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FREE PICKS
Matchup Selection W/L
NFL  |  Oct 22, 2017
Cardinals vs. Rams
Total
47½ -110
  at  BETONLINE
in 13h

Free Pick on Rams/Cardinals UNDER

I think we get another defensive battle in London with the Rams and Cardinals. These two NFC West rivals combined for 50 in the final meeting last year, but that was all Arizona in a 44-6 win. The previous six meetings all finished with 46 or fewer points and I look for it to return to form here. 

The Rams got people excited about their offense early, but they put up big numbers against bad defenses. I know the Cardinals have allowed 30+ in each of their last two games, but they had the Bucs held to just 6 points last week before taking their foot off the gas in the 4th quarter. A mistake they won't make again after letting it get too close at the end. 

The other key here is the Rams are starting to play up to their potential on defense. It started in the 2nd half against Dallas when new DC Wade Phillips moved a couple rookies into the starting lineup. They have been lights out since and I think they make life miserable for the Cardinals in this one. 

UNDER is 9-3 in the Rams last 12 games against division opponents and 11-5 in their last 16 off a win. It's also 7-3 in the Cardinals east 10 against the NFC West and 4-1 in their last 5 after giving up 30+ points. Take the UNDER! 

YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Oct 20, 2017
Pistons vs Wizards
OVER 210½ -110 Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

4* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Pistons OVER

Washington combined for 235 points with the 76ers in their home opener and I see another high-scoring game against Detroit at home tonight. The Wizards are down starting power forward Markieff Morris and may also be without his backup in Jason smith, who left the last game with a shoulder injury. They don't have a lot of other options outside of moving Kelly Oubre Jr. into the 4, which becomes a much more uptempo offense in their version of 'small ball' 

Detroit held the Hornets to just 90 points in their opener, but Charlotte was down 3 key players in Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Nicolas Batum and Michael-Carter Williams. While that aided their defense, the Pistons offense was sharp, connecting on 43% from the field. They are more than capable of running with the Wizards. Both teams should easily get to 100 points and have this finishing closer to 220. Take the OVER! 

Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Oct 20, 2017
Magic vs Nets
OVER 223½ -103 Won
$100
Play Type: Top Premium

5* NBA Eastern Conf TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Nets OVER

Defense is clearly not a priority for the Nets. Brooklyn ranked 2nd to last in points allowed last year at 112.5 ppg and started out the 2017 season by giving up 140 to a Pacers team that lost their best scorer in Paul George. The big difference is that the Nets now have some offensive fire-power to stay with teams. They scored 131 against the Pacers and even with the loss of Lin, should continue to score at a high rate. 

Orlando put up 116 in their opener against the Heat, while giving up 109 and that was with Miami shooting just 43% from the field. Both these teams want to push the pace and play in the open court, which should have us flying over the mark set by the books. 

History is also on our side here. The OVER is hitting at a 61% clip since 1996 when you have a team off a combined score of 225 or more against a team off a combined score of 235 or more. Take the OVER! 

Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Oct 20, 2017
Yankees vs Astros
Astros
-137 at betonline
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

3* Yankees/Astros Game 6 HEAVY HITTER on Houston -

It's hard to go against a team that's won 3 straight, but I just see too much value here in the Astros at home with Verlander on the mound. Verlander has been lights out down the stretch and was incredible in Game 2 against these Yankees, giving up just 1 run with 13 K's, while going the distance. 

Yankees send out Luis Severino, who I'm not convinced can shoulder the load of this game. All I can recall is that Wild Card start against the Twins, where he gave up 3 runs while recording just 1 out in the Top of the 1st before getting pulled. He also wasn't great in Game 2 opposite of Verlander, lasting just 4 innings without a single strikeout. I think Houston's offense comes to life here and they send this to a Game 7. Take Houston! 

Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Oct 20, 2017
Warriors vs Pelicans
Warriors
-8 -110 at 5Dimes
Tie
Play Type: Premium

4* NBA Late Night VEGAS INSIDER  on Warriors -

Unfortunately for the Pelicans they are going to get a pissed off Warriors team, who has to be chomping at the bit to get back on the floor after blowing a 15-point lead in the 2nd half in a 121-122 home loss to the Rockets. There was some concern here with Draymond Green being able to play, but he's going to be in action. 

New Orleans has two of the best big men in the game, but that's about it. Anthony Davis and DeMarcus Cousins both had a double-double and combined for 61 points, but only managed 91 for the game and lost by 8 to a pretty average Memphis team. I just don't see the Pelicans having enough offense, mainly 3-point shooting, to keep this competitive. Take Golden State! 

Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Oct 20, 2017
Cavs vs Bucks
Cavs
-2 -110 at 5Dimes
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

3* NBA Vegas LINE MISTAKE on Cavs -

Not to take anything away from the Bucks, who are going to be a force in the east for years to come, but this is simply too good of a price to pass up on the Cavs. Cleveland let a big lead slip away in an unfortunate non-cover against the Celtics at home on Tuesday, winning 102-99 as a 4.5-point favorite. That's helped us here with this line, plus we can count on the Cavs not taking their foot off the gas in this one. 

Losing Irving hurts, but I really like the moves Cleveland made in the offseason and really believe they are a better overall team than they were a year ago and will only get better once Isaiah Thomas returns from injury. The Cavs know the Bucks are a team on the rise and will want to make a statement against their division rivals early on. 

Whether it's a big home crowd or sold out arena on the road, Cleveland has been a great bet on Friday, going 23-8 ATS over their last 31, which includes a 13-4 ATS mark over the last 2 seasons. Take Cleveland! 

Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Oct 20, 2017
Jazz vs Wolves
UNDER 198½ -103 Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

4* NBA Over/UNDER Total DOMINATOR on Jazz UNDER

The Timberwolves should be one of the more improved defensive teams this season. They added in Jimmy Butler, Taj Gibson and Jeff Teague to pair with Andrew Wiggins and Karl-Anthony Towns. Head coach Tom Thibodeau is a defensive first guy and after not playing well on that side of the ball against the Spurs in the opener, I expect a strong showing at home against the Jazz. 

Utah is also the ideal teal for a team to go up against when you want to a low-scoring affair. The Jazz don't play at a frantic pace and are very strong defensively with the best rim protector in the game in Gobert. They allowed the fewest points in the league last year, giving up just 96.8 ppg and were on point in their opener, allowing just 96 to a very good Denver team that wants to get up and down the floor. 

UNDER is 21-9 in the T-Wolves last 30 games against a division opponent and 7-3-1 in their last 11 home games against the Jazz. Take the UNDER! 

Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Oct 20, 2017
Pistons vs Wizards
Pistons
+6½ -110 at 5Dimes
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

3* NBA Undervalued UNDERDOG on Pistons +

I'm taking the points here with Detroit in Friday's showdown at Washington. The Wizards had their hands full in their home opener against the 76ers, where they failed to cover as a 7-point favorite.

I just feel Washington is getting a little too much love to start the season. They are down starting power forward Markieff Morris and could be without his backup in Jason Smith, leaving them very thin at the 4.

Detroit really impressed in their opener, defeating a good Charlotte team by 12 at home. They held the Hornets to just 90 points and under 40% from the field. They also took great care of the ball with just 9 turnovers. I like their chances of keeping this close and could easily see them winning this outright. Take Detroit. 

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Oct 20, 2017
Marshall vs Middle Tennessee State
Middle Tennessee State
+3 -110 at Bovada
Lost
$110.0
Play Type: Premium

4* NCAAF No Doubt ATS ANNIHILATOR on Middle Tennessee State +

I like the value we are getting here with the Blue Raiders catching a field goal at home against Marshall. The betting public is all over the Thundering Herd because of the fact that Middle Tennessee is without starting quarterback Brent Stockhill. The books know this and have certainly inflated this line in the Blue Raiders favor. 

The thing is, Middle Tennessee does have a capable backup in sophomore John Urzua, who has flashed some decent potential, throwing for 359 yards against FAU. Marshal comes in with some great defensive numbers and actually rank 25th in the country in total defense, giving up just 321.7 ypg. I'm not saying they aren't good, they just aren't as good as that ranking would suggest. The Thundering Herd have 5 games against Miami (OH), Kent St, Cincinnati, Charlotte and Old Dominion. The only decent offense they have faced is NC State and they gave up 37 points and nearly 500 yards of offense. 

The other thing with Marshall's easy schedule is the concerns that they only rank 93rd in total offense. That's extremely low given the talent they have faced. Middle Tennessee's defense ranks 40th and has been tested by the likes of Vanderbilt, Syracuse and Minnesota. I think Marshall struggles to get the offense going on the road in what's going to be a hostile environment under the lights. Take Middle Tennessee! 

