Play on Game #104 Louisville (Thursday,7:30 PM EST)

The common eye will be inclined to back the Clemson Tigers on Thursday night. But not so fast as they are travelling on the road to visit a Louisville team that has started the season 0-2. They are coming off a loss as a double digit favorite last week as they were obviously looking ahead to this game and will be fired up and focused for this game not to start 0-3.

Louisville is playing with revenge tonight as they lost 23-17 last year to Clemson. This was a defensive game as Louisville held Clemson to only 229 yards of total offense. I have to think this is more of a defensive game here again which makes the underdog in this game more attractive.

Louisville HC Bobby Petrino does not lose three games in a row often. He is 8-1 SU career off back-to-back losses. The best thing about this game is that we just need a cover, not necessarily a win.

Louisville has a better defense than was advertised last week. They held Auburn to 327 yards in Week 1 and had 3 interceptions. Louisville has a star linebacker in Keith Kelsey along with TCU transfer Devonte Fields and this line backing core is strong and fast. The secondary is tough also with a couple of Georgia Tech transfers. Harvey-Clemons is a big physical safety at 6'5" and 230 lb,he has made his presence known leading the team in interceptions and tackles.

Clemson's field goal kicker is suspended. The backup is a freshman and didn't look very good last week as he missed from 49 and 44 yards but they were negated because of penalties. Look for him to miss at least 1 field goal here on the road. Louisville has a senior FG kicker that was 6-for-8 last year from 40+ yards.

Clemson's offensive line is very young and playing on the road with a lot of crowd noise from the Louisville fans will do them no favors. Their only returning starter on the line was their center and he went limping off the field last week. He is out this week. I think this is a big advantage for us. Ryan Norton was a 5th year senior that had started 26 games. Now the starting center has only 1 start under his belt. I still have questions about this inexperienced Clemson defensive line also that lost 137 career starts from last season along with two linebackers to the NFL draft.

Look for a fired up Louisville team to take the field at home on Thursday night. I feel we have more than enough advantages on our side tonight and look for the Cardinals to be flying high and bagging us the cash. Take Louisville for the cover!

Write up pending. 

Play on Game #481 Tennessee Titans (Sunday, 4:25 PM EST)

This will be a matchup between rookies Marcus Mariota and Jameis Winston. Mariota and the Oregon Ducks dismantled Winston and FSU last year in the Rose Bowl, 59-20. Now as both quarterbacks will be making their first NFL start, I like Mariota and the Titans to come out victorious.

Mariota is the much more accurate passer and is more mature in the pocket. It showed in the preseason also as Mariota completed 70% of his passes. Winston only completed 49% of his passes and got sacked 7 times which just indicates that the Bucs offensive line is still sub-par.

Overall, the Titans averaged 5.9 yards per play in preseason. The Bucs only 4.3 yards a play. I will also note that the kicking game might be a factor in this game and the Titans went 5-for-5 in the preseason while the Bucs went 4-for-9.

Mariota has had the advantage of facing Dick Lebeau's defense in practice and will be more prepared for a softer Cover 2 defense that the Bucs use. Winston on the other hand will be facing more pressure from Lebeau's defense. I feel that LeBeau is a defensive guru and when you give him this much time to prepare his defense for a rookie quarterback, he will have his defense ready to force some turnovers.

Tampa Bays weaknesses are on the offensive line and defensive line. Mariota will have time in the pocket to make plays. Winston will be under pressure.

Tampa Bay only won 2 games last year. They went 0-3 as a home favorite and 2-6 ATS their L8 as a home favorite. The Titans upset the Chiefs last year to open the season and were a 4.5 point dog. I will also note the Titans opened up in 2013 with an upset win against the Steelers, 16-9. Look for the trend to continue. Take the Titans. 

Write up pending.

Want to bet this game while is at -6.5 still

Play on Game #470 Buffalo Bills (Sunday, 1:00 PM EST)

The Bills have been one of the best home dogs in the NFL over the last two years. They are 6-1 ATS the last 2 years when catching points at home. The Bills have one of the best defenses in the NFL and I like Rex Ryan as the new coach. The Bills only allowed 18 ppg last season I also like what I saw from the Bills in the Preseason. I like Tyrod Taylor at quarterback as he gives the offense an added dimension as he is mobile in the pocket and athletic.

The Colts defense looked terrible in the Preseason. Talks are that Pagano is on the hot seat. The offense is one-dimensional.  Now they might be more one-dimensional as their running backs are banged up ( Herron and Ballard). Frank Gore can't do it himself as he is in his 11th season. On defense, DE Arthur Jones is out and Robert Mathis is listed as doubtful and a couple of cornerbacks are on the injury report.

Buffalo has owned this series at home over the years going 14-4-1 ATS in the L19 meetings at home. The Colts are 0-7 SU in their L7 road games vs. the AFC East.

We want to play against NFL teams in Week 1 that won 13 or more games last season vs. a team that won 13 or less games. When our Play Against team (Indy) is a not a favorite of more than 3 points and the Ov/Un is 40 points or higher, the Play Against team is 0-16 ATS.

Look for the Bills defense to make some big plays and to be physical at the line of scrimmage and to run the ball with success. This will open up for plays down the field. Look for the Colts to continue to struggle on the road vs. the AFC East. We have a perfect 16-0 ATS Super System Play on our side as well. Take the Bills!

Play on Game #476 St. Louis (Sunday, Sept 13th 1:00 PM EST)

I like Saint Louis in this spot. The Seahawks who usually play good in the preseason looked terrible this year. They appear to be down after losing the Super Bowl and opening up Week1 on the road vs. a divisional opponent is not doing them any favors. Also, their starting safety is out for this game.

The Rams will be ready for this game. Everybody gets up to play the Seahawks. The Rams might have the best defensive front 7 in the NFL with the addition on Fairley and Akeem Ayers in the offseason.

 The Rams beat Seattle last year straight up at home 28-26 and are 3-0 ATS their L3 at home vs. the Seahawks. Last year they had Austin Davis as QB and beat Seattle.  Now they upgraded with Nick Foles who looked good in preseason and fits this offense. They have more experience this year bringing back 11 starters overall.

The Seahawks are the dreaded Super-Bowl loser and teams have been terrible in the past going 2-13 ATS in Week 1. This was a very tough loss for the team to swallow as a hole. We also want to play against teams in Week 1 that won more than 13 games last year against a team that won less than 13 games. If our play against team (Seattle) is a dog or favorite of less than 5 points, they have only covered at a 26% rate the last 42 times this angle has been applied.

Again, this is a division game and the home team has dominated in the past. Motivation won't be a problem for the Rams. Look for the Seahawks to get caught with their pants down in Week 1. Take Saint Louis Rams for the cover!

Play on Game #322 Cincinnati Bearcats (Saturday, 8:00 PM EST)

Temple is coming off a big win against Penn State. This is a big 'letdown' for them and now they have to face a Cincinnati offense that is much better than Penn State's while going on the road. They don't have much time to prepare.

Cincy has one of the best QB's in the country in Gunner Kiel. He has ALL of his wide receivers back this season. ALL 4 guys are seniors. The offensive line returns 76 starts and everybody on the line is juniors or seniors. They have a trio of running backs that are all productive. My point is this Bearcats offense is high powered.

Cincy averaged 34 ppg last season. They are 10-2 SU at home under Tuberville. They went 7-0 SU and ATS to end the season last year before losing in the bowl game. As a home favorite of -4.5 to -10 points under Tuberville, the Bearcats are 6-1 ATS.

Cincinnati has the scheduling advantage here also. They played cupcake Alabama A&M in Week 1 and remain home for this game. Temple has to travel on the road after a tough, physical game vs. Penn State.

Temple's offense won't be able to keep up in this game. Their QB Stewart is banged up and is not an offensive threat at all. Temple only had 313 yards of offense vs. Penn State. Last year, Temple had under 300 yards in 5 of their last 6 regular season games. They averaged only 12 ppg their last 7 games of the season.

Cincinnati has won both matchups vs. Temple with Tuberville as their coach vs. Temple, 14-6 and 38-20. In 2013, Cincy was a 21 point home favorite and now we are seeing a line that is 2 touchdowns lower. We are getting great value in this game. Dating back to 2010, Temple is 0-3 ATS as a road underdog of 6-7 points losing by scores of 34-14, 47-17, and 24-13. Look for the Cincinnati Bearcats to roll BIG in this one. 

Play on Game #330 Ohio Bobcats (Saturday, 7:00 PM EST)

Marshall was lucky to get a win last week. Their defense looked terrible. They won the game but got outgained by 57 yards. Purdue had no problem moving the ball on them. Now they have to go play on the road and are on a short week while Ohio is fully rested after playing last Thursday night. Ohio has had 3 more days than Marshall to get ready for this game. Ohio beat Idaho by 17 on the road last Thursday and outgained them by 98 yards. Big advantage for Ohio.

Ohio brings back 17 starters this season. They have a senior quarterback that is a dual threat. Ohio has 99 offensive line starts returning from last year (3 seniors). All of their running backs return and 3 of their 4 receivers also return. On defense, they have 4 seniors starting in the secondary and have a very solid linebacking core also. Also a senior kicker and punter and I think this is HC Solich's best team he has had in years.

This is a revenge game for Ohio after losing last year 44-14 to Marshall. These teams have played each other the last 6 years. The home team has won 5 of the 6 meetings. It's not often you will see Ohio as a homedog but when they are, they do well. The Bobcats are 3-1 ATS their L4 as a homedog and 10-5 ATS their L15 dating back to 2005. (They are 4-1 ATS their L5 as a homedog of 3-4 points) Ohio has cupcake SE Louisiana on deck so they will be fully focused for this game.

Marshall went 4-2 ATS last year as a road favorite, but they were 1-8-1 ATS as a road favorite from 2010-2013 so this is team that historically performs bad on the road. QB Cato is gone and the James Madison transfer quarterback is not nearly as good. This Marshall team lost a lot of key players from last year and they will struggle on the road this season, including this game. I will also note they were listed as a 7.5 road favorite in 2013 when they played Ohio and the Bobcats pulled the upset winning 34-31. When listed as a road favorite of 7.5 points or less, they are 1-6-2 ATS their last 9.

Ohio has the better team in my opinion and it will show in this game. I also feel like they should be the favorite in this game. We have all the advantages on our side. Take Ohio for the cover.

Play on Game #363 Middle Tennessee State (9/12 7:00 PM EST)

MTSU warmed up nicely in Week 1 scoring 70 points vs. Jacksonville State. They have a coach that has been with the program for 10 years. MTSU brings back 16 starters this season. The OL coach says this is their biggest, strongest, and deepest line they have had in a long time. The defensive line is big with a pair of 320 lb nosetackles. The DC says the linebackers are the fastest and most unselfish that he has had since being hired in 2012. 5 of their top 6 guys return in the secondary including 1st TM CUSA Kevin Byard and they also add in a transfer from LSU, Jeremy Cutrer. Overall, I think MTSU is one of the best 3 teams in CUSA this season and getting almost 5 touchdowns vs. an unmotivated Alabama team is a bargain.

I know Alabama looked strong last week vs. Wisconsin. They were motivated for that game after getting whooped by Ohio State in the bowl game last year. It's hard for college kids to play with the game amount of enthusiasm after a big primetime game.  Alabama has a BIG revenge game on deck vs. Ole Miss. Ole Miss gave Alabama their only regular season loss last year.  Alabama had beaten Ole Miss 10 straight times before that loss last season. They will be looking ahead to that game and won't be motivated here.

This is a huge spread. Alabama is 2-10 ATS their L12 home game as a home favorite of -30 points or more. They went 0-3 LY vs. non-conference opponents. It's not often that MTSU is a dog of 30 or more points, but they are 7-3 ATS in their L10 as a dog of 30+ points.

Alababma's defense is good, but they won't play with that same bite as last week. I still feel like the offense is not as good as it appeared vs. Wisconsin. Also remember that Wisconsin is a team that was only returning 11 starters and lost alot of their offense from last season. Also, Wisconsin's starting safety got injured in that game which was a big blow to the secondary. My point is that Wisconsin is not as good in my opinion as they were perceived to be. Alabama is overvalued in this spot. All the public remembers is they won last week 35-17. The reality is this team is happy with this win and they will have their 'eyes' set on Ole Miss next week as some of their practice this week will be devoted to the Ole Miss Rebels I have to think. Take MTSU with the points. 

Play on Game #335 Appalachian State (9/12 12:30 PM EST)

Clemson has big games on deck vs. Louisville, Notre Dame, and Georgia Tech. The game vs. Louisville is on Thursday which will be 5 days after this game. They will want to make sure they are rested and fresh for that game. Their mind will not be on App State.

Clemson only returns 9 starters from last year's team. They only have one returning starter on the offensive line. That is the Center and he is questionable for this game. Also their 2nd TM ACC receiver Mike Williams is out with an injury. They also lost their offensive coordinator in Chad Morris.  Now for the defense: Clemson only return 3 starters on defense. They lost 137 career starts on the defensive line (2 NFL draft picks). They lose 2 linebackers to the NFL also. Oh, and they lost their best cornerback from last year and their starting safety.

 App State returns 18 starters this season. They averaged 36 ppg last season. They finished last year outgaining their last 7 opponents and won their last 6 games. App State brings back a double deuce offense (200+ rush yards and 200+ pass yards a game). This football program can play football and they can score. They will be able to run the ball and get some manageable 3rd and short situations against the inexperienced Clemson defensive line.  Remember they beat #5 Michigan in 2007. App State won't be intimidated in this game. They also have depth on the team and are stronger than last year with a new strength coach as there are reported strength gains 20-30% across the board. App State has good sized linebackers and an experienced defensive line. I expect them to play Clemson tough for all 4 quarters.

Look for Appalachian State to leave it all on the field on Saturday afternoon while Clemson will have their mind set on the bigger games in front of them. I look for a final score in the 10-13 point range. Take App State with the points. 

Play on Game #210 Virginia Tech Buy .5 pt to +10.5 if needed (Monday Sept 7th 8:00 PM EST)

I like Virginia Tech here as a live homedog. After struggling with injuries, the Hokies have a much healthier team this season. They return 16 starters this season including their senior QB, all of their RB's and WR's. I expect a much better running game this season as they moved Wyatt Teller from DL to OG towards the end of last season and the numbers improved. I also think the O-line will give QB Brewer more protection in the pocket, especially in this game as Ohio State's future NFL 1st round pick has been suspneded.

The Hokies defense is always tough and in my opinion have the best defensive line in the ACC this season. Cornerback Kendall Fuller is a future NFL 1st round draft pick and is back this season also. He led the Hokies with 15 PBU last year. Bud Foster returns all the key special teams players this season and I expect for them to make some big plays on this nationally televised game as I have seen so many times in the past.

