rotation. He has plenty of tournament experience and stepped in last night when Koenig had 4 fouls and played good. Dekker really picked up the slack vs. the Badgers and Kaminsky had an off game.

I would like to note that North Carolina played almost a perfect game and it still was not enough to win the game. The Tar Heels only committed 4 turnovers and shot 61% from the 3 point line and still lost. Wisconsin at this time of year is in a better position because they have had to come from behind to win games. In the Big 10 tournament they trailed Michigan and Purdue. On Thursday night, they trailed North Carolina. I think this makes their team stronger, especially mentally.

Much of the season Arizona has been in cruise control and has had not had to fight from behind. Before Thursday's game vs. Xavier, the Wildcats had pretty much just been cruising. My point is that in a tight game, I think Wisconsin has the team better suited to battle and get the win and handle the pressure.

Arizona's 3 losses on the season were questionable I might add as none of the 3 teams even made the NCAA Tourney. Of Wisconsin's 3 losses, Maryland and Duke were/ are in the Tournament. They did lose @ Rutgers, but I will note that Kaminsky was out with a concussion for that game. Dekker and Gasser went 0-for-9 from the 3 point line which did not help and these two guys are playing with confidence right now and I look for big games from both Saturday night.

I really like the efficiency of Wisconsin's offense and the fact they only turn the ball over 7 times a game and only send opponents to the line 11 times a game. I think this team is more experienced as well. Stanley Johnson is the only true scorer that Arizona has in my opinion and Dekker and Nigel Hayes will try to slow him down. I also think the Badgers have a better bench now with the addition of Jackson back in the lineup. Either Jackson, Koenig, or Gasser will be coming off the bench and ALL 3 can score and shoot. Arizona does not have any instant offense like that. I saw Arizona struggle vs. Stainbrook big time vs. Xavier. If they can't contain Stainbrook, they sure can't contain Kaminsky. Xavier threw a 1-3-1 zone at Arizona also and would not be surprised if HC Bo Ryan threw a wrinkle or two in the defense to confuse Arizona. Wisconsin can either play slow or pick their spots and get out and run. This team is so versatile.

Let's take Wisconsin this Saturday night as they make a return trip to the Final Four. Bye Arizona

Play on Game #880 Oklahoma +2.5 *buy .5 point* (Friday, 10:05 PM EST)

I like Oklahoma in this game. I'm not a big Michigan State fan. I know they are playing their best ball of the season, but I think at this time of the year, their terrible free throw shooting has to be noted. The Spartans are shooting 63% from the line on the season, 64% over the last 5 games. Oklahoma shoots 74% from the foul line, and 81% over their last 5 games. I will also note that Oklahoma has a stingier defense that Michigan state. The Sooners are a team that can get out in transition and will give Michigan State problems, unlike Virginia and Georgia. Oklahoma has a good balance on offense because they have multiple guys who can shoot the ball. This is a team that has great chemistry also as they have used the same starting 5 all season long.

As I have been watching all the major TV Sports shows and talk radio, nobody is giving Oklahoma a chance in this one. Michigan State is a popular pick by the public as almost 70% of the money is on the Spartans. Oklahoma does not fold in tight games. They will give Michigan State a look they have not seen. I think that the Sooners are the most athletic team that Izzo has seen in the tourney. Oklahoma can really stretch the Michigan State defense in this one. Buddy Hield will be the best player on the court in this one. Hield has been settling for too many jumpers in the tournament and I look for him to use more of his physical gifts in this game vs. Sparty.

While this game is currently at +2 and I think Oklahoma will close the game out and win it, I think it's a good idea to buy .5 point to +2.5 in this one for some added insurance. 

Play on Game #883 Utah +5 (Friday, 9:45 PM EST)

I like Utah to cover this spread and possible beat Duke. Utah has the size with 7 footer Jakob Poeltl and another 7 footer in Dallin Bachynski to at least matchup with Okafor for Duke. Utah allows just 22 ppg in the paint which is the 7th fewest in the country.  They have Delon Wright running the point who should have a size advantage over the smaller guards of Duke. Wright should be able to take them in the post or just shoot over the top of them. Utah shoots 49% on the season, 4 of their Top 5 scorers shoot 80+% from the foul line. They have 4 guys that can knock down the 3 ball. They don't turn the ball over very much. They have a defense that ranks in the Top 10 in alit of different categories.

Duke we have seen has had problems when they are not hitting the 3 ball. Utah only allows opponents to make 4.8 three pointers a game. I think Utah is the most disciplined team in the tourney. They play team ball and don't care who does the scoring. I think this is a terrible matchup for Duke whose losses this year came vs. teams that have good guard play (NC State, Notre Dame, and Miami Florida). Look for Utah to look at these games and draw up a blueprint. I think Utah has a team similar to Notre Dame but are stronger in the frontcourt and on the defensive end.

The public is all on Duke for this game, and I want to fade the public and go the other way. I truly think Utah has a team built for the National Championship and think they will give Duke fits on Friday night. Take Utah. 

Play on Game #870 Memphis Grizzlies +3.5  (8:05 PM EST)

Play on Game #877 NC State +2.5  (Friday, 7:35 PM EST)

I like NC State in this game. They have the guards to beat Louisville and Louisville just does not have the talent at the guard position or the scoring ability to keep up in this game. NC State already beat Louisville earlier this season as a 10% point road dog @ Louisville. Barber, Lacey, and Turner combined for 45 of the 75 points. I will also note that Chris Jones played in that game for Louisville and scored 20 of the teams 65 points. Now Jones is not on the team and I don't think that Rozier can do it himself. Sure, they have Harrell down low, but NC State has used a 3 headed tandem to slow down the Bigs of LSU and NC State and I look for them to do it again in this game.

Louisville in fact as made it to the Sweet 16, but their they still usually only score about58-62 points a game and I don't think that will be enough in this one. Louisville played arguably their best game of the season when the beat Northern Iowa on Sunday. Can they play 2 good games in a row? I really don't think they can. Barber handled the pressure defense of Louisville with ease in the first matchup with only 2 turnovers and put up 21 points. Barber is playing with confidence right now and has really helped take some pressure off of Lacey.

