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I'm backing the Wolfpack at basically a pick'em at home against the Demon Deacons on Saturday. NC State is a 11-1 at home this season and fresh off a 79-74 win at home against Pitt as a mere 3-point favorite. Wake Forest is getting a lot of respect here off a 96-79 win at home over Miami (FL), but are just 2-4 in ACC play. They have lost 3 straight on the road with the last two coming by 15+ points. Demon Deacons are just 5-14 ATS in their last 19 off a SU win and 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 as a dog of 6.5 or less. NC State is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 at home and 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite of 6.5 or less. Give me NC State -1!
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Going to lay the short number on the road here, as Ball St is avenging a home loss to BG after a bad night of shooting in that game. Bowling Green is 7-20-1 ATS their last 28 home games which is just deplorable. Ball State's offense had a bad night in their last meeting, but in their last 5 games Ball State has averaged a whopping 87 ppg, 20 points ppg better than Bowling Green's offense in that same time frame, and Ball St has stat edges in every key category here in this match-up. Since the loss to Bowling Green, Ball State has ripped off 3 straight wins, all by double Digits! Revenge is sweet, lay the short number.
Free Play on Ball State
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The Key: The UCLA Bruins are 19-1 and legitimately one of the best teams in college basketball. They haven't even been tested at home this season, and their only loss came on a buzzer-beater at Oregon, which is also one of the top teams in the land. The Bruins are 11-0 at home this season, scoring 98.1 points and giving up 73.5 points per game. This will be the best team that Arizona has faced this year. The Bruins upset the Wildcats 87-84 as 3-point home dogs last season, and they weren't very good last year. UCLA is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. The underdog is 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings. The Bruins are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Take UCLA.
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Utah is off a blowout victory at Washington St. on Thursday as it bounced back from a one-point loss to UCLA at home last Saturday. The Utes should have no problem backing up that win with another one this Saturday as they look to remain in fourth place in the Pac 12. 13 players saw the floor for the Utes on Thursday so there is no issue with fatigue or any sort of letdown. Washington is coming off a big victory against Colorado on Thursday as the Huskies defeated the Buffaloes by a bucket in overtime as they came back from a 17-point second half deficit. Washington is still just 2-4 in the conference as the only other victory came against 0-6 and 4-15 Oregon St. The Huskies are an average team at home with a 7-4 record and they failed to win or cover in their only other game as a home underdog. On the season, Washington is 0-6 straight up and 1-5 ATS as an underdog and going back, the Huskies are 0-4 ATS in their last four games as a home underdog. Meanwhile, the Utes are 6-0 ATS in their last six games as a favorite of fewer than seven points. Play (661) Utah Utes
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I look at Colorado and Washington State like evenly-matched teams. The Buffaloes are 10-9 this season, while the Cougars are 9-9. That's why I see a ton of value here in getting the Cougars as 5-point home underdogs in a game they should probably be favored in.
Colorado has been an overvalued commodity all season, especially here of late. The Buffaloes have lost six straight games coming in while going 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine games overall. They are 0-6 in Pac-12 play this year despite being the favorite in two of those contests.
Washington State has at least gone 2-4 in Pac-12 action with a road win at Washington as 12.5-point dogs and a home win over Oregon State by 13 as 4-point favorites. The last four games have been very tough with home losses to Oregon and Utah, and road losses to Stanford and Cal.
Colorado is just 2-5 in true road games this season with its only wins at Air Force and Portland. The Buffaloes are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 road games off a road cover where they lost straight up as an underdog. Washington State is 29-14 ATS in its last 43 home games after having lost four of its last five games coming in. Bet Washington State Saturday.
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