As far as motivation goes, Virginia Tech will not have a problem getting motivated playing the defending National Champs at home. I also think that Ohio State will come into this game a bit flat and have a 'big ego' after winning the National Championship. I will also note that Virginia Tech beat Ohio State last year 35-21 on the road last year. The overall yardage was equal at 324-327 and the Hokies had 21 first downs compared to 19 for Ohio State.  They were an 11.5 point road dog and now we get them at home at close to the same spread (+10). So as far as value, I think the Hokies are at a good value here considering they return 16 starters this season and should be improved at all positions and are playing at home.

Key Note: Ohio State has 4 players suspended for this game for smoking marijuana and I have to wonder if more suspensions will follow

·        DE Joey Bosa is a potential Top 5 pick in the NFL Draft (13.5 sacks LY, 7.5 TFL)

·        H-Back Jalin Marshall ( #2 returning receiver and a future playmaker- avg 11.8 on punt returns last year)

·        H-Back Dontre Wilson (#3 returning receiver and kickoff returner (averaged 24 yards per return LY)

·        WR Corey Smith (#4 returning receiver)

The losses are huge for this Ohio State team in my opinion. This now will be a very inexperienced set of receivers going up against a solid Hokie secondary as they also lost their #1 receiver Devin Smith to the NFL Draft. The loss of Bosa is even bigger as now this D-line is very inexperienced.

Virginia Tech is a homedog for only the 9th time in the last 20 years! They are 7-1 ATS in the previous 8 games and have covered both games when inserted as a double digit homedog. I am seeing this line currently at +10. I advise buying a .5 point to +10.5 as added insurance but regardless I like Tech in this game as an upset would not be surprising to me. Let's take Virginia Tech here to get us a BIG COVER!

Play on Game #207 Purdue (Sunday, 3:00 PM EST)

Marshall will not have the same offense this year that averaged 45 ppg last season. Cato is gone (40 TD's last season). A transfer from James Madison takes over.  Also gone is their best wide receiver and now their returning slot receiver is out for the season. It will take time for the QB to get in sync with the receivers. I will also note that this defense gave up 43 ppg in 2012 when they only returned 4 starters. This season they only return 5. Overall, they lose 7 1st TM CUSA players and lose the most talent by far in CUSA.

For Purdue, this is a BIG 10 team and will play with a chip on their shoulder knowing they are the underdog. Marshall has been their focus since January. They have had 'Marshall Monday's' to ramp up the intensity in practice. Purdue knows the importance of this first game and the HC says the team is ready.

Purdue will have the edge in their running game vs. the Marshall defense. They have an experienced offensive line (return ALL 5 starters) going against an inexperienced line of Marshall. Purdue pass defense also has the edge. The Marshall QB, Birdsong has not played in 21 months
(threw 15 INTS in 2012 for James Madison. He will be rusty. Purdue starts 2 senior cornerbacks.  I also give them the edge in Special teams.

Purdue improved 62 yards on offense and 44 yards on defense. This will be HC Hazell's 3rd year and I look for more improvement and for it to start this Sunday. Take Purdue with the points.

Play on Game #176 Texas A&M (9/05/2015 7:00 PM EST)

I like Texas A&M to win and cover this game. They are playing in Houston, Texas so this will basically be a home game for A&M which is an automatic advantage. Arizona State has to travel about 1100 miles for this game. Texas AM only about 100 miles. I expect a pro 'Texas' crowd for this game. Texas A&M has the better athletes in this game and I expect it to show in the final score.

A&M offense returns 8 starters. They have two tall receivers at 6'4" and 6'5" that can jump up and catch the ball. Speedy Noil is a guy that has blistering speed and the ability to make a big play either as a receiver or as a kick/punt returner. I like Kyle Allen as the quarterback. The kid was the #1 rated QB out of high school and can throw the rock and has put on weight in the offseason. The running backs are an Oregon transfer and a Oklahoma transfer. Tra Carson is listed at 235 lbs and knows how to move the pile and will run over the smaller front 7 of Arizona State.  Texas AM is the bigger and more physical team here. Arizona State's linebackers are too small. The Aggies will have plenty of chances to make big plays down the field, and I'm counting on them to convert.

A&M got a new defensive coordinator in John Chavis. He gets 8 starters back to work with. Chavis kept the entire defensive staff here at A&M and I think he will make an immediate impact in making this defense MUCH better. Myles Garrett might be the best defensive end in football. This is Sumlin's best defensive line yet and they will be putting pressure on the Arizona State quarterback in this game. Arizona State is breaking in a new right and left tackle and I look for Texas A&M to take advantage.

 Arizona State won 10 games last year, but their defense gave up 46 more yards a game than in 2013, which is a red flag. Also, the offense regressed by 15 yards a game from in 2013. So overall, this team was -61 yards net from in 2013. This is Todd Graham's 4th year with Arizona State and the offense has declined and the defense has regressed in every year. (Offense yards: 465 in 2012, 457 in 2013, and 442 in 2014/ Defense yards: 351 in 2012, 372 in 2013, and 417 in 2014). While expectations are high for this team in 2015, I see them regressing more.

Since 2005, Arizona State is 0-4 SU vs. the SEC, losing every game by at least 3 points. I will also note that Texas A&M beat South Carolina in their opener last season as a double digit dog. Nobody expected them to win that game. Sumlin has had all summer to prepare for this game. Give him time, and he will put together a great gameplan. Aggies win this game.

Play on Game #185 Bowling Green (Saturday, 4:00 PM EST)

This game is being played on a neutral in Nashville so the Vols don't have the true home advantage of playing in Neyland Stadium with 100,000+ fans rocking the stadium. Also Tennessee has a revenge game on deck vs. Oklahoma next week. Expectations are high for the Vols this season, but I think too high and that this line is too high as well. To make it worse, the Vols are missing key parts of their offense and defense. Players that are out for this game:

WR Pig Howard (Leading receiver from last season)

LG Marcus Jackson (Senior offensive lineman)--Also their backup LG is out.

FS LaDarrell McNeil (Senior safety, 31 career starts)

DB Rashaan Golden (starting nickel back) [Vols play a lot of nickel defense vs. spread offenses and Bowling Green runs a spread offense]

I feel these injuries play a key factor in this game. The offensive line is still not set and that is not good heading into week 1. The two injuries to the secondary are also huge. Bowling Green has a high powered offense with a quarterback that can sling the ball.

Bowling Green returns 10 starters on offense this year. Matt Johnson is back from an injury that sidelined him last season and will have protection as the offensive line returns 125 starts. Johnson has NFL talent and it showed in 2013 when he completed 64% of his passes with a 25 TD/ 7 INT mark. He has a loaded bunch of receivers and a 1st TM MAC running back to compliment the offense.

Bowling Green will score in this game and keep it close. Remember, this Bowling Green defense was one of the best in 2013 (15.9 ppg) before regressing last year. They brought in a new DC that turned Western Ill into one of the best defenses in FCS last year. I look for him to have this defense improved.

I will also note that Bowling Green opened up @ Florida in 2012 as a 29 point road dog and covered the spread easily, losing 27-14. They are 16-8 ATS their L24 games as DD non-con underdogs covering at a 66% rate.

With the injuries to the Vols and the fact they have a 'look-ahead' game vs. the Sooners to go along with the fact that Bowling Green has one of the fastest tempo offenses in the nation, look for Bowling Green to cover this one easily. 

Play on: Game #171 Northwestern Wildcats Saturday 9/05 (12:00 AM EST)

I like Northwestern here on this Saturday afternoon. For one, this is an early start game which favors Northwestern and is a big disadvantage for Stanford who is a west coast team that usually plays later in the afternoon or night. At kickoff, it will be 9:00 AM in California and these kids are not used to this early start. In 2013 Stanford had an 'early' start on the East Coast vs. Army and had to struggle to win the game. They were a 30.5 point favorite and only won by 14 points as Army had more 1st downs than Stanford. I will also note that Stanford is only 3-6 as a road favorite over the last 2 years.

Northwestern is coming off a pair of under-achieving seasons in my opinion, but I will note that they beat a ranked Wisconsin (#17) last year at home though as a 7.5 point homedog. They also beat Notre Dame (#15) as a 17.5 point road dog. In 2013 they took Ohio State (#4) down to the wire before losing in the last few minutes of the game. Northwestern had a 30-27 lead in the 4th quarter and only got outgained by 14 yards. My point is that Pat Fitzgerald is an experienced coach that knows how to get his team up for big games. The Wildcats started off 0-2 last season losing their first two home games. I think this season it's a big point of emphasis to get off to a better start and that they will do so.

Now, let's take a look at the Northwestern team. The QB play was terrible last year (9 TD/ 14 INT) so a new QB here is a good thing. I expect rFR Clayton Thorson to start at quarterback who was a high recruit out of high school and has a tall frame at 6'4, 210. He fits this offense with a great arm and is mobile as well. They have a promising running back in Justin Jackson, a bruising SB in senior Dan Vitale. They also get their #1 receiver in 2013 back, Christian Jones, along with Miles Shuler who is a Rutgers transfer that got injured last season. I look for the offensive line to also play better after underperforming last season. They have 58 career starts returning this season. The defense is stout up front as they have ALL 4 guys back along with McEvilly who was granted an extra year of eligibility. The secondary will be strong also with 3 seniors starting along with Igwebuike who looked good at SS in his 5 starts last season (51 tackles. 3 PBU. 3 INT). They have an experienced coaching staff and I expect some great continuity. It's nice to not have coaches always moving to other teams. The OC and the DC are in their 8th year while Fitzgerald is in his 10th year.

For Stanford, the losses are heavy on defense this season and it will take time for this defense to play like the typical 'Stanford Defense'. They lost 4 key guys to the NFL. They lost all 3 starters on the D-Line. They lost 8 of their top 12 tacklers. The fact they lost two guys to the draft on the D-Line and two guys in the secondary, I have to think this defense shows their inexperience on the road in Game 1 of the season. I will also note that Stanford loses all their 'key' special teams players. Ty Montgomery was not only their leading receiver, but he was the kickoff/ punt returner and could be electric as he returned 2 punts for a TD last year. They have a freshmen kicker and a walk on punter. Playing on the road in the first game of the season, I could see some mistakes being made like missed field goals or botched punts.

 Northwestern will have the advantage up front in this game. I look for them to control the line of scrimmage and make some big plays down the field using playaction and Thorson's arm.  Sure, Stanford has a senior QB and a good offensive line, but I mentioned the Wildcats will have a strong defensive line this season and will be able to pressure the quarterback. I certainly feel this double digit spread is inflated a bit and a great time for us to cash in as the majority of the public will be on the Stanford Cardinals. Take Northwestern with the double digits!

Play on Game #156 Western Michigan (Friday, Sept 9th 7:00 PM EST)

This is too many points here in this interstate rivalry game, especially on a Friday night. Playing on a Friday is nothing new for Western Michigan as they are in the MAC and play games during the weekdays of the regular season. For Michigan State, I can't remember the last time they played on a weekday during the regular season.

Western Michigan returns 16 starters this season from a team that averaged 33.8 ppg last year. HC P.J. Fleck is now in his 3rd season and this is his best team yet. On offense, they return 96% of their offense from last season. QB Terrell was a 2nd Tm MAC selection, RB Franklin was the MAC Off POY, and WR Davis was a 1st Tm MAC selection as well. Davis is 6'3" and so is Roberts, then they have a speedster in Braverman who is a natural playmaker. They return 79 car starts on the offensive line including the key guys that were 2nd and 3rd Tm MAC selections last year. On defense, Western Michigan returns 7 including 5 seniors. The defense tightened up 10 ppg and 50 ypg last year and I'm expecting continued improvement. The front 7 looks strong once again and they will hold their own in this game. The Western Michigan secondary is their one weakness, but they do have 2 seniors in the secondary, including one guy that had 17 PBU last year. They will be alright here since Michigan State lost 2 WR's to the NFL Draft. Special teams units returns intact as well. They have a senior FG kicker and a senior punter. The punter improved 6 yards on his punts last year and the FG kicker made his L10 of the season.

For Michigan State, they return 13 starters but lose RB Langford and his 1500+ yards and 22 TD's. They also have to replace their top2 WR's (both NFL Draft Picks). I don't expect this offense to be clicking in this first game of the season. On defense, the D-Line is good, but they lost linebacker Ed Davis to a season ending knee injury. Davis was a preseason All-Big Ten Selection this year and was the Spartans most productive player in 2014 according to coaches. In the secondary, they lose all 4 starters from last year's team. The secondary is young and inexperienced and Western Michigan has the offense to stay competitive in this game.

Series History: Western Michigan is 0-5 SU and 2-3 ATS since '97 vs. Michigan State. But all 5 of these games were played @ Michigan State. Now Western Michigan has the home field advantage. Last time these teams met was in 2013 and we saw a 26-13 score as WMU covered as a 28 point road dog. It was a close game as WMU only had 4 less 1st downs than Mich State. I will note this 2011 WMU team only had 1 win on the season and are much better now.

Michigan State has a BIG revenge game upcoming vs. Oregon. I can guarantee they are more concerned with that game as MSU had a 27-18 lead in that game before losing 46-27. Western Michigan had 5 losses last year and the average loss was by 10.4 points with the largest loss coming on the road by 18 @ Virginia Tech (covered the 21 point spread). Michigan State is 2-5 SU in their L7 road openers including losing their last 2. Scheduling advantage goes to WMU also in this game. Michigan State is used to playing their first game at home and are not used to playing on Fridays.

I think WMU hangs in this game the whole time. But we have a few advantages also just in case we need a backdoor cover. 1) An offense with skilled players vs. a young Mich State secondary 2) Michigan State has the revenge game vs. Oregon the following week. These are young college kids and their focus will not be on this game and I can see them 'taking plays off' in the 2nd half. 3) I also like the +18.5 in this game. It's a great number as if they lose by 17 or 18 (which are key football numbers), we still cover the spread.

Look for Western Michigan to get the cover for us on Friday night!

Play on Game #152 SMU Mustangs (7:00 PM EST)

I like SMU in this game. This is not about who will win the game, but who will cover the spread. I think SMU has the motivational edge for this game, and also has the edge as far as coaching goes with Chad Morris  Clemson OC) as their new head coach.

For Baylor, they lost their QB to the NFL draft and also lost their offensive coordinator. Considering it is the 1st game of the season, I think this factor should be worth at least a touchdown at the minimum. He played in a few games last year (SMU, Northwestern St, and Oklahoma State) and he only completed 56.5% of his passes, compared to Petty's 63%.  I think the loss of Montgomery as the offensive coordinator is huge. This guy orchestrated this high scoring Baylor offense. I expect some stalled drives and an offense that probably will not be in full sync until week5 vs. Texas Tech. They also lost their punter who averaged 43.4 yards a punt and had 19 punts inside the 20 yard line (40%). Now they have a freshmen punter on the road, and I have to expect some stalled drives and bad punts here on the road, awarding SMU with some good field position.

