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NFL  |  Oct 22, 2017
Seahawks vs. Giants
Seahawks
-3½ -110
  at  5DIMES
in 17h

10* FREE NFL PICK (Seahawks -3.5) 

The fact that the Giants dominated on the scoreboard, winning by 13 as a 13.5-point dog will have a lot of people second-guessing themselves when it comes to whether or not they should fade them again this week.

On top of that, the Seahawks haven’t exactly looked great so far, despite the fact that they are 3-2. I believe it’s actually created some value here on Seattle, as I think they have no problem winning by at least a touchdown in New York.

I believe the Giants caught the Broncos off guard, as a lot of people just thought this team would lay down after they lost both Odell Beckham Jr and Brandon Marshall. New York instead turned to their running game, rushing it a season-high 32 times. They piled on 148 yards against a Denver run defense that had been outstanding, which only strengthens my thought process that the Broncos just didn’t show up with the right mentality.

That’s not going to be the case with Seattle, who now has a good idea of what to expect from this new-look Giants offense. The Seahawks have routinely had one of the best defenses in the NFL and with the talent they have in the secondary, they will be able to load the box and take away that running game.

Another key factor here is that the Seahawks have a big scheduling advantage coming off their bye. That extra week to prepare and recharge the mind and body is huge this time of year. Not to mention the Seahawks have historically been a team that starts slow and turns it on about this time under Pete Carroll.

New York is also just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 after a straight up win and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 after holding their previous opponent under 90 yards rushing. Seattle is 50-33 ATS after the first month of the season since Carroll took over as head coach and 10-4 against teams from the NFC East. Give me the Seahawks -3.5! 

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NFL  |  Oct 22, 2017
Cardinals vs. Rams
UNDER
47½ -110
  at  BETONLINE
in 14h

Free Pick on Rams/Cardinals UNDER

I think we get another defensive battle in London with the Rams and Cardinals. These two NFC West rivals combined for 50 in the final meeting last year, but that was all Arizona in a 44-6 win. The previous six meetings all finished with 46 or fewer points and I look for it to return to form here. 

The Rams got people excited about their offense early, but they put up big numbers against bad defenses. I know the Cardinals have allowed 30+ in each of their last two games, but they had the Bucs held to just 6 points last week before taking their foot off the gas in the 4th quarter. A mistake they won't make again after letting it get too close at the end. 

The other key here is the Rams are starting to play up to their potential on defense. It started in the 2nd half against Dallas when new DC Wade Phillips moved a couple rookies into the starting lineup. They have been lights out since and I think they make life miserable for the Cardinals in this one. 

UNDER is 9-3 in the Rams last 12 games against division opponents and 11-5 in their last 16 off a win. It's also 7-3 in the Cardinals east 10 against the NFC West and 4-1 in their last 5 after giving up 30+ points. Take the UNDER! 

NFL  |  Oct 22, 2017
Panthers vs. Bears
Bears
+3 +110
  at  BOVADA
in 14h

Rating: 2 Unit NFL Free Pick

Chicago rookie QB Mitchell Trubisky had an encouraging debut and has gotten the Bears  a pair of ATS covers and an upset win at Baltimore in his two starts. Additionally John Fox has been covering spreads with a bunch of different QBs (Jay Cutler, Brian Hoyer, Matt Barkley, Glennon, and Trubisky) while posting a 7-1-1 home underdog record since a year ago. That ATS log will continue as long as running back Jordan Howard (167 yards rushing vs. Ravens) has a good game and can remove pressure from Trubisky. Although Carolina is 3-0 on road some of Cam’s bad habits with 3 interceptions reared their ugly head vs. Eagles, and Panthers haven't had an easy win since their opener versus San Francisco.


 

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