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NCAA-F  |  Nov 18, 2017
-16 -110
  at  GTBETS
in 15h


The ugly loss to Notre Dame has lit a fire under this USC team, as they have since went a perfect 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS, beating Arizona St on the road 48-17 as a 5-point favorite, Arizona 49-35 as a 7-point home favorite and Colorado 38-24 as a 13.5-point favorite. Even with them laying nearly 3-scores, I think there's some great value with the Trojans in this one. 

As you can see from the scores, USC's offense has been racking up the points. They are simply going to have a field day here against UCLA and that horrific defense of theirs. The Bruins simply can't stop the run, as they rank 130th in the country giving up 302.3 ypg on the ground. USC had over 330 yards rushing in both their wins over the Arizona schools and should easily top that mark here. 

I know UCLA can score and that offense is the only reason this line isn't bigger, I just don't think they will be able to score enough to keep this within the number. USC's defense isn't great, but it's capable of getting stops. Not to mention I think they are going to come out fired up in their final home game and last tune up before the Pac-12 title game. 

Lets also not overlook how bad the Bruins have been on the road, UCLA is just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 road games and are only scoring 22.8 ppg away from home during this stretch. It's also a plus they won last week, as they are just 1-8 ATS in their last 9 off a conference win. USC on the other hand is 12-3 ATS in their last 15 home games off 3 or more consecutive wins. Give me the Trojans -16! 


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NCAA-F  |  Nov 18, 2017
Connecticut vs. Boston College
50 -110
  at  5DIMES
in 14h
Neither of these teams are what you would call high-scoring. Connecticut ranks 94th in scoring at 24.6 points per game.  Boston College is even worse rating 104th in scoring at 23.3 points a game.  Both teams are using backup quarterbacks. BC quarterback Darius Webb has thrown just two touchdown passes in 109 throws. He's replacing Anthony Brown, who had started 10 straight games for the Eagles, but suffered a season-ending knee injury in the team's 17-14 loss to North Carolina last Saturday.  David Pindell is UConn's starting quarterback now replacing Bryant Shirreffs, who had started 29 of the Huskies' last 35 games. Shirreffs suffered a concussion two weeiks ago and no longer is going to play. He is fourth on UConn's all-time passing yardage list. Pindell has yet to prove he is an efficient downfield passer.  Making it worse are the probable weather conditions. This game is being played at Fenway Park, which we all know is a baseball field. Look for a slippery, slow track with rain in the forecast and wind. The forecast is for the rain and wind to get heavy before the end of the game.  The combination of backup quarterbacks and bad weather should ensure conservative game plans that feature lots of running and short passing, which eat clock.  Boston College shut out Connecticut, 30-0, in last year's meeting. The Huskies were held to 121 yards and eight first downs in that defeat.
NCAA-F  |  Nov 18, 2017
Air Force vs. Boise State
Boise State
-17½ -110
  at  GTBETS
in 17h

 The College football comp play is on Boise St. Game 348 at 10:15 eastern. Boise has won 5 straight and will look to serve up some last home game revenge here tonight on a Fading Air Force team. Boise was down 25 last week at Colorado St. and came back for a 7 point win. They are 86-4 vs losing teams long term and have covered in 8 of the last of those games. Game 11 teams that are .500 or less that were winning teams last season that are on off back to back losses vs an opponent who is a winning teams are failing to cover over 80% of the time long term, so we will play against an Air Force team that fits that system and allows over 40 points on the road. Play on Boise St in this one. The Highest rated 7* College Football Play of the year headlines on Saturday and leads a huge card with 3 big 5* releases one is the total of the month. There is also a powerful hoops card with 100% NBA Banger system and early season NCAAB System sides.  For the free play. Go with Boise St. RV- Golden Contender Sports

NCAA-F  |  Nov 18, 2017
Marshall vs. Texas-San Antonio
Texas-San Antonio
PK -110
  at  5DIMES
in 14h


The UTSA Roadrunners need another win to get bowl eligible.  They have a tough road game at Louisiana Tech next week, so I think they realize they need to take care of business against Marshall here tonight.  It's Senior Night and this is a veteran team that has accomplished quite a lot the past two seasons.  The Roadrunners are better than their 5-4 record too when you consider all four of their losses have come by 7 points or less and by a combined 17 points.  That's how close they are to being 9-0.  I think they take their frustrations out on Marshall today, a team that isn't as good as their 7-3 record suggests.  UTSA's defense is only allowing 293.7 yards pper game this season and they are outgaining their foes by 118 yards per game.  Marshall is only outgaining foes by 50 yards per game.  Give me UTSA.