For SMU, this is a HUGE game for them and I know they will be motivated. SMU lost 45-0 last year @ Baylor and only had 67 yards of total offense. So trust me, the players remember this beat down, and I think bringing in HC Chad Morris from Clemson will give them a fresh start and he will have some plays drawn up to spark this offense and catch the Baylor defense off guard. Matt Davis is a mobile quarterback (SMU leading rusher last season) and fits Morris system. In the spring game, Davis looked good and was hooking up with 6-4 rFR Courtland Sutton. I expect Davis to make some big plays down the field in this game as Sutton has a big height advantage over the smaller cornerbacks. SMU has two big running backs (242 lb and 239 lb) and an offensive line that does return 104 starts so I look for Davis to have time in the pocket to get the ball to his playmakers. Morris did a great job when he had Taj Boyd at Clemson and I think he will run the same type of offense. The defense had 6 sacks in the spring game and were relentless which is a good sign for this season. They have an experienced secondary and let's face it, this team can only get better. Their new DC most recently was at Oklahoma State so he has experience of what to expect from this Baylor offense. I will note that Oklahoma State held Baylor to 17 points in 2013 and last year held Petty to 262 yards passing.

Baylor is 3-7-1 ATS as a road favorite the L3 years. They are clearly a better covering team at home. Before last year's season, SMU had been a much more competitive team. They were 8-2 ATS as a homedog in 2009-2013 before going 1-5 ATS as a homedog last season. This is clearly a better team this year with a new head coach. The offensive coordinator has been tutored by Morris over the last few years and the defensive coordinator has coached in the BIG 12 before, as mentioned earlier. I think the Mustangs are excited for this season and will leave it all on the field this Friday night.

Play on Game #139 Michigan Wolverines Thursday 9/03(8:30 PM EST)

I like Michigan here getting the points. This is the first game for the Wolverines under new HC Jim Harbaugh and it will be a big revenge game from last year's 26-10 loss to Utah. Looking closer at that game though, Michigan actually outgained the Utes 308-268 and held them to 2.2 yards per rush and 35% on 3rd down conversions. The problem was they were -3 in turnover differential and for tonight, I like Michigan to take care of the ball with new QB Jake Rudock under center. Rudock is a graduate transfer from Utah who was 2nd in the BIG 10 last season with a 61.7 completion percentage. Michigan has the advantages in this game on both offense and defense.

Utah lost their best defensive player, Nate Orchard, to the NFL draft. He was a beast that had 18.5 sacks last season. His loss will give Rudock more time in the pocket. Michigan has some big powerful running backs also and I think they will be able to run the ball effectively and make some big plays down the field vs. an inexperienced secondary. The Utah secondary lost 110 career starts from last season and now has lost even more as CB Dominique Hatfield has been kicked off the team. That leaves two guys that were out with injuries last season and the free safety is a former QB with little experience also.

Harbaugh has had all summer to get his team ready for this game and to exploit the weakness of the Utah secondary. Michigan has the better defense in this matchup and it will show. They return 24 of the 29 players that appeared on the depth chart last season and also get SS Jabril Peppers who is 100% healthy and is a 'freak' on the field. The kid is a playmaker that can be a game changer. Harbaugh brought with him coaches that were with him at Stanford and/or San Fran. The new DC is DJ Durkin and he will be using more press coverage this season. The Utah receivers are young and not as experienced. Look for the Wolverines to make a couple of interceptions in this game that will be huge for us. I also think the special teams can come up big in this game as Harbaugh had some top 25 special teams at Stanford and new ST coach finished in the top 33 in ALL 4 years at USC.

I think Michigan wins this game straight up here, but all we need for them to do is to cover the spread.  Take Michigan this Thursday night!

Play on Game #271 Philadelphia Eagles (Saturday 8:00 OM EST)

The Eagles are rolling right along in the Preseason looking like the team to beat with wins of the score of 36-10 and 40-17. They are +4 in turnovers and this offense looks to be clicking. Bradford looked good last week. Sanchez and Barkley look good as well. The rookie WR Nelson Agholor leads the team in targets and gives the team another threat other than Jordan Matthews. In both games, the defense has allowed under 300 yards and Chip Kelly will have his team ready for this game. This is a revenge game also from last season when the Eagles lost 53-20. It was a closer game actually. The Eagles had 4 turnovers in the game to causer this lopsided score. Also, Jordy Nelson who is out with a torn ACL had 109 yards receiving in that game.

The Eagles are 5-0 ATS the L5 years in week 3 of the Preseason and I expect this trend to carry over tonight. The Eagles also tie into a System Play as in the Preseason, we want to play on 2-0 teams that are coming off B2B home wins. When they are coming off a DD win, these teams are 26-10-1 ATS (70%).

The fact that the Packers have stated that Rodgers might not even play and 3 of their offensive line starters did not practice on Wednesday tells me they could care less about winning this game. Lay the points with Philly. 

Play on Game #275 Seattle Seahawks (Saturday, 8:00 PM EST)

The Seahawks are 0-2 in the Preseason, but that does not worry me for this game. Seattle is 4-0 ATS in Week of the Preseason and HC Carroll is 13-2 ATS vs. an opponent off a SU win in the Preseason. This is a Seahawks team that went 8-0 SU in 2012 and 2013 before going 2-2 last year so they are 10-4 SU in the preseason the L3 years.  Carroll likes to win and I can guarantee you he will have his team ready for this game.  The Chargers beat Seattle last season so they will have revenge on their mind and be motivated.

The Chargers are 2-0 in the Preseason but have been outgained in both games so don't let that fool you.  For Seattle, they are expected to get back a lot of their secondary also for this game that didn't play last week (Sherman, Blackmon, Simon, and possibly Ryan Murphy).

The Seahawks fit in a powerful System Play for Week3 of the Preseason. We want to play on ANY 0-2 road favorite or dog

Play on Game #265 Cleveland Browns (Saturday 7:00 PM EST)

The Cleveland Browns have the benefit of playing with much more rest than the Bucs in this game. Cleveland played last Thursday while Tampa Bay just played Monday night. The Browns will be the much fresher and more prepared team for this 'dress rehearsal' game.

Josh McCown has been named the starter for the Browns and he gets to face his former team so he will be playing with a chip on his shoulder and expect him to have a big game. I look for him to make some big passes down the field and exploit the Bucs secondary. Also RB Duke Johnson has looked great in practice and makes his debut on Saturday. Look for Johnson to have several big runs. Johnny Manziel has also looked good in the preseason and I like his ability to make plays against the 2nd team Bucs defense. I will also note that Cleveland is expected to get some of their defenders back for this game that missed the last game.

Remember the Bengals shot their selves in the foot last Monday with a bunch of turnovers against Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay did not look that good to me. They committed 14 penalties and got sacked 4 times. They still struggled to find the end zone off of turnovers. I will also note that Mike Evans is out for the Bucs and that is a big target that Winston will not have to throw the ball too.

All the key advantages are on our side tonight and we are getting points. Take the Cleveland Browns!

Play on Game #256 Jacksonville Jaguars (8:00 PM EST)

I like Jacksonville in this game on National television (CBS). The Jaguars have shown improvement over their 1st 2 preseason games. Bortles has looked good completing 61% of his passes. I think we see him play at least the 1st half of this game. The back-up Chad Henne has completed 73% of his passes this preseason and is an 8 year veteran. The offensive line has done a good job of protecting the QB and the defensive line of the Lions is not nearly as good with the loss of Suh and Fairley. TJ Yeldon is expected to make his debut and I expect him to find some open gaps as the offensive line has been able to run block effectively also in the 1st 2 games. The Jaguars 1st team offense has scored on 5 of 6 possessions this season and a victory in this game.

Motivation is a big key in preseason and the Jags have it while the Lions don't. HC Caldwell has lost 12 of his 18 preseason games. Stafford has only thrown 10 passes in the preseason. I doubt he plays very long in this game also as the Lions have a new right guard they are breaking in. Ill also note that Calvin Johnson is not expected to play.

This will be Jacksonville's final preseason home game. They want to win this one and gain some fan support for the regular season while this is more of a meaningless game for the Lions. Take Jacksonville (-) the points tonight. 

Play on Game #421 Oakland Raiders (8:00 PM EST)

I like the Raiders in this spot. I like what I saw from the Raiders in Week1 under new defensive minded head coach Jack Del Rio. They held the Arizona Cardinals to only 3 points and under 300 yards of offense. I also like the way the offense looked in this new up-tempo attack led by OC Musgrave who came from Philly after working with Chip Kelly. Starting quarterback Derek Carr thrived in the no-huddle attack at Fresno State and he looked comfortable in the offense. Christian Ponder and Matt McGloin are fighting for the #2 QB spot and both were efficient in the offense as well. Ponder last played for the Vikings so he is plenty of familiar with their defensive schemes and I expect him to thrive and have a solid game.

This being the Raiders 2nd preseason game, I expect the starters to play a bit more as Del Rio wants to really see what he is working with. In training camp, the offensive line has looked great and they have depth at the running back position and receiver position with Streater back in the lineup.

For the Vikings, this is their 3rd preseason game and they are 2-0 but I think this is too many points to be giving up tonight. Considering they were a 3.5 point fav vs. Tampa Bay and rookie Jameis Winston and now they are a full 1 point higher to a 4.5 point home favorite. The Time of Possession and the yardage was about equal in that game. Also, in the Hall of Fame game the yardage was about equal and so was the time of possession. I will also note that the Vikings have injuries all over their offensive line and will be playing a lot of young and unproven linemen tonight.

I can't see the Raiders losing this game by anymore than a field goal. There is rain expected in the forecast which also gives us more value with the underdog as the Underdog is 4-1 ATS the last 5 meetings. Take the Oakland Raiders tonight!

Play on Game #411 Baltimore Ravens +3.5 (Saturday 7:00 PM EST)

I like the Ravens here on Saturday night. John Harbaugh is 5-1 ATS in his L6 Preseason games as a road underdog. The Ravens have had extra time to get ready for this game (9 days) while the Eagles have only had 6 days. Look for the extra rest and preparation to pay off with a cover this Saturday night. The Ravens have a veteran backup QB in Matt Schaub who will be efficient and the Ravens will be ready for the Eagles offense as they have had joint practices together for 3 days earlier in the week.

The Eagles final score in Week 1 vs. the Colts was misleading. The Colts had 4 turnovers in that game and allowed a PR for a touchdown that made for a lopsided score. I will note that that the Colts had a time of possesion advantage of about 13 minutes which I think the Ravens will do the same thing. The Eagles QB's did not look good either. Barkley threw a pick, Sanchez was only 2-for-7, and Tebow only completed 50% of his passes and got sacked 3 times. Bradford has never taken a snap as a Eagle either.

With the Ravens being the fresher team and Harbuagh's recent 5-1 ATS mark as a road dog in the Preseason, look for the Ravens to get us the cash. While I like the Ravens to win this game, I'd like to buy .5 point if possible to +3.5 as most books have the line set at +3 currently. (Take Ravens +3.5)

Play on Game #403 Buffalo Bills +3 (7:00 PM EST)

I like the Bills here this Thursday night. I think the Bills have the better offense and the better defense for this game. The Bills lost their Week 1 game 25-24 to Carolina but they dominated the Time of Possession 37 mins to 22 mins for Carolina. They also dominated on the ground rushing for over 200 yards and held the Panthers to only 73 yards and I look for this success to carry over in Week2. The Bills will have Tyrod Taylor get the start this Thursday night and he was impressive in his debut.  Tyrod Taylor gives them more of a dual threat as he rushed for 47 yards in Week 1. Then we will see a lot of Matt Cassel who was efficient in Week 1 taking what the defenses gave him.  In the 4th quarter look for EJ Manuel to engineer and scoring drive or 2 as well as he has been great in practice this year delivering on the deep throws.  I know the Bills have a couple running backs out but they have brought in some new youngsters to run against this soft Cleveland run defense.

The Browns only had 170 yards of offense in their opener vs. the Redskins who have a sub-par defense at best and got outgained by 198 yards.  The defense was not sharp either as they gave up-368 yards (153 rushing yards) and the defensive pass rush was almost non-existent registering one sack while the Redskins registered 5 sacks.  I will also note that the Browns are expected to be missing a few key starters in the secondary for this game.The Bills have a much better pass rush than the Redskins and I look for them to put pressure on McCown and Manziel.

The Bills are 2-0 ATS in Week 2 of the Preseason the L2 years and Rex Ryan is 2-0 ATS the L2Y when he was coaching with the Jets in the Preseason.

The Browns and the Bills have been scrimmaging earlier in the week and Robert Woods has been torching the Cleveland secondary. I will also note that the Buffalo defensive line had the upper hand over the Cleveland offensive line for most of the scrimmage on Monday. Look for the Bills to CA$H this one Thursday night. 

Play on Game #281 Indianapolis Colts (12:00 PM EST)

I like the Colts here on Sunday afternoon.  I expect the Colts starters to log a series or two... Probably 10-15 snaps... That should be enough for Andrew Luck to get in the box for a touchdown.... Now to the backups: Look for the offensive line to play a little longer than the position players which is also beneficial for us. On defense, the Colts have 5 rookies they drafted and will see a decent amount of playing time as they have either been on the 1st or 2nd team in training camp. I will also note that rookie RB Josh Robinson has looked good in camp and should be a factor in the running game. All-in-all, I like the Colts offense and defense better than the Eagles in this game.

As far as QB depth goes, the Colts have a seasoned veteran in Matt Hasselbeck who I expect to play into the 3rd quarter. They also have Bryan Bennett who can make the big throws down the field. In the 2015 combine, Bennett had the fastest throw of any quarterback and he is athletic as well.

For the Eagles,  QB Sam Bradford won't play in this game so I give the Colts the edge here. Sanchez will get the start, followed by Barkley and Tebow. Most of this game will be Barkley and Tebow fighting for the #3 position. Tebow hasn't played since 2013 and Barkley was an unimpressive 7-for-16 for 73 yards in the opener last season. I will also note that the Phillies offensive line has been newly configured and I have to think it will take time for them get in sync.

 The Eagles are 1-9 ATS their L10 in Week 1 of the Preseason as they don't care about winning. The Colts are playing with revenge from losing a 30-27 game to the Eagles last year on Monday Night Football. It was a tough loss for them as they appeared to have the game in hand before an INT in the 4th quarter. I look for the Colts to be motivated for this game with revenge on their mind even it is a preseason game. Take the points with the Colts!

Play on Game #278 Houston Texas (8:00 PM EST)

I like the Houston Texas here. They have the better QB depth by far and Brian Hoyer and Ryan Mallet will be competing of the starting position while Tom Savage is listed 3rd on the depth chart. Savage made one career start for the Texans last season. I look for Savage to play most of the 2nd half and this is his 2nd year in the offense now and all reports say he has improved and I believe he will be efficient leading the offense.

For the 49ers, their QB depth does not have much talent and this is HC Jim Tomsula's first official game for the 49ers. The 49ers have a rather large amount of guys on the injury reports and their defense already took some big losses in the off-season. This San Fran offense was 'built from scratch' basically in the offseason. They have an all new coaching staff (Head Coach, Offensive Coordinator, and Defensive Coordinator). Blaine Gabbert for the 49ers is their 2nd string QB and he is just not an NFL QB in my opinion. Undrafted QB Dylan Thompson will probably play the 4th quarter for the 49ers and I think the Texans defense wins this game by making stops and forcing a few turnovers.