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Oct 20, 2017
Marshall vs Middle Tennessee State
OVER 48½ -110 Lost
$110.0
Play Type: Free

Free pick on Marshall/Middle Tennessee OVER 

I think we are getting some good value here with this low total that's been set for Friday's C-USA matchup between Marshall and Middle Tennessee. The Blue Raiders aren't the same offensive team without junior QB Brent Stockstill, who hasn't played in the last 5 and is listed as doubtful. His absence will have the public looking to take the UNDER with Marshall not considered a high-scoring team, but the books have already adjusted the number here.

Middle Tennessee sophomore John Urzua has flashed some decent potential, throwing for 359 yards against FAU. He's not afraid to take chances and that's not a bad thing. It increases the likelihood of some big plays and quick scores for Marshall, as well as some turnovers for Marshall that should lead to good field position and quick scores. We just have to hope the turnovers don't come deep in Marshall territory. 

I mentioned the Thundering Herd aren't considered a great offense. However, they have shown some positive signs here of late, scoring 38 at Cincinnati and 35 against Old Dominion last time out. Memphis isn't a great defensive team by any means and I look for Marshall to be able to move the ball. All we need is a combined 25 points each half and we are clear of the mark by 1.5-points. I think they get that and a lot more. Take the OVER! 

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Oct 20, 2017
Colorado State vs New Mexico
New Mexico
+7 +105 at betonline
Won
$105
Play Type: Premium

4* NCAAF Friday Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on New Mexico +

I like the value here with the Lobos catching a touchdown at home against Colorado State. I believe we are getting value because of the fact that New Mexico is fresh off a 38-0 loss at Fresno State in a game they were favored to win (-2.5). As well as the fact that the Rams enter having won 3 straight and beat the Lobos by 18 in last year's meeting. Keep in mind that Colorado State was just a 6.5-point home favorite in that meeting last year. When you factor in the 3.5 points for home field and this line should be closer to 3 than 7. 

New Mexico simply laid an egg last week. I actually like the fact that they are coming off an embarrassing loss, as we can count on them coming into this game with a chip on their shoulder. They also are going to benefit from playing at home under the lights. At the same time we could see Colorado State not take them as seriously as they should. 

I also think people are quick to overlook that the Rams barely snuck out a 44-42 win at home last week against Nevada as a massive 24-point favorite. It puts Colorado State in a historically bad spot, as they are just 5-15 ATS in their last 20 road games off a win by 6 points or less. 

New Mexico is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 off a SU loss and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 after scoring less than 20 points. They also have fared well against high-scoring teams like Colorado State, as they are 38-18 ATS in their last 56 games vs a team that's averaging 31+ points/game. Take New Mexico! 

PICKS IN PROGRESS
Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Oct 21, 2017
Suns vs Clippers
Clippers
-12½ -105 at 5Dimes
Play Type: Premium

4* NBA No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Clippers -

I think a lot of people wrote off the Clippers when Chris Paul decided to go to Houston, but this is still one of the top teams in the West and they are coming into this season with a chip on their shoulder. LA looked great in their opener against the Lakers, holding them to just 92 points and winning by 16 despite a bad shooting night (39.3%). 

I look for the shots to fall at a higher rate and for the Clippers to make easy work of the Suns tonight. Phoenix bounced back from a 76-124 loss to the Blazers in their home opener with a better showing, but still lost 130-132 to the Lakers last night. Their 3 best players in Booker, Bledsoe and Warren all logged 30+ minutes. I look for the Suns to come out flat and suffer another embarrassing loss.

Phoenix is a mere 4-15 ATS in their last 19 road games after scoring 115 or more in their previous game. The home team and the favorite are both 6-1 ATS last 7 in the series. Take Los Angeles! 

Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Oct 21, 2017
76ers vs Raptors
OVER 215 -105 Won
$100
Play Type: Top Premium

5* 76ers/Raptors VEGAS INSIDER Top Play on Raptors OVER 

I look for these two teams to fly OVER the total set here by the books. Philadelphia scored just 92 in the loss at home to Boston last night and are going to be without one of their best defenders in Embiid, who isn't playing back-to-backs just yet. I think the entire 76ers team struggles on defense being on the road with no rest against a potent Toronto offense that needed just 83 shots to score 117 in their opener.

The Raptors did allow a Bulls team that was missing half their roster to score 100, so we can expect Ben Simmons and company to at least hit that mark. Keep in mind that Philadelphia had 115 in their opener at Washington. 