Louisville has replaced Jones in the lineup with freshmen Quentin Snider. Snider is only a freshmen and I think that Barber, Lacey, and Turner have a big advantage over Rozier and Snider. I think NC State is the surprise team in the tournament this season and I have said in the past I like the better guard play in the tournament. NC State has a trio of 3 guys that can go for 20+ on any given night. They are a good rebounding team and I don't think Louisville has any edges in this game. NC State is now 8-3 ATS their last 11 games heading into this game. Louisville is 3-7 ATS their last 10 games and are 1-6 ATS their last 7 games as a favorite. Take NC State with the points in this one. 

Play on Game #810 Wisconsin -6 (7:45 PM EST)

I think Wisconsin runs away with this game and wins it by double digits. Their point guard, Bronson Koenig, has only 6 turnovers in his last 5 games playing typical 'Badger Ball'. I think Wisconsin can space the floor and stretch the defense of North Carolina.

North Carolina's big man, Kennedy Meeks, is listed as questionable for this game. Meeks will not be 100% if he does play and his numbers have diminished down the stretch as he has only hit double figures once in his last 8 games. I don't think he will be effective in this game. I also think that Frank Kaminsky will have a big game as the Tarheels don't have an answer for him with Brice Johnson or Meeks.  

Some people are looking at the fact the Badgers could not pull away from the Oregon Ducks, but North Carolina does not shoot the 3 ball like Oregon does, nor do they have the size on the perimeter to shoot over the top of the Wisconsin players.  Wisconsin only turns the ball over 7 times a game. They shoot 76% from the foul line. Opponents only shoot 11 free throws a game vs. them.

I think this year's Wisconsin's team is much more dynamic as they can play a slow-tempo game or they can play at a faster tempo. I know Carolina wants to get out and run, but I don't think this is a good thing. I have seen Wisconsin also get out in transition and think this will play right into Wisconsin's hands. I also don't think they can operate their offense efficiently for 40 minutes vs. the Badgers. Carolina has 11 losses on the season. Of the 11 losses, they have come by an average of 8 points. Of the 11 losses, 8 have come by more than 7 points. My point is when they lose, they usually lose by 7 or more points. Having said that, I don't see Wisconsin losing this game. Of Wisconsin's 33 wins this season, 31 of them have come by 7 or more points. Again, I don't see the Badgers losing this game and I think they pull away and win by double digits. Lay it and play it on Thursday night with Wisconsin. 

Play on Game #806 Notre Dame +2.5 *buy .5 point* (Thursday, 7:15 PM EST)    

I like Notre Dame to win this game. Looking at the matchup, Grant vs. Van Fleet should be exciting and Connaughton vs. Baker should be exciting as well but I think Grant is the better point guard though and will win the matchup in the backcourt, especially with his size. He can post up down low and take Van Fleet to school and I look for the Irish to exploit this matchup.

Notre Dame is the 2nd highest efficient offense in this tournament. They shoot 50% from the floor and only turn the ball over 12% of the time. Wichita also takes care of the ball fairly well, but I think that Notre Dame has an advantage in this game not only with their guards but down low with Auguste who has more offensive playmaking ability than Carter does for Wichita.

I also think that Notre Dame will be in a better psychological spot for this game. Wichita is coming off a big win vs. Kansas and I have to think this is a letdown spot for them. While I don't think they are going to look past Notre Dame, I do think they are looking at a rematch vs. Kentucky if they win this game as Kentucky ended their perfect season last year.  Notre Dame on the other hand is coming off two hard fought wins in the tournament and I think they didn't play particularly well in either game and I expect a much stronger showing by them tonight.  Connaughton went 1-for-6 from the 3 point line vs. Butler and I look for him to make at least 3 three pointers in this one. In the tourney, I love good guard play and Grant is the best guard in this tournament and he will be the best player on the court. This guy just sees the court so well and guides his teammates. The Irish have 5 guys that can knock down the 3 ball. They were 6-for-9 (66%) from the floor in clutch time vs. Butler and I think these guys will be ready again to hit some clutch shots. Another key stat is that the Irish do not commit many fouls. They only send opponents to the foul line 14 times a game, and they are getting to the line 23 times and game and outscoring opponents by about 5 points a game from the line. (They shoot 74% from the line and Wichita shoots 70%). It's not a big edge, but in a close game this does matter.

Notre Dame can get out in transition and beat you like that. They can also play in the half court and beat you like that. Their defense might not be a Top 10 defense, but they are good enough to keep Wichita in check. I think Notre Dame should be favored in this game but because of Wichita's win over Kansas and Notre Dame's 2 ATS losses in the tourney, we are getting excellent value with Notre Dame +2 tonight. Let's take Notre Dame and look for the 'Luck of the Irish' to be on our side. I do want to buy .5 point in this one as I think it is worth it tolay an extra 10% juice to get Notre Dame at +2.5

Play on Game #764 Memphis Grizzlies +1.5 (8:05 PM EST)

It is not often you will find the Memphis Grizzlies as a homedog and tonight I think they cover this spread. Memphis comes into this game now 3-0 SU and ATS their last 3 games. They are 4-0 SU their last 4 home games having held their opponents to 86,83,81, and 90 points. They are 19-1 SU their last 20 home games vs. the Eastern Conference dating back to last season. They beat Lebron and Co. last year when LeBron played for the Heat, 107-102.

The Grizzlies only allow 93.5 points a game at home this year. They defend the perimeter and play their style of basketball. I think the Grizzlies are one of the most experienced teams in the NBA. They are not going to let Cleveland just come in their own house and run wild. With Gasol and Randolph down low, I think they play this game at their own pace, make Cleveland play a game in the halfcourt and come out victorious.