The Houston wide receivers should have a field day against the inexperienced 49ers secondary. I'm looking for some big plays downfield. The Texans are playing at home which is worth about 3 points in the preseason.  I think the Texans should be at least a 4 point favorite in this game and that we are getting great value only having to lay -2.5 points. Look for the Texans to pull away in the 2nd half of this one and win comfortably. Take the Houston Texans!

Play on Game #270 Jacksonville Jaguars (Friday 7:30 PM EST)

It is evident that Mike Tomlin does not care about winning in the preseason. This is the Steelers 2nd preseason game, but they are playing on a Friday which is a short week as they played last Sunday vs. the Vikings. The Steelers are now 1-9 SU their L10 preseason games.

Landry Jones looked terrible as he played the whole game for the Steelers in Week 1. Jones only completed 50% of his passes and about half of those were to the running back. They have Tajh Boyd also, but he has never taken a snap in the NFL and is an erratic passer while Gradkowski is on the PUP list with s shoulder injury. I will also note the Steelers lost their kicker Shaun Shuisham in last Sunday's game and this needs to be accounted for as well.

The Jaguars got a new offensive coordinator in the offseason. Greg Olsen did a good job with the rookie Derek Carr last season and I expect him to lead the Jaguars to more points this season, especially in the red zone. In a scrimmage last Saturday, Bortles threw 2 touchdown passes in the red zone and was placing throws where they needed to be placed, where only the receiver could catch them. Olsen said that he is pleased with the Jaguars grasp on the new offense especially in the red zone. Bortles and Henne are the two quarterbacks for the Jags. While Bortles will get the 1st team snaps, Henne will get the 2nd team snaps and he is an 8 year veteran. Henne is a lot better than the Steelers back up QB's in Tajh Boyd and Landry Jones. Blake Bortles has looked sharp in training camp and I'm expecting him to lead the Jags to a scoring drive vs. the poor Pittsburgh defense. Henne completed 66% of his passes last preseason while Bortles completed 63% and neither threw an interception.

The Jags released their first official depth chart and what stood it to me the most is that co-starters are listed for the RB, DT, CB, and Center. So there will be competition at these positions and I look for the Jaguars to be the team to play with more motivation for this game.

The Jaguars are playing at home and I think they want to win this game. With Mike Tomlin's 1-9 SU record in the last 10 preseason games, look for the Jaguars to win this one on Friday night. 

Play on Game #251 New Orleans Saints (9/13/2015 7:30 PM EST)

I like the Saints here on Thursday night. This is the 1st game of the preseason and New Orleans is more of the team that has something to prove in this game. The Saints are coming off a disappointing 7-9 season and I mention this because they went 7-9 in 2012 then followed up by going 3-1 in the 2013 preseason winning their first 3 preseason games.  They are now 4-0 ATS the last 4 years in week 1 of the preseason. I think they start off the season with the same sense of urgency. I will also note that in 2014 they won their 1st 3 preseason games as well.

Luke McCown and Ryan Griffin have both played good in the preseason last year. McCown is a 12 year veteran that completed 60% of his passes in the preseason last year with a 3 TD/ 1 INT mark. Griffin completed 62% of his passes with a 3 TD/ 1 INT mark also. I mention this because these guys are competing for the #2 spot of the roster. The Saints drafted Garrett Grayson and there is only room for 3 quarterbacks. I expect both guys to play at their best and to lead their team to some scores.

I will also note this is a double revenge game for the Saints. They lost to the Ravens in week 4 of the preseason last year and then lost in week 12 at home also on a Monday night. I can guarantee they remember this Monday Night loss and they will be motivated for this game. The Ravens rushed for over 200 yards in this game and DC Rex Ryan will make it an emphasis to stop the run in this game. New Orleans made it a priority in the offseason to improve their defense and their overall toughness and I expect it to show in this game.

The Ravens have Matt Schaub and Bryn Renner has their quarterbacks and neither has ever taken an official snap as a Raven. While Schaub has experience, he doesn't have experience with the team. Schaub has also been terrible the last 2 years in the NFL. Last year with Oakland he threw 2 INT in only 10 passing attempts with 3 fumbles. In 2013, he had a 10 TD/ 14 INT mark and this guy his past his prime. Renner has never taken a snap in the NFL and lacks the NFL caliber velocity after suffering a shoulder injury in 2013. I look for the Saints defense to come up big in this one with a few turnovers whether it be an interception or a sack with a strip fumble.

Sean Payton is 13-3 ATS on the road in preseason games including 9-1 ATS as an underdog. We are getting a motivated Saints team tonight with a head coach that has a proven track record on the road in the preseason. We are also getting a Saints team that has more depth and better quarterbacks. Take the Saints!

Play on Game #242 Minnesota Vikings (8:00 PM EST)

I like the Vikings here in the Hall of Fame game. The Vikings went 4-0 last Preseason and I think they continue on with a strong effort this preseason. Adrian Peterson will be making his return after not playing last year. (Automatic advantage in the backfield as Leveon Bell is suspended for Pittsburgh). I expect Peterson to get a fair amount of action early and the Vikings will love for him to score. I like Norv Turner as the offensive coordinator in this game to expose the young Pittsburgh defense. I will also note that the Vikings have depth in the backfield with McKinnon and Asiata who had 277 carries combined last season. They got Mike Wallace in the off season who can catch the deep ball and expose the Steelers' defense. I also think Coradelle Patterson can have a big game here and he will get plenty of playing time. Kyle Rudolph is healthy as Tight End and I think this offense is looking pretty strong and deep. Backing up Bridgewater is veteran Shaun Hill who led the Rams to a win over the Broncos last season. Hill is a quarterback who can make throws and lead an efficient offense for the 2nd string being a 14 year veteran in the NFL.

For the Steelers, they are without their stud running back LeVeon Bell. They also lost their long time defensive coordinator Dick Lebeau in the off-season. It will take time for this defense to adjust. This is a young Pittsburgh defense and again, I think they will get exploited. HC Tomlin has not cared too much about winning in the preseason as of late either as the Steelers went 0-4 in 2013 and 1-3 last year. The Steelers lost their 1st preseason game by a score of 10-0. In 2013, they lost their 1st game on the preseason 25-10. Looking closer, Big Ben did not even play in either of those games. Obviously, Tomlin cares more about his players health and seeing what the 2nd string has to offer than trying to win a game. The Steelers backup Quarterback's are not good either. Gradowski is on the PUP and that means Landry Jones is the next guy in line who has never appeared in a regular season football game and neither has Tajh Boyd. It has been reported that Jones has been 'up and down' in OTA's this season.

In closing, I think depth is important when looking at this game. Minnesota has more depth and a better 2nd string QB in Hill, a 14 year veteran. Expectations are high for the Vikings this season and they will start it off with a WIN and a COVER. Take the Vikings!

Play on Game #977 Texas Rangers (+1.5) runs w/ Lewis (4:10 PM EST)

Play on Game #952 Washington Nationals (-1.5) runs w/ Scherzer (1:35 PM EST)

Play on Game #968 NY Yankees (-1.5) runs w/ Tanaka (1:05 PM EST)

Play on Game #908 Washington Nationals w/ Ross (-1.5 runs) 4:05 PM EST

Joe Ross takes the mound this afternoon and he has a 0.92 WHIP on the season. He has a 40K/4 BB mark and has been their most consistent starter other than Scherzer in my opinion. I believe that we can depend on Ross to go out there and throw a quality start this afternoon.

Hellickson takes the mound for the Diamondbacks. Hellickson just got pounded for 7 hits (3 homeruns) @ Houston last start. He has now given up 10 homeruns on the road this season. He faced the Nationals earlier this season and gave up 4 ER in 5.2 IP, including a homerun by Jayson Werth.

After watching the post game report with the Washington Nationals coach last night, he indicated that he will have his team fired up for this game. They need this game to even the series at 2-2. From a scheduling standpoint, Arizona is now playing their 10th straight road game and I think this favors us also in this early game. Arizona scored 11 runs last night (17 hits). I mention this because looking back this season, when they have scored 8+ runs, they are 4-10 in their next game. They beat Washington 14-6 earlier this season then lost 9-6 the next game (Hellickson was on the mound). That was the ONLY game this season that Washington has given up 10+ runs in a game before last night and they responded with a 9-6 victory the next game.

Arizona has lost 6 of Hellickson's road starts this season. 5 of those 6 losses have come by 2 or more runs. So when they lose, it's by 2 or more runs 80% of the time. Overall, Arizona has lost 7 of Hellickson's 9 starts by 2 or more runs (77%). Washington is still 9-3 the L12 meetings in Washington and tend to own this series. I have the feeling the offense gets ignited in this one and we see an EASY WIN. Take Washington -1.5 runs (+155). 

Play on Game #905 Washington Nationals (+1.5) w/ Zimmerman (8:05 PM EST)

I like the Washington tonight in this Sunday Night ESPN game. The Nationals have won both of Zimmerman's starts this season vs. the Mets and the Nationals are now 7-0 in his L7 starts overall vs. the Mets.

I have been high on Washington as of late. We won with them taking the +1.5 runs yesterday and this is another big game where I can't see them losing by more than 1 run. Washington is now 14-7 (66%) as a road dog playing the run line while the Mets are18-24 (42%) as a home favorite playing the run line. The Nationals have won 6 of Zimmerman's L7 starts overall and he has a 51K/ 9 BB mark over his L11 starts which tells me he is in great current form.

Syndergaard is coming off a near no-hitter vs. the Padres and puts him in an automatic 'fade' spot tonight. As far as offenses go, we have the better offense here tonight with Washington.  Syndergaard has yet to face Rendon, Zimmerman, and Werth so I expect him to have a tougher time with them tonight. There is a lot of pressure on the youngster to follow up with his 'near perfect' game last start. Pressure burst pipes. I really think the Nationals find a way to win this game, but then again, I think the percentages are strongly more in our favor to take the +1.5 runs. The Mets have found ways to win the first two games of this series. We have to lay the juice here again tonight but the Underdog has been cashing in these ESPN Sunday night games and we have seen our fair share of one runs games as well. Take the Nationals with the +1.5 tonight!

Play on Game #979 San Fran Giants (+1.5 runs) with Heston (8:05 PM EST)

Sure we have to lay some juice in this game, but the Giants are a very strong play tonight. They will have Heston on the mound who has a 1.15 WHIP this season. He has won his last 3 starts and finished July with a 1.57 ERA. Heston made an interleague start earlier this season @ Houston and threw a complete game as the Giants won 8-1. I give Heston the edge in this game also as none of the Rangers hitters have ever faced him.

Cole Hamels will make his debut for Texas but unfortunately it is against the Giants who are collectively hitting .353 vs. him and he has a 4.21 career ERA vs. the Giants. Hamles is coming off a 129 pitch, no hitter, giving us more reason to fade him tonight. He faced the Giants earlier this season and got shelled for 12 hits and 9 runs. Hamels has allowed 5 ER or more now in 4 of his last 8 starts.

I will also note that Texas has the worst bullpen in the majors with a 4.67 ERA and they have 11 blow saves on the season. The Giants are hitting .272 on the season vs. left handed starters which gives us more confidence for this game.

Now, this is why I want to take the +1.5 runs in this game. While the Giants have a great chance of winning this game straight up, they are a MLB BEST 23-7 (76.7%) as a road underdog (+1.5) this season. The Rangers have only been favored in 15 home games this season and they are only 4-11 (26.7%) laying the -1.5. Texas won last night and covered and percentages are on our side tonight. San Fran is 13-3 in their L16 games and playing good baseball last night. Take the +1.5 runs tonight!

Play on Game #955 Washington Nationals (+1.5) w/ Ross (7:10 PM EST)

We lost a tough one last night with the Nationals. Gonzalez did his job but the offense just couldn't get anything going. I feel tonight's game is a case of which offense has the best chance to get their offense going and the Nationals still have the better bats.

While DeGrom has been the Mets ace this season, I like the Nationals again here and can't see them losing this game by more than 1 run. Joe Ross takes the mound for the Nats and he has a 0.95 WHIP on the season. Ross has a 22K/ 2 BB mark in his L3 starts. He is holding right handed batters to a .187 BA with a 24K/ 1 BB mark. So while the Mets got Cespedes in a trade, I don't see him being a factor tonight.

The Nationals recently got Rendon, Werth, and Zimmerman back in the lineup which gives Bryce Harper more protection and makes him even more effective, which I have mentioned before. Zimmerman is 2-for-5 vs. DeGrom with a HR, Harper is 3-for-7, and Werth is 1-for-3. Rendon in the leadoff spot is a huge upgrade for the Nationals also. Harper went hitless last night and got thrown out of the game and I think he makes up for it tonight. While DeGrom has been dominant, I can't see the Mets winning this game by more than 1 run. The Nationals are 13-7 (65%) +1.5 runs this season as a road underdog. DeGrom is only 5-5 (50%) career as a home favorite laying the -1.5 runs. Take Washington this Saturday with the +1.5 runs. This is a big game here tonight as 1st place as both teams are fighting for the lead in the division, again making the +1.5 runs more attractive. Also, the fact that the Nationals have won 74% of the last 51 meetings in Citi Field suggest that they will bounce back and win this game. We have two ways to win this bet: Either win the game straight up or lose by one run. Considering the fact that the Mets are still ranked last in the Majors in batting average and runs per game, I like the Nationals here with the +1.5 runs!

Play on Game #957 Cincinnati Reds (+1.5 runs) w/ Leake (8:15 PM EST)

I like the Reds here with the 1.5 runs. It's hard to fade the Cardinals completely in this game considering the fact they are 11-3 as a home favorite of -150 to -175 this season and 36-11 overall at home as a favorite so I want to take the 1.5 runs. I do like the pitching matchup we have though as Leake is in great form right now and Garcia is coming off the DL for the Cardinals. Leake takes the mound and he has a 1.61 ERA for the month of July. Leake has now allowed 3 ER or less in 8 of his L9 starts. There are talks about him being on the trading block and I have to expect a solid outing from him again tonight.

Looking at the run line in this game, the Reds are 21-13 (61.8%) as a road dog with the 1.5 runs this season. For Saint Louis, they are only 20-27 (42.6%) as a home favorite laying the -1.5 runs this season. Looking at these percentages, the Reds +1.5 are the correct play here tonight.

The Reds offense is clicking right now also as they are hitting .302 as a team over their L7 games. They are scoring 3.9 runs a game vs. left handed starters on the season with a .251 average. Votto is on a tear right now and now the middle of the lineup is deadly with Bruce and Byrd. The Cardinals are a very popular pick by the public tonight which is another reason I like the Reds as a 'fade the 'public' play is in order. While the Reds +160 does look attractive, I feel the correct play is to take the +1.5 runs here based on the percentages I mentioned above. Take the Reds +1.5 runs!