OVER is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings overall and 6-2 in the last 8 times they have played in Toronto. OVER was 14-6 in 76ers last 20 games last year when playing on no rest and 7-0 in Toronto's last 7 home games when playing against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games. Take the OVER! 

Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Oct 21, 2017
Blazers vs Bucks
UNDER 214½ -105
Play Type: Top Premium

5* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Blazers UNDER

The books have set the bar too high on the total for Saturday's non-conference matchup between the Blazers and Bucks. Portland's defense has been exceptional to start the year. The Blazers held the Suns to just 76 points in their opener and that same Phoenix team score 130 the next night. They followed it up by holding the Pacers to just 96 and Indiana had scored 140 in their previous game.

Bucks are talented young team with a great player in Antetokounmpo, but aren't a great 3-point shooting team and are strong defensively. Exactly what you look for when you want a low-scoring game. I also think the tempo of this game won't be up to normal pace with both teams playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back. For Portland it's their 3rd road game in 4 nights and Milwaukee just put it all on the line last night against the LeBron and the Cavs at home. 

Backing this play is a great long-term system. The UNDER is 58-25 (70%) over the last 5 seasons (3-0 to start 2017) when you have a total of 200 or more in a non-conference game with a team that averaged 14 or fewer turnovers/game the previous year (Blazers). Take the UNDER!

Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Oct 21, 2017
Spurs vs Bulls
UNDER 202½ -107 Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

4* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Bulls UNDER

I just don't see these two teams playing a very high-scoring game here tonight. San Antonio is without their best offensive weapon and MVP candidate in Kawhi Leonard, as well as starting PG Tony Parker. Chicago has half their roster either hurt or suspended and even at full strength the Bulls were going to feature one of the weakest rosters in the NBA, as they are in the very early stages of a major rebuilding phase. 

San Antonio is one of the most efficient defenses in the league just about every year and were spot in their opener, holding the T-Wolves to just 99 points on 43.5% shooting. Chicago only connected on 41.6% of their attempts at Toronto and I think they are going to find it really hard to put the ball in the basket tonight. Key here is we should get enough effort out of the Bulls defensively to keep this from going over. 

Backing this play is a great long-term system. The UNDER is 58-25 (70%) over the last 5 seasons (3-0 to start 2017) when you have a total of 200 or more in a non-conference game with a team that averaged 14 or fewer turnovers/game the previous year (Spurs). Take the UNDER!

Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Oct 21, 2017
Blazers vs Bucks
Blazers
+3½ -108 at 5Dimes
Play Type: Premium

3* NBA Vegas ODDSMAKERS ERROR on Blazers +

For whatever reason Portland wasn't getting a ton of love coming into this season and I think they are still flying under the radar, which is hard to do when you are off back-to-back blowout road wins. The thing is they beat a couple of teams no one is expecting a lot out of, but I think we could see the Blazers be the Rockets of last year, who just covered everything to start the season as no one believed they were as good as they were playing. 

Portland is getting it down on both sides of the ball, averaging 119 ppg and allowing just 86 ppg. They held the Suns to 76 and Phoenix went out in their next game and scored 130. Indiana had just put up 140 and they held them to 96. Milwaukee's offense hasn't looked great and I think they struggle to keep pace with the Blazers in a bit of a letdown spot after hosting the Cavs on national TV last night. Take Portland! 

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Oct 21, 2017
Arizona vs California
UNDER 61½ +115
Play Type: Premium

3* NCAAF Over/Under Total NO BRAINER on Arizona Under 

This one has been set too high here by the books. I just don't see this being a shootout. Cal's offense was able to put up 37 last week, but they clearly were up against a Wash St team that didn't come to play. Two weeks ago they managed just 7 points and 93 totals yards against Washington. Arizona's not an elite defense, but are capable of keeping the Golden Bears offense in check. Even with the big game against the Cougars, Cal still ranks 89th in scoring (26.1 ppg) and 109th in total offense (348 ypg).

All the talk here is about the Wildcats new quarterback in Khalil Tate, who has rushed for 557 yards in the last two games. I think he's a good find for Arizona, but that was against Colorado, who ranks 99th in run defense and UCLA, who ranks 129th. Cal's defense isn't as good as it was last week against the Cougars, but it's going to put up better numbers at home and are better built to stop the run than the pass. I think they at least make Tate and the Arizona offense work for their points, which is going to eat up the clock with how much they like to run the ball. That should have this finishing closer to 50 than 60. Take the UNDER!