Memphis is 4-0 ATS their last 4 games as a homedog. In 2012, they were a 1.5 point dog vs. Lebron and the Heat and won the game SU 104-86. Last season, the Grizzlies beat the Spurs, Thunder, Clippers, and the Rockets all as a homedog. Conley is back healthy at the point. Courtney Lee might not play, but Memphis is playing good with Tony Allen and Jeff Green. Also Vince Carter is shooting 48% from 3 point range over the last 5 games and he can be a spark off the bench. Kevin Love is beefing with LeBron and the Cavs and has not been a factor. This puts more strain on the teams as well. Let's take Memphis at home tonight.  

Play on Game #766 New Orleans +1.5 (8:05 PM EST)

I like New Orleans in this game. They are 8-2 ATS their last 10 games as a homedog. The 2 losses were without Davis in the lineup so with Davis they are a PERFECT 8-0 ATS their last 8 as a homedog. Dwight Howard might return to the lineup tonight for Houston which gives us some added value in the line and he should throw off the team's chemistry a bit. New Orleans is fighting for a playoff spot and coming off a 3 game road trip they know they need this game at home. Playing on a full 3 days rest should benefit them and I think we see New Orleans come away with the win. The Rockets have not been able to go on the road and beat Western Conference playoff teams lately, other than a 2 point win @ the Clippers a few weeks ago.

New Orleans comes into this game with the better FG%, the better FT%, the better defense, the better bench, and they don't turn the ball over nearly as much as Houston does. Now with Beverley out for the Rockets, Harden will have to do more and Jason Terry is old as dirt and not nearly up to Beverly's quality on offense or defense.This is an easy selection. Take New Orleans.

Play on Game #758 Orlando Magic +8.5 (7:05 PM EST)

For whatever reason, Orlando has been able to play good ball when playing Atlanta as Orlando is 6-0 ATS the last 6 meetings vs. the Hawks. Of the last 6 matchups, the most Atlanta has beaten Orlando by is 7 points and they are only 3-3 SU the last 6 meetings with the wins coming by 3,6,and 7 points. The last 3 meetings in Orlando they are 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS with the win coming by only 3 points as a 5.5 point road favorite. They beat Atlanta 100-99 earlier this year as a 3 point homedog and now they are getting 5 more points in this one. Atlanta has a comfortable lead for 1st place in the East and I don't see a reason for them to be wanting to blow this Orlando team out tonight.

The Hawks are now 0-3 SU their last 3 games and have given up 114,114,and 123 points in the losses. Now with their defense regressing, I think the idea of them being such a large road favorite vs. a team they struggle with is a problem and a good time for us to make some money fading them. The Hawks are now 5-5 SU in their last 10 road games and 3-4-1 ATS as a road favorite.

For Orlando, they are only 3-7 SU their last 10 games overall but 5-5 ATS. They get the benefit tonight of playing on 2 days rest and I think they have an advantage down low tonight on the boards. The Magic are grabbing almost 14 offensive rebounds a game over their last 5 games. While their defense is still not up to par, either is Atlanta's right now and I just don't see any motivation for the Hawks in this game. Let's take Orlando as the homedog in this one. 

Play on Game #659 Philadelphia 76ers +8 (10:35 PM EST)

I like Philly in this game tonight. They have owned this series as of late going 11-2 ATS the last 13 meetings, including a 114-107 win a few weeks ago on 3/13. 3 of the last 4 meetings Philly has scored 113,114,and 117 points vs. Sacramento. The Kings don't have anything to play for and should not be this big of a favorite right now at this time of the year. While they are coming off two straight home wins, I will note that both wins came as homedogs and now the role has switched and they come into this one playing the favorite role. The Kings are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite. This is the largest spread for them since  last season in 2014 when the laid 8 points to the Lakers and only won by 5 points not covering the spread. This season, the biggest spread they have laid has been 7.5 points twice and they did not cover either game.

The Kings defense is an issue and they really don't play any. Philly likes to get up and down the court and they have actually been playing good defense lately. The 76ers have held their last 5 opponents to 42.4% shooting from the floor and have forced 15 turnovers a game. They have found their shooting stroke from the outside also. Isaiah Canaan has been a spark off the bench. Jason Richardson has also given the team a boost. Noel is healthy down low and his putting up big numbers and Covington is a guy that can stretch the Kings defense by stepping outside and knocking down the 3 pointer. He had 24 points in the last meeting vs. Sacramento when he went 6-for-12 from the 3 point line.

Let's take Philly with the points here to bounce back after their loss vs. the Lakers on Sunday. They had a 5 point lead at halftime but fell short in the 4th quarter scoring only 12 points. I think they play a solid game here tonight for all 4 quarters as they have won the last 6 meetings in Sacramento. Take Philly. 

Play on Game #655 Miami Heat -1 (8:05 PM EST)

I like the Heat right now at this time of the season. This is a game where two teams are headed in opposite directions. Milwaukee has now lost 13 of their last 16 games. To their credit, the 3 wins did come at home, but they were vs. Philly, Orlando, and the Wizards when Washington was on a losing streak and did not have Bradley Beal in the lineup.

The Heat are coming off a loss, but they had won 4 straight before that. The good news is that Miami has not lost B2B games since 2/27-28 when they lost a pair of 2 point games to the Pelicans and the Hawks. I also think this is a game that the Heat really want to win as it's a same season triple revenge game.

Miami is now 18-6-2 ATS in their last 26 games following a SU loss and Milwaukee is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games and are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 1 days rest.  Let's take the Heat on the road to rebound off the loss

Play on : Washington Wizards

Play on Game #733 Oregon +12.5  (7:45 PM EST)

Play on Game #724 Virginia Cavs -5 (12:10 PM EST)

Play on Game #509 Utah Jazz +8.5 (10:35 PM EST)

Play on Game #513 Arkansas +4.5 (8:40 PM EST)

Play on Game #525 Utah Utes -4.5 (3:00 PM EST)

Play on Game #517 NC State +9.5 (7:10 PM EST)

Play on Game #823 Washington Wizards + 6.5 (10:35 PM EST)

I like the Wizards tonight. They are streaking now with 5 straight wins and covers are were a great play last season on the West Coast and I think they are primed to deliver with some more covers on this West Coast road trip. The Wizards are now 4-1 ATS the last 5 meetings vs. the Clippers. They beat LA at home earlier this season 104-96. Bradley Beal is back at 100% as he played 40 minutes the last game and this is one of the best shooters in the NBA. Nene, Andre Miller, and Gortat all used to play in the Western Conference as did Rasual Butler so they are familiar with the Clippers. The Clippers are without their spark plug off the bench, Jamal Crawford. Matt Barnes is nursing a hamstring injury and the Clippers are now 0-2 ATS their last 2 home games.

