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Tampa Bay is worth a look here as a short home favorite against the Orioles. We are getting some great value here due to the fact that the Rays have lost 5 straight, but 3 of those were 1-run defeats. I'll take my chances with Tampa Bay's Jacob Faria going up against Baltimore Wade Miley. Faria is 4-1 with a 2.52 ERA in 8 starts, while Miley owns a 5.58 ERA and 1.820 WHIP in 20 outings this season. He also comes in struggling, having allowed 12 runs on 16 hits and 8 walks in his last 2 starts (9 2/3 innings). Give me the Rays -114!
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This is the Yankees' first home game since July 9 following an 11-game road trip. They are hosting the lowly Reds. So you have to wonder just how focused the Yankees will be especially with a lot of young players on their roster. One of those youngsters is rookie pitcher Jordan Montgomery. He's facing another rookie starter in Luis Castillo. Montgomery is making his 19th start and showing signs of hitting that rookie wall. His ERA in his last three starts is 6.91. The Twins got to him for six runs in six innings during his previous start this past Wednesday. Castillo has made just six starts. His ERA is 3.86 compared to Montgomery's 4.09. I have a high regard for Castillo and his potential. He's struck out 43 in 35 innings. He's also faced much better hitting teams than Montgomery has. Castillo has made two starts against the Nationals, two against the Diamondbacks, one versus the Brewers and one against the Rockies at Coors Field. The Nationals are No. 2 in the league in runs. Colorado is No. 3. The Diamondbacks have scored the sixth-most runs. Only two teams have hit more homers than the Brewers. By contrast, Montgomery has faced four below average offenses during his past seven starts having gone against the Twins, White Sox, Angels and A's. The Yankees do hold a bullpen edge, but some of that advantage is reduced by how poorly closer Aroldis Chapman has been pitching. (Editor's note: Fresh off moving his unbeaten Canadian Football League record to 10-0 with a Game of the Year winner on Monday, Stephen Nover turns his full attention to the ball diamond today where in addition to this free selection he's found two powerful sides plays. Stephen is so strong on these two games that he's putting them out together as his Parlay of the Week.)
I like Detroit to even up there series with KC on Tueday. The Tigers are sending out Michael Fulmer, who has put together quite a 2-year resume, yet he doesn't get a lot of hype beacuse he doesn't strikeout a lot of guys. Fulmer has already reached double-digit wins and owns a 3.35 ERA in 19 starts. He did have a bad outing last time out in Kansas City, but prior that he had owned the Royals, giving up just 9 runs in his previous 5 starts against them.
KC will counter with Danny Duffy, who is a solid starter, but has not been nearly as good on the road with a 4.44 ERA and 1.397 WHIP in 8 starts. THe other key here is that Detroit has hit him hard of late, scoring 4 or more against them in 4 of his last 5 starts. Not a big surprise given how well the Tigers have hit left-handed pitching. They are scoring 5.6 runs/game against lefties, compared to 4.9 overall. Take Detroit!
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The Pittsburgh Pirates have fought their way back to .500 on the season and in serious contention in the NL Central race. They have gone 13-4 in their last 17 games overall to really show a lot of fight around the All-Star Break.
This turnaround happened essentially when Jameson Taillon returned from cancer. This team has been inspired by Taillon, who is 6-3 with a 3.08 ERA in 13 starts, including 3-1 with a 2.31 ERA in six road starts.
Madison Bumgarner just returned from the disabled list 10 days ago and hasn't been very effective. He has gone 0-1 with a 4.73 ERA in his two starts since returning, giving up 7 earned runs and 4 homers in 13 1/3 innings, facing the lowly San Diego Padres in both of those starts.
Bumgarner is 0-6 (-9.6 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -110 or higher this season. The Pirates are 11-2 in Taillon's last 13 starts with 4 days of rest. The Giants are 0-6 in Bumgarner's last six starts. San Francisco is 18-37 in its last 55 games overall. Bet the Pirates Tuesday.
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The Toronto Blue Jays are in need of an impressive homestand if they wish to escape the cellar of the American League East and entertain any realistic thoughts of a third straight postseason appearance. After taking the first step in the opener, the Blue Jays look to even their home record after 48 contests on Tuesday when they continue their four-game set versus the Oakland Athletics.
PITCHING MATCHUP: Athletics RH Sonny Gray (6-4, 3.66 ERA) vs. Blue Jays RH Cesar Valdez (0-0, 6.05)
Gray has won three straight starts and improved to 4-1 with a 1.62 ERA and 0.72 WHIP in his last five after another dominating performance on Wednesday. The 27-year-old allowed two runs in 6 1/3 innings in a 7-2 victory over Tampa Bay, with six strikeouts in that contest raising his total to 27 in his last 33 1/3 innings. While Gray has struggled against Donaldson and Bautista, he has flustered Justin Smoak (1-for-17, eight strikeouts) and Kendrys Morales (2-for-15).
Valdez is slated to make his first start for Toronto after Aaron Sanchez found himself back on the disabled list for the fourth time this season. The 32-year-old Dominican has made four appearances with the Blue Jays since being acquired from Oakland, although he allowed one run on four hits in 1 2/3 innings of Friday's 13-3 loss at Cleveland. The performance came two days after he worked four innings of scoreless relief following a recall from Triple-A Buffalo.
Athletics are 9-3 in their last 12 games vs. a right-handed starter. Athletics are 4-1 in Grays last 5 starts. Blue Jays are 1-7 in their last 8 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game. Road team is 5-1 in Timmons' last 6 games behind home plate.
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