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Oct 21, 2017
Colorado vs Washington State
OVER 52 +100
Play Type: Top Premium

5* NCAAF Late Night NO LIMIT Top Play Colorado OVER 

I think we are getting great value here on the total at just 52 points. Forget what happened last week with Washington State. When the Cougars fail to show up for a game they do it in style. Just look at last year's bowl game against Minnesota and 17-45 loss to rival Washington. While the loss to Cal hurts, they still are in great shape to win the North and play in the Pac-12 title game. I expect this team to rebound and to do so in a big way. 

The Cougars have scored 45+ 3 times already this season and had 30+ in every other game prior to the letdown to the Bears. Cal's not an easy place to play and there's no reason to think they don't show up at home against a Colorado defense that has allowed 33 to Oregon State and 45 to Arizona in their last two games. 

I also think we get plenty of help from the Buffaloes on the scoreboard. This Washington State defense is good but not great. Colorado's offense is playing with a ton of confidence and I think they are going to keep pace with Washington St and make this a game into the 2nd half. 

OVER is 20-4 in Colorado's last 24 road games after 2 straight games with 1 or fewer turnovers and 5-1-1 in Washington State's last 7 after a game where they failed to cover the spread. Take the OVER! 

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Oct 21, 2017
Arizona State vs Utah
OVER 56 -102 Lost
$102.0
Play Type: Top Premium

5* NCAAF Pac-12 TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Utah OVER

I think we are seeing a much lower total than what we should, due to the fact that Arizona State is coming off a 13-7 win at home over Washington. Everything went right for the Sun Devils in that one and I'm banking on their defense returning to form and giving up a bunch of points. Prior to holding the Huskies to 7-points, Arizona State had allowed at least 30 points in each of their previous 11 games. 

It's still not official, but Utah's offense could be getting a big boost with the return of starting quarterback Tyler Huntley. If he plays this thing should fly over the mark, but I still think we get to 57 rather easily if he doesn't 

Both of these defenses are in huge letdown spots. While the Sun Devils were laying it all on the line against USC, the Utes were at USC and suffered a crushing 27-28 loss. These two teams combined for 75 points a year ago and that was with an identical total of 56 points. 

Utah's defense strength has been stopping the run under Whittingham, but they can be attacked through the air. In fact, the OVER is 12-4 the last 16 times the Utes have faced a poor rushing team that is averaging 3.25 or less yards/carry and these games have averaged over 62 points. Take the OVER! 

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Oct 21, 2017
North Carolina vs Virginia Tech
Virginia Tech
-20½ -110 at BMaker
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

3* NCAAF NO Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Virginia Tech -

This might seem like a big number for the Hokies to be laying, but I really like what I have seen from this Virginia Tech team and feel they are flying a bit under the radar after failing to cover their last two. The thing is they were getting a little too much love against Clemson at home and got rolled. They were then a huge letdown spot at BC and won by 13 as a 14-pt favorite. 

UNC has covered one spread all season and that was at Old Dominion. The Tar Heels are just 1-6 overall and have lost by double-digits in 3 of their last 4 games. UNC ranks 114th in total defense and 99th in total offense. The Hokies are 23rd in total defense and 26th in total offense. This is a complete mismatch and even more so with Va Tech off a bye. 

Great system in play that backs a fade of the Tar Heels in this one. Underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points that have failed to cover the spread in 4 or 5 of their last 6 games and have won 25% or less of their games are a mere 9-34 (21%) ATS vs a team with a winning record. Take Virginia Tech. 

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Oct 21, 2017
Indiana vs Michigan State
OVER 45 -110 Lost
$110.0
Play Type: Premium

4* NCAAF No Limit TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Michigan State OVER

I like the value here with this low total and these two Big Ten teams going over the mark set by the books. It wouldn't be anything new, as the OVER is 8-1 in the last 9 meetings with a perfect 4-0 mark the last 4 times they have faced off in East Lansing. 

Michigan State should have no problem moving the chains and finishing off drives as they have the 40th ranked rushing attack at 192.2 ypg and will be up against a Indiana defense that ranks 79th against the run, giving up just over 170 ypg. The offensive numbers for the Spartans aren't great, but that has a lot to do with the fact that half of their games have been against Notre Dame, Michigan and Iowa. 

Indiana's offense should be able to provide enough here to push this over the mark. The Hoosiers put up 20 on Michigan last week and 21 against Ohio State. I think they can get to at least 20 here and the Spartans should be able to do the rest. 

