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MLB  |  May 26, 2017
Royals vs. Indians
Indians
-1½ +125
  at  5DIMES
in 36m

10* FREE MLB PICK (INDIANS 1.5, +125)

I had a premium play yesterday on the Indians -1.5 with Clevinger on the mound in the series finale against the Reds and I'll fire right back with him in a similar spot in what will be the series opener against division rival KC. Clevinger looks to have finally figured this starter gig out and comes in with a 1.59 ERA in 3 starts and was nearly unhittable in his last outing, giving up just 2 runs with 8 strikeouts in 7 shutout innings on the road against a loaded Astros lineup. Now he faces one of the worst offensive teams in the majors in the Royals, who are scoring a mere 3.3 runs/game and hitting a miserable .213 as a team on the road. On the flip side of this, I look for Cleveland's offense to put up a decent number here, as they go up against the struggling Ian Kennedy, who is 0-2 with a 5.79 ERA in 3 road starts and has an ugly 8.49 ERA over his last 3 outings (Royals are 1-6 in his 7 starts this season). Give me the Indians -1.5 (+125)!

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MLB  |  May 26, 2017
Reds vs. Phillies
Phillies
-132
  at  5DIMES
in 31m

1 Unit FREE PLAY on Philadelphia Phillies -132

The Philadelphia Phillies are the right side today even as a decent-sized favorite.  They have the edge on the mound and it's not really even close.  Aaron Nola is one of the bright young starters in today's game.  He is 2-1 with a 3.52 ERA in four starts this season.  Nola has faced the Reds twice in his career, posting a 1.29 ERA and 0.71 WHIP in those two starts while allowing only two earned runs in 14 innings.  Tim Adleman is 2-2 with a 6.75 ERA in six starts this year, including 0-2 with a monstrous 11.37 ERA in two road starts.  The Reds are 2-8 in their last 10 road games vs. a right-handed starter.  The Reds are 7-21 in the last 28 meetings in Philadelphia.

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MLB  |  May 26, 2017
Orioles vs. Astros
Orioles
+144
  at  5DIMES
in 1h

The ERA shows 6.65. But the buy sign is on for me here with Baltimore starter Kevin Gausman. I'm willing to take a calculated leap of faith with Glausman and the Orioles at this tidy road underdog price against Houston. Gausman is showing definite signs of turning around his year after a disastrous start. He's had two quality starts in his last three outings giving up two earned runs during those two good games. He pitched his best game of the season three starts ago holding Washington to two runs on five hits in seven innings with eight strikeouts. The Nationals lead the majors in runs, batting average and homers.  The Orioles are four-for-20 with runners in scoring position during their last four games. Baltimore, though, ranks third in the league in batting with runners in scoring position. I see them getting back on track against Houston starter Joe Musgrove.  Musgrove is the weakest of Houston's starters. He has a 5.63 ERA. Foes are batting .306 against him and have smacked nine homers off him, including six by right-handers. The Orioles have plenty of right-handed power. Musgrove lasted just three innings in his last start, which came at home against the Indians this past Sunday. He was blasted for seven runs allowing eight hits and walking three.  Baltimore faced Musgrove once last season at home. The Orioles buried the Astros, 13-5, in that contest putting up eight runs on 11 hits and one walk against Musgrove in 5 1/3 innings. Houston is 1-5 in Musgrove's last six home starts. The Orioles were idle on Thursday, while the Astros had to use their best relievers to nip the Tigers, 7-6, Thursday.  The spot is ripe for the Orioles. They are going against a very vulnerable starter with their own starter displaying positive signs of coming around. Baltimore has been good in these type of situations, too, winning nine of the last 13 times when going against a home team with a winning percentage of better than .600.  (Editor's note: Stephen Nover is a sizzling 31-14-1 on his last 46 premium/free plays. Stephen has his MLB Game of the Week topping his Friday ticket today.)   
  

MLB  |  May 26, 2017
Cubs vs. Dodgers
Cubs
+123
  at  BMAKER
in 3h

Free Pick on Cubs +

I really like the value here with the Cubs as a decently priced underdog in the series opener against the Dodgers Friday night. Chicago put their early struggles to rest with an impressive 7-2 homestand and come in having won 3 straight. A big part of their surge has been the offense coming to life with the warmer weather, as the Cubs have hit 26 home runs over their last 14 games.