The Wizards are the better defensive team, the better offensive rebounding team, and have the better bench. They are shooting 51% over their last 5 games and are only allowing 87 ppg on 40% shooting.

The Clippers are now 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games, 2-8 ATS in their last 10 vs. the Eastern Conference, and 0-5 ATS their last 5 vs. the NBA Southeast. The Wizards are hot right now and they are 4-0 ATS their last 4 vs. the Western Conference and they are 3-1-1 ATS their last 5 meetings in LA. Take the Wizards

Play on Game #806 Miami Heat -7 (7:35 PM EST)

The Heat have found their swag recently with home wins vs. Portland and Cleveland. They have the advantage tonight getting a day of rest and they have not had to play many back-to-back sets since the All-Star Break. Now with Dwayne Wade looking refreshed and the addition of Dragic in the backcourt, the Heat are poised to make a run for the #6 seed as the NBA playoffs approach.

For Denver, they are playing on a back-to-back and have to travel from Houston to Miami. Denver is now 2-8 SU their last 10 games on a back to back and 4-6 ATS. Their two wins were vs. the terrible Timberwolves and the Lakers. The two games they covered were an 11 point loss @ Memphis and a 4 point loss @ LA Clippers. Denver is now playing their 4th road game in 6 nights and I look for fatigue to be a factor. Denver lives and dies by the 3 pointer and I think their legs will be tired and some of those shots will come up short. Also for Denver, Gallinari is out and he has been an important part of the team over the last few games putting up 17 ppg in March.

Miami lost 102-82 @ Denver earlier this season, but the Heat were playing their 3rd road game in 4 nights and did not have Dragic and Whiteside was not in the starting lineup yet. Dragic is shooting 50% from the floor in 2 games vs. Denver this season and he is averaging 19 ppg this month. I will also note that the Heat picked up Michael Beasley who has been a nice addition off the bench. Deng is healthy too and the 'Birdman' has been active off the bench also. Let's lay the points with the Heat as they are 'heating' up and I want to ride with them tonight. 

Play on Game #825 Belmont +16.5 (3:10 PM EST)

I like Belmont to cover this spread. Belmont is no stranger to the NCAA tourney and HC Rick Byrd will have his team ready and focused for this game. Belmont comes into this game confident off 7 straight wins and 6 straight covers. I am a local Nashvillian and I have a good feel for this Belmont team. Belmont beat Murray State in the OVC Championship to end the Racers 2nd longest winning streak in the nation, behind Kentucky.

Belmont has been to the NCAA tourney in 2011,2012,and 2013 and almost beat Duke in 2008 as well. The reason I think they cover this game is because they can shoot. While Virginia does have a stingy defense, they will clog the middle and force teams to shoot over the top of them and I think Belmont has the shooters to do so. Belmont has 4 players that shoot over 39% from 3 PT range. They have big guards and I think they will be able to hit shots. Virginia does not force a whole lot of turnovers either.

I have been listening to HC Rick Byrd on some local talk shows and he is confident that he can hang with this Virginia team. Belmont will need to get out in transition and make some quick baskets but I think they can score 60+ points in this game and that will be enough for the cover.

Justin Anderson, Virginia's best player, played 14 and 12 minutes in his two game off an injury and went 0-6 from the floor and 0-3 from the 3 point line. I will take this into consideration also as I don't think he is 100%. Let's take Belmont to hang in there and give the Cavaliers a run for their money. 

Play on Game #849 Wyoming +6 (1:40 PM EST)

I like Wyoming with the points in this game. They have a lot of momentum going into this game after winning the Mountain West Tourney by beating the best two teams in the conference in Boise State and San Diego State. With Larry Nance Jr. back in the lineup this is a team that is very good and better than what most people think. Nance Jr. leads the team in minutes played, points, rebounds, and blocks per game. They matchup well with Northern Iowa and I think with a total posted of 110.5, this is a lower scoring game that stays in the 3-4 point range. I honestly think it will come down to the last minute of the game and an upset win from Wyoming would not surprise me.

Wyoming allows the 9th fewest points in the country. They have a senior point guard in Riley Grabau that shoots 95% from the foul line. Also in the backcourt, Josh Adams shoots 75% from the line and had games where he scored 27,29,22,24, and 26 points down the stretch. This is a patient offense that shares the ball and will make the extra pass to get the best shot. They play man-to-man defense and only give up 56 ppg. Northern Iowa is not a team that plays at a fast pace and I see Wyoming dictating the pace in this game.

I will also note that Northern Iowa has not played since 3/08 which is almost 2 weeks now. I expect them to be a bit rusty coming out the gate and think Wyoming will build an early lead and have Northern Iowa playing catch up. I will also note that Northern Iowa was down by 14 at the half in the Missouri Valley Championship game before coming back in the 2nd half. This is misleading though as they only shot 37% from the floor while Ill State shot 43%. They played nearly perfect though only committing 3 turnovers and got to the line 26 times where Ill State only got to the line 9 times. This is a red flag for me and I think Wyoming is in a great spot to spring the upset. Take Wyoming with the points. 

Play on Game #827 Georgia +5.5 (12:40 PM EST)

I like Georgia with the points this Friday afternoon. While everyone and their mama is talking about 'Izzo' in tourney time is a lock and unbeatable, this is not the same Michigan State that we are used to seeing. The public is all over Michigan State in this game and I would not be surprised to see this line hit +6 or +6.5. I want to be the contrarian and say Georgia is a 'live dog' this afternoon that will get us the cover.