*3-Time Top 3 NCAAF Capper! (#2 in 2012, #3 2016, #3 2008)*

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NCAA-F  |  Nov 18, 2017
Navy vs. Notre Dame
+18 -110
in 10h

Jack's Free Pick Saturday: Navy +18

I certainly question Notre Dame's motivation this week after they came up woefully short in their 'game of the year' last week at Miami.  They lost 41-8 to the Hurricanes in a complete no-show.  Had they won that game, they would have been in line to make the four-team playoff.  But now those dreams are crushed, and it's going to be hard for them to get back up off the mat in time to face a pesky Navy team this week.

This is a Navy team that will fight you for four quarters, and I'm not sure Notre Dame will be ready for that kind of fight.  This is one of many great Navy teams under Ken Niumatalolo, who would have a bigger job elsewhere by now if he didn't love it at Navy so much.  His players certainly go to war for him every week.

The Midshipmen have gone 6-3 this season, and they were competitive in all three losses.  They only lost 27-30 at Memphis as 3.5-point dogs, lost 21-31 at UCF as 10-point dogs, and lost 26-34 at Temple as 6-point favorites.  Memphis is 8-1 this season, UCF is 9-0, and Temple is playing its best football of the year.

Following those three consecutive losses, Navy bounced back with a 43-40 win over an upstart SMU team.  I think the fact that that final score was close is keeping this line higher than it should be.  But it really wasn't as close as the final score as Navy led 34-11 at halftime and outgained the Mustangs by 133 yards.  The Midshipmen rushed for a whopping 559 yards in the win.

Both teams love rely almost exclusively on the run to move the football, which will help shorten the game and keep Navy in it.  Navy averages 370 rushing yards per game while Notre averages 303.  But it's worth nothing that the Fighting Irish's leading rusher Josh Adams got hurt against Miami last week and may not be at 100%. That puts even more pressure on shaky QB Brandon Wimbush and the Notre Dame offense. 

Navy has been decent at stopping the run, giving up 166 rushing yards per game and 4.7 per carry against teams that average 212 yards per game and 5.0 per carry this season, holding them to 46 yards per game less than their season averages.  Notre Dame is only holding opponents to 35 rushing yards per game less than their season averages.  The weakness of Navy's defense is through the air, but Notre Dame won't be able to exploit it because they only average 52% completions and 168 passing yards per game.

Navy is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 games off a close win by 3 points or less.  Notre Dame is 1-11 ATS in its last 12 home games after trailing its previous game by 17 points or more at halftime.  The Fighting Irish are 0-6 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) over the last two seasons. 

Each of the last four meetings were decided by 17 points or less.  Navy has only lost twice in the last 10 meetings to Notre Dame by more than 17 points.  The road team is 17-5 ATS in the last 22 meetings.  The Midshipmen are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 trips to South Bend.  Bet Navy Saturday.

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NCAA-F  |  Nov 18, 2017
Purdue vs. Iowa
+8 -110
  at  BOVADA
in 10h

Free pick on Purdue +

I like the value here with the Boilermakers catching over a touchdown against the Hawkeyes on Saturday. Even after an ugly loss at Wisconsin this past Saturday, Iowa is still getting love from the oddsmakers and the public for what they did two weeks ago against Ohio State. As great as the Hawkeyes played in that game against the Buckeyes, I think that was more of Ohio State just not showing up mentally ready to play that game. 

We don't have to worry about the Boilermakers not showing up, as Purdue's bowl hopes are on the line, as they need to win out to become bowl eligible. While the Boilermakers are just 4-6 overall and 1-4 in their last 5, I have really liked what I've seen out of this team and most importantly I think this is a great matchup for Purdue.