I know that LA starter Alex Wood is 4-0 with a 2.15 ERA in 7 starts, but he's had his struggles containing this Cubs lineup. He faced them earlier this season in Chicago and didn't even complete 4 innings before getting pulled. Not to mention he's due for a clunker after not giving up a run in 3 straight starts. As for the Cubs, they turn to Jake Arrieta, who has had a disappointing start to the season, but I believe it's only a matter of time before he gets going and he just might have turned the corner in his last start, where he allowed just 5 hits (1 walk) in 6 innings (didn't allow and earned run).

Cubs are 40-14 in Arrieta's last 54 starts after throwing a Quality Start in his previous outing, 21-8 in his last 29 in Game 1 of a series and 37-17 in his last 54 road starts. Dodgers are 2-9 in Wood's last 11 after a Quality Start, 1-6 in his last 7 during Game 1 of a series and 1-4 in his last 5 against a team with a winning record. Take Chicago!

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MLB  |  May 26, 2017
Orioles vs. Astros
OVER
9½ +105
  at  5DIMES
in 1h

Jack's Free Pick Friday: Orioles/Astros OVER 9.5

I expect plenty of offensive fireworks from the Baltimore Orioles and Houston Astros today to push the final score of this game OVER the posted total of 9.5.  These are two below-average starting pitchers against two great lineups, and the wind will be blowing 15 MPH out to straightaway center come gametime.

Kevin Gausman has been awful in 2017, going 2-3 with a 6.66 ERA and 1.859 WHIP in 10 starts.  He has been at his worst on the road, going 1-2 with a 9.47 ERA and 2.105 WHIP in five starts away from home.  Gausman is also 1-1 with a 6.17 ERA in two career starts against Houston.

Joe Musgrove is 3-4 with a 5.63 ERA and 1.554 WHIP in nine starts this season for the Astros.  He has been at his worst at home, going 1-4 with a 6.44 ERA and 1.671 WHIP in six starts.  Musgrove gave up eight runs, three homers and 12 base runners over 5 1/3 innings in a 5-13 loss to the Orioles in his only career start against them.

The OVER is 5-1-1 in Gausman's last seven starts overall.  The OVER is 12-3 in Astros last 15 games vs. AL East opponents.  The OVER is 5-1-1 in Musgrove's last seven starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

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MLB  |  May 26, 2017
Rays vs. Twins
Twins
+128
  at  GTBETS
in 1h

Dave's Friday Free Play:

1* on Minnesota Twins +128

The Key: The Twins have been one of the most profitable teams to back in all of baseball this season.  They are 25-18 on the year with +7.8 units of profit.  They are 6-1 in their last 7 games overall and we're getting a great price on them again tonight as home dogs to the Tampa Bay Rays.  Hector Santiago is 3-0 with a 3.07 ERA in 5 home starts this year for the Twins.  Chris Archer is 1-2 with a 4.74 ERA in 4 road starts for the Rays.  Santiago is 9-1 against the money line at home when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons.  The Rays are 5-23 in Archer's last 28 starts vs. a team with a winning record.  The Twins are 9-1 in their last 10 during game 1 of a series.  Take Minnesota.

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MLB  |  May 26, 2017
Reds vs. Phillies
Phillies
-132
  at  GTBETS
in 31m

Phillies

The Cincinnati Reds have snapped out of their slump with three wins in five games, but must buck history to keep it going when they visit the Philadelphia Phillies on Friday night for the opener of a three-game series. The Reds have not won a series at Philadelphia since 2006, going 0-9-1 in the last 10 sets with just 10 victories in 35 games overall in that span at Citizens Bank Park.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Reds RH Tim Adleman (2-2, 6.19 ERA) vs. Phillies RH Aaron Nola (2-1, 3.52)

Adleman was knocked around by Colorado last time out, giving up six runs and seven hits over 4 2/3 innings, coming on the heels of a one-inning stint at San Francisco due to a neck strain. The 29-year-old Georgetown product posted back-to-back wins to start May, holding the New York Yankees and Pittsburgh to five runs over 11 innings combined. Adleman lost his only start against the Phillies in 2016, allowing three runs over five frames.

Nola was solid in his first start in a month after dealing with back issues, permitting just one run and four hits in seven innings of a 1-0 loss to Pittsburgh. The 23-year-old LSU product gave up eight runs and 20 hits over 16 innings in his three starts during April when he went 2-0. Joey Votto is 0-for-5 and Scott Schebler 0-for-3 with three strikeouts versus Nola, who is 1-0 with a 1.29 ERA in two career starts against Cincinnati.


 

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