Play on Game #909 Chi White Sox (+1.5 runs) w/ Danks (7:10 PM EST)

The White Sox have won 4 in a row and will have Danks on the mound who has been pitching well as of late. He has a 2.25 ERA from the month of July and has not allowed a homerun. I like the pitching matchup here tonight as they will face Joe Kelly for the Red Sox. The Red Sox have lost his last 4 starts and are 5-11 overall in his 16 starts this season. Kelly has a 5.74 ERA and a 1.49 WHIP. Right handed batters are hitting .310 vs. Kelly and the White Sox have a lineup where they can stack the right side of the plate. The White Sox hit the ball much better off of right handed pitchers and I look for them to score runs tonight. The Red Sox are only hitting .235 on the season vs. left handed pitchers with a .366 SLG%.

Pedroia is on the DL for the Red Sox and Brock Holt is listed as questionable for this game which makes their infield weaker. The White Sox are as healthy as they have been all season long. Danks won his last start at Fenway Park (7/10/2014). The White Sox are now 5-0 in their L5 games as a road underdog of +110- +150 while the Red Sox are 0-6 in Kelly's L6 starts as a favorite.

When playing on the run line (+1.5) as a road underdog this season, the White Sox are 21-16 (56.8%). The Red Sox on the other hand are 14-31 (31.1%) when using the run line (-1.5) as a home favorite. They have lost 69% of Kelly's starts this season and of the 5 wins, only 2 of those have been by more than 2 runs. While I think the White Sox have momentum and have a good chance of winning this game, I want to lay the juice and take the White Sox +1.5 as the percentages are highly in our favor. Again, we have 2 ways to win this bet. We can win the game straight up, or we can lose by one run. Considering the fact that the Red Sox have only won 31% of their home games by 2 or more runs when favored, Danks is pitching his best of the season, and the Red Sox continuing struggles vs. lefties, we have a live dog tonight. Take the White Sox +1.5!

Play on Game #927 Texas Rangers on the Run Line (+1.5) (9:05 PM EST)

I like Texas with the 1.5 runs tonight. The Rangers lead the MLB covering the 1.5 runs at a 77% rate. Gallardo takes the mound and he has a 2.91 ERA on the season with a 1.27 WHIP. Gallardo was un-hittable for the month of June, and has now alternated dominating starts with a bad start in July. Following the trend, he will be back to his dominant self tonight after giving up 5 runs his last start. The Rangers will face Santiago who I expect to take a step back in the 2nd half of the season. I honestly don't think this guy can keep his 2.30 ERA/ 1.13 WHIP up. This will be his 4th time this season facing the Rangers this season so the Texas hitters should be getting used to what to expect from the lefty. I will also note that the Angels starting 3B, David Freese, is on the DL and he had 11 HR and 43 RBI on the season. This is a big revenge series for the Rangers. They got swept and outscored at home a few weeks ago by the Angels by a combined score of 33-8. I think the Rangers will play better baseball here on Saturday to make amends. I think the pitching matchup is about equal and I also think the offenses are about equal. We have to lay some juice to get the 1.5 runs, but this is the best team in the Majors at covering the 1.5 runs. (Take Texas Rangers +1.5)

Play on Game #965 Baltimore Orioles w/ Tillman +1.5 runs (7:10 PM EST)

I like the Orioles here +1.5 runs with Tillman on the mound. If they were playing a lil better ball on the road, I would take them to win the game straight up, but I can't see them losing this one by more than 1 run. I will note that Baltimore is 24-10 on the run line this season as a road underdog covering at a 70.6% rate. I will also note that Tampa Bay is 13-18 at home on the run line as a favorite covering at a 42% rate only.

Tillman takes the rubber and the Orioles have won 7 of his L8 starts. On the road this season, the Orioles are 5-3 overall in his 8 starts, but ALL 3 of the losses were only by one run! I will also note that Tillman is 2-0 career matched up against Chris Archer. Tampa Bay will have Archer on the rubber and they have lost his L4 starts now. Current members of the Orioles are hitting .300 vs. him with a .482 SLG%. At home this season, the Rays are only 5-5 in his 10 starts. Of those 5 wins, only 3 have come by more than 2 runs. So in only 30% of his home starts have the Rays won by more than 2 runs.

The Rays are only scoring 2.2 runs a game since the All-Star Break and hitting only .218. The Orioles are slightly better at 3.8 runs a game and a .245 batting average. We have to lay some juice in this game (+1.5, -160), but we have two ways to win the bet (win the game or lose by 1 run) and the percentages are largely in our favor. Take Baltimore +1.5!

Play on Game #922 Cin Reds -1.5 runs w/ Cueto (12:35 PM EST)

I like the Reds early this afternoon. We laid the -1.5 on Monday night and got the win. When the Reds win at home, they win by 2 or more runs as that makes it 11 straight now. Today they will have Cueto on the mound who has a 1.74 ERA at home this season. He has one career start vs. the Twins which resulted in a 6-0 win back in 2012. In my opinion, Cueto is a Top 5 pitcher in the NL and is hands down 3x a better pitcher than Trevor May who takes the bump for the Twins.

May has struggled on the road this season with a 6.41 ERA and is 0-2 vs. the NL with a 7.15 ERA. The Twins have lost his L4 starts now and the Reds have a lineup that can take him out of the park. May is a guy that does not strike out many and is more of a contact pitcher.

The Twins last 6 road losses have all been by more than 2 runs also. Laying the -1.5 in this game is the right thing to do. The Reds are 4-0 in the L4 interleague games as a favorite of -151 to -200 and the Twins are 0-4 in their L4 games following a win and are 1-5 in their L6 interleague games as an underdog of +151 to +200. Cueto threw 112 pitches last game so it looks like he can go deep in this one. Chapman is the closer and is throwing high heat. Look for Cueto to go 8 innings and Chapman to come in to seal the deal. I will also note that Cueto is 3-for 9 on the season batting and that always helps when the pitcher can get on base. I will also note that 2B Dozier for the Twins (.385 BA L7 days) and OF Robinson (.300 BA L7 days) are listed as questionable with an illness.  Lay the -1.5!

Play on Game #916 Cincinnati Reds -1.5 w/ Leake (7:10 PM EST)

I like the Reds to win this game comfortably. They have the better offense right now and they will have the better pitcher also right now. True enough, the Reds got swept over the weekend on the road vs. the Mets, but they play better ball at home in more of a hitter friendly park.

Leake comes into this game with a 2.45 ERA this month with a 26.6 K/BB mark. When the Reds win when Leake is on the mound, they tend to win by 2 or more runs as they have did so in his L5 team starts that have resulted in wins. Members of the Twins roster are hitting a combined 3-for-19 vs. Leake as well which is a positive note for this game.

Pelfrey takes the bump for the Twins. Current members of the Reds are hitting a combined .303 vs. him. Votto, Bruce , and Phillips are all hitting .300+ and have all taken Pelfrey yard. Of Pelfrey's 5 losses this season, 4 of them have come by 2 or more runs. Pelfrey has given up double digit hits in 2 of his L3 starts. Command has been an issue as well. He is allowing way too many guys to reach base.

The Twins are also at a disadvantage without a DH in the lineup and they also have an OF, Buxton on the DL. While Buxton might not be the best hitter, he is covered alot of space in the outfield. Now the Twins outfield is not as experienced as not as quick either. I could easily see some balls dropping in the outfield tonight.

 So the odds are in our favor tonight that if the Reds win, then they win by 2 or more runs. The Twins last 5 losses have ALL come by 2 or more runs. The Reds L10 home wins have ALL come by 2 or more runs. Lay the -1.5 with the Reds tonight. 

Play on Game #919 Oakland -1.5 runs w/ Gray (2:05 PM EST)

I like Oakland this afternoon with Gray on the mound. Let's forget about the Oakland A's for the first 2 months of the season. For the month of June they are hitting .266 as a team and are scoring over 5 runs a game. Also, run support has not been a problem when Gray is on the mound this season as he is getting 5.33 runs of support a game. I have laid the -1.5 runs with Gray before this season and took the loss, but when this guy wins he covers the -1.5 runs. In his 8 wins, ALL 8 have come by 4 or more runs. Career vs. the Rangers, Gray has a 1.68 ERA in 9 starts. His L3 wins vs. the Rangers have ALL come by 4 or more runs as well. Case Closed.

The Rangers send out Colby Lewis who has gotten rocked in 4 day starts this season (7.13 ERA). Also, opposing hitters are batting .303 vs. him on the road compared to only .203 at home.

Texas is only hitting .210 as a team over the L7 days. The A's are hitting .303. I think we see a another strong outing from Gray and this hot Oakland offense get enough runs across the plate to secure the win by 2 or more runs.

Play on Game #958 Minnesota Twins  -1.5 w/ Milone (8:10 PM EST)

I like the Twins here to win by 2 or more runs. The Twins are 16-10 on the season vs. left handed pitchers while the White Sox are only 5-8 vs. southpaws. The White Sox are ranked last in the Majors in runs scored vs. left handed pitchers. In 56 games vs. left handed pitchers, they are batting only .201 and have only scored 38 runs in 492 AB's which means they are averaging about 1 run every 13 AB's which tells me they should not score over 2-3 runs vs. Milone in this one of that much.

Danks for the White Sox has a 1.45 WHIP on the season and the Twins are hitting .342 vs. him with a .539 SLG%. He is 1-4 vs. them in his L5 starts including a 13-3 loss earlier this season. He has given up 7,7,4,6, and 4 runs in his L5 starts vs. the Twins. Danks has a 5.31 ERA on the road this season and hitters are batting .312. I will also note that the White Sox are 2-4 in his 6 road starts this season and 3 of the 4 losses have come by 2 or more runs.

Milone for the Twins takes the mound and this guy has been consistent. He has a 1.25 WHIP on the season and has a 2.37 ERA in 3 June starts this month. All 4 of his wins this season have come by 2 or more runs. He beat the White Sox earlier this season, 6-0, and he is holding current members of the White Sox to a .207 BA with a 19K/ 4 BB mark. Career vs. the White Sox, Milone has a 1.39 ERA and a 0.80 WHIP.

Looking back at the White Sox last 12 losses this season on the road as an underdog, 9 of those 12 have came by 2 or more runs and they are averaging 2.4 runs a game in these 12 losses. The Twins swept the White Sox at home earlier this season and have won 6 of their L7 at home vs. the Sox and have score 11,12,and 13 runs in 3 of those 6 wins. The Twins are the 3rd highest scoring team in the Majors when facing left handed pitchers also I will include. The Twins bullpen is 15/1 this season (94%) in saves at home this season. So I expect the offense to touch up Danks, for Milone to be solid, and for the bullpen to seal the deal. Lay the -1.5 runs.

Play on Game #952 Chi Cubs Run Line +1.5 (8:05 PM EST)

I think the Cubs +1.5 are the correct play here. We have two ways to win the bet, and at even $$, that's a good proposition. We can either win the game straight up or lose the game by one run. The Dodgers are only 12 -18 on the road this season and the Cubs have a 18-13 record at home. I will also note that the Dodgers are only 3-7 this season vs. left handed pitchers and the Cubs are 5-4 vs. lefties.

The Dodgers will have Kershaw on the mound who is -$223 this season if you were to bet on him every game. He has a 4.27 ERA on the road with a 3-4 record in those 7 starts. I will also note that 3 of Kershaw's losses this season have come when matched against left handed pitchers.

The Cubs will have Wada on the mound who has a 3.21 ERA in 3 home starts this season and is holding hitters to a .196 BA at Wrigley Field. He is best vs. right handed hitters and the Dodgers lineup is mostly right handed hitters. In 2 starts vs. the Dodgers last season, Wada had 11K's and 3 BB's in 10.2 IP while giving up 3 ER.

I will also note that the Cubs are hitting .277 on the season vs. left handed pitchers while the Dodgers are hitting .244 vs. lefties. I will also note that the Cubs have the fresher bullpen after Arrieta tossed a CG yesterday. The Dodgers bullpen has already blown 39% of their save opportunities this season and I just think taking the +1.5 runs here is the value play. The wind is expected to be blowing out at 20 MPH which means the ball might have a harder time staying in the park and I think this decreases the value on a pitcher like Kershaw. 

Play on Game #924 Oakland A's -1.5 Run Line w/ Gray (10:05 PM EST)

I want to lay the 1.5 runs here tonight. I know Texas has been a great play as a road dog as of late, but they have not fared well vs. the AL's ERA leader, Sonny Gray. Gray has a 1.65 ERA on the season and has been dominant. Gray has faced the Rangers twice this season and the A's won 7-1 and 8-0. Gray has only allowed 3 hits in 14.2 IP vs. the Rangers this season. Gray is 6-2 career vs. the Rangers in 8 starts vs. the Rangers. The 6 wins have ALL come by 2 or more runs with an average score of 5-1. Current members of the Rangers are hitting a combined .174 vs. Gray with a .208 SLG%. Beltre and Hamilton are on the DL for Texas and Hamilton is one of the few guys that had success vs. Gray in the past as he is 3-for-8 with a homerun off Gray. That is the only homerun that Gray has allowed in 178 AB's vs. the Rangers lineup. So with Hamilton out of the lineup, I think we have some added value here.

The A's have won 7 of Sonny Gray's team starts this season. ALL 7 wins have come by 2 or more runs and that is another reason why I want to lay the -1.5 runs tonight. Gray is getting an average of 7 runs of support in these wins and I think there is a good chance we see more of the same here tonight.

Texas will have Martinez on the rubber who gave up 5 runs off 7 hits vs. Oakland earlier this season. In 2 of his 5 career starts vs. Oakland, he has given up 4 or more runs. In 5 starts vs. the A's, he has a 12K/ 8 BB mark which is not very impressive. Martinez is coming off his shortest start of the season only going 3.1 IP as he gave up 7 runs vs. the White Sox last week. He has now allowed more fly balls to ground balls in 5 straight starts which is also a red flag (60/32). Also, opponents are hitting .292 vs. him in 7 night time starts and righties are hitting .313 vs. him on the season and the A's should have 6 right handed hitters in the lineup tonight. Looking at Martinez stats from last season, he has never been a strikeout pitcher and he is more of a fly ball pitcher. He has been getting lucky as he is holding opponents to a .167 with RISP this season and 0.87 with RISP w/ 2 outs. It's hard to keep holding guys on base, especially when you don't strike guys out and pitch for contact. Those balls when eventually turn into base hits and I would not be surprised if tonight is the night.

Josh Reddick for the A's who is 6-for-12 with 2 HR's and 8 RBI's vs. the Rangers this season, is 5-for-9 vs. Martinez career with a .889 SLG%. Reddick is hitting .373 at home this season and I think he could be the 'X' factor in this game.

Right now I'm seeing the A's anywhere from a +110 to a +130 on the run line here. I would not be surprised to see some money come in on Texas tonight, so you can be patient in this game before placing your wager to get the best number possible. Take Oakland -1.5.