Georgia has played Kentucky twice this season and were up by 7 on them in the 2nd half. They out rebounded Kentucky in both games and are expected to have Kenny Gaines back for this game after he missed the SEC semifinal game vs. Arkansas. Frazier at the point is fast and he can penetrate and exploit this Spartans defense. All 5 starters average double figures and I think this is a team that is well-balanced and I think that their close losses in SEC play will play to their advantage in this game. Early in the season they fell behind vs. Gonzaga but did not give up. They also played Minnesota and were down in that game and came roaring back only to lose by 4 on a neutral. Georgia had 3 games go into overtime this season. 4 of their losses in the SEC were by 6 points or fewer and I will note that at times Thornton and Parker and Frazier were injured so this team was not 100%. They held Gaines out of the last game to have him ready for this one. Georgia knows how to control the pace and they will do so in this game I believe. They only allow teams to shoot 39% from the floor on the season and they get to the foul line 25 times a game (7 more times than Michigan State).

Michigan State only shoots free throws at 63.3% which is a problem. Dawson shoots only 50% from the line and Trice only shoots 69%. The Bulldogs can play the foul game if they need to also trade some baskets for missed free throws and I like this advantage. Let's take Georgia this afternoon to play a close game, play their style of basketball, and man-up vs. an overvalued Michigan State team.

Play on Game #721 Lafayette +23 (6:50 PM EST)

I like Lafayette to keep this in the 13-15 point range. I actually think this team matches up with the guards of Villanova. Villanova has put together a solid run this season, and I wonder just when are they going to have an 'off game'. Well, the pressure is on them and Lafayette has nothing to lose.

A few things that I like about Lafayette getting 23 points: 1) They shoot 77% from the foul line with all 5 starters shooting 78% or better. 2) They shoot 41% from the 3 point line. 3) Seth Hinrichs at 6'8" can play the 3 or the 4 and can step outside and hit the jumper. 4) They only turn the ball over 11 times a game while dishing 16 assist. This is a good starting 5 and I think they can make shots and keep it respectable. While they don't have much depth, they won't need it this game. Stay out of foul trouble, play smart, take care of the ball and they cover this spread.

Out of conference this season, Nova only beat Lehigh by 11 points and only beat Bucknell by 7, both teams in the Patriot conference. I also want to note that HC for Lafayette, Fran O'Hanlon, used to coach for Villanova back in 1970. I know that has been a long time, but I have to think that HC Wright will show some respect for Lafayette also if they do build a big lead.

Villanova is now 1-6 ATS their last 7 NCAA Tournament games and now the pressure is on. Look for Lafayette to leave it all on the court tonight and to get us the cover. 

Play on Game #717 Northeastern +12.5 (12:15 PM EST)

Notre Dame wins the game but Northeastern covers the spread. I like this Northeastern team to stay composed as they returned all 5 starters this season and finished the season going 9-3 SU. In conference, all of their losses were by single digits other than a double digit loss in overtime vs. Detroit that should have been closer. Northeastern had road wins @ FSU and @ Richmond this season while losing by 4 in overtime @ Saint Mary's. They have two bad losses that were @ Harvard and @ UMass, but both of those teams play a different style of basketball.

Northeastern has senior Scott Eatherton who is a great defender as well as scorer around the basket shooting 59% on the season. Quincy Ford is a 6'8" forward that is athletic and can stretch the Notre Dame defense. Ford went 4-for-5 in the CAA Championship game and I'm looking for him to have a big game. David Walker is a 6'6" guard that has plenty of experience as he played 36 minutes a game last season and 37 minutes a game this year. Walker is their best three point shooter and overall this a senior heavy team that has tall guards and I think they matchup well with Notre Dame.

While the Irish shoot 51% from the floor, Northeastern is right there shooting at 48.6% from the floor. Both teams shoot at 39% from 3 point range as well. Notre Dame is a team that will 'live-and die' by the 3 ball, and playing in the first round against taller guards that can guard the perimeter, I think this game is closer than what a lot of guys are thinking.

Notre Dame is now 0-6 ATS in their last 6 NCAA Tourney games and Northeastern is 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a winning SU record. Notre Dame is riding high after winning their last 2 games SU as an underdog. Now to be listed as a DD favorite is too much to ask of them.

Play on Game #621 Washington Wizards +3.5 (10:35 PM EST)

Play on Game #660 Seattle U +4.5 (10:00 PM EST)

Play on Game #683 Sacramento State +8.5 (10:00 PM EST)

Play on Game #555 UC-Davis +9.5 (11:00 PM EST)

Play on Game #537 Ole Miss +4 (9:10 PM EST)

Play on Game #528 Detroit Pistons +4.5 (7:35 PM EST)

Play on Game #577 Norfolk State +9.5 (7:00 PM EST)

Play on Game #514 Dallas Mavs -3.5 (8:35 PM EST)

Play on Game #512 Miami Heat +3.5 (8:05 PM EST)

Play on Game #873 Houston Rockets +4 (3:30 PM EST

Play on Game #887 Arkansas +13.5 (1:00 PM EST)

Play on Game #891 Georgia Southern +6.5 (1:00 PM EST)

Play on Game #545 Oregon Ducks +12 (11:00 PM EST)

Play on Game #544 Notre Dame +3 (8:30 PM EST)

Play on Game #505 Brooklyn Nets -5.5 (7:35 PM EST)

Play on Game #515 Purdue +9.5 (1:00 PM EST)

Play on Game #877 Oregon +7 (11:30 PM EST)

Play on Game #861 Notre Dame +7 (9:30 PM EST)

Play on Game #814 Denver Nuggets +7 (9:00 PM EST)

Play on Game #812 Dallas Mav's -2.5 (8:35 PM EST)

Play on Game #863 Providence +8 (7:00 PM EST)

Play on Game #831 St. Bonaventure +6 (6:30 PM EST)

Play on Game #822 Purdue -5 (2:30 PM EST)

Play on Game #843 Florida +13.5 (1:00 PM EST)

Play on Game #819 Michigan Wolverines +14 (12:00 PM EST)