OVER is 35-15 in Michigan State's last 50 games when they enter having covered the spread in at least 4 of their last 6 and 40-16 in Indiana's last 56 games when listed as a dog of 3.5 to 10 points. Take the OVER! 

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Oct 21, 2017
Southern Miss vs Louisiana Tech
Southern Miss
+3 -110 at BMaker
Play Type: Premium

4* NCAAF Vegas LINE MISTAKE on Southern Miss +

Louisiana Tech has had trouble winning close games this year. The most recent was a 22-23 defeat at UAB, who didn't play football a season ago. I just don't think they are very good this year. However, a lot of people still trust them based on the fact they have won 9 games each of the last 3 seasons.

I think people will be drawn to La Tech laying a small number at home off a bye, but I'm taking the points with the Golden Eagles, who have won 2 straight and 4 of 5. The most recent a 24-0 beatdown of UTEP, where they outgained the Miners 423 to 147 with a 20 to 6 edge in first downs. 

Coming off a bye isn't always a good thing. The Bulldogs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 off a bye. The Golden Eagles are 28-13 ATS in their last 41 road games after a win by 21 or more points and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 overall. 

We also have a strong system favoring a play on Southern Miss based off the spot we find them. Road underdogs who are excellent offensive teams (440+ ypg) vs a good offensive team (390 to 440 ypg) are 30-8 ATS over the last 10 seasons after a game in which they outgained their opponent by 225 or more total yards. Take Southern Miss! 

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Oct 21, 2017
Wyoming vs Boise State
OVER 43½ -110
Play Type: Premium

4* NCAAF Late Night Bookie DESTROYER Wyoming OVER

This is about as low of a total as you are going to see in college and I just don't think it's warranted. I know Boise State's defense has held BYU to 7 points and San Diego St to 14 in their last two games, but those aren't exactly high-powered offenses. The game prior to that they gave up 42 at home to Virginia. Wyoming's offense struggled early in the year, but have scored 28 in each of their last 3 games and put up 30 in a win over Boise State last year. 

Cowboys quarterback Josh Allen, who is an NFL prospect, threw for 274 yards and 3 scores last year against the Broncos. He's thrown the ball well in each of his last two games and I think he has another big game here. 

Wyoming's defense has good numbers but have struggled against the better offenses they have faced. They haven't held Boise State under 28 points since 2007 and if the Broncos hit 28, we only need 16 from Wyoming to eclipse this mark. I think we get more than that from Wyoming, who I could see winning this game outright. Take the OVER! 

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Oct 21, 2017
Louisville vs Florida State
UNDER 59½ -110 Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

3* NCAAF Early Bird Total DOMINATOR on Louisville/Florida St UNDER

I think we are getting some great value here with this total in Saturday's ACC matchup between Louisville and Florida State. These totals with the Cardinals have been inflated all season and I think it's definitely inflated here after they combined for 87 points last week against Boston College. The number here is also high due to the fact these two teams combined for 83 last year with Louisville accounting for 63. 

I just don't see that kind of offensive output this time around. While Lamar Jackson has great numbers, this Louisville team isn't as good as it was last year. Defenses have a much better game-plan for Jackson and we have seen him struggle against the two best defenses he's faced in Clemson and NC State. I put this FSU defense right up there with those two. 

At the same time, this isn't just another game for the Seminoles defense. Don't think for a second they have forgot about what Jackson and company did to them last year. The 63 points that Louisville scored was the most points ever allowed by a Florida State team. This defense has had this came circled and I expect them to play their best game of the season. 

On the other side of this, Florida State's offense continues to struggle without starting quarterback Deondre Francois. They had 425 total yards last week against Duke and only managed 17 points. They are 122nd in the country at 18.2 ppg. I know the Louisville defense isn't playing very well, but I think they can keep this offense from going off and that should have us well below the mark here set by the books. Take the UNDER! 

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Oct 21, 2017
Illinois vs Minnesota
Minnesota
-13 -110 at betonline
Lost
$110.0
Play Type: Premium

4* NCAAF Situational ATS NO BRAINER on Minnesota -

Good spot here to jump back on the Golden Gopher bandwagon. Minnesota's stock has taken a huge hit as they have followed up their 3-0 start with 3 straight losses. Lucky for them they get a chance to get right against the worst team in the conference in Illinois, who just lost at home to Rutgers by double-digits. They also have a 29-point defeat to Iowa and 22-point loss at home to Nebraska on the resume.

