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The College football comp play is on Air Force at 2:00 eastern. The fly boys have covered 12 of the last 15 at home and fit a solid system here today that plays on favorites in this range vs an opponent off 2 favored losses the last one by 10 or more like Hawaii. These favorites cover over 80% long term. The Rainbow Warriors were upset last week and now travel to the main land. They have failed to cover 6 of 7 vs winning teams and 10 of 12 off a conference loss. Look for Air force to emerge with a win and cover. On Saturday a massive college card takes center stage and is led by the Mountain West Conf. Game of the Year, afternoon and evening 5* Perfect system blowouts and the SEC Game of the Month. In MLB the Game 6 Historical League championship system is up too. We continue to rank #1 on several leader boards. Jump on now and Roll your book like wholesale carpet all day and night. For the College football free pick. Play on Air Force. RV
Ohio State is coming off a tough 30-23 overtime win at Wisconsin last week in which the Buckeyes were outgained 450-411 in total yards. Ohio State must now travel again and face a rested Penn State squad that is coming off their bye week after back-to-back home wins. Penn State has a solid 4-2 SU record this season with only one loss coming by more than three points. The Nittany Lions have a strong offense that is averaging 30.5 points per game and 5.9 yards per play (versus opponents that allow just 22.5 ppg and 4.8 yppl). The Nittany Lions also took Ohio State to overtime in a close 31-24 loss on this field two years ago.
On the Middies for homecoming off a bye week and with a win over Houston under their belt as well. Navy is ranked 25th in the country and this is a huge game for them. Memphis allowed 374 yards rushing last year to Navy and had serious issues beating Tulane last week as well. This is not the same Memphis team that rolls over everyone as in years past under a new coaching staff this year. No protection for the QB for the Tigers with a weak OL, and Navy has a very aggressive defense that kept QB Ward from Houston in check to some degree and we are catching points with a live dog at home here fully capable of winning this game by a TD +.
Navy will allow some points here but has an offense that can put up points (46 on a good Houston D) and QB Worth no joke at throwing the ball which is something new for Navy since all world QB Reynold graduated last year. Memphis 0-2 ATS on the road this year against a rested and prepared Navy team who won this game 45-20 last year on the road, and while it will be closer than that, give me the Middies!
Free Play on Navy +2.5 - Outright Win
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Fresno St. has just one win this season and that was against Sacramento St. of the FCS. The Bulldogs have been competitive a couple of other times however in five of their six FBS games, they have been outgained by 132, 365, 164, 133 and 147 total yards so it has hardly been pretty. They have just one road win over their last 10 trips on the highway and they are coming into a bad situation here. Utah St. was supposed to contend in the Mountain Division of the MWC but it has dropped its first three conference games including a loss as a favorite at Colorado St. in their last game. The Aggies are coming off a bye week so they will be extra motivated to get into the win column and pile it on for that matter. Additionally, they have won and covered six straight games when playing with two weeks of rest. They are 2-1 at home and the lone loss came against Air Force in a game could have won as they outgained the Falcons by 88 yards but lost the turnover battle 2-0. Going back, they are 16-2 in their last 18 home games and covering this number should be a non-issue. Fresno St. is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 road games and going back further, the Bulldogs are 4-16 ATS in their last 20 road games following a home loss. Utah St. meanwhile is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 home games after scoring 24 or more in the first half last game. Play (410) Utah St. Aggies
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10* graded play on Utah State as they take on Fresno State in NCAAF the action set to start at 10:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that USU will win this game by at least 21 points.
Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. FSU is an imperfect 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in road games when they allow 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons; 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) when they allow 500 or more total yards over the last 3 seasons; 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) when they are outgained by their opponents by 2 or more yards/play over the last 2 seasons; USU is a near-perfect 15-2 ATS (+12.8 Units) when they are outgain their opponents by 200 or more yards.
Fundamental Discussion Points This next matchup we head to Utah for a Mountain West matchup between Utah State Aggies and the Fresno State Bulldogs. Utah State sits at 2-4 and Fresno State at 1-6, both teams at the bottom of the Mountain West Conference. Although both of these teams are the bottom of the barrel in the Mountain West Utah St. is the better team. The Fresno State defense has given up 235 total points this year compared to Utah state who has just given up 150. Utah St. should have no problem at all moving the ball against this horrid Fresno State defense. Utah state averages a solid 5 yards per carry and their QB Kent Myers has a 60% completion percentage. Look for Utah state to move the ball well all game and cover the 16.5 point spread at home. Take Utah state at -16.5.
The TCU Horned Frogs are being undervalued because of their result the last time they took the field. They only beat Kansas 24-23 as 30.5-point road favorites. But for whatever reason, the Horned Frogs have struggled for three straight years to put away Kansas. I simply believe it's an aberration.
Head coach Gary Patterson had a bye last week to right some wrongs. He called out his players for not being tough enough, and I certainly believe these two weeks will work wonders for them in that department. Patterson will have his players ready to go Saturday. After all, his teams are 12-1 SU & 13-0 ATS in their last 13 games off a regular season bye week.
Conversely, West Virginia comes in overvalued after stomping Texas Tech 48-17 on the road as 3-point favorites last week. However, the Mountaineers were coming off a bye and were primed for a big performance. Now they'll be up against a team coming off a bye in TCU this week.
Also, the Mountaineers may be 5-0, but they haven't played anyone as good as TCU. Their four wins have come against Missouri, Youngstown State, BYU (by 3) and Kansas State (by 1). If both BYU and K-State can hang with the Mountaineers, the Horned Frogs certainly can as well.
TCU stomped West Virginia 40-10 at home last year as 12-point favorites. They outgained the Mountaineers by 289 total yards in that win. The three previous meetings went right down to the wire. All three were decided by 3 points or less, and two of them went to overtime. I really look for this game to go down to the wire as well, so there's a very good chance this 6.5-point spread comes into play.