Play on Game #517 Houston Rockets +10.5 (9:00 PM EST)

To me, this is a simple pick. The Rockets are 3-1 ATS vs. the Warriors in this series. They had a shot at winning Game 2 @ Golden State and really were in Game 1 the majority of the game without Dwight Howard. Let's forget about Game 3 as that was a tough one for the Rockets after blowing their chance to win Game 2. The Rockets were in this same situation vs. the Clippers. They know how to play when their backs are against the wall as they are now the first team to win four straight postseason games when facing elimination since the 2006 Suns. Harden will be playing with confidence tonight after pouring in 33 points in the 2nd half on Monday.  I look at the box score and the Warriors did not play bad. They actually made 20 3 pointers and still lost. I say this because I don't think they can shoot 44% again from the 3 point line and make 20 threes. This is the NBA and the pressure is on the Warriors. The Rockets were in this same position vs. the Clippers and I think they can handle the pressure.

Key Trends:

The Rockets are 10-1 ATS in their L11 games following a SU win of more than 10 points.

The Warriors are 2-8 ATS in their L10 home games.

Play on the Rockets +5

Play on the Atlanta Hawks +9.5

Play on the Houston Rockets +1.5

Play on Game #902 Washington Nationals (-1.5)  w/ Scherzer

I'm going to lay the -1.5 runs with the Nationals who are one the hottest teams in the Majors right now and will have their ace on the mound tonight. Scherzer is a PERFECT 10-0 SU his last 10 home starts and has won ALL 10 by 2 or more runs. This is a pitching rematch from earlier in the season when Scherzer and the Nationals won by a score of 7-2. Sullivan for the Phillies is a guy that does not impress me as he has yet to throw over 91 pitches in a game. He does not strike out very many hitters and is one road starts this season was the one I mentioned above vs. the Nationals when he took the loss, 7-2. The Phillies are 6-33 in their L39 games as an underdog of +201 or greater. Looking at their last 7 losses as un underdog of +201 or greater, they have ALL come by more than 2 runs with an average score of 7-3. I think we see another final score in the 7-2 range tonight. The Nationals have also had the benefit of getting a days rest while the Phillies are traveling to the East coast after playing a 4 game road set out West vs. the Rockies. 

Play on Game #504 Atlanta Hawks (8:30 PM EST)

I like the Hawks to win Game 1 tonight. The Hawks took 3 of 4 games from the Cavs in the regular season. I think the Hawks have a big advantage at the point guard position with Teague and Schroeder going against Kyrie Irving who is not 100% and Delladova who is not that quick on his feet. I think the Hawks will be able to drive and penetrate the lane and run their offense which consist of making 3 pointers. I think the Cavs defense will struggle in this series to rotate as the Hawks do an excellent job of finding the open man or hitting the cutter (Millsap and Horford).

I think it needs to be noted that Kevin Love is out and Kyrie is not 100%.  Love averaged 11.8 ppg and 7.8 rpg vs. the Hawks regular season while Kyrie averaged 21 ppg on 49% shooting. While the Cavs are still winning through these injuries, this is the Conference Finals and the Hawks have had the Cavs number this season. I think that Horford and Millsap can draw Mosgov and Thompson out of the lane and away from the basket. I also think that Korver is due for a break out game and series for that matter.

I know the Cavs have Lebron James; well we all know that but that doesn't mean they are going to win, especially when his supporting cast is not healthy. I will also note that the Hawks DeMarre Carroll held James to 3-for-15 shooting and 5 turnovers as the main defender during the regular season. I will also note that the Hawks held James to 31.2% shooting from the floor in isolation situations.

The Hawks went 4-1 SU and ATS this season at home as a favorite of -1 to -3.5. For the Cavs, they were 0-5 SU and ATS this season as a road dog of +1 - +3.5 before beating the Bulls in Game 6. I like for this trend to continue in Game 1 tonight. Let's lay the -1 with Atlanta.

I will also note that Atlanta is +185 to win the series. I think this is a great bet. The Hawks have home court advantage so if they protect their home court, then they win this series. They did beat Cleveland @ Cleveland also this season (127-98), so they know they can win on the road also. I think the fact that the Cavs are not 100%, also gives us value in this play. Bonus: Take Atlanta to win the series (+185)

Play on Game #501 Houston Rockets +10.5 (9:00 PM EST)

I like Houston with the points here in Game 1. I think this line is a bit inflated to what it should be and I think that the Rockets are in a good spot to get us the cash.

Houston went 0-4 SU and ATS during the regular season vs. the Warriors which is in-part to why this line is so high. Both regular season meetings played @ Golden State the line was -8 and -9, so we are seeing a 1.5-2.5 increase for this game. The Rockets lost both of those games 12 and 13 points, so they were close to covering the spread. In one of those games, the Rockets actually had a 3 point lead heading into the 4th quarter and Dwight Howard did not play in that game. The other loss was a close game except for the 2nd quarter when Houston laid an egg scoring only 13 points.

I think for this game, the Rockets are playing with a newfound confidence after coming back from down 3-1 vs. the Clippers. Dwight Howard is playing at a high level and Harden is one of the Top5 players in the NBA.  I don't think that Howard was 100% during the regular season and I think he has an edge in this series and the Warriors really don't have anyone that can match up with him. I also think that Howard has a big rebounding edge in this series.

While Curry is going to get his, the Rockets must just try to contain him. They do have length with Brewer and Ariza who can be a bit disruptive and I think the Rockets play this Game 1 with a chip on their shoulder. Houston is a much better 3 point shooting team than Memphis, and I think that is the difference in this game. Where Golden State could sag on defense vs. Memphis and focus and Randolph and Gasol, they cannot do this vs. Houston. The Rockets are going to play their style of ball which is get out in transition, shoot 3's ,and let Howard crash the glass.

I will also note this is a different lineup that the Rockets have on the court tonight than what Golden State had been seeing during the regular season. J. Smith is playing at a high level currently and T. Jones will be getting plenty of burn. Also Prignoni was a solid contribution off the bench in Game 7 last series. J. Terry is a veteran who has a ring with Dallas and he can bring leadership to the team.

Golden State won its last 3 games vs. Memphis by 13,17, and 20 points. In the NBA, it is hard to maintain such a dominance, especially when living on the 3 pointer. I'm not saying they will be rusty for this game, but I do think that Houston is the team that will be playing with more confidence and will be go toe-to-toe with the Rockets.

Nobody is giving Houston a chance to win this series and I think they know that as well and will be playing with a chip on their shoulder. This is the playoffs and it's a different game than the regular season. If the Warriors think they are just going to keep running over the Rockets, they have another thing coming as the Rockets have a revamped lineup and are playing at a high level. Let's take the double digits tonight with Houston.

Take the Houston Rockets 

Play on Game #748 Memphis Grizzlies +5 (9:35 PM EST)

I like Memphis here in this spot for Game 6. I know there is a lot of talk about Tony Allen's status, but I think the Grizzlies who will be playing at home can use their veteran leadership from Conley, Z-Bo, and Gasol, to force a Game 7 regardless of Tony Allen.  I really want to pull the trigger on the money line in this game, but I think the +5 points we are getting at home is the much safer play.

Golden State is now coming off consecutive blowout wins over Memphis. This is the playoffs and changes are made every game. It is just hard to keep blowing teams out. Look at the Houston Rockets how they responded after getting blown out in B2B games. They won game 5 at home as a 3 point dog then won Game 6 and now are going back home for Game 7.

Memphis is 4-0 SU and ATS in their last 4 games at home of BB losses while Golden State is 1-8 SU on the road in the playoffs off a win of more than 10 points. Homedogs have been a great play in the playoffs over the years after getting blown out in consecutive games as well. I will also note that NBA homedogs of 8 or less points off B2B losses of 17+ points are 8-0 ATS in the last 8 times when I plugged this into the database.

The Grizzlies have won 2 games in this series so it's not like they are out of it yet. I think they can look back in these 2 wins and draw up a game plan for this game. The reason the Warriors have won the last 2 games is simple. They have been making their 3 pointers. Can they shoot lights out again on the road? That's a lot to ask especially in a closeout game from a team that has not been in this situation yet. The Grizzlies will have the home crowd to their advantage tonight and I think that we will see a physical game from Memphis. Look for them to try to get to the foul line more and draw fouls. Look for them to be more aggressive on Curry and Thompson who combined for 9-for-17 from the 3 point line in the last game. Look for Jeff Green and Vince Carter to step it up and make some big shots as well.

Personally, I'm doubling up on tonight's game with a 10% wager as I usually advise sticking with a 5% wager. Let's get this $$ tonight with the Memphis Grizzlies.

Play on Game #962 Oakland A's -1.5 w/ Gray (3:35 PM EST)

I want to lay the -1.5 with Oakland this afternoon as they will have their ace on the rubber who is 4-0 on the season with a 1.65 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and a 25K/ 6 BB mark. His 4 wins this season have all come by more than 2 runs with an average score of 7-1. In 2 day starts, Gray has only given up 2 ER in 14 IP and opposing hitters are hitting only .160 vs. him in day games. The A's won 17 of his team start's last season and 14 of those wins came by 2 or more runs. So since last season, 86% of Gray's wins in team starts have come by more than 2 runs.

The Red Sox will have Miley on the rubber who has a 6.91 ERA on the season. He only has 10K's on the season to go with 11 BB's. All 4 of his losses this season have come by 2 or more runs with an average score of 9-3.

The Red Sox are only hitting .188 from the plate over the last 7 days. They have no speed on the bases either (only 1 SB in the last 7 days), and their pinch hitters are 1-for17 in this time frame.

I think with last night's win that Oakland is primed for a run and today is a good way to start it with a dependable guy like Gray. Oakland is 15-5 SU in their last 20 home games vs. the AL East, with 10 (66%) of those wins coming by 2 or more runs.  The Red Sox are 11-9 in their last 20 road games vs. the AL West. Of those 9 losses, 5 of them (55%) have come by 2 or more runs.

I like our percentages in this game to cover the -1.5. Oakland is hitting .274 at home on the season (#5 in the AL). The Red Sox only have a .347 SLG% on the road, and rank near the bottom of the AL in OPS. I think we see Oakland put up enough runs for Gray to cruise in this one. Look for a final score in the 6-2 range. 

Play on Game #736 Houston Rockets +2.5 (9:35 PM EST)

I have died with Houston in 3 games this series. Too make it worse, they are 0-4 ATS in this series and are facing a lot of adversity in this game down 3-1. The Rockets have now gotten blow out in 2 straight games. This is surprising to me as the Rockets were one of the best teams in the regular season bouncing back off of a loss, especially a double digit loss.

What I saw in Game 4 was that Howard picked up 2 fouls early, so McHale called for the Hack-A-Jordan, and it did not work. The Rockets are a team that like to get out in transition. Whether Jordan missed or not, it gave the Clippers a chance to get back on defense. I think Game 5 the Rockets will play their game, forget about the Hack-A-Jordan, and get Harden back on the ball. 

Play on Game #734 Cleveland Cavs -5.5 (7:00 PM EST)

I like the Cavs to pull away and get the cover tonight. I think that they have big momentum heading into this game after Lebron hit the game winner in Chicago to tie the series up 2-2 and now to go back home to Cleveland. 

I think there is plenty of value with the Cavs tonight. In Game 1, Cleveland was without JR Smith who is a guy that is underrated. This guy was 6th man of the year just two years ago and he is fearless. Smith missed the first 2 games of the series and responded with 7-for-14 from the 3 point line in Games 3 and 4 in Chicago. He is a guy that can take the pressure off of Lebron and help out with scoring. I know Kyrie has struggled in this series in Chicago, but remember he scored 31 and 20 in Games 1 and 2 in Cleveland. While Kyrie might not be 100%, he still knows how to be effective. 

Cleveland won on Sunday with Lebron going 10-for-13, Irving 2-for10, and Shumpert 1-for-8...and they still won. Mozgov is now the best big man on the court with Gasol's injury which is huge and also for the Bulls, Taj Gibson is battling an injury of his own. While Noah is the Bulls team spirit, he still can't make a layup. 

Again, I think that Lebron's game winner in Game 4 was huge and will carry the Cavs in this game as they are back home. The loss of Gasol is huge for the Bulls. They tend to go on too many scoring droughts and that will hurt them here. Rose and Butler are really the only 2 guys that can create on their own, Dunleavy is not effective because the Cavs can sag off of Noah and don't have to worry about Gasol down low. Lay the points with the Cavs at home in Game 5. 

Play on Game #732 Memphis Grizzlies +4.5 (9:35 PM EST)

I like Memphis with the +4.5 tonight. I think Golden State is in a lot of trouble in this series. Curry is struggling, Draymond Green is struggling, and the Warriors have not had to face this adversity yet in the season. Speight's is also out for the Warriors and I think this is also a factor. Speight's is a physical player and I think David Lee cannot replace his toughness. I will also note that Speight's played for the Grizzlies before going to Golden State, and I think that's important to note as he was holding his own on the defensive side vs. Randolph and Gasol.

The Grizzlies are now 5-0 with Conley in the lineup. Allen is playing with a high intensity on defense. Z-Bo and Gasol are doing what they always do. The Grizzlies have held the Warriors to 101, 89, and 90 points in the series. The Grizzlies bench has been more productive as well.

We are getting a solid defensive team at home with +4.5 points that has proven they can control the tempo vs. the Warriors. They will have the home crowd behind him. The Warriors are in a tough spot tonight. If they do win, I can't see them winning by more than a basket. I think this is a tight game throughout and we will cash the spread with ease. Let's take the homedog this Monday night and get the $$!

Play on Game #851 Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) w/ Cole (7:05 PM EST)

I want to lay the -1.5 tonight with Cole on the rubber. While the Pirates are 0-2 this season vs. the Reds when Cole is on the mound, they are 4-0 vs. everybody else in Coles starts. Cole has a 2.27 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP on the season. He almost has a 2:1 groundball:flyball ratio on the season as well. He has not allowed a homerun in these 4 starts I'm talking about and he should have an easy time vs. the Phillies who have only hit 3 homeruns in the last 7 days.

Williams takes the mound for the Phillies and this guy is a disaster. He has a 1.61 WHIP on the season, a 5.18 ERA, and other than his 1st start of the season vs. the Nationals, he has gotten touched up in his last 5 starts. He has almost a 2:1 flyball/groundball ratio and only has 15 K's in 23.2 IP. He is 1-4 career vs. the Pirates and 3 of the 4 losses have come by 3 or more runs. McCutcheon is 3-for-6 career vs. Williams with a pair of homeruns.

So from a pitching perspective, we have the much better pitcher in this game, no question about it. Cole is a Top 10 pitcher in the NL. He is solid vs. both righties and lefties and ranks among the NL Top 10 in K's per 9 innings pitched.

Pittsburgh has taken 14 of the last 21 vs. the Phillies and are 6-1 in their last vs. the Phillies when playing @ Philly. Looking at their last 7 wins vs. the Phillies overall, 6 of those 7 wins have come by 2 or more runs.

After taking the last 2 games vs. the Cardinals over the weekend, I think the Pirates are poised to go on a run. I like them here tonight to win comfortably. Lay the -1.5 w/ Cole on the rubber. 