Key here is that we can count on a big time effort from the Gophers, as they can't afford to overlook Illinois after losing 3 straight. That should be all it takes for them to win here by at least 2 touchdowns.  It's been a good spot to back Minnesota, as they are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 off a conference loss. Illinois on the other hand is 11-27 ATS in their last 38 off a SU loss and 8-20 ATS in their last 28 on the road. Take Minnesota! 

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Oct 21, 2017
Arizona vs California
Arizona
PK -115 at betonline
Play Type: Premium

3* NCAAF Prime Time ATS ANNIHILATOR  on Arizona -

Most will be quick to take Cal at home here after they just dominated the No. 5 team in the country in Washington State 37-3. Arizona wasn't even a home favorite against Houston, Utah or UCLA. I think line tells you everything and there's every reason to like Arizona in this one. 

The Wildcats have found something special in sophomore quarterback Khalil Tate, who has 557 rushing yards in his last two games. He doesn't throw a ton, but has been accurate when he has to make a play through the air, completing 74.3% of his attempts. I just don't see Cal being able to slow him down enough to keep this one close. 

While Cal's offense was able to put up 37 last week, they clearly were up against a Wash St team that didn't come to play. Two weeks ago they managed just 7 points and 93 totals yards against Washington. Arizona's not an elite defense, but are capable of keeping the Golden Bears offense in check. Even with the big game against the Cougars, Cal still ranks 89th in scoring (26.1 ppg) and 109th in total offense (348 ypg). I think the Wildcats win this one going away. Take Arizona! 

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Oct 21, 2017
Wyoming vs Boise State
Wyoming
+14 -110 at BMaker
Play Type: Premium

3* NCAAF Late Night Bailout BLOWOUT  on Wyoming +

I like the value here with the Cowboys catching two touchdowns against Boise State, who I think is seeing an inflated line. The Broncos covered in a 24-7 win at BYU in a prime time week day game two weeks ago and are off a 31-14 beatdown of No. 19 San Diego State on the road as a underdog. Boise should be favored here, but not by this much. 

There was a lot of hype on this Wyoming team coming into the season because their starting QB Josh Allen was getting talked about as a 1st round pick in next year's NFL draft. That went away quickly with three straight non-covers, which included a 21 point loss at Iowa and 36 point embarrassing loss at home to Oregon as a mere 13.5-point dog. That was the perfect time to buy low and they have covered 3 straight. The public loves to back Boise and won't jump back on them   here. 

Wyoming beat Boise State 30-28 last year as a 14.5-point home dog. Allen did a lot of the damage, throwing for 274 yards and 3 scores. I think he has another big game here. This Boise defense has been exposed a couple times, giving up 47 to Washington State and 42 at home to Virginia. I think the Broncos pull this one out, but I wouldn't be shocked if the Cowboys won outright again. Take Wyoming! 

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Oct 21, 2017
Michigan vs Penn State
Michigan
+10 +100 at betonline
Play Type: Premium

4* NCAAF Vegas HEAVY HITTER on Michigan +

This is just too good to pass up with the Wolverines catching double-digits against any team in the Big Ten. Michigan hasn't looked good the past couple of weeks and people aren't as high on this team after they lost at home to Michigan State. I still think the Wolverines are one of the best teams in the country. Jim Harbaugh is going to feed his players on how little respect they are getting and will come out with a chip on their shoulder. 

I also think Harbaugh and Michigan are coming in looking to make a statement against one of the favorites to win the Heisman in Saquon Barkley. Last year they held him to 136 total yards with just 3.9 yards/carry on the ground and Penn State managed just 10 points. Michigan comes in leading the country in total defense, while ranking 6th against the run (85.8 ypg) and 3rd against the pass (138.0 ypg). I think they are going to keep the Nittany Lions in check. 

I know Michigan's offense has been bad, but I'm confident Harbaugh is holding back a few wrinkles for this one. I think the Wolverines will play well offensively and wouldn't be shocked if they did enough to win this game outright. Take Michigan! 

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Oct 21, 2017
South Florida vs Tulane
Tulane
+11½ +105 at betonline
Won
$105
Play Type: Premium

3* NCAAF Undervalued UNDERDOG  on Tulane +

It's been smooth sailing for South Florida in 2017, as the Bulls have opened up the season 6-0 and have won each of their last 3 by 30-points. No surprise as this team has played about as easy of a schedule as you will find. A lot of teams would be 6-0 if they started out against San Jose St, Stony Brook, Illinois, Temple, East Carolina and Cincinnati. Not a single one of those FBS teams they have faced own a winning record and Temple is the best of the bunch at 3-4. 