Play on Game #506 San Antonio Spurs  PK (9:35 PM EST)

Play on Game #567 California +17 (3:00 PM EST)

Play on Game #519 FSU +12.5 (12:00 PM EST)

Play on Game #719 Detroit Pistons +14.5 (10:35 PM EST)

Play on Game #715 Minnesota T'Wolves +4(10:00 PM EST)

Play on Game #745 Colorado Buffaloes -2 (9:00 PM EST)

Play on Game #766 Seton Hall -1.5 (7:00 PM EST)

Play on Game #731 Charlotte 49ers (Pk) 3:30 PM EST

Play on Game #658 Dallas Mav's +4 (8:35 PM EST)

I like Dallas in this game. Parson and Chandler are both back in the lineup and Stoudemire is giving the Mav's a nice spark plug off the bench. I think this is a game that Dallas wants to win more than Cleveland honestly. I think it is a statement game for them. TO win this game, and to say, "Hey, we are back and ready to make a push for the playoffs".  I will also note that the Cavs are only 16-16 SU on the road this season and are 1-3 SU and ATS in their last 4 road games with losses @Atl, @ Houston, and @Indy. Dallas is now 5-0 SU and ATS in their last 5 games vs. the Cavs including a 109-90 win @ Cleveland earlier this season. Lebron did not play in that game, but still Dallas won the game by 19 points and shot 56% vs. the Cavs on the road.

The UNDER is now 10-0 the last 10 Dallas game overall which tells me that Dallas has been playing good defense lately. Now with Parsons back in the lineup, this gives their offense much more versatility and Chandler is a premier defender down low.  The Cavs have a game on deck vs. the defending Champs, the Spurs, and I think this might also be a look-ahead game for them. Let's take Dallas at home with the points.

Play on Game # Brooklyn Nets -3 (7:35 PM EST)

This is New Orleans 4th game in 5 nights and the Nets need a win bad and I think they can catch a tired New Orleans team tonight that is expected to be without starting point guard Tyreke Evans. Now New Orleans is without Evans and Holliday and are still without Anderson who is their best outside shooter. Davis played 41 minutes last night and he has played 40+ minutes in ALL 4 games since returning from injury. I have to think fatigue might be a factor for Davis in this game also. Evans had 15 points and 11 assist and his 21.6 ppg career average vs. the Nets will be missed.

Brooklyn needs a win bad and I think they get it here tonight. On a good note, they did shoot 50% from the floor on their loss on Sunday but shot terribly from the foul line. The home team is 4-0 ATS the last 4 meetings in this series and I look for an energized Brooklyn team to pull away with the win and cover tonight. Take Brooklyn.

Play on Game #673 Wisconsin Green Bay +3.5 (7:00 PM EST)

I like Green Bay to get the cover tonight in the Championship game. This is a Green Bay team that has a lot more experience than Valpo and I think that experience plays a big part in championship games. They start 3 seniors and 2 juniors and have the best player in the conference in Keifer Sykes who can create his own shot at any time. They lost 63-59 @ Valpo last month but beat them at home 51-50 in January. What I want to note and think is huge is that Tevonn Walker scored 20 points for Valpo in that win. Walker is listed as doubtful for this game with a knee injury. Walker is a freshmen but he was leading the backcourt for Valpo. Now this is a very inexperienced team in the backcourt and I think a game like this that the guard play will be huge.

I also want to look at how both teams have been playing as of late. Green Bay is scoring 76 ppg at 49% shooting from the floor over their last 5 games, while Valpo is only scoring 59 ppg over their last 5 games at 41% from the floor. Valpo's last 8 wins have all been by single digits has they have not been able to pull away from anybody. I know the spread is only +3.5, but I think that Green Bay is in good shape to pull the upset. I think we are getting good value as well +3.5, as when they played @ Valpo last month the spread was +2.5 and now with Walker out, I think he is worth a couple of points in this game. Let's take Green Bay to get the cover tonight. 

Play on Game #681 Robert Morris +5 (7:00 PM EST)

I like Robert Morris tonight in this Conference Championship game. While this game is being played @ St. Francis, home court has not mattered this season with the road team winning both games. Robert Morris comes into this game winners of 5 straight games and their losses in conference play have all been close. They had 6 losses in conference by an average loss of only 4 points a game. 5 of their top 6 scorers shoot 73%+ from the foul line. They shoot 45% from the floor as a team and 38% from the 3 point line. This is a better shooting team than Saint Francis, much better in fact. Saint Francis only shoots 41.% from the floor which includes 29% from the 3 point line. They also only shoot 69% from the foul line and both of their starting guards shoot under 40% from the floor.  I think this is a close game throughout and Robert Morris has the experience and the more talented backcourt in this one to hang around. 

Play on Game #666 Boston College -3 (1:00 PM EST)

It looks to me like Georgia Tech has thrown in the towel and I think that Boston College will advance and cover in this game. For Tech, their starting point guard has been suspended and now their best player, Georges-Hunt is injured. Georgia Tech's backcourt has been had trouble scoring all season long, and now things have just gotten worse. Georgia Tech comes into this game only 2-8 SU in their last 10 games and took a 29 point loss @ UNC and a 32 point loss at home vs. UNC in their last home game.

Boston College comes into the game going 4-0 ATS their last 4 games and 3-0 SU their last 3. They are shooting 52% from the floor over their last 5 games and have also been playing better on the defensive end. Georgia Tech is shooting 38% from the floor their last 5 games and only 40.6 % on the season.

B.C. will have the best player on the court in Olivier Hanlan who is a NBA player that puts up 19 ppg. He scored 39 @ Pitt a few weeks ago and the kid can play ball. They start 3 seniors and 2 juniors and have plenty of experience to advance to the next round in this game. Clifford is a 7'1" center that has been playing good lately also. He did not play in the first matchup this year when BC beat Georgia Tech 62-60 on the road. I think he can add some more size down low for this game. In that game, I will also note that Georges Hunt for G. Tech has 20 points and 9 rebounds and he will be missed in this game.