Play on Game #727 Houston Rockets +7.5 (9:30 PM EST)

The Clippers have looked like the best team now with a 2-1 series lead. They couldn't miss from the floor the other night. Redick had 31 points on 11-for-14 from the floor and Rivers had 25 points on 10-for-13 from the floor. I can almost guarantee you that they don't put up those numbers in this game. At halftime, it was a 7 point game before the Clippers put up 35 in the 3rd quarter.

The Clippers shot 55.4% from the floor and 82.6% from the line. It will be hard for them to duplicate this performance and with the Rockets back against the wall, I have to expect for them to leave it all on the court tonight. The Rockets are fortunate to be only down 2-1. They were fortunate to win Game 2 in a foul filled game.

So why are we taking Houston in this Game 4? Well, for starters I think they know if they win this game, then the series is tied 2-2 and they will be going back to home for Game 5 and can take a 3-2 lead. I think they can use this psychology and hopefully as momentum. I think it's also safe to say that the Rockets have not played their best game yet, and I think the Clippers are coming off their best game, so there is a good probability that we see a reversal here.

From a value standpoint, there is plenty here getting 7.5 points with a team that has won 61 games on the season. They have only been an underdog of more than 6.5 points only 3 times all season long. The Rockets are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. I will also note that even after Friday night's cover, the Clippers are still only 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games.

I think we see the Rockets play their best game of the series. Let's take all the points we can get here.   

Play on Game #724 Memphis Grizzlies +4.5 (8:05 PM EST)

I like the Grizzlies +4.5 on Saturday night. The line opened at +3.5 and has been bet up to +4.5. Remember in Game 3 when Golden State played their first road game @ New Orleans? They were getting beat the whole game badly, ended up coming back in the 4th and sent the game into overtime, but still did not cover. The line for that game was New Orleans +5.5 and the Grizzlies are getting one point less here. I think this line is too high, especially with Conley back in the lineup as Memphis is 4-0 in the playoffs with Conley. He can really guide his team, control the tempo, and hit outside shots. Tony Allen is playing with a world of confidence also and is disruptive on the defensive side of things. It's not often you will find Memphis as a homedog, and they will be playing with plenty of confidence tonight. All the pressure is on Golden State as the series is tied 1-1.

I'm still not sold on the Warriors and feel like Memphis has that playoff intensity as they will bring the pressure behind a veteran squad that has been there, done that, and have been playing together forever. Golden State counts on making three pointers as 31% of their shots made come from three pointers. If they aren't hitting, then they are in trouble. We know what we are going to get from Memphis. We are going to get a team that will not force things. They have 2 dominant big men in Z-Bo and Gasol. Conley looked like a beast and I look for him to have even a bigger game now that he is used to wearing that face mask and he knows if he gets hit in the face, he will be alright. He found that out in Game 1 after Draymond Green caught him in the face.

I like Memphis in this series, and I like them tonight. The public is in love with Golden State. They say they 'Must Win' this game. Ohhhh, no they don't. Nothing is a must and I want to take the home team, getting points, playing with confidence and veteran leadership. 

Play on Game #719 Houston Rockets +4.5 (10:35 PM EST)

I like Houston tonight. They barely missed the cover on Wednesday night even after still not playing to their full potential. What I did like was that the Rockets best two players, Harden and Howard played a lot better. Harden was more assertive and Howard was balling on offense and defense. I also like how the Rockets started to double team Griffin in the 2nd half and I think they continue tonight with some more double teams to slow Griffin down.

For the Clippers, Chris Paul's status is still in doubt. If he plays, will he be 100%?? If he doesn't play, then the Rocket's should run away with the game. Either way, the Rockets cover this spread. While the Clippers are 6-3 SU in their last 9 home games, they are only 1-8 ATS during this time. The Rockets are 24-7 ATS in their last 31 games following an ATS loss and they are 16-7 ATS their last 23 meetings in LA.

I really think Houston gives the Clippers a taste of their own medicine tonight and steal this game to take the 2-1 lead in the series. If they don't win though, I have to think they still cover this spread. Take the Rockets tonight +4 or +4.5.

Play on Game #718 Chicago Bulls -1.5 (8:05 PM EST)

Can Lebron go down 2-1 in the series? My answer is yes. The Bulls are 7-3 ATS this season as a 1-2.5 point favorite while the Cavs are 0-3 ATS as a dog of 1-2.5 points. The Bulls are 4-0 SU and ATS their last 4 home games when a 1-3 point home favorite with an average score of 110-97. The Cavs are 0-3 SU and ATS this season as a road dog of 1-3 points with an average score of 105-101.

I think what is important is that Love is out for the Cavs. This is their best 3 point shooter. I don't think Cleveland will get off to such a fast start on the road tonight as they did at home on Wednesday. JR Smith will be back for this game, but Smith can just as easily shoot the Cavs out the game. I will also note that Shumpert is questionable for this game and if Shumpert does not play, then that's an added bonus for us. The Bulls have the better defense and the better bench and I think that both of these factors give us a big edge tonight.

Look for Rose to get to the rack, draw fouls, and get to the line. Look for Gasol to have a bounceback game as well. Also, look for Brooks off the bench to add a spark. I like the Bulls to go up 2-1 in this series. They are playing at home, the trends are on our side, and they are the healthier team currently. Lay it with the Bulls.

Play on Game #716 Houston Rockets -7 (9:35 PM EST)

I like the Rockets to bounce back tonight and pull away with a double digit victory. Houston played terrible the other night, they couldn't have played much worse. The Rockets had 24 turnovers and the Clippers scored 34 points off the turnovers. And the Clippers did so without their best player on the court in Chris Paul. It was embarrassing to watch and I have to think with them playing at home and in a MUST WIN scenario, they regroup and play with a more inspired effort. The Rockets will show tonight that they belong in this series, and they will do so with Chris Paul's status in doubt again for this game. It's said there is a 50/50 chance Paul will play. Personally, since the Clippers stole the 1st game, I think they will sit Paul in this game and be safe until they get back home for game 3. The line is at -7 which is without Paul. If Paul plays, then the line will go down to -3 or -3.5. Regardless, I like the Rockets to win and cover this game.

The Rockets have been good in the past bouncing back off losses as they are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a double -digit loss at home and are 24-6 ATS in their last 30 games following an ATS loss, and are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. The Clippers are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a SU win. The Rockets won ALL 3 home games vs. Dallas in the 1st round by 9,10, and 12 points.

The Clippers scored 71 points in the 2nd half in Game 1. That will not happen tonight. Look for the Rockets to be the much more inspired team. I look for Harden to have a big game and for him to get Jones and Smith more involved. Rockets by 13.

Play on Game #711 Memphis Grizzlies +10.5 (10:35 PM EST)

I died with Memphis on Sunday in Game 1, but I want to go back with them again tonight. The biggest difference in the game was the fact that Memphis could not make a 3 pointer. The held Golden State to only 101 points which should have been good enough for them to get the cover, but Memphis only scored 34 points in the 2nd half. I have to think they score more in this game. Memphis will need to get improved point production for the point guard position. They will need to play more at their pace, which I think they can do also. Carter and Calathes went 1-for-11 from the floor. I think they step up and make shots and Calathes plays more like the point guard they need him to me. On a good note, Conley looks like he is going to try and give it a go tonight and that is a big bonus for us if he does play. Conley really can give the Grizzlies a good temp to their offense, and

Memphis is a team that tends to bounce back well off a loss, as they are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU loss. Golden State is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following a SU win. So let's be patient and see where the line settles. I know the majority of the public will be betting Golden State so a move in the line would not surprise me. Memphis has plenty of playoff experience and I just don't see them getting run out the gym again.

Play on Game # Washington Nationals -1.5 (+130) w/ Strasburg (7:00 PM EST)

I like Washington tonight with Strasburg on the mound to win this game by 2 or more runs. After a slow start last outing, Strasburg appeared to find his groove and I think that he is about to get on a roll. I think that this price we are paying is a bargain honestly as Strasburg will be facing Mat Latos who has a 1.76 WHIP on the season, hasn't throw over 88 pitches in a start, and has a 2:1 flyball/groundball ratio. Career vs. the Nationals, Latos has a 23K/ 19 BB mark and that is a red flag right there also.

The Marlins swept Washington 2 weeks ago and I know the Nationals want to return the favor badly. Strasburg got roughed up in that start, but he still has a 9-6 career record vs. the Marlins with a 1.14 WHIP and the Nationals are 5-0 his last 5 home starts vs. the Marlins. In his 2 wins this season, they have been by 3 and 6 runs.

Washington is hitting .288 over the last 7 games and leading the NL with 46 runs scored in that time frame winning 6 of their last 7. Let's lay the chalk tonight with Washington. I think it's important to note that when Strasburg is a -150 to a -250 home favorite, 10 of his 11 team's wins have come by 3 or more runs with an average margin of victory of 5.5 runs dating back to April 2014. This tells me that when they win, they win by 2 or more runs. So that's why I want to lay the -1.5 tonight and stay away from the money line. 

Play on Game #919 Texas Rangers +1.5 (-120) w/ Detwiler (8:10 PM EST)

Play on Game #703 Chicago Bulls +4.5 (7:05 PM EST)

I like the Bulls with the points in this Game 1 matchup. For the Cavs, Kevin Love and JR Smith are out for this game and I think that this is huge for them. I also think the Cavs might be a bit rusty after not playing in 8 days. Smith and Love were combining for 24 ppg/ 10 rpg. Love in my opinion was the Cavs best three point shooter and Smith is a guy that can be instant offense. Shumpert is not known as much for his offense and I think the defensive minded Bulls will be able to make some stops and I think they have a good chance of stealing this game here. The Bulls are as healthy as they have been all year. D. Rose is looking good and he is well rested.

I'm not going to go in-depth on this pick. I think the loss of Love and Smith and the fact that the Cavs haven't played in 8 days is enough for us to take the underdog in this game. The underdog is 4-1 ATS the last 5 meetings and the Bulls are 12-4 ATS their last 16 meetings vs. the Cavs. Take the Bulls. 

Play on Game #701 Memphis Grizzlies (3:35 PM EST)

I like Memphis to cover this spread in Game 1. For starters, I think the line is a bit low as the Warriors were roughly a 12 point home favorite vs. the Pelicans in the opening round and now they are only giving up 2 fewer points to a much better Grizzly team.

These teams played 3 times in the regular season with Golden State going 2-1 SU but Memphis going 2-1 ATS. The one home meeting was when Golden State was a 8 point favorite and Memphis covered, losing 111-107. Conley did not play in that game and now he is out with an injury. That really does not concern me though as Memphis showed me that they can play without Conley vs. Portland as Calathes is capable of running the point along with Udrih.

I also think the points are the play in this game because Memphis does play defense and I think the 10 points are a whole lot in a game like this that can boil down to defense. I also will note the fact that Memphis does not get this many points often. During the regular season, the Clippers gave them 9.5 points and they only lost by 8. That was the biggest spread of the season for Memphis.

I like Calathes as a defender and at 6'6" and with long arms, he can be disruptive. I think that he can help slow down Curry and Thompson. Golden State is now 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall while the Grizzlies are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall. We saw New Orleans put up a fight in the first 2 games and I think Memphis will do the same. Take Memphis this Sunday. 

Play on Game #538 Brooklyn Nets +4 (8:05 PM EST)

I like the Nets getting the points here at home. The Nets are 4-1 ATS in this series and just barely missed the cover in Game 5 or they would be a perfect 5-0 ATS in the series. They beat Atlanta SU in Game 3 and Game 4 at home. All the pressure is on the Hawks for this game as they try to eliminate the Nets. I think that Brooklyn has done a good job of matching up with Atlanta and they have been getting better bench production with Jack and Anderson off the bench. Deron Williams only scored 5 points last game and I have to think he puts up better numbers on Friday night. Also, Joe Johnson hates the Hawks and you can be assured he will be bringing everything he has to the game as well. I think that Atlanta drew a tough matchup in this series and the Nets have done everything they need to do to compete vs. the Hawks. They are playing at home tonight and will leave it all on the court. The Hawks are feeling the pressure, but they know if they win this game then they can go back home for Game 7. This is a MUST WIN for Brooklyn if they want to stay alive. We are getting 4 points and the Nets are now 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 home games. The Hawks are now 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall. I think the linesmakers are showing them too much respect with the 4 points tonight. Let's take Brooklyn at home as they bring their 'A' game and I would not be surprised to see them pull the SU win and force a Game 7.

Play on Game #976 Kansas City Royals w/ Young (8:10 PM EST)

Play on Game #535 LA Clippers +5.5 (10:30 PM EST)

I like the Clippers tonight with the points. I said all along this series will go 7 games, and with the Clippers down 3-2, I still think the same thing. The road team is now 3-1 SU in this series. The Clippers did beat the Spurs 114-105 in San Antonio in Game 4. Two of the Clipper's three losses in this series have both come by 4 points which would be enough to cover this spread tonight.

I think the Clippers have a few things in their favor tonight. I think the refs might make a few makeup calls for this game after the bad officiating in Game5. I also think that Doc Rivers will make the necessary changes to get his bench more production. I'm not positive, but I think he might give Spencer Hawes more playing time as Hawes can shoot the ball, where Jordan cannot shoot. I also look at the Clippers going 1-for-13 from the 3 point line in Game 5 while the Spurs shot 48% from the 3 point line and the Clippers still almost won the game. Jordan is just giving up free points on the free throw line. Regardless, I like the Clippers in this game, but I really think Doc makes the changes to get Hawes more involved in this one. The Clippers only scored 15 points off the bench last game. Crawford was 0-for-6 from the 3 point line. Look for him to be more productive as well.

Before the Playoffs, the Clippers and the Spurs were the 2 hottest teams in the NBA and I just can't see the Clippers getting run out the gym in this elimination game. The Clippers are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 road games and the underdog is 13-4 ATS the last 17 meetings. Take the Clippers on Thursday night.

Play on Game #514 Portland Trailblazers -3 (10:35 PM EST)

I have to think that Portland comes away with the win and the cover tonight to save their face and extend this series to at least 5 games. Portland has vowed to show some heart and have some pride for this game. Portland does some key edges for this game. 1) Memphis starting point guard Mike Conley is injured and will not play. I think this is huge as Conley has had his way with Lilliard in this first 3 games and now I'm looking for Lilliard to have his best game of the series. 2) Portland actually played a good game in game 3. Batum looked good, Lilliard was shooting the ball good, they just let Memphis get to the foul line 43 times and the Grizzlies shot 90.7% from the foul line. This was really the difference in the game. 3) Portland was down 3-0 last year to the Spurs and won Game 4 to avoid the sweep, before eventually falling in 5 games. 4). Afflalo played 20+ minutes in Game 3 and I think he will give the team an added boost tonight. Afflalo fouled in last game so he was not very effective and I think he plays a better game.

Let's lay the 3 points tonight with Portland. I know they have been struggling, but I really feel like they get the job done here tonight, especially with Conley being injured. 