Now the Bulls have to hit the road and play a much-improved Tulane team in what's going to be their biggest game of the season outside of a bowl game if they get there. The Green Wave have made big strides in year two under Willie Fritz. They are going to play keep away from the Bulls and use that 10th ranked rushing attack to grind out possessions, which is going to where down the USF defense and keep the Bulls' offense out of sync. I think USF does enough to stay unbeaten, but I think this one comes right down to the wire. Take Tulane! 

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Oct 21, 2017
Indiana vs Michigan State
Michigan State
-7 -115 at betonline
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

3* NCAAF Vegas ODDSMAKERS ERROR on Michigan State -

I like the value here with the Spartans laying just a touchdown at home against the Hoosiers. Michigan State has started out 5-1, but I don't feel they get the respect they deserve due to the fact that they lost at home to Notre Dame by a final of 18-38. That was a very misleading score, as the Spartans actually outgained the Irish by 141 yards. They bounced back with an impressive win at home over Iowa and followed it up with road wins over both Michigan and Minnesota.

I see no reason why they won't be able to take care of business against Indiana, who I think is still getting a lot of love for how they played Ohio State for 3 quarters at home in their opener. This team lost by 31 at Penn State last time they were away from home.

Even with that loss and non-cover against Notre Dame, the Spartans are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games at home and own a perfect 6-0 ATS record at home in the 2nd half of the season over the last 3 years. Indiana hasn't covered in 4 straight conference games and are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 trips to East Lansing. Take Michigan State! 

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Oct 21, 2017
Iowa vs Northwestern
Iowa
+105 at GTBets
Lost
$100.0
Play Type: Premium

4* NCAAF Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Iowa

Forget the spread in this one and just take the Hawkeyes to win on the money line. Northwestern is fresh off an impressive 37-21 win at Maryland and I think it has the Wildcats overrated. That's a Maryland team that is down to their 3rd string quarterback and a huge drop-off in terms of talent from the first two guys. The only other wins are against Bowling Green, who is awful and Nevada, who is currently 1-6 and they trailed the Wolf Pack by 10 in the 2nd half. 

Iowa on the other hand is a team that I think is flying a bit under the radar, as they are a few breaks away from being undefeated. They gave up a touchdown on the final play of the game in a 19-21 home loss to Penn State and the very next week gave Michigan State all they could handle in a 10-17 loss (fumbled twice in MSU territory). 

Hawkeyes have a big edge here in terms of scheduling, as they have had a full two weeks to prepare for this one coming off their bye. Iowa also matches up well with this Northwestern team. The Wildcats offense relies on their ability to run the ball and that plays into the strength of Iowa's physical front 7. Hawkeyes also have one of the top offensive lines, which is going to open up holes in the running game and allow quarterback Nathan Stanley to attack a Northwestern secondary that ranks 102nd in the country, giving up 250 ypg. 

Wildcats are just 9-22 ATS under Fitzgerald at home against a team with a winning record and only 4-15 ATS at home against teams that are outscoring opponents by 10+ points/game. Iowa is also a road covering machine, as they are 17-7 ATS in their last 24 road games. Take Iowa! 

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Oct 21, 2017
LSU vs Ole Miss
Ole Miss
+7 -105 at BMaker
Lost
$105.0
Play Type: Top Premium

5* NCAAF Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on Ole Miss +

I really like the value we are getting here with Ole Miss at home. The Rebels have been an afterthought in the SEC West, largely because they aren't eligible for postseason play. They also have some ugly losses mixed in there, losing by 20+ to Cal, Alabama and Auburn. All of those were on the road. This team showed up in their SEC home opener last week, crushing a good Vanderbilt team 57-35. I think we get another great effort here by the Rebels and talent wise Ole Miss is every bit as good as LSU. They also are playing with revenge from an embarrassing 21-38 loss to at LSU last year. 

The Tigers looked lost early against Auburn last week, falling behind 20-0 before rallying to win 27-23. That was a big game at home against a Top 10 opponent. I think the Tigers put everything they had into that one and are going to have a hard time showing up for this game. 

This is still the same LSU team that lost to Troy at home and by 30 at Mississippi State. Ole Miss has the skill players in the passing game to attack this Tigers defense. I look for the Rebels to score early and often this one. Should have no problem keeping this within a touchdown and wouldn't be shocked if they won outright. Take Ole Miss! 

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