Boston College has the experience and the much better guard play in this one. They can win this one by 7-8 points easily. Georgia Tech cannot shoot the 3 ball and now they have only one player that shoots above 70% from the foul line.  Lay the points with Boston College. 

Play on Game #806 Brooklyn Nets -2 (6:00 PM EST)

I lost with Brooklyn on Friday night as they blew a 2nd half lead then lost in overtime. I think Brooklyn still has the better team in this game and that they find a way to get the win and cover vs. a Utah team that still struggles to score over 90 ppg. The Jazz have gotten more lucky than anything over their last few games playing bad teams that can't shoot the ball. They don't have much depth off the bench and they are turning the ball over almost 18 times a game. Looking over the last 5 games, Brooklyn has the much better stats across the board and I think that the stats hold true in this game on Sunday. Brooklyn is now 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU loss and are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games vs. the Western Conference. I think that Thaddeus Young could be the 'X' factor in this game and that Deron Williams and Joe Johnson have a much better shooting game. I look for this one to be a blowout and feel like we are getting some great value with the Nets. They honestly know they can't lose this game as this is a crucial time of the season to win games if they want to think about making the playoffs. Take Brooklyn. 

Play on Game #826 Ohio State Pk (4:30 PM EST)

I like Ohio State here to win this game. Wisconsin already won the BIG 10 title and they will be facing an Ohio State team that will be looking for the upset to bolster their tournament resume. I think HC Thad Matta will have his team ready and the diaper dandy DeAngelo Russell will be in 'beast mode' today. This kid can take over any game when he wants and he is so special the way he sees the whole court at all times. Thompson is at athletic as they come, Loving can shoot lights out from the 3 point line, and Ohio State has won 3 of the last 4 matchups and have won 4 of the last 5 matchups when playing on their home court. I will also note that Wisconsin does have two losses on the road this year, one coming just a few weeks ago @Maryland. I think that Thompson, Russell, and Shannon Scott can seriously put pressure on this Wisconsin defense and outscore them. Ohio State shoots 53.6% from the floor at home, scoring 82 ppg. They have won their last 7 home games by an average of 17 ppg. I think they will be plenty motivated for this game and I think Ohio State has a team that is built similar to Duke also and Duke beat Wisconsin earlier this year. Ohio State has the better shooting team, the better rebounding team, and a deeper bench. I also think Russell is the best player on the court today and he shows the NBA scouts why he is the best. Take Ohio State. 

Play on Game #512 Minnesota Timberwolves +5 (8:00 PM EST)

Play on Game #546 Oklahoma -5.5 (5:00 PM EST)

I like the Sooners to roll in this one. While Kansas has clinched the BIG 12 title, their leading scorer Perry Ellis is expected to miss this game and freshman Cliff Alexander is also expected to miss this one. Combined this is 21 ppg/ 12 rpg/2 bpg. I think the inside presence of these two is huge and will allow for Oklahoma's Thomas and Spangler to rule the paint. Buddy Hield will be the best player on the court this afternoon and with Cousins, these two can light it up from downtown.

Oklahoma is 13-1 SU at home this season and are looking for revenge from a 85-78 loss earlier this season. I will note that Ellis and Alexander combined for 29 points and 21 rebounds in that game. That was 34% of their points and 53% of their rebounds. I look for Oklahoma to 'box-out' on defense, get the loose balls and get out in transition here on Senior Day where the crowd will be rocking.

Kansas to me has not looked sharp in their last 5 games. They are 3-2 SU but they had to rally to beat Texas and West Virginia and have lost their last two road games. I will also note that Ellis and Alexander played in these last two road games for them and now they are just very inexperienced and also small down low. This is triple revenge for Oklahoma and they only allow 59 ppg on their home court on 36.6% shooting. They are beating teams by almost 19 points a game at home and while I know Kansas will put up a fight, they will get killed on the boards in this game and their depth will be an issue as well. Kansas again has started to struggle from the 3 point line (23% L5 games) and the Sooners defend the 3 point line very good at home. They have size and length on the perimeter with Cousins and Hield and a well-balanced team in general. Look for the Sooners defense to ignite the offense and for Kansas to lay down in the 2nd half and to get ready for the BIG 12 Tournament.  Take Oklahoma.

Play on Game #578 Stanford +13.5 (5:00 PM EST)

I like Stanford in this game. For beginners, they need a marquee win to get into the tournament and I can guarantee you that they bring everything they have to the game this afternoon. Arizona has the PAC 12 Title wrapped up and I think that Stanford will be the more motivated team in this one. While Stanford does have 8 losses in conference play, the biggest loss was by 16 @ Utah and this was a closer game than it appears. Stanford was only down by 6 at the half but Randle struggled in the 2nd half. Also starting Center Nastic fouled out and had just 7 points. Both these guys are upperclassmen and I think they have better games and I also think that they shoot closer to 43-45% as a team which will keep them within the point spread. Arizona has not beaten Stanford by more than 14 points looking back at the last 10 meetings. Stanford does not make many turnovers and they are a good free throw shooting team which are two important factors for me when taking an underdog. They have size down low and experience. Travis has been a guy also that has come on strong and gives them some added athleticism. Remember a few weeks ago Arizona was tested at home vs. UCLA and I think that Stanford can test them the same way this game. I wouldn't be surprised if Stanford had a lead sometime in the 2nd half before Arizona pulls away at the end to win by 5-6 points, which will not be enough in this one. Let's take Stanford with the double digits. 

