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NFL  |  Sep 24, 2017
Browns vs. Colts
Browns
-1½ -110
  at  5DIMES
in 10h

Jack's Free Pick Sunday: Cleveland Browns -1.5

The Cleveland Browns are clearly improved this season despite their 0-2 start.  They were competitive against two of the best teams in the NFL in the Steelers and Ravens.  They were only outgained by four total yards in those two games combined, so statistically they hung right with them.

The problem with the Browns thus far has been turnovers and special teams mistakes.  They committed five turnovers against the Ravens, yet still had numbers chances to cover the spread as 8-point dogs in a 14-point loss.  They only lost by 3 to the Steelers, and the difference in that game was a punt block that was returned for a TD by the Steelers.

Now the Browns will be motivated for a rare victory here against arguably the worst team in the NFL in the Indianapolis Colts.  The Colts are 0-2 and haven't even been competitive despite playing weaker competition.  They were outgained by 148 yards in their 9-46 loss to the Rams.  Then they were outgained by a depleted Cardinals team by 123 yards last week in a game they did not deserve to go to overtime against.  That games was a bigger blowout than the final score. The Rams and Cardinals aren't as good as the Steelers and Ravens, which is a key points here.

The Browns have the better defense, and it's not really even close.  They are giving up just 313 yards per game and 5.3 per play thus far, while the Colts are allowing 381 yards per game and 6.1 per play.  The Browns are averaging 311 yards per game and 5.3 per play on offense, so they have moved the ball fine.  The Colts are only averaging 245 yards per game and 4.4 per play.  So the Browns are basically dead even in yards per game and yards per play on the season, while the Colts are getting outgained by 136 yards per game and 1.7 yards per play.

Indianapolis is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 home games after scoring 14 points or less in two straight games.  Plays on road teams (CLEVELAND) - off a loss against a division rival, first month of the season, after closing out last season with 6 or more losses in last 8 games are 51-24 (68%) ATS since 1983.  The Browns are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  Bet the Browns Sunday.

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NFL  |  Sep 24, 2017
Dolphins vs. Jets
Jets
+6½ -115
  at  BOVADA
in 10h

1 Unit FREE PLAY on New York Jets +6.5

Just plug your nose and back the New York Jets and thank your bankroll after.  It's not going to be the popular side, but I think it is the right side Sunday.  Nobody wants to touch the Jets after their 0-2 SU & 0-2 ATS start.  But keep in mind they have played both games on the road at Buffalo and at Oakland.  Now they have their first home game and will be fired up for it.  The Miami Dolphins are a bottom half of the league team, but since they beat the Chargers last week, they are getting some respect.  They shouldn't be because the Chargers basically handed them the game.  And this is an awful traveling spot for the Dolphins.  They spent last week out in California, then they traveled back to Miami this week.  Now they'll have to travel up to New York.  That's a lot of time spent on an airplane.  I don't think we see the Dolphins' best game here because of it.  The Jets are a live dog this week.

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NFL  |  Sep 24, 2017
Saints vs. Panthers
Saints
+6 -115
  at  BOVADA
in 10h

Free Pick on Saints +

I like the value here with New Orleans catching almost a touchdown on the road against division rival Carolina. The value here comes from the Saints being 0-2 and the Panthers sitting at 2-0. I also think people look at how bad New Orleans' defense has been and how good Carolina's stop unit has played and just assume this will be a blowout. 

The thing is the Panthers offense has not looked good in their first two games. Carolina only managed 287 yards against the 49ers in Week 1, which looks a lot worse after what the Rams did to San Francisco on Thursday. They then could only manage 3 field goals against a Bills defense that was on the field all day. Another note from that game is Cam Newton was sacked 6 times and lost his favorite target in tight end Greg Olson for the season. 

I just don't think they are going to pick apart this New Orleans defense like a lot of people are saying. These are two division rivals that know each other well. At the same time, Brees and company can score on anybody and Carolina hasn't faced a passing attack this year any where close to the Saints, having gone up against Brian Hoyer and a Tyrod Taylor. 

Saints are 19-8 ATS in their last 27 as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 under head coach Sean Payton. They are also 15-6 ATS in 21 games under Payton after 2 straight losses. Carolina is also just 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 off a win, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 against division opponents. Take New Orleans! 

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NFL  |  Sep 24, 2017
Ravens vs. Jaguars
Jaguars
+3½ -115
  at  BOVADA
in 6h

The Ravens are drawing a lot of buzz after starting 2-0, but let's hold off on the coronation after beating two teams with major issues. Baltimore is a different team on the road and this is their first trip across the pond. This is Jacksonville's 5th trip so they are used to the travel patterns and I like this team. The Ravens O-line is decimated, and their offensive skill players haven't really impressed, just taking what their defense gives them. If the Jaguars can protect the ball -- a big if with Blake Bortles under center, I know -- their run game should dictate this matchup, especially with Ravens DT Brandon Williams out, and put them in a position to win. Take Jax PLUS THE PTS in this early Sunday morning kickoff.


 

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