Iowa's a physical offensive team that needs to be able to run the ball to open up the passing game. We saw that last week against Wisconsin, when they had just 25 yards rushing and 44 yards passing. Purdue's defense is a lot better than you would expect for a 4-6 team and their strength is stopping the run, as they rank 36th in the country giving up just 139.4 ypg. 

The offense for Purdue has been limited at times, but I think Brohm will be able to put together a game plan here to attack the Hawkeyes. Let's not forget the Badgers aren't a great offensive team and they put up nearly 400 yards on Iowa's defense. The other big key here is I think this Hawkeyes team is in a bad spot off those two monster games against Ohio State and Wisconsin and a big rivalry game on deck at Nebraska. I think the Boilermakers have a legit shot at winning this game, making this an easy play given the line. Take Purdue! 

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NCAA-F  |  Nov 18, 2017
Texas A&M vs. Ole Miss
Texas A&M
  at  5DIMES
in 14h

Texas A&M +125 1% Free Play 

Texas A&M is a different offense with Nick Starkel back at QB and it really makes the entire team better.  It will also help Starkel that his offense will be able to run the ball which hasn't been the case of late.  Here they'll face Ole Miss who is 125th in rushing yards allowed. 

Ole Miss is 5-5 and can't go to a bowl game so their motivation is beyond this game towards the Egg Bowl against Miss State.  Clearly a look ahead spot and we are getting value because the offense has not missed a beat since Shea Patterson was lost for the season.  However, QB Jordan Ta'amu has faced pass defenses ranked 110, 96, and 108.  Here he faced A&M who ranks 75th, not good, but A&M is ranked 4th at getting to the QB, and Ole Miss 85th at protecting their QB.  Ole Miss should have some mistakes in this one.  Ole Miss -7 TO margin to A&M's +6 TO margin.  A&M really needs to win in November to save their coaches job.  Here they are in a good match-up against a poor defense.  They have struggled against good defenses not the bad ones.  I expect the Aggies to win this game outright. 

NCAA-F  |  Nov 18, 2017
Army vs. North Texas
North Texas
-2½ -115
  at  5DIMES
in 13h

Dave's Saturday Free Play:

1* on North Texas -3

The Key: My favorite thing about North Texas in this game against Army is the fact that the Mean Green are very familiar with the Black Knights.  That's because they played twice last year, once in the regular season and once in the bowl game.  North Texas pulled the 35-18 upset at Army as 17.5-point dogs, but lost the rematch 31-38 as 10.5-point dogs.  It was impressive that they pretty much validated their win by taking the Black Knights to the wire in the rematch when it was clear that Army was the more motivated team.  I don't expect Army to be as motivated here because they are coming off two huge wins against Air Force and Duke.  And they have their biggest game on deck against Navy.  North Texas has been a great team this year, averaging 6.4 YPP on offense and giving up only 5.5 YPP on defense.  Army averages 6.0 YPP on offense and gives up 6.0 YPP on defense.  I really think the Mean Green are the better team, and they're playing at home here.  Take North Texas.

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NCAA-F  |  Nov 18, 2017
Kentucky vs. Georgia
+21½ -106
  at  5DIMES
in 10h

*3 Star Free Pick* The Georgia Bulldogs were beaten badly by Auburn last week. Georgia though still has a chance to play in the playoffs if they beat Alabama in the SEC title game. Georgia has two big games coming up. They play against rival Georgia Tech next weekend. They play Alabama the week after that. It would be easy for them to take it easy on Kentucky in this spot.

Kentucky has actually played well on the road. The Wildcats won at South Carolina. Kentucky also won big at Vanderbilt last week. I don't think this game will be really close, but I also don't think Georgia will drill Kentucky here.

Georgia plays at one of the five slowest tempo's in the country. The Bulldogs played relatively close games against Appalachian State and South Carolina at home. Look for them to win, but fail to cover this big number. There are far more important games ahead for Georgia.

Take Kentucky.

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