Play on Game #535 Florida Gators +16 (3:00 PM EST)

I like Florida in this game. They have gotten Finney-Smith back in the lineup and now their leading scorer Michael Frazier is expected back for this game also. The Gators can run the pick and roll and this is what has given Kentucky problems this season. Frazier had 10 points in the 1st half of the first matchup this season before injuring his ankle. He is an outside shooter that is a veteran that can make shots and HC Donovan can count on him. Frazier and Finney-Smith are averaging 26 ppg combined and both guys shoot the 3 ball at 40%+ on the season. I think this is a game where Florida keeps it close and doesn't let the Wildcats run out the gym. Kentucky is coming off a come-from-behind win @ Georgia and have the #1 seed locked up for the NCAA tourney. While I know they still want to go undefeated, I think Florida has more motivation for this game and would love to play the spoiler. The Gators were an 11 point underdog in 2010 to Kentucky and covered the spread losing only by 8. Going back the last 10 games as an underdog of 6+ points, the Gators are 6-2-2 ATS. While I don't think they have a chance of winning this game, I do think that the line is inflated and the addition of Frazier and Finney-Smith has not been accounted for by the linesmakers. These two guys in the lineup are worth every bit of 7-8 points in my opinion. The Gators are only giving up 58 ppg over their last 5 games and I think we see a lower scoring game this Saturday afternoon with Florida hanging around in the 8-9 points range. Take the Florida Gators to get the cover.

Play on Game #543 Saint John's +12 (3:00 PM EST)

Saint John's has momentum coming into this game having won 4 straight and 8 of their last 10. This will be the 1st time all season they have been a double digit underdog and I think they get the cover today. I have been fading Villanova and they have been killing me I will admit, but I'm going to fade them once again here. I think that Saint John's has the most talented starting 5 in the BIG East and if they play like they supposed to, then they will take Villanova down to the wire. I still think that Villanova is overrated and would not be surprised to see them lose this game. They have had to battle back to win 3 of their last 6 games. I think this is the best defensive team in the Big East that they will see. Pointer and Obekpa can alter shots down low and Harrison and Greene are the best backcourt in the Big East in my opinion. This is a large number for Villanova to cover. Like I said, this is the largest spread that Saint John's has seen all year long, and I think that they respond well this afternoon.  Take Saint John's.

Play on Game #810 Brooklyn Nets -2.5 (8:05 PM EST)

I think this is a good spot for Brooklyn to bounce back at home with win as they are on an extended home stand and can not to afford to lose any of these home games. For Phoenix, they are on a 4 game road trip out East and have a big game vs. the Cavs tomorrow night. Brooklyn had beaten the Suns 5 straight times before losing earlier this season and I have to think the Nets rebound off their 39% shooting performance the other night vs. Charlotte. Joe Johnson only scored 2 points and the Nets went 3-for-16 from 3 point range. I think they bounce back vs. a poor defensive team of Phoenix that gives up 105 ppg and that has trouble shooting the ball lately at only 42.4% over their last 5 games. Brooklyn has the better starting 5, the better bench, and I think they have a strong advantage playing at home vs. a Phoenix team that has given up 100+ points in 8 of their last 9 games. Let's lay the small points at home tonight with Brooklyn. 

Play on Game #843 Yale +4.5 (8:00 PM  EST)

I like Yale in this game as this is a team that returned all 5 starters from last season and they have not disappointed as they are tied with Harvard for first place and the winner tonight goes to the Big Dance more than likely. Yale played Providence, UConn, and Vandy all tough in the regular season. They lost by 2 points to Harvard earlier this season and have been competitive in all of their losses this season except for one. Yale only had 11 points in the 1st half the first meeting and I have to think they get off to a better start tonight. This is a team that has experience as their Top 6 scorers are 4 seniors and 2 juniors. Yale is a good FT shooting team (70.6%), a decent 3 point shooting team (36.7%), and are getting 10 offensive boards a game. When they played UConn, Justin Sears was a beast on the boards and I am looking for him to play with that same type of physical play this Saturday. Sears also scored 15 points in a game @ Florida this season and he has proven that he is ready to play in these big time games.

Harvard is now 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS win and Yale is 18-6-2 ATS in their last 26 road games. They are also 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road game following 3 or more consecutive home games. I will also note that the road team is 5-0 ATS the last 5 meetings just throwing out the importance of home court in this matchup. Yale beat Harvard last year @ Harvard and I think it's time for the Ivy League to have somebody new go to the Big Dance this year. Take the points with Yale. 

Play on Game #849 Evansville +4.5 (3:30 PM EST)

I like Evansville in this game. They returned all 5 starters this season and I think they rise to the occasion in this tournament game today. Illinois State did win both matchups earlier this season, but I think it's hard to beat the same team three times in one year, especially Evansville who has D.J. Balentine that can take over any game at any time. They just lost in overtime to Illinois State last weekend and I have to think that Mockevicious contributes more in this game and they shoot a higher percentage. 3 of the last 4 meetings have went into overtime which also tells me just how well these two teams know each other and that the points in this game is the correct play.

Illinois State does have momentum heading into this game having won their last 4 games, but Evansville was the only quality win they had out of the four. Evansville comes in losers of 3 straight but 2 of those were vs. Wichita State and Northern Iowa. Evansville shoots the ball much better than Illinois State make no mistake about it. In a close game I like them also as all top 7 of their scorers shoot 70%+ from the foul line. Illinois State should not be the favorite in this game. They are now 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games overall, but the underdog is 5-1 ATS the last 6 meetings in this series and I think that the leadership and the better guard play gets Evansville to advance to the next round.

Play on Game #528 UL-Monroe +4.5 (8:00 PM EST)

I like Monroe in this game at home as this is their best team they have had in quite some time and I think they continue barking as a dog as they are 8-3ATS as an underdog this season while Georgia State continues to lay points on the road where they are 4-6 ATS this season as a road favorite and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall. Monroe is coming off 3 road games and will be excited to be back home for this one where they are 11-2 SU at home this season and both losses have been only by 4 points each. Monroe is tied for 1st place in the Sun Belt with Georgia State and know the importance of this game and I think this is a 'bounce game' for both teams. Monroe is coming off a 34% shooting performance their last game and Georgia State shot 62% in their last game. I think that Monroe shoots a lot better in this game and that Georgia State shoots below 45% for this one. I also think Monroe was looking ahead over the weekend with the loss @ App State and they will regain their focus for this one. With a revenge game on deck vs. Georgia Southern for Georgia State and this being their 3rd consecutive road game, I have to favor the home team of Ul-Monroe in this one. Let's take Ul-Monroe as another homedog on the board tonight that is poised to get the cover.