The Horned Frogs are 7-0 ATS versus good rushing teams who average 200 or more rushing yards per game over the last three seasons. TCU is 7-0 ATS off a close win by 7 points or less over a conference opponent over the last three seasons. The Horned Frogs are 8-1 ATS off a road win over the last three years. The Mountaineers are 1-7 ATS in their last eight vs. a team with a winning record. Bet TCU Saturday.
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Uconn / Central Florida Under 48 1.1% Free Play (Now 7-1 ATS This Year on Free Play)
I like the under in this game between UCF and Connecticut. The under is 33-16-2 in UCF’s last 51 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. That’s the key as Central Florida is a run first team running it 61% of the time and 65% on the road. Central Florida does not trust their group of QB’s who have 1 TD and 2 INT’s on the road and that’s where Uconn has issues on their defense. If you can pass the ball well then you are a threat to score a lot of points against Uconn.
I think this sets up well for the under as well looking at the fact that both teams come off misleading totals in their last game. Uconn played South Florida and the score was 14-3 at the half, but the final ended up being 42-27 with a ton of points scored in the second half. Central Florida meanwhile played Temple last week and had 25 points despite only 296 yards of offense while going 2-12 on third down.
Both teams are very good in third down defense, and red zone defense which makes me feel comfortable that there will be a lot of field goals. Central Florida struggles to score points when they can’t run the ball. Sure they scored 53 and 47 on East Carolina and Florida International on the road, but both of those teams struggle stopping the run while Uconn is ranked 55th in adjusted run defense. Uconn has really only given up big rushing games to Navy, a challenge in itself and South Florida who has a top 10 rushing attack with a dual threat QB. Uconn even kept Houston’s attack in check.
The Key: Charlie Strong's defense finally lived up to its potential last week in a 27-6 win over Iowa State. The Longhorns held the Cyclones to just 280 yards of total offense in the win. Now they face another offensively-challenged team in the Kansas State Wildcats this week. The Wildcats have been held to 13 points by Stanford, to 16 by West Virginia and to 17 by Oklahoma. Not to mention, starting QB Jesse Ertz is banged up. But the Wildcats do have a great defense that is only giving up 21.0 points per game this season. Head-to-head history makes me really like this UNDER. The UNDER is 3-0 in the last 3 meetings with combined scores of 32, 23 and 52 points, respectively. Those 32 and 23-point efforts came the past two seasons. I look for this game to play out similarly. Take the UNDER.
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A lot of people are going to look at this line and think the books have made a mistake. While LSU has won and covered their last two games, I don’t think the public is ready to back them. At least not against a top level team like Ole Miss. While the Rebels are 3-3, their 3 losses have all been close. The public just isn’t going to trust the Tigers laying over a touchdown.
This one is all about the situation. Any hope that Ole Miss had of sneaking into the playoffs is gone with their loss last week to Arkansas. The Rebels have "ZERO" to play for down the stretch. That’s a tough pill to swallow for a team that had such high expectations. They also beat LSU 38-17 last year, so there’s no revenge angle for them to play.
As for the Tigers, this team has looked like a different animal since they fired Les Miles. LSU beat Missouri 42-7 as a mere 12-point favorite in their first game without Miles. They followed it up by taking care of business against Southern Miss, in a 35-point win. What’s scary is they did that without star running back Leonard Fournette. Who is expected to be back this week.
Keep in mind, this is a team that still has a shot at winning the SEC West. While the Tigers are 0-1 in league play, they still have Alabama and Texas A&M left to play.
The big problem with LSU under Miles was the offense not producing at the level expected. For whatever reason, it’s been clicking since he left. A big party of that is the play of Danny Etling at quarterback, who has replaced Brandon Harris. Etling is completing 58.8% of his attempts. Not great, but a big improvement over Harris at 52.0. He’s also averaging 7.8 yards/attempt compared to Harris at 5.6. With the way this team can run the ball, that’s all they need out of the QB position to torment opposing defenses.
An uninspired Ole Miss defense could be in for a long night. The Rebels come into this game ranked 104th in the country against the run, allowing 212.8 ypg. They also have had their issues against the pass, allowing 233.2 ypg (74th).
What gets overlooked with LSU and their struggling offense is how good the defense has played. The Tigers are the only team in the country to hold all of their opponents under 21 points. They also have allowed a FBS-low 6 touchdowns (best red zone defense in SEC). Clearly they have talent on hand to slow down this Ole Miss offense.
The other key factor here is when this game is being played. It’s one thing to go to Memorial Stadium for 3:30 afternoon kickoff. It’s a whole different beast when you play this team on their home field at night. Especially when it’s a nationally televised game like this one. Tigers are 8-1 ATS at home in Weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons. Take LSU!
*3 Star CFB Free Pick* The TCU Horned Frogs aren't a team I'm extremely high on for the year. Still, I like them in this spot. TCU won 24-23 over Kansas on the road in their last game. TCU was very fortunate to win that game. Gary Patterson was really disappointed with his team's effort in that game. TCU is coming off a bye week now, and I think TCU likely had two solid weeks of practice here.
West Virginia is starting to feel good about themselves. The Mountaineers are thinking about some lofty goals and are coming off a big win at Texas Tech. While West Virginia is better than I thought they would be this year, I think they still have a lot to prove. They haven't really beaten anyone very good this year.
Gary Patterson is a better coach than Dana Holgorsen. How about this statistic? TCU is a whopping 13-0 ATS in their last 13 games in the regular season when they had more than a week to prepare. They are 12-1 straight up in those 13 games. Basically, Patterson is great at getting his team ready when he has extra time to prepare.
I'll take TCU plus the points here.
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