Play on Game #502 Boston Celtics +7.5 (1:00 PM EST)

I like Boston getting all these points on Sunday afternoon. The linesmakers have raised the line 2.5 points from Game 3 when the Celtics were getting 5 points. This was really an even game if you take away the 1st quarter when the Cavs had a 6 point lead. The Celtics played the Cavs to an even 47-47 in the 2nd half. I am a believer that it is HARD to beat a team 4 straight times. Do sweeps happen? Well, of course, but for the Celtics to be getting this many points, I have to take them. Boston is a young team that really has no superstars. That's one reason I like them. Because they play good team ball and they know if they lose this one, then it's over with. I also like Boston's HC Brad Stephens who has a way of getting the most out of his players.

This will be the 8th matchup today between these two teams so the Celtics are plenty of familiar with the Cavs. Through the first 7 games, the Celtics are 4-3 ATS and 3-4 SU. Looking how the Celtics ended the season, they went 6-0 SU down the stretch so I know they are capable of regrouping for this game. Sullinger is back getting minutes and so is Isaiah Thomas.

Looking at the Cav's defense, they give up 101 ppg on the road on 47.2% shooting. The Celtics take care of the ball at home only turning it over 12 times a game. I think Cleveland comes into this game a little over confident and the Celtics give them a surprise. Even if they can't hang on for the win, 7.5 points is a whole lot to be giving a team at home in the Playoffs.

Boston enters this game barking as an underdog of 6-9.5 on the season going 20-6 ATS (77%) while the Cavs are basically a 50/50 proposition when laying more than 6 points on the road.

In closing, I just feel that the Celtics come to play ball on Sunday. I think Thomas and Sullinger contribute more and I just can't see the Cavs hitting 12 three pointers this game. All the pressure is on Cleveland to close the series out. Let's look for Boston to get the cover here. 

Play on Game #746 Brooklyn Nets +2.5 (3:00 PM EST)

I think this is a good spot to take Brooklyn in the series. They are down 2-0 and have had 2 days to get some rest and I look for them to give a solid effort at home tonight. Brooklyn finished the season strong going 9-4 SU. For whatever reason, they have lost to Atlanta now 5 straight times this season, including the playoffs.

This is the NBA and I feel it is hard to just keep on beating a team over and over. Sure, Atlanta might have an advantage over them, but I also think that Brooklyn is tired of losing to them.  The Nets are 2-0 ATS in the series so far. They have played the Hawks tough on the road and basically the only difference in the games have been that the Nets have turned the ball over too much and the Hawks have hit more 3 pointers.

So those two things will need to change on Saturday. Brooklyn will need to get a hand in Korver's face and take care of the ball. They have plenty of experience with Williams and Johnson in the backcourt and Lopez down low. Jarrett Jack is instant offense off the bench as well.

The Hawks are clearly not as good on the road as at home. They finished the season going 1-4 SU on the road. The lone win was vs. Brooklyn, but they only won by 3 points, 114-11. Alan Anderson did not play in that game and after a strong game in Game 2 of the Playoffs, I think he might be the guy to give the Nets what they need today.

Last year, the Nets were down 2-0 vs. Miami, and won Game 3 at home as a 1 point dog, 104-90. I look for another performance like that this Saturday. The Nets are 4-0 ATS their last 4 games playing on 2 days rest. The Hawks are now 2-8 ATS their last 10 games vs. the NBA Atlantic. Look for the Nets to give the cover on Saturday.  

Play on Game #741 Toronto Raptors +4 (8:05 PM EST)

I have taken the Wizards in Game 1 and 2 and we have covered both games. I have a good feel on this series and think this is a game where the Raptors regroup and get the cover. I'm really looking for them to get the SU win, but all we need is a cover. The public is 'heavy' on the Wizards tonight after seeing them win the first 2 games, but I think Toronto can make some changes, get Lowry more involved, and get far better production from their starters. Toronto held their own on the road this season. They have beaten some good teams on the road and have some very close road losses. They beat the Wizards earlier this season in Washington, 120-116. They also beat the Hawks and the Nets on the road this season. They are actually 13-7 SU their last 20 road games. 4 of those 7 losses have come by 5 points or less. As an underdog of 3.5 -6.5 points, they 5-1 ATS their last 6 tries on the road vs. the Eastern Conference. The Wizards have not been a good covering team at home this year and they are a mind-boggling 4-23-2 ATS (14%) in their last 29 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Let's take Toronto with the points tonight to get us the $$.

Play on: Game #738 New Orleans Pelicans +5 (9:35 PM EST)

I like New Orleans at home tonight. The Pelicans are down 2-0 and obviously they are in need of a win here. Looking at the first two games of the series, the Pelicans got down in the 1st Qtr of Game 1, but then played an even game the rest of the way. In Game 2, they jumped out to an early lead, then just couldn't hold off the home team of Golden State who had the crowd behind them. I expect the home crowd to be behind New Orleans tonight and for the jitters to be gone as well.

This New Orleans teams has been a great homedog all season long. They are 14-2 ATS their last 16 games as a homedog. The 2 ATS losses were when Anthony Davis was not in the lineup. So they are 14-0 ATS their last 16 games as a homedog when Davis is in the lineup. New Orleans beat Golden State a few weeks ago as a homedog of +3.5 and now the line is even higher tonight, giving us more value. The Pelicans did not have Jrue Holliday in the lineup in that game either and now he is back expected in the lineup and is worth every bit of 2 points to this game.

Through the 1st 2 games, Golden State has not looked dominant as many would have expected. I don't think they will be dominant either in this game as this will be their first playoff road game. I think New Orleans plays with more heart in this one and leaves it all on the court. Let's take New Orleans to get us the cash this Thursday night. 

Play on Game #729  Portland Trailblazers +6 (8:05 PM EST)

After getting run out the gym early Sunday in Game 1, I look for Portland to not let things get out of hand tonight. Let's remember this is a Portland team that has two dominant players in Aldridge and Lilliard. I want to note that while the action in more evenly matched in the Playoffs, Memphis is the most popular play on the board in Game #2. All the public remembers is that Memphis was up by 29 in Game 1 and I think this is a good time to fade the public and take the underdog.

Aldridge said, "This is a wake-up call for us". Trust me, Portland is not a stranger to the playoffs. Before this series started, I was looking for a tough 7 game series and think it will still be that. Memphis has not been playing that good of basketball before this series. Beno Udrih had the best game of his life off the bench for Memphis and Lilliard played terrible for Portland. Things cannot get worse for Portland. They shot a season worse 33.7% from the floor. Lilliard got off to a slow start. Aldridge rushed his shots. Portland is expected to get Afflalo back in the lineup which can really help this team from the perimeter and I think he is worth more than what the line indicates in this game. In 4 games vs. Memphis this season, Afflalo is shooting 55% from the floor. Afflalo went to the playoffs 5 straight years from 2007-2012 so he is no stranger.

In closing, I just feel like these are two evenly matched teams. Both are defensive minded which I think makes the points more attractive in this game. Game 2 is an important game for the road team. If they go down 2-0, then the odds are going to be against them. Let's back Portland in this spot and look for a close game that comes down to the last 2 minutes. 

Play on Game #723 Washington Wizards +5 (8:05 PM EST)

We rode with the Wizards on Saturday and cashed easily. Now the linesmakers have raised this line because this is Game 2 and they know the need for Toronto to win the game. Well, I still like the Wizards. They might not win the game, but I can't see them losing by more than a bucket after watching Game 1.

The Wizards had a double digit lead in the 4th quarter before letting the Raptors force overtime. The Wizards then reclaimed the momentum to secure the win. They won the game despite Bradley Beal and John Wall going a combined 11-for-41 (27%) from the floor. Now I know Toronto struggled also as Lowry and Derozan had bad games, but I think the Wizards have the team to give Toronto problems. 3 of the last 5 meetings have went into overtime which again, makes the points even more attractive tonight. Paul Pierce showed up and he gives the team the Playoff experience they need. Toronto still doesn't play defense. I'm looking for a big game from Bradley Beal tonight. Look for him and Pierce to hit their share of 3 pointers while John Wall pushes the pace.

Like I said before, I like this Wizards team and I will be playing on them often this NBA Playoffs. Let's take the points in this one as this is just too many points to pass up.  

Play on Game #716 LA Clippers -1.5 (10:35 PM EST)

 These are arguably the two hottest teams in the NBA as they square off in Game 1 of the Playoffs. The Clippers finished off the season going 14-1 SU with the lone loss at home vs. Golden State. I will note in that loss they had a sizeable lead the whole game until the 4th quarter when they went dry from the floor. Paul and Redick were only 2-for-12 from the 3 point line.

I am going to go with my gut and intuition on this play and say the Clippers win Game 1 at home. The line is only -1.5 and I think it's a good bet to say they win by 2 buckets or more. Crawford is back for the Clippers and I see him destroying Ginobli. Popovich can try to play the foul game if he wants and put Jordan on the line, but the Spurs still lost when they tried to do that last time. The Clippers win the last game at home vs. the Spurs, 119-115. I will note that Griffin did not play in that game either. Griffin is ballin and I'm looking for the Clippers to cool off this Spurs team. The Spurs ended the season on a 0-3 ATS run and a road loss to the New Orleans Pelicans. That was crucial as it prevented them from getting the #2 seed in the West and now they have to go on the road in Game 1 instead of playing at home. Splitter and Bonner are listed as questionable for the Spurs as well. If they don't play, then that's just another added bonus for us.

This is the playoffs. I'm going to through trends and statistics out the door. I like the Clippers to win this series and it starts tonight on their home court. Lay the -1.5.

Play on Game #701 Washington Wizards +4 (12:35 PM EST)

I like the Wizards in this 1st game to either steal the game or at least get the cover. The Wizards had a up-and-down season, but they are back healthy and I think they have what it takes to beat the Raptors in this series. The Wizards have the backcourt of John Wall and Bradley Beal. Then they have the playoff experience with Paul Pierce. Pierce and Beal are shooting 39% combined on the season from the 3PT line. The rookie Otto Porter has also come on strong and can be a key guy in this matchup also. Nene and Gortat close to the basket don't miss. Then they also got Humphries back in the lineup and he is a key guy off the bench that can rebound and play defense.

I still don't think Toronto has what it takes to win a series and they have not been able to win at home by a comfortable margin lately either. The defense gives up 101 ppg. They do not block out either and I think the Wizards win the rebounding battle this Saturday then rely on John Wall to run the show. The Raptors are allowing opponents to shoot 46.3% on the season at home and that will not get the job done. Their last 5 home games they went 3-2 SU, but 2 of those victories were by 5 points or less. The win vs. the Lakers should not even count. They lost at home to Cleveland, Golden State,  and Portland down the stretch which tells me they are just not ready for Playoff caliber teams.

2 of the last 3 matchups between the Raptors and the Wizards have went into overtime which is good for us and the underdog (Wizards).  I think this is a game where the stars come out. Wall and Beal get the best of Lowry and DeRozan. Pierce is a seasoned veteran and I also look for him to come up big in the clutch. This will be a tight game but at the end of it, the Wizards come away with the cover. 

Play on Game #512 New Orleans Pelicans +5.5

I like New Orleans tonight as they are in a fight for the #8 seed and I think that they are an attractive homedog. Sure, the Spurs are the hottest team in the NBA and I know it's hard to fade them in this spot, but I want to note how the Pelicans have performed as a homedog this season.

New Orleans is 14-2 ATS as a homedog their last 16 tries. The 2 losses were when Anthony Davis was out with an injury. So with Davis in the lineup they are a PERFECT 14-0 their last 14 games as a homedog. This includes a win vs. Golden State last week and they have also beaten the Hawks, Clippers, and the Rockets at home this season.

New Orleans is 3-0 ATS vs. the Spurs this season with a 97-90 win in their lone home meeting. The Spurs come into this game with a 11 game win streak and are fighting for the #2 spot, but I think they have their hands full tonight. New Orleans is back healthy with Anderson in the lineup who can make shots from the perimeter along with Pondexter who was big in the game vs. the Warriors last week. They will also get a boost from Dru Holiday who is expected to play this game and will give them a solid boost off the bench. New Orleans has won 4 straight at home. They are guarding the perimeter and that is another key to this game as they can slow down the Spurs who have been red hot from the 3 point line.

The home team is 12-5 ATS the last 17 meetings and New Orleans is 7-1 ATS the last 8 meetings when playing at home vs. the Spurs. I think we are getting a ton of value in this game. New Orleans was a 3.5 point dog vs. the Warriors last week and now they are getting +5.5. This is 2 points more and with Holliday expected to return, I think he should be worth 1.5-2 points in this game. I am going to double up my wager tonight on New Orleans!

Play on Game #706 Phoenix Suns +10

While Phoenix will not be headed to the playoffs and the Clippers will be, I still like Phoenix to at least play with some pride in their final game of the season at home. Although the Suns lost by 16 @ San Antonio the other last night, they still showed respect and tried to play a close game. The problem was the Spurs shot 51% from the floor and shot 42% from the 3 point line. The other disadvantage was the Suns were playing their 6th road game of the their last 7 games overall. Now, they have had a day to rest and will be back home for their finale vs. a Clippers team that it took everything they had to get the win last night vs. Denver having to come back in the 4th quarter to win the game.

This is the Clippers 3rd game in 4 nights and the starters have been logging minutes as they have been trying to fight for playoff positioning. Looking at the Clippers playing on back-to-back spots, the last two times they have laid double digits on a back-to-back, they have lost both games ATS. On 1/26, they laid 14.5 to Denver and only won by 4. On 1/11 they laid 10 to the Heat and lost SU, 104-90.

Last time these two teams met was on 1/25 @ Phoenix and the Clippers only laid -2.5. Sure enough they won the game by 20, but I don't think that calls for a 7.5 point increase in this line. This line is inflated because of the Clippers playing for the playoffs. Before that game @ Phoenix, the Suns lost to the Clippers by 4, by8, and then beat them by 5 as a home dog of 6 points when playing at home.

I think this is a game where the Suns play with some respect and dignity. The Suns are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games as a homedog of 6 or more points. This includes covers vs. the Warriors, Rockets, and the Thunder which are all playoff caliber teams. The one ATS loss was only by 9 to the Hawks and it that game they were leading the majority of the game until the 4th quarter.

In closing, I think this line is just too high. The Suns will play with respect and try to play spoiler to a Clippers team that should be a bit fatigued form last night's win and they have to travel for this one so I think we see a Phoenix team that should be a bit refreshed. Take the Suns +10

Take Denver Nuggets +16

write up pending

Take the Rockets tonight at home. The Rockets have owned the Spurs lately and when they do lose to the Spurs, it is by less than 6 points. Spurs playing on a back-to-back and the ROckets have 2 days rest. Parker got injured last night also for the Spurs giving the Rockets the advantage in the backcourt. Let's take Houston to get us the Ca$h tonight. 

This is too many points tonight. Look for the Bucks to fight all the way to the end and leave it all on the court. The Cavs might give some guys some rest and the Bucks are still looking to clinch a play-off spot. 

Take the Padres with the +1.5 tonight

Take New Orleans